Publications

2024
Working Paper

How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues

By: Nicola Gennaioli, Marta Leva, Raphael Schoenle and Andrei Shleifer

In a model of memory and selective recall, household inflation expectations remain rigid when inflation is anchored but exhibit sharp instability during inflation surges, as similarity prompts retrieval of forgotten high-inflation experiences. Using data from the New... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Inflation and Deflation; Personal Finance

January 2024 (Revised February 2024)
Exercise

Travelogo: Understanding Customer Journeys

By: Eva Ascarza, Nicolas Padilla and Oded Netzer

In late May 2023, Sarah Merino, the newly appointed manager of the Customer Insights group at Travelogo—an online travel booking platform—initiates a comprehensive analysis of clickstream data to understand the varied behaviors and needs of their users. In preparation... View Details

Keywords: Customer Relationship Management; Analysis; Analytics and Data Science; Marketing Strategy; Segmentation; Consumer Behavior; Travel Industry; United States

Purchase

2023
Working Paper

The Customer Journey as a Source of Information

By: Nicolas Padilla, Eva Ascarza and Oded Netzer

In the face of heightened data privacy concerns and diminishing third-party data access, firms are placing increased emphasis on first-party data (1PD) for marketing decisions. However, in environments with infrequent purchases, reliance on past purchases 1PD... View Details

Keywords: Customer Journey; Privacy; Consumer Behavior; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning; Customer Focus and Relationships

2023
Working Paper

How People Use Statistics

By: Pedro Bordalo, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the problem. We offer a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Microeconomics; Mathematical Methods; Behavioral Finance

Purchase

2023
Working Paper

Organizational Responses to Product Cycles

By: Achyuta Adhvaryu, Vittorio Bassi, Anant Nyshadham, Jorge Tamayo and Nicolas Torres

Product cycles entail the mass production of new—and often increasingly complex—products on a regular basis. How do firms manage these changes? We use granular daily data from a leading automobile manufacturer to study the organizational impacts of introducing new... View Details

Keywords: Training; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Knowledge Management; Production; Product; Organizational Structure; Auto Industry; Argentina

August 2023
Article

Taking Stock of the Implementation Gap in Climate Policy

By: Taryn Fransen, Jonas Meckling, Anna Stunzi, Tobias Schmidt, Florian Egli, Nicolas Schmid and Christopher Beaton

A gap persists between the emissions reductions pledged by countries under the Paris Agreement and those resulting from their domestic policies. We argue that this gap in fact contains two parts: one in the policies that countries adopt, and the other in the outcomes... View Details

Keywords: Emission Reduction; Outcome or Result; Policy; Environmental Regulation; Equality and Inequality

Purchase

2022
Working Paper

Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges... View Details

Keywords: Overreaction; Rational Expectations; Macroeconomics; Market Participation; Social Psychology

October 2021
Article

Overcoming the Cold Start Problem of CRM Using a Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach

By: Nicolas Padilla and Eva Ascarza

The success of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) programs ultimately depends on the firm's ability to understand consumers' preferences and precisely capture how these preferences may differ across customers. Only by understanding customer heterogeneity, firms can... View Details

Keywords: Customer Management; Targeting; Deep Exponential Families; Probabilistic Machine Learning; Cold Start Problem; Customer Relationship Management; Programs; Consumer Behavior; Analysis

September 2021
Article

Diagnostic Bubbles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Speculation; Diagnostic Expectations; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods

2021
Working Paper

Salience

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

We review the fast-growing work on salience and economic behavior. Psychological research shows that salient stimuli attract human attention “bottom up” due to their high contrast with surroundings, their surprising nature relative to recalled experiences, or their... View Details

Keywords: Salience; Economic Behavior; Bottom Up Attention; Microeconomics; Decision Making; Behavior

March 2021
Article

Parental Burnout Around the Globe: A 42-Country Study

By: Isabelle Roskam, Joyce Aguiar, Ege Akgun, Gizem Arikan, Mariana Artavia, Herve Avalosse, Kaisa Aunola, Michael Bader, Claire Bahati, Elizabeth J. Barham, Elaine Besson, Wim Beyers, Emilie Boujut, Maria Elena Brianda, Anna Brytek-Matera, Neomie Carbonneau, Filipa Cesar, Bin-Bin Chen, Geraldine Dorard, Luciana Carla dos Santos Elias, Sandra Dunsmuir, Natalia Egorova, Nicolas Favez, Anne-Marie Fontaine, Heather Foran, Julia Fricke, Kaichiro Furutani, Laura Gallee, Myrna Gannage, Maria Gaspar, Lucie Godbout, Amit Goldenberg, James J. Gross, Maria Ancuta Gurza, Ruby Hall, Muhammad Aamir Hashmi, Ogma Hatta, Mai Helmy, Thi Van Hoang, Mai Trang Huynh, Emerence Kaneza, Taishi Kawamoto, Goran Knezevic, Bassantea Lodegaena Kpassagou, Ljiljana B. Lazarevic, Sarah Le Vigouroux, Astrid Lebert-Charron, Vanessa Leme, Gao-Xian Lin, Carolyn MacCann, Denisse Manrique-Millones, Marisa Marias, Maria Isabel Miranda-Orrego, Marina Miscioscia, Clara Morgades-Bamba, Seyyedeh Fatemeh Mousavi, Badra Moutassem-Mimouni, Ana Muntean, Hugh Murphy, Alexis Ndayizigiye, Josue Ngnombouowo Tenkue, Sally Olderbak, Sophie Ornawka, Fatumo Osman, Daniela Oyarce-Cadiz, Pablo A Perez-Diaz, Konstantinos V Petrides, Claudia Pineda-Marin, Katharina Prandstetter, Alena Prikhidko, Ricardo T Ricci, Fernando Salinas-Quiroz, Raquel Sanchez-Rodriguez, Ainize Sarrionandia, Celine Scola, Vincent Sezibera, Paola Silva, Alessandra Simonelli, Bart Soenens, Emma Sorbring, Matilda Sorkkila, Charlotte Schrooyen, Elena Stanculescu, Elena Starchenkova, Dorota Szczygiel, Javier Tapia, Thi Minh Thuy Tri, Melissa Tremblay, A. Meltem Ustandag-Budak, Maday Valdes Pacheco, Hedwig van Bakel, Lesley Verhofstadt, Jaqueline Wendland, Saengduean Yotanyamaneewong and Moira Mikolajczak

High levels of stress in the parenting domain can lead to parental burnout, a condition that has severe consequences for both parents and children. It is not yet clear, however, whether parental burnout varies by culture, and if so, why it might do so. In this study,... View Details

Keywords: Exhaustion; Culture; Individualism; Collectivism; Prevalence; Family and Family Relationships; Values and Beliefs; Global Range

Article

Memory and Representativeness

By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, Frederik Schwerter and Andrei Shleifer

We explore the idea that judgment by representativeness reflects the workings of episodic memory, especially interference. In a new laboratory experiment on cued recall, participants are shown two groups of images with different distributions of colors. We find that i)... View Details

Keywords: Cued Recall; Interference; Similarity; Probabilistic Judgments; Heuristics And Biases

March 2019
Article

Beliefs about Gender

By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

We conduct laboratory experiments that explore how gender stereotypes shape beliefs about ability of oneself and others in different categories of knowledge. The data reveal two patterns. First, men’s and women’s beliefs about both oneself and others exceed observed... View Details

Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Perspective; Prejudice and Bias; Gender

2018
Working Paper

Diagnostic Bubbles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

Keywords: Bubbles; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods