Risk and Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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February 2025
Tutorial

Preparing Business Leaders for an Era of Climate Instability: Understanding and Managing Physical Climate Risk

By: Michael W. Toffel and Spencer Glendon

In this compelling video, Spencer Glendon, founder of Probable Futures and Executive Fellow at Harvard Business School, describes the profound implications of climate change for businesses, the economy, and societies around the world. Drawing from his background in... View Details

Keywords: Risk; Uncertainty; Modeling; Climate Change; Adaptation; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management

2024
Working Paper

Hidden Risk

By: Daniel Barth, Phillip Monin, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

Since 2013, large U.S. hedge fund advisers have been required to report risk exposures in their regulatory filings. Using these data, we first establish that managers’ perceptions of risk contain useful information that is not embedded in fund returns. Investor flows... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Disclosure; Investment Funds; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Return; Communication Strategy; Financial Services Industry

2024
Working Paper

How Do Global Portfolio Investors Hedge Currency Risk?

By: Robin Greenwood and Alex Cheema-Fox

We use monthly portfolio data from one of the world’s largest custodian banks, with over $40 trillion assets under custody, to study how global portfolio investors hedge foreign exchange risk in their equity and fixed income portfolios over the past 25 years. The data... View Details

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Investment Funds; Currency; Risk and Uncertainty

October 2024
Article

On Why Women-owned Businesses Take More Time to Secure Microloans

By: Goran Calic, Moren Lévesque and Anton Shevchenko

Examining gender differences in business financing reveals important dimensions on which women- and men-owned businesses differ. Although considerable progress has been made in understanding gender differences in mobilizing resources, the role of time in business... View Details

Keywords: Microfinance; Gender; Financing and Loans; Equality and Inequality; Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Choices and Conditions; Entrepreneurship

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October 2024
Case

Southern California Industrial: Freezer Drive

By: Arthur I. Segel, W. Matt Kelly and Dwight Angelini

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, a Boston based real estate private equity firm was seeking to make their very first West Coast investments in hopes of establishing their presence in the strategic region. An exciting property suddenly became available on the... View Details

Keywords: Real Estate Development; Acquisition; Health Pandemics; Risk and Uncertainty; Expansion; Cost vs Benefits; Investment Return; Real Estate Industry

September 2024
Case

InfraCredit and the Project Inception Facility

By: John Macomber, Namrata Arora and Maagatha Kalavadakken

Around the world, large infrastructure projects are frequently stymied by the high cost and high uncertainty of the project inception phase: the research and engineering and planning prior to financial close and start of construction. Could there be a new kind of... View Details

September 2024
Supplement

Red Hen Baking Company (B)

By: Richard S. Ruback and Royce Yudkoff

Pre-abstract: Instructors should consider the timing of making videos available to students, as they may reveal key case details.

Abstract: This (B) case supplement is designed for use by faculty only to support classroom instruction in conjunction with "Red... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Financial Strategy; Financial Management; Buildings and Facilities; Finance; Food; Risk Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Growth and Development Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry; United States; Vermont

September 2024 (Revised December 2024)
Case

Sona Comstar and Blackstone: Unlocking Value Through Business Transformation

By: Ranjay Gulati and Kanika Jain

Private equity firm Blackstone’s majority investment in automotive systems manufacturer Sona Comstar had culminated in the largest IPO in the Indian auto components industry in 2021, with stellar returns for all involved. This EV supplier was the result of a 2019... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Decision Making; Engineering; Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Private Equity; Mergers and Acquisitions; Initial Public Offering; Auto Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Technology Industry; Asia; Southeast Asia

2024
Working Paper

Finance Without Exotic Risk

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta and Andrei Shleifer

We address the joint hypothesis problem in cross-sectional asset pricing by using measured analyst expectations of earnings growth. We construct a firm-level measure of Expectations Based Returns (EBRs) that uses analyst forecast errors and revisions and shuts down any... View Details

Keywords: Investment Return; Financial Markets; Behavioral Finance; Risk and Uncertainty

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2024
Working Paper

The Rise of Alternatives

By: Juliane Begenau, Pauline Liang and Emil Siriwardane

Since the 2000s, U.S. public pensions have shifted their risky investments towards alternative assets like private equity and hedge funds, some more aggressively than others. We explore several explanations for these cross-sectional trends, focusing on those implied by... View Details

Keywords: Investment Funds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty

July 2024
Case

ZEISS: Commercializing Science

By: Maria P. Roche, Carlota Moniz and Daniela Beyersdorfer

Karl Lamprecht, President and CEO of the ZEISS AG Group, mused on how far ZEISS had come in 175 years of being a pioneer in optics, and how the course he had charted since taking the helm of the company could keep it on track. In his role, he oversaw the four core... View Details

July 2024
Case

Jacqueline Cook at Vendasta: Debating an IPO

By: Reza Satchu, Tom Quinn and Andrew Kosc

In May 2021, after a surge in demand for digital services that prompted high valuations for startups across the Canadian tech sector, Saskatchewan-based Vendasta entered the final stages of the initial public offering (IPO) process. COO Jacqueline Cook had invested her... View Details

July 2024
Case

Titan: OceanGate's Tragedy of Titanic Proportions

By: Aiyesha Dey, Joseph Pacelli, James Barnett and ZeSean Ali

In June 2023, OceanGate’s Titan submersible imploded attempting to reach the Titanic shipwreck site 3,800 meters below sea level. All five passengers aboard died, including OceanGate founder and CEO Stockton Rush. Before the tragedy, many in the deep-sea exploration... View Details

Keywords: Analysis; Decision Making; Ethics; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Safety; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Technology Industry; Tourism Industry; Transportation Industry; Atlantic Ocean; North America; Washington (state, US)

July 2024
Article

Acceptance of Automated Vehicles Is Lower for Self than Others

By: Stuti Agarwal, Julian De Freitas, Anya Ragnhildstveit and Carey K. Morewedge

Road traffic accidents are the leading cause of death worldwide for people aged 2–59. Nearly all deaths are due to human error. Automated vehicles could reduce mortality risks, traffic congestion, and air pollution of human-driven vehicles. However, their adoption... View Details

Keywords: Transportation; Risk and Uncertainty; Technology Adoption; Prejudice and Bias

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July 2024
Article

How Artificial Intelligence Constrains Human Experience

By: A. Valenzuela, S. Puntoni, D. Hoffman, N. Castelo, J. De Freitas, B. Dietvorst, C. Hildebrand, Y.E. Huh, R. Meyer, M. Sweeney, S. Talaifar, G. Tomaino and K. Wertenbroch

Many consumption decisions and experiences are digitally mediated. As a consequence, consumer behavior is increasingly the joint product of human psychology and ubiquitous algorithms (Braun et al. 2024; cf. Melumad et al. 2020). The coming of age of Large Language... View Details

Keywords: Large Language Model; User Experience; AI and Machine Learning; Consumer Behavior; Technology Adoption; Risk and Uncertainty; Cost vs Benefits

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June 2024
Case

SnapTravel: Betting on 'Super.com'

By: Reza Satchu and Tom Quinn

This case explores SnapTravel, a travel startup offering discounted hotel rooms, and its founders’ desire to pivot to a “super app” that saved customers money across many different purchase types. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Hussein Fazal and Henry Shi saw SnapTravel... View Details

June 2024
Case

Tremblant Capital: Launching an Active ETF

By: Robin Greenwood, Luis M. Viceira and Robert Ialenti

The case highlights deliberations led by Brett Barakett, CEO and chief investment officer of Tremblant Capital, just months prior to launching an actively managed ETF, Tremblant Global (TOGA). However, his team continued to have reservations around the launch. On the... View Details

Keywords: Asset Management; Investment Funds; Product Launch; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Services Industry

June 2024
Article

Counterparty Risk and Counterparty Choice in the Credit Default Swap Market

By: Wenxin Du, Salil Gadgil, Michael Gordy and Clara Vega

We investigate how market participants price and manage counterparty credit risk using confidential trade repository data on single-name credit default swap (CDS) transactions. We find that counterparty risk has a modest impact on the pricing of CDS contracts but a... View Details

Keywords: Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Market Participation; Risk and Uncertainty; Price; Financial Markets; Credit

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May 2024
Supplement

gWorks (A)

By: Richard S. Ruback and Royce Yudkoff

In January of 2019, Joe Heieck, CEO of gWorks, was deciding whether to proceed with his acquisition of Data Tech, that was a business roughly the same size as gWorks. gWorks, which provided geospatial software to small city and rural county governments, was acquired by... View Details

May 2024
Supplement

gWorks (B)

By: Richard S. Ruback and Royce Yudkoff

In January of 2019, Joe Heieck, CEO of gWorks, was deciding whether to proceed with his acquisition of Data Tech, that was a business roughly the same size as gWorks. gWorks, which provided geospatial software to small city and rural county governments, was acquired by... View Details

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