Business, Government & the International Economy
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- 2025
- Working Paper
Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs
By: Alberto Cavallo, Paola Llamas and Franco VazquezThis paper examines the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices using a unique integration of high-frequency retail pricing data, product-level country-of-origin information, and detailed tariff classifications. By linking daily prices from major U.S. retailers to Harmonized System (HS) codes and import origins, we construct custom price indices that isolate the direct effects of tariff changes across product categories and trading partners. Our analysis reveals rapid pricing responses, though their magnitude remains modest relative to the announced tariff rates and varies by country of origin. Both imported and domestic goods are affected, suggesting broader pricing and supply chain spillovers. These findings offer timely evidence for policymakers, businesses, and consumers navigating the immediate consequences of trade policy changes.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs
By: Alberto Cavallo, Paola Llamas and Franco VazquezThis paper examines the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices using a unique integration of high-frequency retail pricing data, product-level country-of-origin information, and detailed tariff classifications. By linking daily prices from major U.S. retailers to Harmonized System (HS) codes and import origins, we construct...
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- 2025
- Working Paper
Extractive Taxation and the French Revolution
By: Tommaso Giommoni, Gabriel Loumeau and Marco TabelliniWe study the fiscal determinants of the French Revolution, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the salt tax—a large source of royal revenues and one of the most extractive forms of taxation of the Ancien Régime. Implementing a Regression Discontinuity design (RDD), we find that parts of France subject to a higher salt tax experienced more revolts against the monarchy between 1750 and 1789. These effects already appear in the 1760s, but become stronger over time and peak in the 1780s. Combining the RD model with variation in local weather conditions during the 1780s, we document that droughts amplify the effects of the salt tax on revolts by increasing wheat prices and activating latent discontent. Then, we connect the discontent generated by the salt tax to the French Revolution. First, we provide evidence that riots spread across space through a process of contagion that is stronger in high tax areas. Second, we show that areas burdened by a higher salt tax report more complaints against the salt tax in the list of grievances collected by the king in the spring of 1789. Third, we document that legislators representing areas with a higher salt tax are more likely to demand the end of the monarchy and to support the death penalty for the king.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Extractive Taxation and the French Revolution
By: Tommaso Giommoni, Gabriel Loumeau and Marco TabelliniWe study the fiscal determinants of the French Revolution, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the salt tax—a large source of royal revenues and one of the most extractive forms of taxation of the Ancien Régime. Implementing a Regression Discontinuity design (RDD), we find that parts of France subject to a higher salt tax experienced more...
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About the Unit
The BGIE Unit conducts research on, and teaches about, the economic, political, social, and legal environment in which business operates. The Unit includes scholars trained in economics, political science, and history; in its work, it draws on perspectives from all three of these disciplines.
The following demonstrates one way of classifying the approaches the Unit takes to learning and teaching.
- The Unit examines the “rules” and policies established by government and other non-business institutions that affect business in the United States.
- The Unit turns to history to understand the origins of today’s business environment as well as some of the alternatives that have emerged from time to time.
- The Unit examines other countries’ business environments and their historical development.
- The BGIE group is deeply interested in the impact of globalization and the way rules are emerging to govern international economic transactions as globalization proceeds.
Recent Publications
High Stakes: A Framework for Geopolitical Risk Management
- 2025 |
- Report |
- Faculty Research
Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs
- 2025 |
- Working Paper |
- Faculty Research
Extractive Taxation and the French Revolution
- 2025 |
- Working Paper |
- Faculty Research
Peru: 'A Beggar Perched on a Throne of Gold'
- March 2025 |
- Case |
- Faculty Research
Methane Abatement Costs in the Oil and Gas Industry: Survey and Synthesis
- 2025 |
- Working Paper |
- Faculty Research
Lebanon: Splintering Cedar
- February 2025 |
- Case |
- Faculty Research
Harvard Business Publishing
Seminars & Conferences
There are no upcoming events.