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- November 2007
- Background Note
Bayesian Estimation & Black-Litterman
By: Joshua D. Coval and Erik Stafford
Describes a practical method for asset allocation that is more robust to estimation errors than the traditional implementation of mean-variance optimization with sample means and covariances. The Bayesian inspired Black-Litterman model is described after introducing... View Details
Coval, Joshua D., and Erik Stafford. "Bayesian Estimation & Black-Litterman." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-085, November 2007.
- March 2022
- Article
Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models
By: Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov
Researchers regularly use synthetic control methods for estimating causal effects when a sub-set of units receive a single persistent treatment, and the rest are unaffected by the change. In many applications, however, units not assigned to treatment are nevertheless... View Details
Keywords: Causal Inference; Partial Interference; Synthetic Controls; Bayesian Structural Time Series; Mathematical Methods
Menchetti, Fiammetta, and Iavor Bojinov. "Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models." Annals of Applied Statistics 16, no. 1 (March 2022): 414–435.
- March 2021
- Article
Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment
By: Yang Xiang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke and Samuel Gershman
This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of Bayesian noisy cognition in perceptual judgment, focusing on the central tendency effect: the well-known empirical regularity that perceptual judgments are biased towards the center of the... View Details
Xiang, Yang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke, and Samuel Gershman. "Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment." Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics (March 2021): 1–11.
- May 2011
- Article
Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Risk Management; Prejudice and Bias
Van den Steen, Eric J. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Management Science 57, no. 5 (May 2011): 884–896.
- 2010
- Working Paper
Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents
This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details
Van den Steen, Eric. "Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-049, November 2010.
- 22 Oct 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
Estimating Causal Effects in the Presence of Partial Interference Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models
Keywords: by Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov
- Article
Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a... View Details
Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Estimation; Inflation and Deflation; Information; Household; Behavior; Argentina
Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2016): 59–108.
- August 2021
- Article
Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas
By: F.M. Hollenbach, I. Bojinov, S. Minhas, N.W. Metternich, M.D. Ward and A. Volfovsky
Missing observations are pervasive throughout empirical research, especially in the social sciences. Despite multiple approaches to dealing adequately with missing data, many scholars still fail to address this vital issue. In this paper, we present a simple-to-use... View Details
Hollenbach, F.M., I. Bojinov, S. Minhas, N.W. Metternich, M.D. Ward, and A. Volfovsky. "Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas." Special Issue on New Quantitative Approaches to Studying Social Inequality. Sociological Methods & Research 50, no. 3 (August 2021): 1259–1283. (0049124118799381.)
- 2013
- Dissertation
Designing Freemium: A Model of Consumer Usage, Upgrade, and Referral Dynamics
By: Clarence Lee, Vineet Kumar and Sunil Gupta
Abstract. Over the past decade "freemium" (free + premium) has become the dominant business model among internet start-ups for its ability to acquire and monetize a large install-base with limited marketing resources. Freemium is a hybrid strategy where a firm offers... View Details
- June 2018
- Article
Personal and Social Usage: The Origins of Active Customers and Ways to Keep Them Engaged
By: Clarence Lee, Elie Ofek and Thomas Steenburgh
We study how digital service firms can develop an active customer base, focusing on two questions. First, how does the way that customers use the service postadoption to meet their own needs (personal usage) and to interact with one another (social usage) vary across... View Details
Keywords: Customer Engagement; Adoption Routes; Word-of-Mouth; Digital Marketing; Bayesian Estimation; Customers; Communication; Consumer Behavior; Marketing; Internet and the Web; Analytics and Data Science
Lee, Clarence, Elie Ofek, and Thomas Steenburgh. "Personal and Social Usage: The Origins of Active Customers and Ways to Keep Them Engaged." Management Science 64, no. 6 (June 2018): 2473–2495. (Lead Article.)
- Article
Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability
By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by... View Details
Keywords: Black Box Explanations; Bayesian Modeling; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology
Slack, Dylan, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
- 2019
- Working Paper
Does Apple Anchor a Shopping Mall? The Effect of the Technology Stores on the Formation of Market Structure
By: Doug J. Chung, Kyoungwon Seo and Reo Song
This study examines the effect of technology stores—company-owned Apple and Microsoft retail stores—on mall configuration. We formulate a structural model that considers the endogenous location decisions of retail stores, taking into account both market characteristics... View Details
Keywords: Apple Store; New Anchor Store; Discrete Game; Complete Information; Multiple Equilibria; GPGPU Technology; Simulator; Bayesian Estimation; Shopping Mall; Spillover
Chung, Doug J., Kyoungwon Seo, and Reo Song. "Does Apple Anchor a Shopping Mall? The Effect of the Technology Stores on the Formation of Market Structure." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-066, December 2019.
