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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (1,209)
      • Faculty Publications  (194)

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      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Paola Llamas and Franco Vazquez
      This paper examines the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices using a unique integration of high-frequency retail pricing data, product-level country-of-origin information, and detailed tariff classifications. By linking daily prices from major... View Details
      Keywords: Tariffs; Trade; Price; Inflation and Deflation
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Paola Llamas, and Franco Vazquez. "Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs." Working Paper, April 2025.
      • February 2025
      • Case

      Doing Business in Kigali, Rwanda

      By: Andy Zelleke, Martin A. Sinozich, Julianne Bliss and Choetsow Tenzin
      Rwanda’s transformation from a post-genocide recovery effort to one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies presents a compelling case for investors and business leaders. With an ambitious Vision 2050 strategy, Kigali has emerged as a regional hub for trade, innovation,... View Details
      Keywords: Business History; International Relations; Government and Politics; Foreign Direct Investment; Culture; Rwanda
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      Zelleke, Andy, Martin A. Sinozich, Julianne Bliss, and Choetsow Tenzin. "Doing Business in Kigali, Rwanda." Harvard Business School Case 325-087, February 2025.
      • January 2025
      • Case

      AI Meets VC: The Data-Driven Revolution at Quantum Light Capital

      By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Sophia Pan
      Ilya Kondrashov, CEO of Quantum Light Capital, was driven to harness AI for identifying high-potential scale-ups. Collaborating with Nik Storonsky, founder of Revolut, the duo observed that most venture capital (VC) decisions were heavily influenced by emotion, with... View Details
      Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Business Finance; Data Analysis; Angel Investors; Cognitive Biases; Scale; Venture Capital; Investment; Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Technological Innovation; Innovation Strategy; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Public Opinion; Private Sector; Business Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Business Earnings; Behavioral Finance; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Business Startups; Financial Services Industry; London; United Kingdom
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      Cohen, Lauren, Grace Headinger, and Sophia Pan. "AI Meets VC: The Data-Driven Revolution at Quantum Light Capital." Harvard Business School Case 225-053, January 2025.
      • January 2025
      • Case

      PayJoy: Financing for the Next Billion

      By: Boris Groysberg and Sarah L. Abbott
      PayJoy, an impact-driven financial technology company founded in 2015, provides smartphone financing and other financial products to customers who lack access to traditional credit products. As of early 2025, PayJoy had issued $2.5 billion in loans to 13 million... View Details
      Keywords: Social Impact; Fintech; Underbanked; Algorithm; Data Analysis; Technology; Business Startups; Business Model; Growth and Development; Information Technology; Social Enterprise; Developing Countries and Economies; Credit; Mission and Purpose; Entrepreneurship; Financing and Loans; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; South America; South Africa; Asia; Latin America; Africa; Southeast Asia
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      Groysberg, Boris, and Sarah L. Abbott. "PayJoy: Financing for the Next Billion." Harvard Business School Case 425-036, January 2025.
      • July 2024 (Revised January 2025)
      • Case

      Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors: Bringing Systematic Investment to Philanthropy

      By: Lauren Cohen, Hao Gao, Alexander Bischoff and Sophia Pan
      Melissa Berman, CEO of Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors (RPA), evaluated her client’s philanthropy project and its mediocre performance. RPA was a segment of the Rockefeller Family Office’s Philanthropy Department, becoming an independent charity in 2002. Consistently... View Details
      Keywords: Philanthropy; Philanthropic Sector; Performance Evaluations; Social Network; Collaboration; Foundation; Due Diligence; Humanitarianism; Humanitarian Assistance; Grants; Expertise; HNW Products And Services; Donations; Impact; Advisor; Advice; Consulting; Funding; Consulting Services; Family Business; Cost vs Benefits; Developing Countries and Economies; Private Sector; Spending; Mission and Purpose; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Performance Evaluation; Nonprofit Organizations; Reputation; Social and Collaborative Networks; Social Issues; Wealth and Poverty; Consulting Industry; New York (city, NY); New York (state, US); United States
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      Cohen, Lauren, Hao Gao, Alexander Bischoff, and Sophia Pan. "Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors: Bringing Systematic Investment to Philanthropy." Harvard Business School Case 225-005, July 2024. (Revised January 2025.)
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      The Value of Silence: The Effect of UMG’s Licensing Dispute with TikTok on Music Demand

