Publications

2025
Working Paper

A Cognitive Theory of Reasoning and Choice

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Giacomo Lanzani and Andrei Shleifer

We present a theory of decisions in which attention to the features of choice options is determined by the decision maker's categorization of the current choice problem in a set of problems she solved in the past. Categorization depends on goal-relevant as well as... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Decision Choices and Conditions

2024
Working Paper

Finance Without Exotic Risk

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta and Andrei Shleifer

We address the joint hypothesis problem in cross-sectional asset pricing by using measured analyst expectations of earnings growth. We construct a firm-level measure of Expectations Based Returns (EBRs) that uses analyst forecast errors and revisions and shuts down any... View Details

Keywords: Investment Return; Financial Markets; Behavioral Finance; Risk and Uncertainty

2024
Working Paper

How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues

By: Nicola Gennaioli, Marta Leva, Raphael Schoenle and Andrei Shleifer

In a model of memory and selective recall, household inflation expectations remain rigid when inflation is anchored but exhibit sharp instability during inflation surges, as similarity prompts retrieval of forgotten high-inflation experiences. Using data from the New... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Inflation and Deflation; Personal Finance

2024
Working Paper

Webmunk: A New Tool for Studying Online Behavior and Digital Platforms

By: Chiara Farronato, Andrey Fradkin and Chris Karr

Understanding the behavior of users online is important for researchers, policymakers, and private companies alike. But observing online behavior and conducting experiments is difficult without direct access to the user base and software of technology companies. We... View Details

Keywords: Policy; Technology Adoption; Behavior; Research; Consumer Behavior; Internet and the Web

2024
Working Paper

What Makes Players Pay? An Empirical Investigation of In-Game Lotteries

By: Tomomichi Amano and Andrey Simonov

In 2020, gamers spent more than $15 billion on loot boxes, lotteries of virtual items in video games. Paid loot boxes are contentious. Game producers argue that loot boxes complement the gameplay and expenditures on loot boxes reflect players’ enjoyment of the game.... View Details

Keywords: Consumer Behavior; Policy; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Product Design; Ethics; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Video Game Industry

February 15, 2024
Article

What Does Banning Short-Term Rentals Really Accomplish?

By: Sophie Calder-Wang, Chiara Farronato and Andrey Fradkin

Concerns that short-term rentals fueled by platforms like Airbnb have caused long-term rents to rise in major cities has caused some governments to place limits, including bans, on them. But research of New York City found that short-term rentals are not the biggest... View Details

Keywords: Renting or Rental; Price; Policy; New York (city, NY)

January 11, 2024
Article

Understanding the Tradeoffs of the Amazon Antitrust Case

By: Chiara Farronato, Andrey Fradkin, Andrei Hagiu and Dionne Lomax

Regulators in the United States and Europe have been taking on Big Tech, challenging what they say are the companies’ anti-competitive and predatory strategies that harm consumers and third-party users of their platforms. This article examines the FTC’s case against... View Details

Keywords: Monopoly; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Market Design; Lawsuits and Litigation

2023
Working Paper

How People Use Statistics

By: Pedro Bordalo, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the problem. We offer a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Microeconomics; Mathematical Methods; Behavioral Finance

Purchase

May 2023
Article

Self-Preferencing at Amazon: Evidence from Search Rankings

By: Chiara Farronato, Andrey Fradkin and Alexander MacKay

We study whether Amazon engages in self-preferencing on its marketplace by favoring its own brands (e.g., Amazon Basics) in search. To address this question, we collect new micro-level consumer search data using a custom browser extension installed by a panel of study... View Details

Keywords: Consumer Behavior; E-commerce; Product Positioning; Brands and Branding

Purchase

2022
Working Paper

Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges... View Details

Keywords: Overreaction; Rational Expectations; Macroeconomics; Market Participation; Social Psychology

September 2021
Article

Diagnostic Bubbles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Speculation; Diagnostic Expectations; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods

2021
Working Paper

Salience

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

We review the fast-growing work on salience and economic behavior. Psychological research shows that salient stimuli attract human attention “bottom up” due to their high contrast with surroundings, their surprising nature relative to recalled experiences, or their... View Details

Keywords: Salience; Economic Behavior; Bottom Up Attention; Microeconomics; Decision Making; Behavior

Article

Memory and Representativeness

By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, Frederik Schwerter and Andrei Shleifer

We explore the idea that judgment by representativeness reflects the workings of episodic memory, especially interference. In a new laboratory experiment on cued recall, participants are shown two groups of images with different distributions of colors. We find that i)... View Details

Keywords: Cued Recall; Interference; Similarity; Probabilistic Judgments; Heuristics And Biases

March 2019
Article

Beliefs about Gender

By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

We conduct laboratory experiments that explore how gender stereotypes shape beliefs about ability of oneself and others in different categories of knowledge. The data reveal two patterns. First, men’s and women’s beliefs about both oneself and others exceed observed... View Details

Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Perspective; Prejudice and Bias; Gender

January 2019
Article

Bubbles for Fama

By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You

We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction

2018
Working Paper

Diagnostic Bubbles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

Keywords: Bubbles; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods