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- May 2025
- Article
Punitive but Discerning: Reputation Can Fuel Ambiguously-Deserved Punishment, but Does Not Erode Sensitivity to Nuance
By: Jillian J. Jordan and Nour S. Kteily
The desire to appear virtuous can motivate people to punish wrongdoers, a desirable outcome when punishment is clearly deserved. Yet claims that “virtue signaling” is fueling a culture of outrage suggest that reputation concerns may inspire even potentially unmerited... View Details
- Summer 2025
- Article
Does Marriage Have a Future?
By: Debora L. Spar and Aryanna Garber
The article explores how technology is reshaping the institution of marriage, highlighting significant changes in societal norms and personal relationships. It discusses the decline in marriage rates in industrialized nations, particularly Japan and the United States,... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Heterogeneous Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations
By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
This paper examines the role of heterogeneous investor beliefs in explaining stock market puzzles. Using survey data, we show that individual investors and investment professionals, such as equity analysts and strategists, form distinct beliefs. These groups rely on... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
We address two inconvenient facts in asset pricing: (i) valuation ratios are often more related to future cash flows than to returns, and (ii) they mostly fail to predict returns. We show that these issues arise because stock prices are scaled by cash flows that... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
To address the excess volatility puzzle – the excessive movements in stock prices – researchers often study movements in valuation ratios. However, we demonstrate that movements in valuation ratios based on fundamental measures with high transitory volatility, such as... View Details
- May 2025
- Case
'Net Zero in Action': Impact Investing at the McKnight Foundation
By: Lauren Cohen, Christina R. Wing and Sophia Pan
Elizabeth McGeveran, Vice President of Investments at the McKnight Foundation, reflected on how to effectively advance the organization’s net-zero strategy. The foundation had committed 10% of its endowment to building a portfolio of impact investments and was among... View Details
Keywords: Foundation; Impact Investing; ESG; Family Business; Forecasting and Prediction; Private Sector; Renewable Energy; Social Entrepreneurship; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Green Technology; Financial Strategy; Investment Funds; Investment Portfolio; Institutional Investing; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Private Ownership; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Social Issues; Sustainable Cities; Financial Services Industry; Minnesota; United States
- 2024
- Case
EPCorp: Convincing the C-Suite
By: Jacob M. Cook
In EPCorp: Convincing the C-Suite, Shivani Bahl is attempting to sell EPCorp's CEO, Debbie Sullivan, on her ideas for not only a new website upgrade but also a more expansive vision on how data and Generative AI can be used to grow the company. Debbie is understandably... View Details
- May 2025
- Article
Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs
By: Pedro Bordalo, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? Motivated by survey data on beliefs about Covid we collected in 2020, we build a model based on the psychology of selective memory. When a person thinks about an event,... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
The Limits of Insurance Demand and the Growing Protection Gap
By: Parinitha Sastry, Tess Scharlemann, Ishita Sen and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva
In a world with rising risk, how much are U.S. households willing to pay for homeowners insurance, and what does their demand imply for the future of insurance markets? We provide the first estimates of household willingness to pay for homeowners insurance and the... View Details
- April 2025 (Revised May 2025)
- Background Note
Customer Acquisition and the Cash Flow Trap
By: E. Ofek, Barak Libai and Eitan Muller
Startups as well as existing firms recognize the need to invest in order to acquire customers for their new ventures. And as each customer is expected at some point to have generated sufficient gross margins to cover their CAC, management expects that, soon enough, the... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Navigating Choppy Waters: How U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Affects Small Businesses
By: David Atkin, Zoë Cullen and Ebehi Iyoha
This paper explores the impact of recent changes in the US trade policy environment
on small businesses. Drawing on a survey of more than 4,000 small businesses conducted
between March 22 and 31, 2025, we examine firms’ knowledge, expectations, and
decisions during... View Details
- April 2025
- Article
The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates
In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the... View Details
- March 2025
- Case
YouTube: Bidding for NFL Sunday Ticket
By: Anita Elberse and Crystal Yao
In December 2022, Erin Teague, a senior director and the global head of sports, movies and shows at YouTube, technology giant Alphabet Inc.’s video- sharing platform, received the news that Sundar Pichai, the chief executive officer of Alphabet and its subsidiary... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Incentive-Compatible Recovery from Manipulated Signals, with Applications to Decentralized Physical Infrastructure
By: Jason Milionis, Jens Ernstberger, Joseph Bonneau, Scott Duke Kominers and Tim Roughgarden
We introduce the first formal model capturing the elicitation of unverifiable information from a party (the "source") with implicit signals derived by other players (the "observers"). Our model is motivated in part by applications in decentralized physical... View Details
- January 2025
- Case
North Forty: Managing Liquidity Through Change
By: Luis M. Viceira and Brad Towne
This case explores the interaction between spending and investment decisions at a family office, specifically the family office of Jeff and Tricia Raikes, with special emphasis on the management of spending, portfolio investments, and asset liquidity in the presence of... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Home Sweet Home: How Much Do Employees Value Remote Work?
By: Zoë B. Cullen, Bobak Pakzad-Hurson and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
We estimate the value employees place on remote work using revealed preferences in a high-stakes, real-world context, focusing on U.S. tech workers. On average, employees are willing to accept a 25% pay cut for partly or fully remote roles. Our estimates are three to... View Details
- December 12, 2024
- Article
6 Lessons from Companies That Shut Down Their Business in Russia
By: Kalle Heikkinen, William R. Kerr, Mika Malin, Panu Routila and Joel Ryynänen
Increasingly, companies are being pressured to decouple from regions that customers, employees, politicians, advocacy groups, and even leaders deem politically fraught. This can pose a dilemma for executives, as research both shows that fast decision-making is vital,... View Details
- November–December 2024
- Article
Scaling Up Transformational Innovations
By: Peter Koen, Ananya Sheth, Mike DiPaola and Linda A. Hill
For large companies operating in mature sectors—such as Procter & Gamble in consumer goods, Apple in consumer electronics, and Adobe in cloud software—driving growth is a perennial challenge. Growth through acquisition is always an option, but companies often quickly... View Details
- November 2024
- Article
On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout
By: Louis Kaplow and Scott Duke Kominers
Prominent theory research on voting analyzes a variety of models in which expected pivotality drives voters' turnout decisions and hence determines voting outcomes. It is recognized, however, that such work is at odds with Downs's paradox: in practice, many... View Details
- November–December 2024
- Article
Outcome-Driven Dynamic Refugee Assignment with Allocation Balancing
By: Kirk Bansak and Elisabeth Paulson
This study proposes two new dynamic assignment algorithms to match refugees and asylum seekers to geographic localities within a host country. The first, currently implemented in a multi-year pilot in Switzerland, seeks to maximize the average predicted employment... View Details