      By: Mengjie (Magie) Cheng, Elie Ofek and Hema Yoganarasimhan
      Social media platforms like TikTok have transformed how music is discovered, consumed, and monetized. This study examines the implications of the dispute between TikTok and Universal Music Group (UMG), which resulted in UMG excluding its music from TikTok from... View Details
      Keywords: Demand And Consumers; Monetization; Social Media; Revenue; Conflict and Resolution; Music Industry
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      Cheng, Mengjie (Magie), Elie Ofek, and Hema Yoganarasimhan. "The Value of Silence: The Effect of UMG’s Licensing Dispute with TikTok on Music Demand." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-014, July 2024. (Revised October 2024.)
      • June 2024
      • Article

      Valuing the Societal Impact of Medicines and Other Health Technologies: A User Guide to Current Best Practices

      By: Jason Shafrin, Jaehong Kim, Joshua T. Cohen, Louis P. Garrison, Dana A. Goldman, Jalpa A. Doshi, Joshua Krieger, Darius N. Lakdawalla, Peter J. Neumann, Charles E. Phelps, Melanie D. Whittington and Richard Willke
      This study argues that value assessment conducted from a societal perspective should rely on the Generalized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (GCEA) framework proposed herein. Recently developed value assessment inventories—such as the Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness’s... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Valuation; Cost vs Benefits; Society
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      Shafrin, Jason, Jaehong Kim, Joshua T. Cohen, Louis P. Garrison, Dana A. Goldman, Jalpa A. Doshi, Joshua Krieger, Darius N. Lakdawalla, Peter J. Neumann, Charles E. Phelps, Melanie D. Whittington, and Richard Willke. "Valuing the Societal Impact of Medicines and Other Health Technologies: A User Guide to Current Best Practices." Forum of Health Economics and Policy 27, no. 1 (June 2024): 29–116.
      • October 2023 (Revised January 2024)
      • Case

      Ball: EVA Driving the World's Leading Can Manufacturer (A)

      By: Jonas Heese and Susan Pinckney
      The case describes Ball’s multi decade history of using Economic Value Added to drive decision making and workforce compensation. In 2016, the company acquired Rexam PLC and became the world’s leading metal beverage container company. Consumer demand for varied... View Details
      Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Cost Accounting; Financial Reporting; Financial Statements; Buildings and Facilities; Green Building; Mergers and Acquisitions; Customer Satisfaction; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Machinery and Machining; Asset Pricing; Corporate Finance; Capital; Cost; Financial Management; Goods and Commodities; Compensation and Benefits; Executive Compensation; Employee Relationship Management; Goals and Objectives; Resource Allocation; Business Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry; United States; Arizona; California; Texas
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      Heese, Jonas, and Susan Pinckney. "Ball: EVA Driving the World's Leading Can Manufacturer (A)." Harvard Business School Case 124-002, October 2023. (Revised January 2024.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Deglobalization and Entrepreneurial Investment: The Natural Experiment of Brexit

      By: Elisa Alvarez-Garrido and Juan Alcácer
      We seek to gain insight into the consequences of deglobalization on entrepreneurial investment by analyzing an instance of economic disintegration: the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union. Brexit is not only a unique empirical opportunity, a natural... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurial Finance; International Relations; Trade; Disruption; Globalized Economies and Regions; United Kingdom
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      Alvarez-Garrido, Elisa, and Juan Alcácer. "Deglobalization and Entrepreneurial Investment: The Natural Experiment of Brexit." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-017, August 2023.
      • September 2023 (Revised September 2024)
      • Technical Note

