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      • Faculty Publications  (642)

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      • May 2025
      • Article

      Punitive but Discerning: Reputation Can Fuel Ambiguously-Deserved Punishment, but Does Not Erode Sensitivity to Nuance

      By: Jillian J. Jordan and Nour S. Kteily
      The desire to appear virtuous can motivate people to punish wrongdoers, a desirable outcome when punishment is clearly deserved. Yet claims that “virtue signaling” is fueling a culture of outrage suggest that reputation concerns may inspire even potentially unmerited... View Details
      Keywords: Outrage; Signaling; Ideology; Moralistic Punishment; Reputation; Moral Sensibility
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      Jordan, Jillian J., and Nour S. Kteily. "Punitive but Discerning: Reputation Can Fuel Ambiguously-Deserved Punishment, but Does Not Erode Sensitivity to Nuance." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 128, no. 5 (May 2025): 1072–1102.
      • Summer 2025
      • Article

      Does Marriage Have a Future?

      By: Debora L. Spar and Aryanna Garber
      The article explores how technology is reshaping the institution of marriage, highlighting significant changes in societal norms and personal relationships. It discusses the decline in marriage rates in industrialized nations, particularly Japan and the United States,... View Details
      Keywords: Family and Family Relationships; Technology Adoption; Society; Transformation; Emotions
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      Spar, Debora L., and Aryanna Garber. "Does Marriage Have a Future?" New Atlantis: A Journal of Technology & Society 81 (Summer 2025): 20–33.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Heterogeneous Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations

      By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
      This paper examines the role of heterogeneous investor beliefs in explaining stock market puzzles. Using survey data, we show that individual investors and investment professionals, such as equity analysts and strategists, form distinct beliefs. These groups rely on... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Markets; Valuation; Stocks; Asset Pricing; Investment; Behavioral Finance
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      McCarthy, Odhrain, and Sebastian Hillenbrand. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations." Working Paper, June 2025. (WFA Brattle Group Ph.D. Award for Outstanding Research.)
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows

      By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
      We address two inconvenient facts in asset pricing: (i) valuation ratios are often more related to future cash flows than to returns, and (ii) they mostly fail to predict returns. We show that these issues arise because stock prices are scaled by cash flows that... View Details
      Keywords: Cash Flow; Volatility; Investment Return; Asset Pricing; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation; Stocks
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      Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows." Working Paper, June 2025.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing

      By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
      To address the excess volatility puzzle – the excessive movements in stock prices – researchers often study movements in valuation ratios. However, we demonstrate that movements in valuation ratios based on fundamental measures with high transitory volatility, such as... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Return; Asset Pricing; Valuation; Measurement and Metrics; Stocks
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      Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing." Working Paper, June 2025.
      • May 2025
      • Case

      'Net Zero in Action': Impact Investing at the McKnight Foundation

      By: Lauren Cohen, Christina R. Wing and Sophia Pan
      Elizabeth McGeveran, Vice President of Investments at the McKnight Foundation, reflected on how to effectively advance the organization’s net-zero strategy. The foundation had committed 10% of its endowment to building a portfolio of impact investments and was among... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Fund; Philanthropy; Charitable Donations; Sustainability; Foundation; Impact Investing; ESG; Family Business; Forecasting and Prediction; Private Sector; Renewable Energy; Social Entrepreneurship; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Green Technology; Financial Strategy; Investment Funds; Investment Portfolio; Institutional Investing; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Private Ownership; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Social Issues; Sustainable Cities; Financial Services Industry; Minnesota; United States
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      Cohen, Lauren, Christina R. Wing, and Sophia Pan. "'Net Zero in Action': Impact Investing at the McKnight Foundation." Harvard Business School Case 225-095, May 2025.
      • 2024
      • Case

      EPCorp: Convincing the C-Suite

      By: Jacob M. Cook
      In EPCorp: Convincing the C-Suite, Shivani Bahl is attempting to sell EPCorp's CEO, Debbie Sullivan, on her ideas for not only a new website upgrade but also a more expansive vision on how data and Generative AI can be used to grow the company. Debbie is understandably... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; E-commerce; Growth and Development Strategy
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      Cook, Jacob M. "EPCorp: Convincing the C-Suite." Harvard Business Publishing Case, 2024. (Quick Case.)
      • May 2025
      • Article

      Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? Motivated by survey data on beliefs about Covid we collected in 2020, we build a model based on the psychology of selective memory. When a person thinks about an event,... View Details
      Keywords: Expectations; Memory; COVID-19 Pandemic; Risk and Uncertainty; Cognition and Thinking
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs." Review of Economic Studies 92, no. 3 (May 2025): 1532–1563.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      The Limits of Insurance Demand and the Growing Protection Gap

      By: Parinitha Sastry, Tess Scharlemann, Ishita Sen and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva
      In a world with rising risk, how much are U.S. households willing to pay for homeowners insurance, and what does their demand imply for the future of insurance markets? We provide the first estimates of household willingness to pay for homeowners insurance and the... View Details
      Keywords: Climate Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Insurance; Personal Finance; Consumer Behavior; Mortgages
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      Sastry, Parinitha, Tess Scharlemann, Ishita Sen, and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva. "The Limits of Insurance Demand and the Growing Protection Gap." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-054, February 2025.
      • April 2025 (Revised May 2025)
      • Background Note

      Customer Acquisition and the Cash Flow Trap

      By: E. Ofek, Barak Libai and Eitan Muller
      Startups as well as existing firms recognize the need to invest in order to acquire customers for their new ventures. And as each customer is expected at some point to have generated sufficient gross margins to cover their CAC, management expects that, soon enough, the... View Details
      Keywords: Business Model; Customers; Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Business or Company Management
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      Ofek, E., Barak Libai, and Eitan Muller. "Customer Acquisition and the Cash Flow Trap." Harvard Business School Background Note 525-056, April 2025. (Revised May 2025.)
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Navigating Choppy Waters: How U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Affects Small Businesses

      By: David Atkin, Zoë Cullen and Ebehi Iyoha
      This paper explores the impact of recent changes in the US trade policy environment on small businesses. Drawing on a survey of more than 4,000 small businesses conducted between March 22 and 31, 2025, we examine firms’ knowledge, expectations, and decisions during... View Details
      Keywords: Trade; Risk and Uncertainty; Government Legislation; Globalization; International Relations; Small Business
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      Atkin, David, Zoë Cullen, and Ebehi Iyoha. "Navigating Choppy Waters: How U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Affects Small Businesses." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-048, April 2025.
      • April 2025
      • Article

      The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates

      By: Sebastian Hillenbrand
      In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the... View Details
      Keywords: United States Treasury; Monetary Policy; Yield Curve; Bonds; Financial Markets; Government Administration; Valuation; Interest Rates; United States
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      Hillenbrand, Sebastian. "The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates." Review of Financial Studies 38, no. 4 (April 2025): 981–1013. (Editor's Choice.)
      • March 2025
      • Case

      YouTube: Bidding for NFL Sunday Ticket

      By: Anita Elberse and Crystal Yao
      In December 2022, Erin Teague, a senior director and the global head of sports, movies and shows at YouTube, technology giant Alphabet Inc.’s video- sharing platform, received the news that Sundar Pichai, the chief executive officer of Alphabet and its subsidiary... View Details
      Keywords: General Management; Entertainment; Media; Sports; Marketing; Management; Business Strategy; Bids and Bidding; Sports Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry
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      Elberse, Anita, and Crystal Yao. "YouTube: Bidding for NFL Sunday Ticket." Harvard Business School Case 525-045, March 2025.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Incentive-Compatible Recovery from Manipulated Signals, with Applications to Decentralized Physical Infrastructure

      By: Jason Milionis, Jens Ernstberger, Joseph Bonneau, Scott Duke Kominers and Tim Roughgarden
      We introduce the first formal model capturing the elicitation of unverifiable information from a party (the "source") with implicit signals derived by other players (the "observers"). Our model is motivated in part by applications in decentralized physical... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Infrastructure; Information Infrastructure
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      Milionis, Jason, Jens Ernstberger, Joseph Bonneau, Scott Duke Kominers, and Tim Roughgarden. "Incentive-Compatible Recovery from Manipulated Signals, with Applications to Decentralized Physical Infrastructure." Working Paper, March 2025.
      • January 2025
      • Case

