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- September 2025
- Article
Using Satellites and Phones to Evaluate and Promote Agricultural Technology Adoption: Evidence from Smallholder Farms in India
By: Shawn Cole, Tomoko Harigaya, Grady Killeen and Aparna Krishna
This paper evaluates a low-cost, customized soil nutrient management advisory service in India. As a methodological contribution, we examine whether and in which settings satellite measurements may be effective at estimating both agricultural yields and treatment... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Fiscal Externalities of Transaction Taxes: Evidence from the Los Angeles Mansion Tax
By: Daniel Green, Vikram Jambulapati, Jack Liebersohn and Tejaswi Velayudhan
We estimate the fiscal externalities of a property transfer tax, the Los Angeles
“Mansion Tax”, on the revenues from property taxes when assessed values are closely
tied to transactions. In California, as in over half of U.S. states, growth in tax as-
sessments... View Details
- Working Paper
Index Rebalancing and Stock Market Composition: Do Indexes Time the Market?
By: Marco Sammon and John J. Shim
Value-weighted indexes must rebalance in response to stock market composition changes, e.g., issuance, buybacks, and IPOs. In doing so, existing index funds implicitly engage in market timing. Index funds’ long-short rebalancing portfolios have a -3.5% annual return... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Trade and Industrial Policy in Supply Chains: Directed Technological Change in Rare Earths
By: Laura Alfaro, Harald Fadinger, Jay Schymik and Gede Virananda
Trade and industrial policies, while primarily intended to support domestic industries, may unintentionally stimulate technological progress abroad. We document this mechanism in the case of rare earth elements (REEs)—critical inputs for manufacturing at the knowledge... View Details
- Working Paper
Shifting Work Patterns with Generative AI
By: Eleanor W. Dillon, Sonia Jaffe, Nicole Immorlica and Christopher T. Stanton
We present evidence on how generative AI changes the work patterns of knowledge workers using
data from a 6-month-long, cross-industry, randomized field experiment. Half of the 7,137 workers
in the study received access to a generative AI tool integrated into the... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Bank Financing of Global Supply Chains
By: Laura Alfaro, Mariya Brussevich, Camelia Minoiu and Andrea Presbitero
Finding new international suppliers is costly, so most importers source inputs from a single country. We examine the role of banks in mitigating trade search costs during the 2018–2019 U.S.-China trade tensions. We match data on shipments to U.S. ports with the U.S.... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Healthcare Provider Bankruptcies
By: Samuel Antill, Ashvin Gandhi, Jessica Bai and Adrienne Sabety
Healthcare firms are filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy at record rates. We find that bankruptcies increase healthcare staff turnover, worsen care, and harm patients. Using a difference-in-differences design, we estimate that a bankruptcy filing immediately increases... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
The Limits of Insurance Demand and the Growing Protection Gap
By: Parinitha Sastry, Tess Scharlemann, Ishita Sen and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva
In a world with rising risk, how much are U.S. households willing to pay for homeowners insurance, and what does their demand imply for the future of insurance markets? We provide the first estimates of household willingness to pay for homeowners insurance and the... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Management and Firm Dynamism
By: Nicholas Bloom, Jonathan S. Hartley, Raffaella Sadun, Rachel Schuh and John Van Reenen
We show better-managed firms are more dynamic in plant acquisitions, disposals, openings and closings in U.S. Census and international data. Better-managed firms also birth better-managed plants, and improve the performance of the plants they acquire. To explain these... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
With a Little Help from My Family: Informal Startup Financing
By: Brian K. Baik, Johan Ludvig S. Karlsen and Katja Kisseleva
Using Norwegian administrative data, we identify family equity investments in startups
and examine their effects on investor returns and firm behavior. Informal investors
earn lower returns than external individuals, and the firms they back are less
likely to secure... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
How to Choose Among Technologies with Learning Curves: Making Better Investment Decisions
By: Christian Kaps and Arielle Anderer
Learning curves, the fact that technologies improve as a function of cumulative experience or investment, are desirable-think inexpensive solar panels or higher performing semiconductors. But, for firms that need to pick one technology among several candidates, such as... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Methane Abatement Costs in the Oil and Gas Industry: Survey and Synthesis
By: Joseph E. Aldy, Forest Reinhardt and Robert N. Stavins
There is growing recognition of the relative importance of anthropogenic emissions of methane as a contributor to global climate change. An important source of such emissions in some countries, including the United States, is the oil and gas (O&G) sector. This points... View Details
- February 2025 (Revised March 2025)
- Case
Accounting for Bitcoin at Block
By: Charles C.Y. Wang, Seil Kim and Sa-Pyung Sean Shin
Abstract: This case explores Block Inc.'s accounting practices for Bitcoin transactions and their impact on financial reporting. Following a 10% stock price drop after missing revenue estimates in Q3 2024, Block faced scrutiny over its Bitcoin-driven revenue model.... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Is Love Blind? AI-Powered Trading with Emotional Dividends
By: De-Rong Kong and Daniel Rabetti
We leverage the non-fungible tokens (NFTs) setting to assess the valuation of emotional dividends (LOVE), a long-standing empirical challenge in private-value markets such as art, antiques, and collectibles. Having created and validated our proxy, we use deep learning... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending
By: Lisa De Simone, Peiyi Jin and Daniel Rabetti
This study establishes a plausible causal link between tax-planning-induced illiquidity and credit risks in lending markets. Exploiting an exogenous tax shock imposed by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on cryptocurrency gains, along with millions of transactions in... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Using Satellites and Phones to Evaluate and Promote Agricultural Technology Adoption: Evidence from Smallholder Farms in India
By: Shawn Cole, Grady Killeen, Tomoko Harigaya and Aparna Krishna
This paper evaluates a low-cost, customized soil nutrient management advisory service in India. As a methodological contribution, we examine whether and in which settings satellite measurements may be effective at estimating both agricultural yields and treatment... View Details
- January 2025 (Revised April 2025)
- Case
Duolingo: On a 'Streak'
By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Nicole Tempest Keller and Nicole Luo
In December 2024, Severin Hacker, Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer of Duolingo, reflected on the remarkable evolution of the language-learning app he helped launch in 2011. As the #1 most downloaded education app in the world, Duolingo had over 100 million... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Home Sweet Home: How Much Do Employees Value Remote Work?
By: Zoë B. Cullen, Bobak Pakzad-Hurson and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
We estimate the value employees place on remote work using revealed preferences in a high-stakes, real-world context, focusing on U.S. tech workers. On average, employees are willing to accept a 25% pay cut for partly or fully remote roles. Our estimates are three to... View Details
- January 2025 (Revised April 2025)
- Case
Less Is More: Will Aldi's Expansion Plans Pay Off in a Crowded U.S. Grocery Market?
By: David Collis and Haisley Wert
In 2024, the discount grocery retailer Aldi announced bold U.S. expansion plans. Within five years, the German company would increase its store count by 30% to reach 3,200+ stores across the United States and approach becoming the fifth largest grocery retailer in the... View Details
- 2025
- Article
Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects under practical settings with... View Details