Business, Government & the International Economy

- 2025
- Working Paper
Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs

By: Alberto Cavallo, Paola Llamas and Franco Vazquez

This paper examines the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices using a unique integration of high-frequency retail pricing data, product-level country-of-origin information, and detailed tariff classifications. By linking daily prices from major U.S. retailers to Harmonized System (HS) codes and import origins, we construct custom price indices that isolate the direct effects of tariff changes across product categories and trading partners. Our analysis reveals rapid pricing responses, though their magnitude remains modest relative to the announced tariff rates and varies by country of origin. Both imported and domestic goods are affected, suggesting broader pricing and supply chain spillovers. These findings offer timely evidence for policymakers, businesses, and consumers navigating the immediate consequences of trade policy changes.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs

By: Alberto Cavallo, Paola Llamas and Franco Vazquez

This paper examines the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices using a unique integration of high-frequency retail pricing data, product-level country-of-origin information, and detailed tariff classifications. By linking daily prices from major U.S. retailers to Harmonized System (HS) codes and import origins, we construct...
- 2025
- Working Paper
Extractive Taxation and the French Revolution

By: Tommaso Giommoni, Gabriel Loumeau and Marco Tabellini

We study the fiscal determinants of the French Revolution, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the salt tax—a large source of royal revenues and one of the most extractive forms of taxation of the Ancien Régime. Implementing a Regression Discontinuity design (RDD), we find that parts of France subject to a higher salt tax experienced more revolts against the monarchy between 1750 and 1789. These effects already appear in the 1760s, but become stronger over time and peak in the 1780s. Combining the RD model with variation in local weather conditions during the 1780s, we document that droughts amplify the effects of the salt tax on revolts by increasing wheat prices and activating latent discontent. Then, we connect the discontent generated by the salt tax to the French Revolution. First, we provide evidence that riots spread across space through a process of contagion that is stronger in high tax areas. Second, we show that areas burdened by a higher salt tax report more complaints against the salt tax in the list of grievances collected by the king in the spring of 1789. Third, we document that legislators representing areas with a higher salt tax are more likely to demand the end of the monarchy and to support the death penalty for the king.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Extractive Taxation and the French Revolution

By: Tommaso Giommoni, Gabriel Loumeau and Marco Tabellini

We study the fiscal determinants of the French Revolution, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the salt tax—a large source of royal revenues and one of the most extractive forms of taxation of the Ancien Régime. Implementing a Regression Discontinuity design (RDD), we find that parts of France subject to a higher salt tax experienced more...
- March 2025
- Case
Venezuela: The Rise and Fall of Chavism

By: Natalia Garbiras-Diaz
- March 2025
- Case
Venezuela: The Rise and Fall of Chavism

By: Natalia Garbiras-Diaz

About the Unit

The BGIE Unit conducts research on, and teaches about, the economic, political, social, and legal environment in which business operates. The Unit includes scholars trained in economics, political science, and history; in its work, it draws on perspectives from all three of these disciplines.

The following demonstrates one way of classifying the approaches the Unit takes to learning and teaching.

The Unit examines the “rules” and policies established by government and other non-business institutions that affect business in the United States.
The Unit turns to history to understand the origins of today’s business environment as well as some of the alternatives that have emerged from time to time.
The Unit examines other countries’ business environments and their historical development.
The BGIE group is deeply interested in the impact of globalization and the way rules are emerging to govern international economic transactions as globalization proceeds.

Recent Publications

High Stakes: A Framework for Geopolitical Risk Management

By: Meg Rithmire and David Fagan

2025 |
Report |
Faculty Research

This report provides a data-based assessment of how U.S. companies perceive geopolitical risk and articulates a recommended decision-making process and framework to manage such risk. The research reflected in the report indicates that various concerns related to China are most prominent in reshaping the global business landscape and the presentation of risk for U.S. companies. The primary source of risk for businesses is the transformation of China’s political economy under the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to focus on security, to which the U.S. has responded with enhanced laws and regulations, as well as rhetorical instruments (such as Congressional statements) that can heighten reputational risk for businesses. Our recommendations are that companies exposed to China and US-China competition adopt a governance framework that is well-informed, holistic, enduring, authoritative, and tailored to review strategic and national security risks in a structured way.

Keywords: Globalization; International Relations; Business or Company Management; Risk Management

Citation

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Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs

By: Alberto Cavallo, Paola Llamas and Franco Vazquez

2025 |
Working Paper |
Faculty Research

This paper examines the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices using a unique integration of high-frequency retail pricing data, product-level country-of-origin information, and detailed tariff classifications. By linking daily prices from major U.S. retailers to Harmonized System (HS) codes and import origins, we construct custom price indices that isolate the direct effects of tariff changes across product categories and trading partners. Our analysis reveals rapid pricing responses, though their magnitude remains modest relative to the announced tariff rates and varies by country of origin. Both imported and domestic goods are affected, suggesting broader pricing and supply chain spillovers. These findings offer timely evidence for policymakers, businesses, and consumers navigating the immediate consequences of trade policy changes.

Keywords: Tariffs; Trade; Price; Inflation and Deflation

Citation

Read Now

Extractive Taxation and the French Revolution

By: Tommaso Giommoni, Gabriel Loumeau and Marco Tabellini

2025 |
Working Paper |
Faculty Research

We study the fiscal determinants of the French Revolution, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the salt tax—a large source of royal revenues and one of the most extractive forms of taxation of the Ancien Régime. Implementing a Regression Discontinuity design (RDD), we find that parts of France subject to a higher salt tax experienced more revolts against the monarchy between 1750 and 1789. These effects already appear in the 1760s, but become stronger over time and peak in the 1780s. Combining the RD model with variation in local weather conditions during the 1780s, we document that droughts amplify the effects of the salt tax on revolts by increasing wheat prices and activating latent discontent. Then, we connect the discontent generated by the salt tax to the French Revolution. First, we provide evidence that riots spread across space through a process of contagion that is stronger in high tax areas. Second, we show that areas burdened by a higher salt tax report more complaints against the salt tax in the list of grievances collected by the king in the spring of 1789. Third, we document that legislators representing areas with a higher salt tax are more likely to demand the end of the monarchy and to support the death penalty for the king.

Keywords: Extractive Taxation; Regime Change; French Revolution; State Capacity; Taxation; History; Government Administration; Attitudes; Public Opinion

Citation

Read Now

Venezuela: The Rise and Fall of Chavism

By: Natalia Garbiras-Diaz

March 2025 |
Case |
Faculty Research

Keywords: Venezuela

Citation

Educators

Peru: 'A Beggar Perched on a Throne of Gold'

By: Sophus A. Reinert and Jonathan Schlefer

March 2025 |
Case |
Faculty Research

Citation

Educators

Methane Abatement Costs in the Oil and Gas Industry: Survey and Synthesis

By: Joseph E. Aldy, Forest Reinhardt and Robert N. Stavins

2025 |
Working Paper |
Faculty Research

There is growing recognition of the relative importance of anthropogenic emissions of methane as a contributor to global climate change. An important source of such emissions in some countries, including the United States, is the oil and gas (O&G) sector. This points to the importance of developing understanding of the marginal abatement cost functions for methane emissions reductions. Scholars have employed a diverse set of methodologies to estimate abatement costs, including engineering cost models, econometric analysis of natural gas markets, and statistical retrospective analysis of state-level regulation. We critically summarize these approaches and synthesize their results. We find significant potential for low-cost methane abatement in the O&G sector in the United States and elsewhere, although claims of widespread negative abatement cost opportunities should be taken with a grain of salt. We also find that the potential for low-cost abatement is not without limit. Whereas it appears that cutting methane emissions in half would be relatively inexpensive, a sharp uptick in marginal abatement cost may occur when reductions exceed 60 to 80 percent below baseline levels. This threshold may change over time with technological advances in remote sensing, which can reduce abatement costs at various levels of ambition.

Keywords: Emission Reduction; Environmental Sustainability; Climate Change; Pollutants; Energy Industry

Citation

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