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    • All HBS Web  (368)
      • Faculty Publications  (35)

      Revenue EstimationRemove Revenue Estimation →

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      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Fiscal Externalities of Transaction Taxes: Evidence from the Los Angeles Mansion Tax

      By: Daniel Green, Vikram Jambulapati, Jack Liebersohn and Tejaswi Velayudhan
      We estimate the fiscal externalities of a property transfer tax, the Los Angeles “Mansion Tax”, on the revenues from property taxes when assessed values are closely tied to transactions. In California, as in over half of U.S. states, growth in tax as- sessments... View Details
      Keywords: Public Finance; Taxation; Real Estate; Property Demand
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      Green, Daniel, Vikram Jambulapati, Jack Liebersohn, and Tejaswi Velayudhan. "Fiscal Externalities of Transaction Taxes: Evidence from the Los Angeles Mansion Tax." SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 5273034, June 2025.
      • February 2025 (Revised March 2025)
      • Case

      Accounting for Bitcoin at Block

      By: Charles C.Y. Wang, Seil Kim and Sa-Pyung Sean Shin
      Abstract: This case explores Block Inc.'s accounting practices for Bitcoin transactions and their impact on financial reporting. Following a 10% stock price drop after missing revenue estimates in Q3 2024, Block faced scrutiny over its Bitcoin-driven revenue model.... View Details
      Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Bitcoin
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      Wang, Charles C.Y., Seil Kim, and Sa-Pyung Sean Shin. "Accounting for Bitcoin at Block." Harvard Business School Case 125-072, February 2025. (Revised March 2025.)
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending

      By: Lisa De Simone, Peiyi Jin and Daniel Rabetti
      This study establishes a plausible causal link between tax-planning-induced illiquidity and credit risks in lending markets. Exploiting an exogenous tax shock imposed by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on cryptocurrency gains, along with millions of transactions in... View Details
      Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Taxation; Financial Liquidity; Credit; Financing and Loans; Financial Markets
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      De Simone, Lisa, Peiyi Jin, and Daniel Rabetti. "Tax Planning, Illiquidity, and Credit Risks: Evidence from DeFi Lending." Working Paper, February 2025.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      What Makes Players Pay? An Empirical Investigation of In-Game Lotteries

      By: Tomomichi Amano and Andrey Simonov
      In 2020, gamers spent more than $15 billion on loot boxes, lotteries of virtual items in video games. Paid loot boxes are contentious. Game producers argue that loot boxes complement the gameplay and expenditures on loot boxes reflect players’ enjoyment of the game.... View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Behavior; Policy; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Product Design; Ethics; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Video Game Industry
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      Amano, Tomomichi, and Andrey Simonov. "What Makes Players Pay? An Empirical Investigation of In-Game Lotteries." Columbia Business School Research Paper Series, No. 4355019, June 2024.
      • June 2024 (Revised September 2024)
      • Case

      Major League Baseball: Changing the Rules of America's Pastime

      By: Stephen A. Greyser, Mac Levin and Brent Schwarz
      This case describes the efforts of Major League Baseball (MLB) to make meaningful changes in the rules affecting the ways the game is played. These changes are intended to speed the pace of the game and make it more appealing to younger fans. The principal changes... View Details
      Keywords: Change Management; Age; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Leading Change; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Demand and Consumers; Sports Industry
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      Greyser, Stephen A., Mac Levin, and Brent Schwarz. "Major League Baseball: Changing the Rules of America's Pastime." Harvard Business School Case 924-307, June 2024. (Revised September 2024.)
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Exports in Disguise? Trade Rerouting During the U.S.-China Trade War

      By: Ebehi Iyoha, Edmund Malesky, Jaya Wen and Sung-Ju Wu
      This paper introduces a new measure of tariff evasion through rerouting and applies it to the 2018 U.S.–China trade war, focusing on Vietnam as a transit country. We use transaction-level trade data and define rerouting as the flow of a granular eight-digit Harmonized... View Details
      Keywords: Trade; International Relations; Logistics; China; Viet Nam; United States
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      Iyoha, Ebehi, Edmund Malesky, Jaya Wen, and Sung-Ju Wu. "Exports in Disguise? Trade Rerouting During the U.S.-China Trade War." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-072, May 2024. (Revised March 2025.)
      • January 2024
      • Article

      Cost of Exempting Sole Orphan Drugs from Medicare Negotiation

      By: Matthew Vogel, Olivia Zhao, William B. Feldman, Amitabh Chandra, Aaron S. Kesselheim and Benjamin N. Rome
      Importance: The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) requires Medicare to negotiate prices for some high-spending drugs but exempts drugs approved solely for the treatment of a single rare disease.
      Objective: To estimate Medicare spending and global... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Insurance; Price; Health Industry
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      Vogel, Matthew, Olivia Zhao, William B. Feldman, Amitabh Chandra, Aaron S. Kesselheim, and Benjamin N. Rome. "Cost of Exempting Sole Orphan Drugs from Medicare Negotiation." JAMA Internal Medicine 184, no. 1 (January 2024): 63–69.
      • July–August 2023
      • Article

      Demand Learning and Pricing for Varying Assortments

      By: Kris Ferreira and Emily Mower
      Problem Definition: We consider the problem of demand learning and pricing for retailers who offer assortments of substitutable products that change frequently, e.g., due to limited inventory, perishable or time-sensitive products, or the retailer’s desire to... View Details
      Keywords: Experiments; Pricing And Revenue Management; Retailing; Demand Estimation; Pricing Algorithm; Marketing; Price; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods
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      Ferreira, Kris, and Emily Mower. "Demand Learning and Pricing for Varying Assortments." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 25, no. 4 (July–August 2023): 1227–1244. (Finalist, Practice-Based Research Competition, MSOM (2021) and Finalist, Revenue Management & Pricing Section Practice Award, INFORMS (2019).)
      • January 2023 (Revised August 2023)
      • Case

      Veeva Systems and the Transformation to a Public Benefit Corporation

      By: Ranjay Gulati and Allison M. Ciechanover
      Peter Gassner, the co-founder and CEO of Veeva Systems, steered the company through rapid scaling from its launch in 2007 to 2022. Year after year, the company had exceeded expectations, with its market capitalization reaching $50 billion at its peak. By 2022, the... View Details
      Keywords: Transformation; Corporate Governance; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Organizational Culture; Information Technology Industry; Technology Industry; United States; California
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      Gulati, Ranjay, and Allison M. Ciechanover. "Veeva Systems and the Transformation to a Public Benefit Corporation." Harvard Business School Case 423-045, January 2023. (Revised August 2023.)
      • August 2022
      • Supplement

      Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing Recommendations

      By: Ayelet Israeli
      This exercise can be used in conjunction with the main case "Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing" to facilitate class discussion without requiring data analysis from the students. Instead, the exercise presents reports that were created by the data science team to answer the... View Details
      Keywords: Pricing; Pricing Algorithms; Dynamic Pricing; Ecommerce; Pricing Strategy; Pricing And Revenue Management; Apparel; Singapore; Startup; Demand Estimation; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Exercise; Price; Internet and the Web; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Retail Industry; Fashion Industry; Singapore
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      Israeli, Ayelet. "Zalora: Data-Driven Pricing Recommendations." Harvard Business School Supplement 523-032, August 2022.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Dirty Money: How Banks Influence Financial Crime

      By: Joseph Pacelli, Janet Gao, Jan Schneemeier and Yufeng Wu
      On September 21st, 2020, a consortium of international journalists leaked nearly 2,500 suspicious activity reports (SAR) obtained from the U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, exposing nearly $2 trillion of money laundering activity. The event raises important... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Institutions; Crime and Corruption; Policy
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      Pacelli, Joseph, Janet Gao, Jan Schneemeier, and Yufeng Wu. "Dirty Money: How Banks Influence Financial Crime." Working Paper, July 2021.
      • January 2021
      • Article

      State and Local Government Employment in the COVID-19 Crisis

      By: Daniel Green and Erik Loualiche
      Local governments are facing large losses in revenues and increased expenditures because of the COVID-19 crisis. We document a causal relationship between fiscal pressures induced by COVID-19 and the layoffs of state and local government workers. States that depend... View Details
      Keywords: Local Government; Municipal Finance; Public Finance; Fiscal Capacity; Fiscal Policy; Governance; Local Range; Health Pandemics; Employment; Finance; Policy; Public Sector
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      Green, Daniel, and Erik Loualiche. "State and Local Government Employment in the COVID-19 Crisis." Art. 104321. Journal of Public Economics 193 (January 2021).
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes

      By: Jeremy Yang, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon and Sinan Aral
      Decision makers often want to target interventions so as to maximize an outcome that is observed only in the long term. This typically requires delaying decisions until the outcome is observed or relying on simple short-term proxies for the long-term outcome. Here we... View Details
      Keywords: Targeted Marketing; Optimization; Churn Management; Marketing; Customer Relationship Management; Policy; Learning; Outcome or Result
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      Yang, Jeremy, Dean Eckles, Paramveer Dhillon, and Sinan Aral. "Targeting for Long-Term Outcomes." Working Paper, October 2020.
      • April 2020 (Revised October 2021)
      • Case

      SpaceX, Economies of Scale, and a Revolution in Space Access

      By: Matthew C. Weinzierl, Kylie Lucas and Mehak Sarang
      From the time he transformed the world of online banking, Elon Musk established himself as a bold innovator. After selling X.com to PayPal in 2002, he founded a series of revolutionary start-ups, starting with Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Hoping to "make... View Details
      Keywords: Space Tech; Space Access; Vision; Economies Of Scale; Technological Innovation; Emerging Markets; Commercialization; Finance; Aerospace Industry
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      Weinzierl, Matthew C., Kylie Lucas, and Mehak Sarang. "SpaceX, Economies of Scale, and a Revolution in Space Access." Harvard Business School Case 720-027, April 2020. (Revised October 2021.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time

      By: Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland and Peter K. Schott
      We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict U.S. stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate U.S.... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Stock Returns; Health Pandemics; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Alfaro, Laura, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland, and Peter K. Schott. "Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26950, April 2020. (Revised May 2020.)
      • August 2019
      • Article

      When and How to Diversify—A Multicategory Utility Model for Personalized Content Recommendation

      By: Yicheng Song, Nachiketa Sahoo and Elie Ofek
      Sometimes we desire change, a break from the same or an opportunity to fulfill different aspects of our needs. Noting that consumers seek variety, several approaches have been developed to diversify items recommended by personalized recommender systems. However,... View Details
      Keywords: Recommender Systems; Personalization; Recommendation Diversity; Variety Seeking; Collaborative Filtering; Consumer Utility Models; Digital Media; Clickstream Analysis; Learning-to-rank; Consumer Behavior; Media; Customization and Personalization; Strategy; Mathematical Methods
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      Song, Yicheng, Nachiketa Sahoo, and Elie Ofek. "When and How to Diversify—A Multicategory Utility Model for Personalized Content Recommendation." Management Science 65, no. 8 (August 2019): 3737–3757.
      • March 2018
      • Article

      Financing the African Colonial State: The Revenue Imperative and Forced Labor

      By: Marlous van Waijenburg
      Although recent studies on African colonial tax systems have deepened our understanding of early fiscal capacity building efforts in the region, they have largely ignored the contributions from a widely used but invisible source of state revenue: that of labor... View Details
      Keywords: Colonial Institutions; Labor Coercion; Taxation; Africa
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      van Waijenburg, Marlous. "Financing the African Colonial State: The Revenue Imperative and Forced Labor." Journal of Economic History 78, no. 1 (March 2018): 40–80.
      • July 2016
      • Article

      Taxation, Corruption, and Growth

      By: Philippe Aghion, Ufuk Akcigit, Julia Cagé and William R. Kerr
      We build an endogenous growth model to analyze the relationships between taxation, corruption, and economic growth. Entrepreneurs lie at the center of the model and face disincentive effects from taxation but acquire positive benefits from public infrastructure.... View Details
      Keywords: Endogenous Growth; Public Goods; Corruption; Crime and Corruption; Entrepreneurship; Taxation; Economic Growth
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      Aghion, Philippe, Ufuk Akcigit, Julia Cagé, and William R. Kerr. "Taxation, Corruption, and Growth." Special Issue on The Economics of Entrepreneurship. European Economic Review 86 (July 2016): 24–51.
      • Article

      Tax Aversion in Labor Supply

      By: Judd B. Kessler and Michael I. Norton
      In a real-effort laboratory experiment, labor supply decreases more with the introduction of a tax than with a financially equivalent drop in wages. This “tax aversion” is large in magnitude: when we decompose the productivity decrease that arises from taxation, we... View Details
      Keywords: Taxes; Labor Supply; Productivity; Experiments; Wages; Human Capital; Performance Productivity; Taxation
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      Kessler, Judd B., and Michael I. Norton. "Tax Aversion in Labor Supply." Special Issue on Taxation, Social Norms and Compliance. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 124 (April 2016): 15–28.
      • Winter 2016
      • Article

      Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization

      By: Kris J. Ferreira, Bin Hong Alex Lee and David Simchi-Levi
      We present our work with an online retailer, Rue La La, as an example of how a retailer can use its wealth of data to optimize pricing decisions on a daily basis. Rue La La is in the online fashion sample sales industry, where they offer extremely limited-time... View Details
      Keywords: Internet and the Web; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Revenue; Sales; Retail Industry
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      Ferreira, Kris J., Bin Hong Alex Lee, and David Simchi-Levi. "Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18, no. 1 (Winter 2016): 69–88.
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