      Measuring and Managing Social Impact

      By: Brian Trelstad, Gerald Chertavian and Susan Pinckney
      A brief overview of how to measure social impact at nonprofits, social organizations, and impact investments. View Details
      Keywords: Analysis; Change; Transformation; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Public Sector; Entrepreneurship; Social Entrepreneurship; Fairness; Entrepreneurial Finance; Governance; Governing and Advisory Boards; Policy; Innovation and Management; Knowledge Acquisition; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Goals and Objectives; Growth and Development Strategy; Growth Management; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Management Practices and Processes; Resource Allocation; Measurement and Metrics; Standards; Strength and Weakness; Mission and Purpose; Success; Performance; Performance Evaluation; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Strategic Planning; Programs; Risk and Uncertainty; Social Enterprise; Non-Governmental Organizations; Social Issues; United States
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      Trelstad, Brian, Gerald Chertavian, and Susan Pinckney. "Measuring and Managing Social Impact." Harvard Business School Technical Note 324-017, September 2023. (Revised September 2024.)
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Global Harms, Local Profits: How the Uneven Costs of Natural Disasters Affect Support for Green Political Platforms

      By: Silvia Pianta and Paula Rettl
      Large-scale fires are becoming increasingly common due to climate change. While conventional wisdom suggests that firsthand experiences with natural disasters foster green coalitions by raising awareness of environmental degradation, we propose an alternative... View Details
      Keywords: Climate Impact; Politics; Environmental Issues; Environmental Protection; Economic Analysis; Economic Behavior; Economic Geography; Economy; Economics; Climate Change; Environmental Management; Political Elections; Natural Disasters; Green Technology; Environmental Sustainability; Latin America; Brazil
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      Pianta, Silvia, and Paula Rettl. "Global Harms, Local Profits: How the Uneven Costs of Natural Disasters Affect Support for Green Political Platforms." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-023, September 2023. (Revised January 2025.)
      • 2023
      • Chapter

      Inflation and Misallocation in New Keynesian Models

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Francesco Lippi and Ken Miyahara
      The New Keynesian framework implies that sluggish price adjustment results in a distorted allocation of resources. We use a simple model to quantify these unobservable distortions, using data that depict the price-setting behavior of firms, specifically the frequency... View Details
      Keywords: Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Price; Analytics and Data Science; Cost
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Francesco Lippi, and Ken Miyahara. "Inflation and Misallocation in New Keynesian Models." In ECB Forum on Central Banking 26-28 June 2023, Sintra, Portugal: Macroeconomic Stabilisation in a Volatile Inflation Environment. European Central Bank, 2023.
      • 2023
      • Article

      Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators

      By: Benjamin Jakubowski, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
      Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are widely used to estimate causal effects in the absence of a randomized experiment. However, standard approaches to RD analysis face two significant limitations. First, they require a priori knowledge of discontinuities in... View Details
      Keywords: Regression Discontinuity Design; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning
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      Jakubowski, Benjamin, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators." Journal of Machine Learning Research 24, no. 133 (2023): 1–57.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Detecting Structural Breaks in Inflation Trends: A High-Frequency Approach

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta
      We combine standard structural-break methods with high-frequency data to identify shifts in inflation trends. We use this approach to study the inflation dynamics of 25 countries from January 2022 to April 2023 and find evidence of a broad-based slowdown in about half... View Details
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Global Range; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Analysis; Price
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta. "Detecting Structural Breaks in Inflation Trends: A High-Frequency Approach." Working Paper, May 2023. (Preliminary draft.)
      • January 2023
      • Article

      Inequality Regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa from Precolonial Times to the Present

      By: Ewout Frankema, Michiel de Haas and Marlous van Waijenburg
      While current levels of economic inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa receive ample attention from academics and policymakers, we know little about the long-run evolution of inequality in the region. Even the new and influential ‘global inequality literature’ that is... View Details
      Keywords: Economic Inequalty; Equality and Inequality; History; Africa
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      Frankema, Ewout, Michiel de Haas, and Marlous van Waijenburg. "Inequality Regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa from Precolonial Times to the Present." African Affairs 122, no. 486 (January 2023): 57–94.
      • 2022
      • White Paper

