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      Stock Market ExpectationsRemove Stock Market Expectations →

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      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Going by the Book: Valuation Ratios and Stock Returns

      By: Ki-Soon Choi, Eric So and Charles C.Y. Wang
      We study the use of firms’ book-to-market ratios (B/M) in value investing and its implications for comovements in firms’ stock returns and trading volumes. We show B/M has become increasingly detached from common alternative valuation ratios over time while also... View Details
      Keywords: Valuation Ratios; Book-to-market Ratios; Investment Return; Investment; Decision Making
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      Choi, Ki-Soon, Eric So, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Going by the Book: Valuation Ratios and Stock Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-126, May 2021.
      • April 2021
      • Case

      Distinct Software

      By: Das Narayandas, Arijit Sengupta and Jonathan Wray
      Distinct Software (disguised name), a global enterprise software company, is at an important point in its growth trajectory where the luster of its mantra of “grow and win at any cost” has dimmed with increasing competition and margin pressures. To help navigate its... View Details
      Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Marketing; Sales; Performance Productivity; Technological Innovation; AI and Machine Learning
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      Narayandas, Das, Arijit Sengupta, and Jonathan Wray. "Distinct Software." Harvard Business School Case 521-101, April 2021.
      • April 22, 2021
      • Article

      Shareholders Are Pressing for Climate Risk Disclosures. That's Good for Everyone

      By: Caroline Flammer, Michael W. Toffel and Kala Viswanathan
      Does shareholder activism induce firms to voluntarily disclose climate change risks? And how do markets respond to these disclosures? New research finds that the extent of climate-risk disclosure increases by approximately 4.6% for each environment-related proposal... View Details
      Keywords: Reporting; Transparency; Activism; Shareholder Activism; Shareholder Engagement; Climate Change; Corporate Disclosure; Investment Activism; Business and Shareholder Relations
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      Flammer, Caroline, Michael W. Toffel, and Kala Viswanathan. "Shareholders Are Pressing for Climate Risk Disclosures. That's Good for Everyone." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (April 22, 2021).
      • April 2021
      • Case

      Transforming BlackBerry: From Smartphones to Software

      By: Ranjay Gulati and Nicole Tempest Keller
      On the verge of failure, BlackBerry brought in John Chen as CEO in 2013 to orchestrate a bold turnaround of the company. Once an iconic leader in the smartphone market, BlackBerry was best known for its tactile QWERTY keyboard, strong security, and a focus on business... View Details
      Keywords: Pivot; Managing Change; Turnaround; Smartphone; Change Management; Leading Change; Transformation; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Digital Platforms; Change; Information Infrastructure; Applications and Software; Competitive Strategy; Cybersecurity; Technology Industry; Transportation Industry; Canada
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      Gulati, Ranjay, and Nicole Tempest Keller. "Transforming BlackBerry: From Smartphones to Software." Harvard Business School Case 421-052, April 2021.
      • April 2021 (Revised July 2021)
      • Case

      StockX: The Stock Market of Things (Abridged)

      By: Chiara Farronato, John J. Horton, Annelena Lobb and Julia Kelley
      Founded in 2015 by Dan Gilbert, Josh Luber, and Greg Schwartz, StockX was an online platform where users could buy and sell unworn luxury and limited-edition sneakers. Sneaker resale prices often fluctuated over time based on supply and demand, creating a robust... View Details
      Keywords: Markets; Auctions; Bids and Bidding; Demand and Consumers; Consumer Behavior; Analytics and Data Science; Market Design; Digital Platforms; Market Transactions; Marketplace Matching; Supply and Industry; Analysis; Price; Product Marketing; Product Launch; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Fashion Industry; North and Central America; United States; Michigan; Detroit
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      Farronato, Chiara, John J. Horton, Annelena Lobb, and Julia Kelley. "StockX: The Stock Market of Things (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 621-107, April 2021. (Revised July 2021.)
      • January–February 2021
      • Article

      Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality

      By: Wen Chen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim
      We test the hypothesis that if poor accounting quality (AQ) is associated with poor investor understanding of firms’ revenue and cost structures, then poor AQ stocks likely respond more slowly than good AQ stocks to new non‐idiosyncratic information that affects both... View Details
      Keywords: Accounting Quality; Earnings Quality; Stock Returns; Investment Strategy; Accounting; Business Earnings; Quality; Investment Return; Investment; Strategy
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      Chen, Wen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan, and George Serafeim. "Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality." Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 48, nos. 1-2 (January–February 2021): 70–101.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer

      By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
      We outline a framework in which accounting “valuation anchors" could be connected to expected stock returns. Under two general conditions, expected log returns is a log-linear function of a valuation (market value-to-accounting) multiple and the expected growth in the... View Details
      Keywords: Expected Returns; Present Value; Investment Return; Accounting; Valuation; Information; Framework
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      Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-081, January 2021.
      • January 2021 (Revised October 2021)
      • Case

      eToro: Building the World's Largest Social Trading Network

      By: Elie Ofek and Danielle Golan
      Social trading platform eToro was preparing for the launch of its expanded offering in the U.S. The company faced critical decisions regarding product-market fit, go-to-market strategy, positioning and monetization. Moreover, it faced the challenge of how best to make... View Details
      Keywords: Social Trading Platform; Investment; Social and Collaborative Networks; Marketing Strategy; Expansion; Digital Platforms
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      Ofek, Elie, and Danielle Golan. "eToro: Building the World's Largest Social Trading Network." Harvard Business School Case 521-057, January 2021. (Revised October 2021.)
      • 2021
      • Article

      Consumer Disclosure

      By: Tami Kim, Kate Barasz and Leslie John
      As technological advances enable consumers to share more information in unprecedented ways, today’s disclosure takes on a variety of new forms, triggering a paradigm shift in what “disclosure” entails. This review introduces two factors to conceptualize consumer... View Details
      Keywords: Disclosure; Passive Disclosure; Information; Internet and the Web; Consumer Behavior; Situation or Environment
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      Kim, Tami, Kate Barasz, and Leslie John. "Consumer Disclosure." Consumer Psychology Review 4 (2021): 59–69.
      • January 2021
      • Article

      Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times

      By: Philippe Aghion, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
      What is the optimal form of firm organization during “bad times”? We present a model of delegation within the firm to show that the effect is ambiguous. The greater turbulence following macro shocks may benefit decentralized firms because the value of local information... View Details
      Keywords: Decentralization; Growth; Turbulence; Great Recession; Organizational Design; System Shocks; Economic Growth; Performance
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      Aghion, Philippe, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 13, no. 1 (January 2021): 133–169.
      • December 2020 (Revised April 2021)
      • Case

      Arcos Dorados: A QSR Recovery Plan

      By: Forest Reinhardt, José B. Alvarez, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago and Mariana Cal
      Arcos Dorados—McDonald’s largest independent franchisee, covering Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)—faced a pandemic that was disrupting the entire consumer foodservice business in 2020. With the exclusive right to own, operate, and sub-franchise McDonald’s... View Details
      Keywords: Agribusiness; Animal-Based Agribusiness; Plant-Based Agribusiness; Customer Value and Value Chain; Income; Macroeconomics; Environmental Management; Environmental Sustainability; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Food; Health Pandemics; Crisis Management; Logistics; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Strategic Planning; Food and Beverage Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Retail Industry; Latin America; Aruba; Guadeloupe; Martinique; Mexico; Panama; Costa Rica; Argentina; Brazil; Chile; Colombia; Ecuador; French Guiana; Peru; Uruguay; Venezuela; Puerto Rico; Trinidad and Tobago
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      Reinhardt, Forest, José B. Alvarez, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago, and Mariana Cal. "Arcos Dorados: A QSR Recovery Plan." Harvard Business School Case 721-023, December 2020. (Revised April 2021.)
      • Article

      The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19

      By: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Kyle Kost, Marco Sammon and Tasaneeya Viratyosin
      No previous infectious disease outbreak, including the Spanish Flu, has impacted the stock market as forcefully as the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, previous pandemics left only mild traces on the U.S. stock market. We use text-based methods to develop these points with... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Stock Market; Health Pandemics; Governance; Policy; Financial Markets
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      Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Kyle Kost, Marco Sammon, and Tasaneeya Viratyosin. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19." Review of Asset Pricing Studies 10, no. 4 (December 2020): 742–758.
      • November 2020 (Revised September 2021)
      • Case

      HP Instant Ink: (Self) Disrupting the Consumer Printing Market

      By: Elie Ofek, Marco Bertini, Oded Koenigsberg and George Gonzalez
      Seeking to disrupt the consumer printing market (before being disrupted by others), and in response to customer pain points, in 2013 HP Inc. launched an ink replenishment service called Instant Ink, where customers pay a monthly subscription fee based on the number of... View Details
      Keywords: Printing; Ink; Subscription Model; Customers; Information Infrastructure; Service Delivery; Business Model; Disruption; Growth and Development Strategy
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      Ofek, Elie, Marco Bertini, Oded Koenigsberg, and George Gonzalez. "HP Instant Ink: (Self) Disrupting the Consumer Printing Market." Harvard Business School Case 521-016, November 2020. (Revised September 2021.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Stock Market Value of Human Capital Creation

      By: Matthias Regier and Ethan Rouen
      We develop a measure of firm-year-specific human capital investment from publicly disclosed personnel expenses (PE) and examine the stock market valuation of this investment. Measuring the future value of PE (PEFV) based on the relation between lagged... View Details
      Keywords: Intangibles; Market Valuation; Human Capital; Stocks; Financial Markets; Valuation
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      Regier, Matthias, and Ethan Rouen. "The Stock Market Value of Human Capital Creation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-047, October 2020. (Revised March 2022.)
      • Oct 2020
      • Conference Presentation

