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- September 2025
- Article
Sticky Capital Controls
By: Miguel Acosta-Henao, Laura Alfaro and Andrés Fernández
There is much ongoing debate on the merits of capital controls as effective policy instruments. The differing perspectives are due in part to a lack of empirical studies that look at the intensive margin of controls, which in turn has prevented a quantitative... View Details
- 2025
- Article
Difference-in-Differences Subset Scan
By: Will Stamey, Sriram Somanchi and Edward McFowland III
Difference-in-differences (DiD) has been extensively applied in the literature to elicit the average causal effect of an intervention or policy. Though researchers explore heterogeneity in the treatment effect with respect to time or some observed covariate (usually... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Rethinking Volume
By: Philippe van der Beck, Lorenzo Bretscher and Zhiyu Julie Fu
Gross trading volumes in financial markets are large and far exceed return volatility. In contrast, “net volume”—trading from persistent portfolio reallocations—is substantially lower, as it excludes transitory round-trip trades. This observation reveals a fundamental... View Details
- July–August 2025
- Article
Beefing IT Up for Your Investor? Engagement with Open Source Communities, Innovation, and Startup Funding: Evidence from GitHub
By: Annamaria Conti, Christian Peukert and Maria P. Roche
We study the engagement of nascent firms with open source communities and its implications for innovation and attracting funding. To do so, we link data on 160,065 U.S. startups from Crunchbase to their activities on the open source software development platform... View Details
- July 2025
- Article
No Free Lunch? Welfare Analysis of Firms Selling Through Expert Intermediaries
By: Matt Grennan, Kyle R. Myers, Ashley Swanson and Aaron Chatterji
We study how firms target and influence expert intermediaries. In our context, pharmaceutical manufacturers provide payments to physicians during promotional interactions. We develop an identification strategy based on plausibly exogenous variation in payments driven... View Details
- June 2025
- Case
Konko AI: Automating Work with AI Agents
By: Shikhar Ghosh, Shweta Bagai and Liang Wu
In January 2025, Jean Marc Goguikian and Michael Haddad, co-founders of Konko AI, faced a critical strategic decision. After the company’s developer platform for private large language models (LLMs) struggled to gain traction, they had pivoted to building AI sales... View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning
- 2025
- Working Paper
Heterogeneous Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations
By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
This paper examines the role of heterogeneous investor beliefs in explaining stock market puzzles. Using survey data, we show that individual investors and investment professionals, such as equity analysts and strategists, form distinct beliefs. These groups rely on... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Partisan Corporate Speech
By: William Cassidy and Elisabeth Kempf
We construct a novel measure of partisan corporate speech using natural language
processing techniques and use it to establish three stylized facts. First, the volume
of partisan corporate speech has risen sharply between 2012 and 2022. Second, this
increase has... View Details
- May–June 2025
- Article
Why Should Organizational Scholars Study Migration?
By: Exequiel Hernandez, Prithwiraj Choudhury, Elena Kulchina, Dan Wang, J. Miles Shaver, Mary Zellmer-Bruhn and Tarun Khanna
Migration is one of the most significant forces shaping economies and societies, yet it remains largely understudied in organizational research. At the same time, scholars in other fields with long traditions of studying migration tend to overlook the essential role of... View Details
- March 2025
- Article
Optimal Illiquidity
By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, Christopher Clayton, Christopher Harris, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
We study the socially optimal level of illiquidity in an economy populated by households with taste shocks and present bias with naive beliefs. The government chooses mandatory contributions to accounts, each with a different pre-retirement withdrawal penalty.... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
New Product Diffusion Within Retailers: The Effect of Managerial Quality on Rollout
By: Tomomichi Amano and Jorge Tamayo
Retailers are key intermediaries through which consumers encounter innovation in the form of new products. How are these products rolled out within retailers? Despite standardized processes, we observe significant variation in the availability of new products across... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
A Cognitive Theory of Reasoning and Choice
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Giacomo Lanzani and Andrei Shleifer
We present a theory of decisions in which attention to the features of choice options is determined by the decision maker's categorization of the current choice problem in a set of problems she solved in the past. Categorization depends on goal-relevant as well as... View Details
- February 2025
- Article
Variation in Batch Ordering of Imaging Tests in the Emergency Department and the Impact on Care Delivery
By: Jacob C. Jameson, Soroush Saghafian, Robert S. Huckman and Nicole Hodgson
Objectives: To examine heterogeneity in physician batch ordering practices and measure the impact of a physician's tendency to batch order imaging tests on patient outcomes and resource utilization.
Study Setting and Design: In this retrospective study, we used... View Details
Study Setting and Design: In this retrospective study, we used... View Details
- 2025
- Article
Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects under practical settings with... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Displacement or Complementarity? The Labor Market Impact of Generative AI
By: Wilbur Xinyuan Chen, Suraj Srinivasan and Saleh Zakerinia
Generative AI is poised to reshape the labor market, affecting cognitive and white-collar occupations in ways distinct from past technological revolutions. This study examines whether generative AI displaces workers or augments their jobs by analyzing labor demand and... View Details
- November 2024
- Article
Perceptions About Monetary Policy
By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time,... View Details
- Fall 2024
- Article
The Problem of Good Conduct Among Financial Advisers
By: Mark Egan, Gregor Matvos and Amit Seru
Households in the United States often rely on financial advisers for investment and savings decisions, yet there is a widespread perception that many advisers are dishonest. This distrust is not unwarranted: approximately one in fifteen advisers has a history of... View Details
- October 2024
- Article
Canary Categories
By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Markups and Cost Pass-through Along the Supply Chain
By: Santiago Alvarez-Blaser, Alberto Cavallo, Alexander MacKay and Paolo Mengano
We study markups and pricing strategies along the supply chain. Our unique dataset combines detailed price and cost information from a large global manufacturer with matched retail prices collected online for the period July 2018 through June 2023. We show that total... View Details
- July–August 2024
- Article
Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals
By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response,
which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment
effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to... View Details