      The American Opportunity Index: A Corporate Scorecard of Worker Advancement

      By: Matt Sigelman, Joseph Fuller, Nik Dawson and Gad Levanon
      The American Opportunity Index: A Corporate Scorecard of Worker Advancement is a new effort to give companies and other stakeholders a set of robust tools that measure how well major employers are doing in fostering economic mobility for workers and how they could do... View Details
      Keywords: Upward Mobility; Career Advancement; Personal Development and Career; Compensation and Benefits; Employees; Wages; Human Capital; Recruitment
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      Sigelman, Matt, Joseph Fuller, Nik Dawson, and Gad Levanon. "The American Opportunity Index: A Corporate Scorecard of Worker Advancement." White Paper, Burning Glass Institute, October 2022 (A joint project with Harvard Business School Project on Managing the Future of Work and Schultz Family Foundation.)
      • September 2022
      • Background Note

      On CUE: The Quest for Optimal Customer Unit Economics

      By: Elie Ofek, Barak Libai and Eitan Muller
      Startups are often evaluated by how well they perform on unit economics, defined as the ratio of a customer’s lifetime value (LTV) to acquisition costs (CAC). A common target for unit economics, advocated by many VCs and analysts, is 3:1 (i.e., LTV/CAC=3). While there... View Details
      Keywords: Unit Economics; Business Startups; Performance Evaluation; Customer Value and Value Chain; Customer Relationship Management; Analysis
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      Ofek, Elie, Barak Libai, and Eitan Muller. "On CUE: The Quest for Optimal Customer Unit Economics." Harvard Business School Background Note 523-050, September 2022.
      • August, 2022
      • Article

      Billing and Insurance-Related Administrative Costs: A Cross-National Analysis

      By: Barak D. Richman, Robert S. Kaplan, Japees Kohli, Dennis Purcell, Mahek Shah, Igna Bonfrer, Brian Golden, Rosemary Hannam, Will Mitchell, Daniel Cehic, Garry Crispin and Kevin A. Schulman
      Billing and insurance-related costs are a significant source of wasteful health care spending in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development nations, but these administrative burdens vary across national systems. We executed a microlevel accounting of these... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care Costs; Administrative Costs; Cost; Health Care and Treatment; Health Industry
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      Richman, Barak D., Robert S. Kaplan, Japees Kohli, Dennis Purcell, Mahek Shah, Igna Bonfrer, Brian Golden, Rosemary Hannam, Will Mitchell, Daniel Cehic, Garry Crispin, and Kevin A. Schulman. "Billing and Insurance-Related Administrative Costs: A Cross-National Analysis." Health Affairs 41, no. 8 (August, 2022): 1098–1106.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Measuring the Tolerance of the State: Theory and Application to Protest

      By: Veli Andirin, Yusuf Neggers, Mehdi Shadmehr and Jesse M. Shapiro
      We develop a measure of a regime's tolerance for an action by its citizens. We ground our measure in an economic model and apply it to the setting of political protest. In the model, a regime anticipating a protest can take a costly action to repress it. We define the... View Details
      Keywords: Political Protests; Modeling And Analysis; Government and Politics; Conflict and Resolution
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      Andirin, Veli, Yusuf Neggers, Mehdi Shadmehr, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Measuring the Tolerance of the State: Theory and Application to Protest." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30167, June 2022.
      • April 27, 2022
      • Article

      Inequality in Researchers' Minds: Four Guiding Questions for Studying Subjective Perceptions of Economic Inequality

      By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Shai Davidai, Daniela Goya-Tocchetto, Barnabas Szaszi, Martin Day, Stephanie Tepper, L. Taylor Phillips, M. Usman Mirza, Nailya Ordabayeva and Oliver P. Hauser
      Subjective perceptions of inequality can substantially influence policy attitudes, public health metrics, and societal well-being, but the lack of consensus in the scientific community on how to best operationalize and measure these perceptions may impede progress on... View Details
      Keywords: Equality and Inequality; Perception; Analysis
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      Jachimowicz, Jon M., Shai Davidai, Daniela Goya-Tocchetto, Barnabas Szaszi, Martin Day, Stephanie Tepper, L. Taylor Phillips, M. Usman Mirza, Nailya Ordabayeva, and Oliver P. Hauser. "Inequality in Researchers' Minds: Four Guiding Questions for Studying Subjective Perceptions of Economic Inequality." Journal of Economic Surveys (April 27, 2022).
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