      Optimal, Truthful, and Private Securities Lending

      By: Emily Diana, Michael J. Kearns, Seth Neel and Aaron Leon Roth
      We consider a fundamental dynamic allocation problem motivated by the problem of securities lending in financial markets, the mechanism underlying the short selling of stocks. A lender would like to distribute a finite number of identical copies of some scarce resource... View Details
      Keywords: Differential Privacy; Mechanism Design; Finance; Mathematical Methods
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      Diana, Emily, Michael J. Kearns, Seth Neel, and Aaron Leon Roth. "Optimal, Truthful, and Private Securities Lending." Paper presented at the 1st Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) International Conference on AI in Finance (ICAIF), October 2020.
      • September 2020 (Revised May 2024)
      • Case

      Hot Wheels: Launching The Mixed Play Experience

      By: Elie Ofek, Andres Terech and Nicole Tempest Keller
      Chris Down, Global Brand General Manager for Hot Wheels, and his team from the Advanced Play Group within Mattel, Inc., had developed an entirely new “mixed play” product experience that blended familiar Hot Wheels play in the physical world with breakthrough play in... View Details
      Keywords: Toys; Go-to-market Strategy; Product Development; Technological Innovation; Product Launch; Product Positioning; Decision Making; Marketing; Strategy; Los Angeles
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      Ofek, Elie, Andres Terech, and Nicole Tempest Keller. "Hot Wheels: Launching The Mixed Play Experience." Harvard Business School Case 521-017, September 2020. (Revised May 2024.)
      • September 2020 (Revised November 2020)
      • Case

      d.light

      By: Michael Chu, Krishna G. Palepu and Dilyana Karadzhova Botha
      Kenyan off-grid-solar pioneer d.light can power entire homes in rural Africa but must now decide how to fund the growth of its asset-heavy business model. Ned Tozun and Sam Goldman founded d.light in 2006 to transform lives through solar solutions enabling access to... View Details
      Keywords: Alternative Energy; Business Model; Capital; Emerging Markets; Expansion; Financial Strategy; Renewable Energy; Strategy; Social Entrepreneurship; Energy Industry; Africa; Kenya; India
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      Chu, Michael, Krishna G. Palepu, and Dilyana Karadzhova Botha. "d.light." Harvard Business School Case 321-069, September 2020. (Revised November 2020.)
      • September–October 2020
      • Article

      Managing Churn to Maximize Profits

      By: Aurelie Lemmens and Sunil Gupta
      Customer defection threatens many industries, prompting companies to deploy targeted, proactive customer retention programs and offers. A conventional approach has been to target customers either based on their predicted churn probability or their responsiveness to a... View Details
      Keywords: Churn Management; Defection Prediction; Loss Function; Stochastic Gradient Boosting; Customer Relationship Management; Consumer Behavior; Profit
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      Lemmens, Aurelie, and Sunil Gupta. "Managing Churn to Maximize Profits." Marketing Science 39, no. 5 (September–October 2020): 956–973.
      • August 2020 (Revised December 2020)
      • Case

      Latam Airlines and COVID-19: Seeking Bankruptcy Protection in the United States

      By: Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Larrain, Carlos Vilches and Sarah Jeong
      On May 26, 2020, Latam Airlines became the largest airline in the world to be driven to bankruptcy by COVID-19. With a complex debt structure and international investor composition, the company decided to file for bankruptcy protection in the United States, which... View Details
      Keywords: Airlines; Pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic; Health Pandemics; Air Transportation; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Capital Markets; Strategy; Latin America; Chile; United States
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      Alfaro, Laura, Mauricio Larrain, Carlos Vilches, and Sarah Jeong. "Latam Airlines and COVID-19: Seeking Bankruptcy Protection in the United States." Harvard Business School Case 321-027, August 2020. (Revised December 2020.)
      • August 2020 (Revised March 2021)
      • Supplement

      Migros Turkey: Scaling Online Operations (B)

      By: Antonio Moreno and Gamze Yucaoglu
      The case opens in February 2020 as Ozgur Tort and Mustafa Bartin, CEO and chief large-format and online retail officer of Migros Ticaret A.S. (Migros), Turkey’s oldest and one of its largest supermarket chains, are looking over the results of the fulfillment pilot the... View Details
      Keywords: Grocery; Business Model; Strategy; Digital Platforms; Information Technology; Technology Adoption; Value Creation; Globalization; Competition; Expansion; Logistics; Profit; Resource Allocation; Corporate Strategy; Retail Industry; Turkey
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      Moreno, Antonio, and Gamze Yucaoglu. "Migros Turkey: Scaling Online Operations (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 621-027, August 2020. (Revised March 2021.)
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