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- July–August 2024
- Article
Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals
By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response,
which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment
effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to... View Details
- June 2024
- Article
Rationalizing Outcomes: Interdependent Learning in Competitive Markets
By: Anoop R. Menon and Dennis Yao
In this article we use simulation models to explore interdependent learning in competitive markets. Such interactions require attention to both the mental representations held by the management of the focal firm as well as the beliefs of that management about the... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Design of Panel Experiments with Spatial and Temporal Interference
By: Tu Ni, Iavor Bojinov and Jinglong Zhao
One of the main practical challenges companies face when running experiments (or A/B tests) over a panel is interference, the setting where one experimental unit's treatment assignment at one time period impacts another's outcomes, possibly at the following time... View Details
Keywords: Research
- 2023
- Working Paper
Debiasing Treatment Effect Estimation for Privacy-Protected Data: A Model Auditing and Calibration Approach
By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
Data-driven targeted interventions have become a powerful tool for organizations to optimize business outcomes
by utilizing individual-level data from experiments. A key element of this process is the estimation
of Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE), which... View Details
- July 2023
- Article
Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations
By: Dawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner and TzuHwan Seet
In 2001, Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander of the Yale University Investments Office developed a deterministic model for estimating future cash flows and valuations for the Yale endowment’s private equity portfolio. Their model, which is simple and intuitive, is still... View Details
- June 2023 (Revised September 2023)
- Simulation
Managing the Customer Journey Marketing Simulation: Adobe's Data-Driven Operating Model (DDOM)
By: Sunil Gupta, Rajiv Lal and Celine Chammas
Adobe started monitoring Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), one of its primary metrics, when it shifted from selling its software in a box to selling the software as a subscription-based cloud service. They wanted to know when, where, and how much to invest in marketing.... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation
By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor Bojinov
Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to... View Details
- April 2023
- Article
The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity
By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu
We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms'... View Details
- February 2023 (Revised March 2024)
- Supplement
Shanty Real Estate: Teaching Note Supplement
By: Michael Luca and Jesse M. Shapiro
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Distributionally Robust Causal Inference with Observational Data
By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
We consider the estimation of average treatment effects in observational studies and propose a new framework of robust causal inference with unobserved confounders. Our approach is based on distributionally robust optimization and proceeds in two steps. We first... View Details
- November 2022
- Article
Measuring Inequality beyond the Gini Coefficient May Clarify Conflicting Findings
By: Kristin Blesch, Oliver P. Hauser and Jon M. Jachimowicz
Prior research has found mixed results on how economic inequality is related to various outcomes. These contradicting findings may in part stem from a predominant focus on the Gini coefficient, which only narrowly captures inequality. Here, we conceptualize the... View Details
- October 2022
- Exercise
Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for Homebuyer 1
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
- October 2022
- Exercise
Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for Homebuyer 2
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
- October 2022
- Exercise
Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for Homebuyer 3
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
- October 2022
- Exercise
Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for iBuyer 1
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
- October 2022
- Exercise
Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for iBuyer 2
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
- October 2022
- Exercise
Shanty Real Estate: Confidential Information for iBuyer 3
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
- October 2022
- Exercise
Shanty Real Estate: Updated Confidential Information for Homebuyer
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
- October 2022
- Exercise
Shanty Real Estate: Updated Confidential Information for iBuyer
By: Michael Luca, Jesse M. Shapiro and Nathan Sun
Shanty is a simulation in which students inhabit the role of either a traditional home buyer or an iBuyer, both bidding on the same condo. The traditional home buyer has access to a “comp sheet” of similar properties that have recently sold, and has done a walkthrough.... View Details
- October–December 2022
- Article
Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem
By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius
Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details