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Publications

Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (305)
      • Faculty Publications  (33)

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      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Performance Capital Flows in DC Pensions

      By: Bryan Gutierrez Cortez, Victoria Ivashina and Juliana Salomao
      Are defined contribution (DC) pension funds' capital flows sensitive to performance? We examine pressures from individual account holders who can switch their pension managers. Using novel data on retirement accounts for nearly 10 million individuals, we analyze... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Funds; Retirement; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Management; Investment Portfolio; Financial Services Industry
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      Gutierrez Cortez, Bryan, Victoria Ivashina, and Juliana Salomao. "Performance Capital Flows in DC Pensions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33693, April 2025.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Insufficiently Justified Disparate Impact: A New Criterion for Subgroup Fairness

      By: Neil Menghani, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
      In this paper, we develop a new criterion, "insufficiently justified disparate impact" (IJDI), for assessing whether recommendations (binarized predictions) made by an algorithmic decision support tool are fair. Our novel, utility-based IJDI criterion evaluates false... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Prejudice and Bias
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      Menghani, Neil, Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Insufficiently Justified Disparate Impact: A New Criterion for Subgroup Fairness." Working Paper, June 2023.
      • June 2023 (Revised February 2024)
      • Case

      Betting on Green Steel

      By: George Serafeim and Sofoklis Melissovas
      'Betting on Green Steel' traces the innovative journey embarked upon by a group of MBA students who have set out to conceive a novel steelmaker that pioneers the production of green steel. The ensemble is confronted with a series of critical choices that will shape the... View Details
      Keywords: Decarbonization; Sustainability Management; Technology; Industrialization; Climate Risk; Energy; Entrepreneurship; Environmental Sustainability; Technology Adoption; Climate Change; Innovation and Invention; Business Strategy; Family Business; Steel Industry; Middle East; India
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      Serafeim, George, and Sofoklis Melissovas. "Betting on Green Steel." Harvard Business School Case 123-101, June 2023. (Revised February 2024.)
      • June 2023
      • Case

      Verve Therapeutics: Taking DNA Editing to Heart

      By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai
      Verve Therapeutics, a public biotech company based in Boston, created a novel approach to addressing cardiovascular disease (CVD) - a leading cause of deaths globally. The company's approach was a single shot treatment to permanently lower cholesterol, thus reducing... View Details
      Keywords: AI; Genetic Engineering; Medicine; Health Care and Treatment; Genetics; Innovation Strategy; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Medical Specialties; Innovation and Invention; Entrepreneurship; Biotechnology Industry
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      Ghosh, Shikhar, and Shweta Bagai. "Verve Therapeutics: Taking DNA Editing to Heart." Harvard Business School Case 823-113, June 2023.
      • April 2023
      • Article

      On the Privacy Risks of Algorithmic Recourse

      By: Martin Pawelczyk, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Seth Neel
      As predictive models are increasingly being employed to make consequential decisions, there is a growing emphasis on developing techniques that can provide algorithmic recourse to affected individuals. While such recourses can be immensely beneficial to affected... View Details
      Keywords: Recourse; Privacy Threats; AI and Machine Learning; Information
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      Pawelczyk, Martin, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Seth Neel. "On the Privacy Risks of Algorithmic Recourse." Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS) 206 (April 2023).
      • March 2023
      • Article

      Attracting the Sharks: Corporate Innovation and Securities Class Action Lawsuits

      By: Elisabeth Kempf and Oliver Spalt
      This paper provides novel evidence suggesting that securities class action lawsuits, a central pillar of the U.S. litigation and corporate governance system, can constitute an obstacle to valuable corporate innovation. We first establish that valuable innovation output... View Details
      Keywords: Class-action Litigation; Turnover; Lawsuits and Litigation; Innovation and Invention; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Kempf, Elisabeth, and Oliver Spalt. "Attracting the Sharks: Corporate Innovation and Securities Class Action Lawsuits." Management Science 69, no. 3 (March 2023): 1323–1934.
      • March 2023
      • Article

      Reaching for Rigor and Relevance: Better Marketing Research for a Better World

      By: Shilpa Madan, Gita Venkataramani Johar, Jonah Berger, Pierre Chandon, Rajesh Chandy, Rebecca Hamilton, Leslie John, Aparna Labroo, Peggy J. Liu, John G. Lynch, Nina Mazar, Nicole Mead, Vikas Mittal, Christine Moorman, Michael I. Norton, John Roberts, Dilip Soman, Madhu Viswanathan and Katherine White
      Over the past several decades, scholars have highlighted the obligations and opportunities for marketing as a discipline to play a role in creating a better world — or risk becoming irrelevant for the largest problems facing consumers and society. Climate change,... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Marketing; Social Issues; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Business and Community Relations; Research
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      Madan, Shilpa, Gita Venkataramani Johar, Jonah Berger, Pierre Chandon, Rajesh Chandy, Rebecca Hamilton, Leslie John, Aparna Labroo, Peggy J. Liu, John G. Lynch, Nina Mazar, Nicole Mead, Vikas Mittal, Christine Moorman, Michael I. Norton, John Roberts, Dilip Soman, Madhu Viswanathan, and Katherine White. "Reaching for Rigor and Relevance: Better Marketing Research for a Better World." Marketing Letters 34, no. 1 (March 2023): 1–12.
      • January–February 2023
      • Article

      Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen

      By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu and Najat Khan
      The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred extensive vaccine research worldwide. One crucial part of vaccine development is the phase III clinical trial that assesses the vaccine for safety and efficacy in the prevention of COVID-19. In this work, we enumerate the first... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Health Testing and Trials; Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Research; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Bertsimas, Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu, and Najat Khan. "Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen." INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics 53, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 70–84.
      • December 2022
      • Article

      I Don't 'Recall': The Decision to Delay Innovation Launch to Avoid Costly Product Failure

      By: Byungyeon Kim, Oded Koenigsberg and Elie Ofek
      Innovations embody novel features or cutting-edge components aimed at delivering desired customer benefits. Oftentimes, however, we observe the need to recall new products shortly after their introduction. Indeed, a firm may rush an innovation to market in an attempt... View Details
      Keywords: Innovation Management; Innovation And Strategy; Product Development Strategy; Product Introduction; Quality Control; Product Recalls; Game Theory; Market Timing; Innovation Strategy; Product Launch; Product Development
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      Kim, Byungyeon, Oded Koenigsberg, and Elie Ofek. "I Don't 'Recall': The Decision to Delay Innovation Launch to Avoid Costly Product Failure." Management Science 68, no. 12 (December 2022): 8889–8908.
      • Fall 2022
      • Article

      China's Political Economy and International Backlash: From Interdependence to Security Dilemma Dynamics

      By: Margaret Pearson, Meg Rithmire and Kellee Tsai
      Contrary to expectations that economic interdependence might lessen security conflict between China and the U.S. and its allies, much of the contestation between China and several OECD countries has focused on firms and economic links. This paper explains the... View Details
      Keywords: Globalized Markets and Industries; Government and Politics; Information Technology; China
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      Pearson, Margaret, Meg Rithmire, and Kellee Tsai. "China's Political Economy and International Backlash: From Interdependence to Security Dilemma Dynamics." International Security 47, no. 2 (Fall 2022): 135–176.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Missing Novelty in Drug Development

      By: Joshua Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
      We provide evidence that risk aversion leads pharmaceutical firms to underinvest in radical innovation. We introduce a new measure of drug novelty based on chemical similarity and show that firms face a risk-reward trade-off: novel drug candidates are less likely to... View Details
      Keywords: Drug Development; Risk Aversion; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention; Investment; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Krieger, Joshua, Danielle Li, and Dimitris Papanikolaou. "Missing Novelty in Drug Development." Review of Financial Studies 35, no. 2 (February 2022): 636–679.
      • Article

      Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability

      By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by... View Details
      Keywords: Black Box Explanations; Bayesian Modeling; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology
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      Slack, Dylan, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Granular Corporate Hedging Under Dominant Currency

      By: Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Calani and Liliana Varela
      Foreign currency use can be a source of risk associated with currency mismatches, which firms can hedge using FX derivatives. This paper uncovers five novel facts about firms’ use of foreign currency (FX) derivatives employing a unique dataset covering the universe of... View Details
      Keywords: FX Derivatives; Hedging; Currency; Cash Flow; Emerging Markets; Chile
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      Alfaro, Laura, Mauricio Calani, and Liliana Varela. "Granular Corporate Hedging Under Dominant Currency." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28910, June 2021. (Revised July 2022.)
      • June 2021
      • Article

      From Predictions to Prescriptions: A Data-driven Response to COVID-19

      By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Léonard Boussioux, Ryan Cory-Wright, Arthur Delarue, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Driss Lahlou Kitane, Galit Lukin, Michael Lingzhi Li, Luca Mingardi, Omid Nohadani, Agni Orfanoudaki, Theodore Papalexopoulos, Ivan Paskov, Jean Pauphilet, Omar Skali Lami, Bartolomeo Stellato, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Kimberly Villalobos Carballo, Holly Wiberg and Cynthia Zeng
      The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing measures to slow the disease, at... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science
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      Bertsimas, Dimitris, Léonard Boussioux, Ryan Cory-Wright, Arthur Delarue, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Driss Lahlou Kitane, Galit Lukin, Michael Lingzhi Li, Luca Mingardi, Omid Nohadani, Agni Orfanoudaki, Theodore Papalexopoulos, Ivan Paskov, Jean Pauphilet, Omar Skali Lami, Bartolomeo Stellato, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Kimberly Villalobos Carballo, Holly Wiberg, and Cynthia Zeng. "From Predictions to Prescriptions: A Data-driven Response to COVID-19." Health Care Management Science 24, no. 2 (June 2021): 253–272.
      • Article

      Credit and Punishment: Are Corporate Bankers Disciplined for Risk-Taking?

      By: Janet Gao, Kristoph Kleiner and Joseph Pacelli
      We examine whether bankers face disciplining consequences for structuring poorly performing corporate loans. We construct a novel data set containing the employment histories and loan portfolios of a large sample of corporate bankers and find that corporate credit... View Details
      Keywords: Syndicated Loans; Credit Events; Career Outcomes; Loan Officers; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Risk Management; Corporate Finance; Personal Development and Career
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      Gao, Janet, Kristoph Kleiner, and Joseph Pacelli. "Credit and Punishment: Are Corporate Bankers Disciplined for Risk-Taking?" Review of Financial Studies 33, no. 12 (December 2020): 5706–5749.
      • November–December 2020
      • Article

      The Risks You Can't Foresee: What to Do When There's No Playbook

      By: Robert S. Kaplan, Herman B. Leonard and Anette Mikes
      No matter how good their risk management systems are, companies can’t plan for everything. Some risks are outside people’s realm of experience or so remote no one could have imagined them. Some result from a perfect storm of coinciding breakdowns, and some materialize... View Details
      Keywords: Novel Risks; Risk Management; Crisis Management
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      Kaplan, Robert S., Herman B. Leonard, and Anette Mikes. "The Risks You Can't Foresee: What to Do When There's No Playbook." Harvard Business Review 98, no. 6 (November–December 2020): 40–46.
      • August 2020
      • Article

      Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
      We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details
      Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., Emil Siriwardane, and Adi Sunderam. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 3 (August 2020).
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Novel Risks

      By: Robert S. Kaplan, Herman B. "Dutch" Leonard and Anette Mikes
      All organizations practice some form of risk management to identify and assess routine risks in their operations, supply chains, strategy, and external environment. These risk management policies, however, fail in the presence of novelty. Novel risks arise from... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Management; Policy; Failure; Organizational Change and Adaptation
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      Kaplan, Robert S., Herman B. "Dutch" Leonard, and Anette Mikes. "Novel Risks." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-094, March 2020. (Revised May 2020.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      rTSR: Properties, Determinants, and Consequences of Benchmark Choice

      By: Paul Ma, Jee-Eun Shin and Charles C.Y. Wang
      We develop a measurement-error framework for assessing the quality of relative-performance metrics designed to filter out the systematic component of performance and analyze relative total shareholder return (rTSR)—the predominant metric market participants use to... View Details
      Keywords: Relative TSR; Relative Performance Evaluation; Systematic Risk; Board Of Directors; Compensation Consultants; Style Effects; Executive Compensation; Performance Evaluation; Corporate Governance
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      Ma, Paul, Jee-Eun Shin, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "rTSR: Properties, Determinants, and Consequences of Benchmark Choice." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-112, April 2019. (Revised May 2021.)
      • June 2017
      • Case

      Veolia: Resourcing the World

      By: Gautam Ahuja, Tarun Khanna, Kristina Maslauskaite and Vincent Dessain
      In March 2016, Antoine Frérot, CEO of Veolia, a global environmental services provider, was undergoing an important transformation of the company. In 2013, Frérot presented a growth strategy that focused on increasing the share of industrial clients, enhancing growth... View Details
      Keywords: Strategy; Circular; Emerging Markets; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Growth and Development Strategy; Economy
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      Ahuja, Gautam, Tarun Khanna, Kristina Maslauskaite, and Vincent Dessain. "Veolia: Resourcing the World." Harvard Business School Case 717-505, June 2017.
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