• 2025
• Working Paper

How does economic globalization affect vote choices? Conventional wisdom holds that voters who lose from economic integration support parties that propose expanding the welfare state. However, in the Global South, where the state is frequently weak or under-resourced, people often turn to non-state organizations (such as churches) for protection against economic decline. I argue that, in these contexts, negative globalization shocks increase local communities’ dependence on non-state organizations, thereby making the leaders within such organizations more effective political brokers. To test this argument, I propose a shift-share instrument that measures the exposure of Brazilian local labor markets to exogenous changes in exports. By matching this instrument with electoral and survey data, I provide evidence that declining exports increased the power of evangelical leaders to persuade their congregations to vote against parties that favor welfare-state expansion. My findings help explain and describe the contingencies underlying the political consequences of globalization.

• February 13, 2025
• Article

When tariffs are levied against a specific country, that country might attempt to circumvent the tariff by rerouting products through a third country to avoid the higher taxes. Research in the aftermath of the 2018 U.S.-China trade war examined this phenomenon, finding that, while tariff circumvention through Vietnam did happen, it wasn’t as widespread as many had initially thought. That said, there still was an increase in tariff circumvention more broadly, and specifically via Chinese-owned firms in Vietnam. The findings suggest that if a country is considering implementing tariffs, a better approach might involve ownership-based duties or firm-specific sanctions instead of blanket tariffs.

• 2025
• Book

Your guide--using the compelling stories of changemakers and the tools of economics--to the transformation and future possibilities of the business and economics of space. Space is a place of unparalleled possibility for humanity, and it's undergoing a revolution. A wave of companies led by gutsy entrepreneurs is unlocking opportunities that fire the imagination and open up new business models. No, it's not hotels on Mars or day trips to orbit (yet), but it's an awe-inspiring transformation driven by innovative technologies, creative approaches, hard work, and--for the first time--market forces. Above all, this revolution is uncovering the simple but unfamiliar truth that space is a place: a place where countries, markets, and each of us can play a vital role in realizing some of our biggest, boldest dreams. But we won't succeed through dreams alone. The space economy is just that--an economy--governed by the same laws of supply and demand that apply here on Earth. We bring the revolution in space to life through players you know--like SpaceX and Blue Origin--and many you may not, like Astroscale, founded by a Japanese IT executive who quit his job to start a company to clean up space debris. We also bring to bear fundamental tools from economics to understand how the market in space is forming, how it's fast becoming a source of value for businesses across industries and for society as a whole, and how we can best ensure that its growth benefits us all. With clarity and rigor, we get past the breathless hype to explain what’s real, what's not, what comes next, and how you can be part of it.