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- November 2024
- Article
Perceptions About Monetary Policy
By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time,... View Details
- 2024
- Chapter
What Future for the Renminbi in the Global Monetary System?
By: Edoardo Campanella and Meg Rithmire
What is a realistic and positive outcome for US-China relations in the realm of global finance over the next ten years? While some policymakers, especially in the US, have feared that China holds ambitions for the renminbi (RMB) to replace the dollar as a global... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Changing Perceptions and Post-Pandemic Monetary Policy
By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
We document that the Fed’s perceived monetary policy response to inflation shifted materially over the post-pandemic period. In forward-looking policy rules estimated from surveys of macroeconomic forecasters, the inflation coefficient rose significantly after liftoff... View Details
- February 2024
- Article
Fifty Shades of QE: Robust Evidence
By: Brian Fabo, Marina Jančoková, Elisabeth Kempf and Ľuboš Pástor
Fabo et al. (2021) show that papers written by central bank researchers find quantitative easing (QE) to be more effective than papers written by academics. Weale and Wieladek (2022) show that a subset of these results lose statistical significance when OLS regressions... View Details
- December 2023
- Article
Intermediary Balance Sheets and the Treasury Yield Curve
By: Wenxin Du, Benjamin Hebert and Wenhao Li
We document a regime change in the Treasury market post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC): dealers switched from net short to net long Treasury bonds. We construct “net-long” and “net-short” curves that account for balance sheet and financing costs, and show that actual... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?
By: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis and Marco Sammon
We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an... View Details
- November 2021 (Revised January 2024)
- Case
The Global Great Depression, 1929-1939
By: Alberto Cavallo, Sophus A. Reinert and Federica Gabrieli
The Great Depression was, by far, the worst economic contraction of the twentieth century, and some of the most important ideas about both fiscal and monetary policy in the second half of the century were developed in response to it. The economic collapse, which... View Details
- June 2020
- Article
U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles
By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
Foreign banks’ lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated predominantly in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle,... View Details
Keywords: Global Business Cycle; Monetary Policy; Reaching For Yield; Money; Policy; Credit; Emerging Markets
- 2020
- Working Paper
HBS COVID-19 Global Policy Tracker
By: Alberto Cavallo and Tannya Cai
The HBS COVID-19 Global Policy Tracker is an initiative by the Business, Government and the International Economy (BGIE) unit at Harvard Business School (HBS) to collect and standardize economic policies implemented as a response to the coronavirus pandemic around the... View Details
- January 2020
- Teaching Note
Chile: Unrest in the Copper Nation
By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
For decades, Chile enjoyed the stability of being the world’s largest producer of copper. Keynes would have advised that this period of growth would have been the time for the government to save, that “the boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the... View Details
- 2019
- White Paper
Impact-Weighted Financial Accounts: The Missing Piece for an Impact Economy
By: George Serafeim, T. Robert Zochowski and Jennifer Downing
Reimagining capitalism is an imperative. We need to create a more inclusive and sustainable form of capitalism that works for every person and the planet. Massive environmental damage, growing income and wealth disparity, stress, and depression within developed... View Details
- 2019
- Article
More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors
By: Alberto Cavallo
I study how online competition, with its shrinking margins, algorithmic pricing technologies, and the transparency of the web, can change the pricing behavior of large retailers in the U.S. and affect aggregate inflation dynamics. In particular, I show that in the past... View Details
- April 2019 (Revised April 2020)
- Case
Reaganomics: Impact and Legacy
By: Tom Nicholas, John Masko and Matthew G. Preble
During the 1980s, President Ronald Reagan and his administration instituted several far-reaching economic policies that had both near- and long-term impacts on such aspects of the U.S. economy as monetary policy, inflation, the tax structure, and the role of... View Details
- March 2019
- Article
A Structural Analysis of the Role of Superstars in Crowdsourcing Contests
By: Shunyuan Zhang, Param Singh and Anindya Ghose
We investigate the long-term impact of competing against superstars in crowdsourcing contests. Using a unique 50-month longitudinal panel data set on 1677 software design crowdsourcing contests, we illustrate a learning effect where participants are able to improve... View Details
- August 2018
- Case
Christine Lagarde
By: Julie Battilana, Carin-Isabel Knoop, Vanessa Ampelas and Noemie Assenat
For a modular presentation of the same material, please see “Christine Lagarde (A): A French Prime Minister Calls” (HBS No. 419-017), “Christine Lagarde (B): Being a Public Servant” (HBS No. 419-018), and “Christine Lagarde (C): Managing the IMF” (HBS No. 419-019).... View Details
- August 2018
- Case
Christine Lagarde (B): Being a Public Servant
By: Julie Battilana and Carin-Isabel Knoop
This case covers the career of Christine Lagarde from 2005 to 2011 after she joins the French Government. After serving several grueling years as Finance Minister during the financial crisis that started in 2007/2008, she is being considered as the next Managing... View Details
- August 2018
- Case
Christine Lagarde (C): Managing the IMF
By: Julie Battilana and Carin-Isabel Knoop
This case covers the career of Christine Lagarde from 2011 to 2018 as she takes the helm of a troubled multilateral organization during a time of deepening economic turmoil. As the first female leader of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and as a non-economist,... View Details
- June 2018
- Case
Japan: Deficits, Deflation and Debt
By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason
In April 2018, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was again in Washington to petition Donald Trump. After years of rapid, export-led growth, Japan had slumped into recession in 1991 and never really recovered. For the past 27 years, its economy has grown at 1.1% annually,... View Details
- January 2018 (Revised March 2018)
- Case
Portugal: Can Socialism Survive?
By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason
Portugal was not ready to join the European Monetary Union in 1999. With strong unions, weak competitiveness, and a legacy of socialism, it could not compete with north-European countries. After borrowing extensively to fund deficits, Portugal went into debt crisis in... View Details
- September 2017
- Case
Christine Lagarde
By: Julie Battilana, Carin-Isabel Knoop, Vanessa Ampelas and Noemie Assenat
The case covers the youth and career trajectory of Christine Lagarde across her time at Baker & McKenzie, as a minister in the government of France and as the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The case highlights the challenges and opportunities she faced... View Details