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- September 2025
- Article
Using Satellites and Phones to Evaluate and Promote Agricultural Technology Adoption: Evidence from Smallholder Farms in India
By: Shawn Cole, Tomoko Harigaya, Grady Killeen and Aparna Krishna
This paper evaluates a low-cost, customized soil nutrient management advisory service in India. As a methodological contribution, we examine whether and in which settings satellite measurements may be effective at estimating both agricultural yields and treatment... View Details
- Working Paper
Shifting Work Patterns with Generative AI
By: Eleanor W. Dillon, Sonia Jaffe, Nicole Immorlica and Christopher Stanton
We present evidence on how generative AI changes the work patterns of knowledge workers using
data from a 6-month-long, cross-industry, randomized field experiment. Half of the 7,137 workers
in the study received access to a generative AI tool integrated into the... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Bank Financing of Global Supply Chains
By: Laura Alfaro, Mariya Brussevich, Camelia Minoiu and Andrea Presbitero
Finding new international suppliers is costly, so most importers source inputs from a single country. We examine the role of banks in mitigating trade search costs during the 2018–2019 U.S.-China trade tensions. We match data on shipments to U.S. ports with the U.S.... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Management and Firm Dynamism
By: Nicholas Bloom, Jonathan S. Hartley, Raffaella Sadun, Rachel Schuh and John Van Reenen
We show better-managed firms are more dynamic in plant acquisitions, disposals, openings and closings in U.S. Census and international data. Better-managed firms also birth better-managed plants, and improve the performance of the plants they acquire. To explain these... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
With a Little Help from My Family: Informal Startup Financing
By: Brian K. Baik, Johan Ludvig S. Karlsen and Katja Kisseleva
Using Norwegian administrative data, we identify family equity investments in startups
and examine their effects on investor returns and firm behavior. Informal investors
earn lower returns than external individuals, and the firms they back are less
likely to secure... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
How to Choose Among Technologies with Learning Curves: Making Better Investment Decisions
By: Christian Kaps and Arielle Anderer
Learning curves, the fact that technologies improve as a function of cumulative experience or investment, are desirable-think inexpensive solar panels or higher performing semiconductors. But, for firms that need to pick one technology among several candidates, such as... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Methane Abatement Costs in the Oil and Gas Industry: Survey and Synthesis
By: Joseph E. Aldy, Forest Reinhardt and Robert N. Stavins
There is growing recognition of the relative importance of anthropogenic emissions of methane as a contributor to global climate change. An important source of such emissions in some countries, including the United States, is the oil and gas (O&G) sector. This points... View Details
- February 2025 (Revised March 2025)
- Case
Accounting for Bitcoin at Block
By: Charles C.Y. Wang, Seil Kim and Sa-Pyung Sean Shin
Abstract: This case explores Block Inc.'s accounting practices for Bitcoin transactions and their impact on financial reporting. Following a 10% stock price drop after missing revenue estimates in Q3 2024, Block faced scrutiny over its Bitcoin-driven revenue model.... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Is Love Blind? AI-Powered Trading with Emotional Dividends
By: De-Rong Kong and Daniel Rabetti
We leverage the non-fungible tokens (NFTs) setting to assess the valuation of emotional dividends (LOVE), a long-standing empirical challenge in private-value markets such as art, antiques, and collectibles. Having created and validated our proxy, we use deep learning... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending
By: Lisa De Simone, Peiyi Jin and Daniel Rabetti
This study establishes a plausible causal link between tax-planning-induced illiquidity and credit risks in lending markets. Exploiting an exogenous tax shock imposed by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on cryptocurrency gains, along with millions of transactions in... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Climate Risk and the U.S. Insurance Gap: Measurement, Drivers and Implications
By: Pari Sastry, Therese Scharlemann, Ishita Sen and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva
Despite rising climate-related property damage, the average American is under-insured. We study the homeowners insurance protection gap using nationwide state-of-the-art insurance, mortgage, and climate databases at a property level and exploiting quasi-exogenous... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Using Satellites and Phones to Evaluate and Promote Agricultural Technology Adoption: Evidence from Smallholder Farms in India
By: Shawn Cole, Grady Killeen, Tomoko Harigaya and Aparna Krishna
This paper evaluates a low-cost, customized soil nutrient management advisory service in India. As a methodological contribution, we examine whether and in which settings satellite measurements may be effective at estimating both agricultural yields and treatment... View Details
- January 2025 (Revised April 2025)
- Case
Duolingo: On a 'Streak'
By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Nicole Tempest Keller and Nicole Luo
In December 2024, Severin Hacker, Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer of Duolingo, reflected on the remarkable evolution of the language-learning app he helped launch in 2011. As the #1 most downloaded education app in the world, Duolingo had over 100 million... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Home Sweet Home: How Much Do Employees Value Remote Work?
By: Zoë B. Cullen, Bobak Pakzad-Hurson and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
We estimate the value employees place on remote work using revealed preferences in a high-stakes, real-world context, focusing on U.S. tech workers. On average, employees are willing to accept a 25% pay cut for partly or fully remote roles. Our estimates are three to... View Details
- January 2025 (Revised April 2025)
- Case
Less Is More: Will Aldi's Expansion Plans Pay Off in a Crowded U.S. Grocery Market?
By: David Collis and Haisley Wert
In 2024, the discount grocery retailer Aldi announced bold U.S. expansion plans. Within five years, the German company would increase its store count by 30% to reach 3,200+ stores across the United States and approach becoming the fifth largest grocery retailer in the... View Details
- 2025
- Article
Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects under practical settings with... View Details
- December 2024
- Article
Are Bankruptcy Professional Fees Excessively High?
By: Samuel Antill
Chapter 7 is the most popular bankruptcy system for U.S. firms and individuals. Chapter 7 professional fees are substantial. Theoretically, high fees might be an unavoidable cost of incentivizing professionals. I test this empirically. I study trustees, the most... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Scaling Core Earnings Measurement with Large Language Models
By: Matthew Shaffer and Charles CY Wang
We study the application of large language models (LLMs) to the estimation of core earnings, i.e., a firm's persistent profitability from its core business activities. This construct is central to investors' assessments of economic performance and valuations. However,... View Details
- November 2024
- Article
Perceptions About Monetary Policy
By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time,... View Details
- November 2024
- Article
Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs
By: Xi Ling, Wesley R. Hartmann and Tomomichi Amano
This paper compares two estimators—the Border Approach and an Instrumental Variable (IV) estimator—using a unified framework where identifying variation arises from “preference externalities,” following the intuition in Waldfogel (2003). We highlight two dimensions in... View Details