Publications

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2023
Working Paper

Much Ado About Nothing? Overreaction to Random Regulatory Audits

By: Samuel Antill and Joseph Kalmenovitz

Regulators often audit firms to detect non-compliance. Exploiting a natural experiment in the lobbying industry, we show that firms overreact to audits and this response distorts prices and reduces welfare. Each year, federal regulators audit a random sample of... View Details

Keywords: Governance Compliance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Price

SSRN

2022
Working Paper

Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges... View Details

Keywords: Overreaction; Rational Expectations; Macroeconomics; Market Participation; Social Psychology

August 2021
Article

Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates

By: Samuel G. Hanson, David O. Lucca and Jonathan H. Wright

Long-term nominal interest rates are surprisingly sensitive to high-frequency (daily or monthly) movements in short-term rates. Since 2000, this high-frequency sensitivity has grown even stronger in U.S. data. By contrast, the association between low-frequency changes... View Details

Keywords: Conundrum; Investor Demand; Monetary Policy Transmission; Interest Rates

2021
Working Paper

Real Credit Cycles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry

We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S.... View Details

Keywords: Econometric Models; Business Cycles; Credit

September 2018
Article

Asset Price Dynamics in Partially Segmented Markets

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Gordon Y. Liao

We develop a model in which capital moves quickly within an asset class but slowly between asset classes. While most investors specialize in a single asset class, a handful of generalists can gradually reallocate capital across markets. Upon the arrival... View Details

Keywords: System Shocks; Asset Pricing

December 1989
Article

On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

By: K. A. Froot and T. Ito

This paper examines whether short-term exchange rate expectations 'overreact' by comparing them with long-term expectations. We develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons. The restrictions impose consistency, a property... View Details

Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing