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- July 2025
- Case
Mitsui & Co., Ltd.
By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Akiko Saito
In 2025, Kenichi Hori, President and CEO of Mitsui & Co., Ltd.—one of Japan’s most prominent Sogo Shosha (investment and trading companies with sprawling global footprints)—reflected on the company’s record-breaking profits. Its operations spanned multiple... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Heterogeneous Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations
By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
This paper examines the role of heterogeneous investor beliefs in explaining stock market puzzles. Using survey data, we show that individual investors and investment professionals, such as equity analysts and strategists, form distinct beliefs. These groups rely on... View Details
McCarthy, Odhrain, and Sebastian Hillenbrand. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations." Working Paper, June 2025. (WFA Brattle Group Ph.D. Award for Outstanding Research.)
- 2025
- Working Paper
Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
We address two inconvenient facts in asset pricing: (i) valuation ratios are often more related to future cash flows than to returns, and (ii) they mostly fail to predict returns. We show that these issues arise because stock prices are scaled by cash flows that... View Details
Keywords: Cash Flow; Volatility; Investment Return; Asset Pricing; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation; Stocks
Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows." Working Paper, June 2025.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
To address the excess volatility puzzle – the excessive movements in stock prices – researchers often study movements in valuation ratios. However, we demonstrate that movements in valuation ratios based on fundamental measures with high transitory volatility, such as... View Details
Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing." Working Paper, June 2025.
- June 2025
- Case
Vail Resorts: Responding to Activist Pressure (A)
By: Benjamin C. Esty and Edward A. Meyer
On January 27, 2025, the head of a relatively small hedge fund named Late Apex Partners sent a highly critical letter to the board of directors of Vail Resorts, the world’s largest ski resort operator. In his letter, and the 88-slide presentation that accompanied his... View Details
Keywords: Corporate Finance; Capital Budgeting; Corporate Governance; Competitive Advantage; Competitive Strategy; Leading Change; Valuation; Investment Activism; Climate Change; Management Succession; Financial Management; Risk Management; Business and Shareholder Relations; Sports Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Travel Industry; United States; Australia; Canada
Esty, Benjamin C., and Edward A. Meyer. "Vail Resorts: Responding to Activist Pressure (A)." Harvard Business School Case 225-082, June 2025.
- Working Paper
Index Rebalancing and Stock Market Composition: Do Indexes Time the Market?
By: Marco Sammon and John J. Shim
Value-weighted indexes must rebalance in response to stock market composition changes, e.g., issuance, buybacks, and IPOs. In doing so, existing index funds implicitly engage in market timing. Index funds’ long-short rebalancing portfolios have a -3.5% annual return... View Details
Sammon, Marco, and John J. Shim. "Index Rebalancing and Stock Market Composition: Do Indexes Time the Market?" SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 5080459, May 2025.
- May 2025
- Case
The Micro-Family Office: Aamir Rehman
By: Lauren Cohen and Sophia Pan
With a successful career and strong academic credentials, Aamir Rehman sought to design a life grounded in autonomy. For him, this meant serving on boards, continuing his professorship, and ensuring a secure and comfortable life for his family. While he didn’t possess... View Details
Keywords: Family Office; Organization Design; Family And Friends; Family; Balance; Stability; Trends And Opportunities; Wealth Management; Family Business; Investment; Financial Strategy; Personal Finance; Investment Portfolio; Private Equity; Organizational Design; Family and Family Relationships; Happiness; Satisfaction; Balance and Stability; Human Capital; Compensation and Benefits; Economy; Trends; Business Model; New Jersey; United States
- April 2025
- Case
Techint: Strategic Choices for Community Impact
By: Lauren Cohen, Virak Prum, Kenneth Charman, Pedro Levindo and Mariana Cal
In early 2024 Erika Bienek, Chief Community Relations Officer at Techint, had to decide whether to invest in a new company-owned and operated technical school in Veracruz, Mexico, or invest instead in strengthening the city’s public education system. Techint, a global... View Details
Keywords: Technical Institutes; Community Relations; Social Impact; Argentina; Mexico; Brazil; Conglomerate; Stakeholder Management; Government And Business; Community Impact; Philanthropy; Business Conglomerates; Business Subsidiaries; Business Headquarters; Family Business; Decision Making; Private Sector; Public Sector; Education; Curriculum and Courses; Middle School Education; Secondary Education; Teaching; Training; Learning; Energy; Engineering; Construction; Values and Beliefs; Geography; Global Range; Local Range; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Globalized Firms and Management; Government Legislation; Recruitment; Innovation and Invention; Disruptive Innovation; Knowledge; Resource Allocation; Industry Clusters; Infrastructure; Family Ownership; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Business and Community Relations; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Business and Government Relations; Creativity; Reputation; Social and Collaborative Networks; Civil Society or Community; Social Issues; Poverty; Strategy; Construction Industry; Education Industry; Energy Industry; Industrial Products Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Steel Industry; Europe; Italy; Latin America; North and Central America; Mexico; North America; United States; South America; Argentina; Buenos Aires; Brazil
- April 2025
- Article
The Disappearing Index Effect
By: Robin Greenwood and Marco Sammon
The abnormal return associated with a stock being added to the S&P 500 has fallen from an average
of 7.4% in the 1990s to 0.3% over the past decade. This has occurred despite a significant increase in the
share of stock market assets linked to the index. A similar... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, and Marco Sammon. "The Disappearing Index Effect." Journal of Finance 80, no. 2 (April 2025): 657–698.
- March 2025
- Case
Silicon Valley Bank: Gone in 36 Hours
This case examines factors contributing to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, an event as unpredicted as it was quick. SVB funded nearly half of all U.S. venture-backed startups and at the end of 2022 held $173 billion in deposits, largely... View Details
Keywords: Accounting Standards; Bank Runs; Financial Accounting; Financial Reporting; Social Media; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Investment Portfolio; Interest Rates; Debt Securities; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Statements; Risk Management; Failure; Fair Value Accounting; Credit; Corporate Governance; Financial Services Industry; Banking Industry; United States
Kang, Jung Koo, Krishna G. Palepu, Charles C.Y. Wang, and David Lane. "Silicon Valley Bank: Gone in 36 Hours." Harvard Business School Case 125-094, March 2025.
- March 2025 (Revised April 2025)
- Case
Perplexity: Redefining Search
By: Suraj Srinivasan, Michelle Hu, Sriraghav Srinivasan and Radhika Kak
By early 2025, Perplexity had rapidly evolved from a modest startup into a popular "answer engine" valued at $9 billion. The company had boldly positioned itself as the disruptor to Google aiming to redefine search for the AI age. Through novel AI... View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Venture Capital; Innovation Leadership; Technological Innovation; Internet and the Web; Business Startups; Competitive Strategy; Business Model; Technology Industry; United States
Srinivasan, Suraj, Michelle Hu, Sriraghav Srinivasan, and Radhika Kak. "Perplexity: Redefining Search." Harvard Business School Case 125-093, March 2025. (Revised April 2025.)
- 2025
- Working Paper
How to Choose Among Technologies with Learning Curves: Making Better Investment Decisions
By: Christian Kaps and Arielle Anderer
Learning curves, the fact that technologies improve as a function of cumulative experience or investment, are desirable-think inexpensive solar panels or higher performing semiconductors. But, for firms that need to pick one technology among several candidates, such as... View Details
Keywords: Learning Curve; Technology; Innovation; Batteries; Energy Storage; Sequential Decision Making; TELCO; Exploration; Exploitation; Problems and Challenges; Cost vs Benefits; Technology Adoption; Battery Industry
Kaps, Christian, and Arielle Anderer. "How to Choose Among Technologies with Learning Curves: Making Better Investment Decisions." Working Paper, March 2025.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Dynamic Personalization with Multiple Customer Signals: Multi-Response State Representation in Reinforcement Learning
Reinforcement learning (RL) offers potential for optimizing sequences of customer interactions by modeling the relationships
between customer states, company actions, and long-term value. However, its practical implementation often faces significant
challenges.... View Details
Keywords: Dynamic Policy; Deep Reinforcement Learning; Representation Learning; Dynamic Difficulty Adjustment; Latent Variable Models; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Value and Value Chain; Foreign Direct Investment; Analytics and Data Science
Ma, Liangzong, Ta-Wei Huang, Eva Ascarza, and Ayelet Israeli. "Dynamic Personalization with Multiple Customer Signals: Multi-Response State Representation in Reinforcement Learning." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-037, February 2025.
- January 2025 (Revised March 2025)
- Case
Hunter Point Capital
By: Josh Lerner, John D. Dionne and Srimayi Mylavarapu
In the spring of 2023, Hunter Point Capital faced a pivotal decision that could define its trajectory as a new player in the growing GP stakes business. As the firm neared completion of three high-profile GP stakes investments, consuming nearly a third of its initial... View Details
Keywords: Investment Funds; Business Strategy; Diversification; Expansion; Growth and Development Strategy; Opportunities
Lerner, Josh, John D. Dionne, and Srimayi Mylavarapu. "Hunter Point Capital." Harvard Business School Case 225-058, January 2025. (Revised March 2025.)
- January 2025
- Case
Negotiating a Legacy at Sustainable Harvest (A)
By: Jillian Jordan, Julian Zlatev, Alicia Dadlani and Martha Hostetter
The specialty coffee importer Sustainable Harvest was the first certified B Corp in the coffee industry due to its investments in building coffee farmers’ capacity and livelihood. But in 2022, after coffee prices plummeted and the company’s bank declined to extend its... View Details
Keywords: Negotiation; Mergers and Acquisitions; Trust; Ethics; Plant-Based Agribusiness; Volatility; Futures and Commodity Futures; Social Enterprise; Valuation; Business Model; Credit; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Food and Beverage Industry; United States; Europe
Jordan, Jillian, Julian Zlatev, Alicia Dadlani, and Martha Hostetter. "Negotiating a Legacy at Sustainable Harvest (A)." Harvard Business School Case 925-010, January 2025.
- January 2025
- Supplement
Negotiating a Legacy at Sustainable Harvest (B)
By: Jillian Jordan, Julian Zlatev, Alicia Dadlani and Martha Hostetter
The specialty coffee importer Sustainable Harvest was the first certified B Corp in the coffee industry due to its investments in building coffee farmers’ capacity and livelihood. But in 2022, after coffee prices plummeted and the company’s bank declined to extend its... View Details
Keywords: Negotiation; Mergers and Acquisitions; Trust; Ethics; Plant-Based Agribusiness; Volatility; Futures and Commodity Futures; Social Enterprise; Valuation; Business Model; Credit; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Food and Beverage Industry; United States; Europe
Jordan, Jillian, Julian Zlatev, Alicia Dadlani, and Martha Hostetter. "Negotiating a Legacy at Sustainable Harvest (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 925-011, January 2025.
- January 2025
- Case
A Tiger in the Tank: Exxon Sues Investors
By: Clayton S. Rose, Sarah Sasso and James Weber
In June 2024, investors were trying to make sense of ExxonMobil’s (Exxon) lawsuit against two impact investors, Arjuna Capital (Arjuna) and Follow This, that had just been dismissed by the U.S. District Court of Northern Texas. Exxon’s suit challenged the rights of two... View Details
Keywords: Disruption; Talent and Talent Management; Customer Satisfaction; Decision Making; Demographics; Ethics; Corporate Accountability; Employees; Recruitment; Retention; Leadership; Crisis Management; Risk Management; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Civil Society or Community; Social Issues; Adaptation; Investment Activism; Lawsuits and Litigation; Business and Shareholder Relations; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Health Industry; Energy Industry; United States; Netherlands; Norway
Rose, Clayton S., Sarah Sasso, and James Weber. "A Tiger in the Tank: Exxon Sues Investors." Harvard Business School Case 325-015, January 2025.
- January 2025
- Case
Apax Partners: Deciding Whether to Bid for Trader Corp.
By: Benjamin C. Esty and Edward A. Meyer
Apax Partners’ investment committee was schedule to meet on March 21, 2011, to decide whether to invest in Trader Corporation, a Canadian classified advertising business for used automobiles with both print (magazines) and digital (website) distribution. What made this... View Details
Keywords: Value Creation; Network Effects; Private Equity; Growth Management; Digital Marketing; Business Strategy; Competitive Advantage; E-commerce; Valuation; Competition; Digital Platforms; Digital Strategy; Digital Transformation; Transition; Investment; Risk and Uncertainty; Advertising Industry; Auto Industry; Information Industry; Canada; United Kingdom; New York (state, US); New York (city, NY)
- December 2024 (Revised January 2025)
- Case
Balancing Returns and Responsibilities at Raya Partners
By: Arthur Segel, Ephraim Mernick, Derek C. M. van Bever and Olivia Barba
Raya Partners, a private equity firm, faces a crucial decision regarding Asa Specialty Coatings Company (ASCC). The dilemma involves shifting ASCC's manufacturing operations to Mexico, a move that would boost profitability and reduce emissions but result in significant... View Details
Keywords: Factories, Labs, and Plants; Communication Strategy; Private Equity; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Environmental Sustainability; Values and Beliefs; Financial Services Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Mexico; Vermont
Segel, Arthur, Ephraim Mernick, Derek C. M. van Bever, and Olivia Barba. "Balancing Returns and Responsibilities at Raya Partners." Harvard Business School Case 325-068, December 2024. (Revised January 2025.)
- November 2024 (Revised July 2025)
- Case
Polish Agro: Where Do We Grow from Here?
By: Willy C. Shih, Lena Duchene and Daniela Beyersdorfer
By July 2024, Polish Agro had grown into one of Poland’s fastest-growing agribusinesses, with €230 million in revenue, 82 employees, and operations across Northern Poland. The company supported farmers with essential agricultural inputs like fertilizers and seeds,... View Details
Keywords: Plant-Based Agribusiness; Distribution; Volatility; Customer Focus and Relationships; Customer Value and Value Chain; Climate Change; Environmental Regulation; Profit; Trade; Digital Strategy; Innovation Strategy; Crisis Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Advertising; Brands and Branding; E-commerce; Business and Community Relations; Networks; Adaptation; Adoption; Competitive Advantage; Business Model; Health Pandemics; War; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Europe; Poland
Shih, Willy C., Lena Duchene, and Daniela Beyersdorfer. "Polish Agro: Where Do We Grow from Here?" Harvard Business School Case 625-061, November 2024. (Revised July 2025.)