Detecting Routines: Applications to Ridesharing CRM
Routines shape many aspects of day-to-day consumption. While prior work has established the importance of habits in consumer behavior, little work has been done to understand the implications of routines--which we define as repeated behaviors with recurring, temporal... View Details
- April 2024
- Article
Detecting Routines: Applications to Ridesharing CRM
By: Ryan Dew, Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer and Nachum Sicherman
Routines shape many aspects of day-to-day consumption. While prior work has established the importance of habits in consumer behavior, little work has been done to understand the implications of routines—which we define as repeated behaviors with recurring, temporal... View Details
Keywords: Ride-sharing; Routine; Machine Learning; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Segmentation
Dew, Ryan, Eva Ascarza, Oded Netzer, and Nachum Sicherman. "Detecting Routines: Applications to Ridesharing CRM." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 61, no. 2 (April 2024): 368–392.
- Article
Why, When, and How Much to Entertain Consumers in Advertisements?: A Web-based Facial Tracking Field Study
By: Thales Teixeira, Rosalind Picard and Rana el Kaliouby
The presence of positive entertainment (e.g., visual imagery, upbeat music, humor) in TV advertisements can make them more attractive and persuasive. However, little is known about the downsides of using too much entertainment. This research focuses on why, when, and... View Details
Keywords: Face-tracking; Entertainment; Television; Purchase Intent; Commercials; Facial Expressions; Marketing Communication; Advertising; Television Entertainment; Marketing; Advertising Industry
Teixeira, Thales, Rosalind Picard, and Rana el Kaliouby. "Why, When, and How Much to Entertain Consumers in Advertisements? A Web-based Facial Tracking Field Study." Marketing Science 33, no. 6 (November–December 2014): 809–827.
- August 2017
- Article
Incentives versus Reciprocity: Insights from a Field Experiment
By: Doug J. Chung and Das Narayandas
We conduct a field experiment in which we vary the sales force compensation scheme at an Asian enterprise that sells consumer durable goods. With variation generated by the experimental treatments, we model sales force performance to identify the effectiveness of... View Details
Keywords: Sales Force Compensation; Field Experiment; Heterogeneity; Loss Aversion; Reciprocity; Salesforce Management; Compensation and Benefits
Chung, Doug J., and Das Narayandas. "Incentives versus Reciprocity: Insights from a Field Experiment." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 54, no. 4 (August 2017): 511–524. (Lead article.)
- TeachingInterests
Marketing Models Doctoral Seminar
This course is a doctoral level course on Quantitative Marketing. We will cover methodological as well as substantive topics this semester. Methodological topics include: Choice models, Entry and Exit models, Dynamic structural models, Bayesian estimation methods... View Details
Incentives versus Reciprocity: Insights from a Field Experiment
We conduct a field experiment in which we vary the sales force compensation scheme at an Asian enterprise that sells consumer durable goods. With variation generated by the experimental treatments, we model sales force performance to identify the effectiveness of... View Details
- 2015
- Working Paper
Incentives versus Reciprocity: Insights from a Field Experiment
By: Doug J. Chung and Das Narayandas
We conduct a field experiment in which we vary the sales force compensation scheme at an Asian enterprise that sells consumer durable goods. With variation generated by the experimental treatments, we model sales force performance to identify the effectiveness of... View Details
Keywords: Sales Force Compensation; Field Experiment; Heterogeneity; Loss Aversion; Reciprocity; Motivation and Incentives; Salesforce Management; Compensation and Benefits
Chung, Doug J., and Das Narayandas. "Incentives versus Reciprocity: Insights from a Field Experiment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 15-084, April 2015. (Revised November 2015.)
- 2009
- Working Paper
Do Friends Influence Purchases in a Social Network?
By: Raghuram Iyengar, Sangman Han and Sunil Gupta
Social networks, such as Facebook and Myspace have witnessed a rapid growth in their membership. Some of these businesses have tried an advertising-based model with very limited success. However, these businesses have not fully explored the power of their members to... View Details
Keywords: Marketing; Network Effects; Sales; Power and Influence; Social and Collaborative Networks; Web Sites; South Korea
Iyengar, Raghuram, Sangman Han, and Sunil Gupta. "Do Friends Influence Purchases in a Social Network?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-123, April 2009.