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March 2025
Article

Optimal Illiquidity

By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, Christopher Clayton, Christopher Harris, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian

We study the socially optimal level of illiquidity in an economy populated by households with taste shocks and present bias with naive beliefs. The government chooses mandatory contributions to accounts, each with a different pre-retirement withdrawal penalty.... View Details

Keywords: Retirement; Financial Liquidity; Personal Finance; Saving

2025
Working Paper

A Cognitive Theory of Reasoning and Choice

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Giacomo Lanzani and Andrei Shleifer

We present a theory of decisions in which attention to the features of choice options is determined by the decision maker's categorization of the current choice problem in a set of problems she solved in the past. Categorization depends on goal-relevant as well as... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Decision Choices and Conditions

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February 2025
Article

Variation in Batch Ordering of Imaging Tests in the Emergency Department and the Impact on Care Delivery

By: Jacob C. Jameson, Soroush Saghafian, Robert S. Huckman and Nicole Hodgson

Objectives: To examine heterogeneity in physician batch ordering practices and measure the impact of a physician's tendency to batch order imaging tests on patient outcomes and resource utilization.
Study Setting and Design: In this retrospective study, we used... View Details

Keywords: Health Care; Operations Management; Productivity; Health Care and Treatment; Operations; Outcome or Result; Resource Allocation; Health Industry; United States

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2025
Article

Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments

By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li

Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects under practical settings with... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science

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2024
Working Paper

Displacement or Complementarity? The Labor Market Impact of Generative AI

By: Wilbur Xinyuan Chen, Suraj Srinivasan and Saleh Zakerinia

Generative AI is poised to reshape the labor market, affecting cognitive and white-collar occupations in ways distinct from past technological revolutions. This study examines whether generative AI displaces workers or augments their jobs by analyzing labor demand and... View Details

Keywords: Generative Ai; Labor Market; Automation And Augmentation; Labor; AI and Machine Learning; Competency and Skills

November–December 2024
Article

Loss of Peers and Individual Worker Performance: Evidence From H-1B Visa Denials

By: Prithwiraj Choudhury, Kirk Doran, Astrid Marinoni and Chungeun Yoon

We study how restrictive immigration policies that result in the unexpected loss of co-workers affect the performance of skilled migrants employed in organizations. Specifically, we examine the impact of the loss of team members on their co-workers’ performance in... View Details

Keywords: Immigration; Performance Productivity; Employees; Human Capital; Ethnicity; Groups and Teams

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November 2024
Article

Perceptions About Monetary Policy

By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam

We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time,... View Details

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Policy; Interest Rates; Perception; Economy; Forecasting and Prediction

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Fall 2024
Article

The Problem of Good Conduct Among Financial Advisers

By: Mark Egan, Gregor Matvos and Amit Seru

Households in the United States often rely on financial advisers for investment and savings decisions, yet there is a widespread perception that many advisers are dishonest. This distrust is not unwarranted: approximately one in fifteen advisers has a history of... View Details

Keywords: Personal Finance; Behavioral Finance; Trust; Financial Services Industry

October 2024
Article

Canary Categories

By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester

Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details

Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry

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2025
Working Paper

Markups and Cost Pass-through Along the Supply Chain

By: Santiago Alvarez-Blaser, Alberto Cavallo, Alexander MacKay and Paolo Mengano

We study markups and pricing strategies along the supply chain. Our unique dataset combines detailed price and cost information from a large global manufacturer with matched retail prices collected online for the period July 2018 through June 2023. We show that total... View Details

Keywords: Markups; Pricing; Price; Supply Chain; Inflation and Deflation; Cost

2024
Working Paper

Pitch Perfect: Investing in Transportable Presentation Skills to Support Poly-vocal Personae

By: James Riley and Susan S. Silbey

For organizations requiring independent and creative thinking skills for complex problem-solving, especially within a multi-disciplinary pool of collaborators, conventional socialization practices flattening individuality for the sake of uniformity is not necessarily... View Details

Keywords: Creativity; Identity; Competency and Skills; Groups and Teams

July–August 2024
Article

Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals

By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza

Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response, which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to... View Details

Keywords: Long-run Targeting; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Statistical Surrogacy; Customer Churn; Field Experiments; Consumer Behavior; Customer Focus and Relationships; AI and Machine Learning; Marketing Strategy

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2024
Working Paper

The Value of Silence: The Effect of UMG’s Licensing Dispute with TikTok on Music Demand

By: Mengjie (Magie) Cheng, Elie Ofek and Hema Yoganarasimhan

Social media platforms like TikTok have transformed how music is discovered, consumed, and monetized. This study examines the implications of the dispute between TikTok and Universal Music Group (UMG), which resulted in UMG excluding its music from TikTok from... View Details

Keywords: Demand And Consumers; Monetization; Social Media; Revenue; Conflict and Resolution; Music Industry

2024
Working Paper

Incrementality Representation Learning: Synergizing Past Experiments for Intervention Personalization

By: Ta-Wei Huang, Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli

This paper introduces Incrementality Representation Learning (IRL), a novel multitask representation learning framework that predicts heterogeneous causal effects of marketing interventions. By leveraging past experiments, IRL efficiently designs and targets... View Details

Keywords: Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Multi-task Learning; Representation Learning; Personalization; Promotion; Deep Learning; Field Experiments; Customer Focus and Relationships; Customization and Personalization

2024
Working Paper

Advancing Personalization: How to Experiment, Learn & Optimize

By: Aurelie Lemmens, Jason M.T. Roos, Sebastian Gabel, Eva Ascarza, Hernan Bruno, Elea McDonnell Feit, Brett Gordon, Ayelet Israeli, Carl F. Mela and Oded Netzer

Personalization has become the heartbeat of modern marketing. Advances in causal inference and machine learning enable companies to understand how the same marketing action can impact the choices of individual customers differently. This article provides an academic... View Details

Keywords: Personalization; Targeting; Experiments; Observational Studies; Policy Implementation; Policy Evaluation; Customization and Personalization; Marketing Strategy; AI and Machine Learning

2024
Working Paper

Health, Human Capital Development and the Longevity of Japanese Elites Since 710

By: Tom Nicholas and Hiroshi Shimizu

We examine the lifespan of over 40,000 elites in Japan born between 710 and 1912, including samurai warriors, feudal lords, business, political, cultural, and religious leaders at the apex of the social hierarchy. Japanese elites experienced increases in lifespan about... View Details

Keywords: Life Expectancy; Status and Position; Health; History; Human Capital; Japan

June 2024
Article

Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms

By: Mohammad Akbarpour, Piotr Dworczak and Scott Duke Kominers

Many scarce public resources are allocated at below-market-clearing prices, and sometimes for free. Such "non-market" mechanisms sacrifice some surplus, yet they can potentially improve equity. We develop a model of mechanism design with redistributive concerns. Agents... View Details

Keywords: Equality and Inequality; Welfare; Mathematical Methods; Market Design; Cost vs Benefits

2024
Working Paper

The Efficiency of Patent Litigation

By: Samuel Antill, Murat Alp Celik, Xu Tian and Toni M. Whited

How efficient is the U.S. patent litigation system? We quantify the extent to which the litigation system shapes innovation using a novel dynamic model, in which heterogeneous firms innovate and face potential patent lawsuits. We show that the impact of a litigation... View Details

Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Lawsuits and Litigation; Growth and Development; Welfare; Patents

2024
Working Paper

The Effects of Medical Debt Relief: Evidence from Two Randomized Experiments

By: Raymond Kluender, Neale Mahoney, Francis Wong and Wesley Yin

Two in five Americans have medical debt, nearly half of whom owe at least $2,500. Concerned by this burden, governments and private donors have undertaken large, high-profile efforts to relieve medical debt. We partnered with RIP Medical Debt to conduct two randomized... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Outcome or Result; Well-being; Personal Finance

2024
Working Paper

Precautionary Debt Capacity

By: Deniz Aydin and Olivia S. Kim

Firms with ample financial slack are unconstrained... or are they? In a field experiment that randomly expands debt capacity on business credit lines, treated small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) draw down 35 cents on the dollar of expanded debt capacity in... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Financing and Loans

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