      North Forty: Managing Liquidity Through Change

      By: Luis M. Viceira and Brad Towne
      This case explores the interaction between spending and investment decisions at a family office, specifically the family office of Jeff and Tricia Raikes, with special emphasis on the management of spending, portfolio investments, and asset liquidity in the presence of... View Details
      Keywords: Family Office; Forecasting and Prediction; Asset Management; Financial Liquidity; Financial Strategy; Investment Portfolio; Spending; Planning
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      Viceira, Luis M., and Brad Towne. "North Forty: Managing Liquidity Through Change." Harvard Business School Case 225-061, January 2025.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Home Sweet Home: How Much Do Employees Value Remote Work?

      By: Zoë B. Cullen, Bobak Pakzad-Hurson and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
      We estimate the value employees place on remote work using revealed preferences in a high-stakes, real-world context, focusing on U.S. tech workers. On average, employees are willing to accept a 25% pay cut for partly or fully remote roles. Our estimates are three to... View Details
      Keywords: Employees; Compensation and Benefits; Satisfaction; Value; Research
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      Cullen, Zoë B., Bobak Pakzad-Hurson, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Home Sweet Home: How Much Do Employees Value Remote Work?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33383, January 2025.
      • December 12, 2024
      • Article

      6 Lessons from Companies That Shut Down Their Business in Russia

      By: Kalle Heikkinen, William R. Kerr, Mika Malin, Panu Routila and Joel Ryynänen
      Increasingly, companies are being pressured to decouple from regions that customers, employees, politicians, advocacy groups, and even leaders deem politically fraught. This can pose a dilemma for executives, as research both shows that fast decision-making is vital,... View Details
      Keywords: Public Opinion; Ethics; International Relations; Crisis Management
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      Heikkinen, Kalle, William R. Kerr, Mika Malin, Panu Routila, and Joel Ryynänen. "6 Lessons from Companies That Shut Down Their Business in Russia." Harvard Business Review (website) (December 12, 2024).
      • November–December 2024
      • Article

      Scaling Up Transformational Innovations

      By: Peter Koen, Ananya Sheth, Mike DiPaola and Linda A. Hill
      For large companies operating in mature sectors—such as Procter & Gamble in consumer goods, Apple in consumer electronics, and Adobe in cloud software—driving growth is a perennial challenge. Growth through acquisition is always an option, but companies often quickly... View Details
      Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Leadership; Innovation Strategy; Consumer Products Industry
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      Koen, Peter, Ananya Sheth, Mike DiPaola, and Linda A. Hill. "Scaling Up Transformational Innovations." Harvard Business Review 102, no. 6 (November–December 2024): 78–85.
      • November 2024
      • Article

      On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout

      By: Louis Kaplow and Scott Duke Kominers
      Prominent theory research on voting analyzes a variety of models in which expected pivotality drives voters' turnout decisions and hence determines voting outcomes. It is recognized, however, that such work is at odds with Downs's paradox: in practice, many... View Details
      Keywords: Voting Behavior; Voting Turnout; Paradox Of Voting; Pivotality; Elections; Model; Theory; Governance Transparency; Government; Democracy; Turnout; Voting; Governance; Government and Politics; Public Sector; Political Elections
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      Kaplow, Louis, and Scott Duke Kominers. "On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout." Journal of Law & Economics 67, no. 4 (November 2024): 879–904.
      • November–December 2024
      • Article

      Outcome-Driven Dynamic Refugee Assignment with Allocation Balancing

      By: Kirk Bansak and Elisabeth Paulson
      This study proposes two new dynamic assignment algorithms to match refugees and asylum seekers to geographic localities within a host country. The first, currently implemented in a multi-year pilot in Switzerland, seeks to maximize the average predicted employment... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Refugees; Geographic Location; Employment
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      Bansak, Kirk, and Elisabeth Paulson. "Outcome-Driven Dynamic Refugee Assignment with Allocation Balancing." Operations Research 72, no. 6 (November–December 2024): 2375–2390.
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