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- November 2024
- Article
Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge
By: Alberto Cavallo and Oleksiy Kryvtsov
We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in ten countries between 2018 and 2024. Measuring... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Markups and Cost Pass-through Along the Supply Chain
By: Santiago E. Alvarez, Alberto Cavallo, Alexander MacKay and Paolo Mengano
We study markups and pricing strategies along the supply chain. Our unique dataset combines detailed price and cost information from a large global manufacturer with matched retail prices collected online for the period July 2018 through June 2023. We show that total... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues
By: Nicola Gennaioli, Marta Leva, Raphael Schoenle and Andrei Shleifer
In a model of memory and selective recall, household inflation expectations remain rigid when inflation is anchored but exhibit sharp instability during inflation surges, as similarity prompts retrieval of forgotten high-inflation experiences. Using data from the New... View Details
- June 2024
- Article
Inflation with COVID Consumption Baskets
By: Alberto Cavallo
The Covid-19 pandemic led to changes in expenditure patterns that introduced significant bias in the measurement of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Using publicly-available data on card transactions, I updated the official CPI weights and re-calculated inflation... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates
By: Max Miller, James Paron and Jessica Wachter
Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We propose an explanation... View Details
- May 2023
- Case
Uruguay: South America's Singapore?
By: Richard Vietor
Uruguay, the richest country in Latin America and the only one that has not turned to the left, suffers from slow growth, high inflation and a weak education system. President Lacrolle Pou has two more years in office to reform these problems. View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Detecting Structural Breaks in Inflation Trends: A High-Frequency Approach
By: Alberto Cavallo and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta
We combine standard structural-break methods with high-frequency data to identify shifts in inflation trends. We use this approach to study the inflation dynamics of 25 countries from January 2022 to April 2023 and find evidence of a broad-based slowdown in about half... View Details
- March–April 2023
- Article
Case Study: Should a Dollar Store Raise Prices to Keep Up with Inflation?
By: Jill Avery and Marco Bertini
How should a dollar store maintain its brand and price position in the marketplace in the face of rising inflation? Is holding a $1.00 price point still viable in today's marketplace? In this fictional case, managers face inflationary pressures and must decide whether... View Details
- December 2022
- Case
The Magic of Marks & Spencer Food
By: David E. Bell, Natalie Kindred and Damien McLoughlin
- November 10, 2022
- Article
5 Ways Startups Can Prepare for a Recession
By: Lou Shipley
Startups face unique challenges during economic downturns. They typically aren’t yet profitable and so are reliant on outside funding—and therefore are especially exposed when macroeconomic conditions change. To make it through a recession, startup CEOs should hit the... View Details
- July 1, 2022
- Editorial
New Transparency Rule Helps Rein in Health Care Costs
By: Regina E. Herzlinger and Cynthia A. Fisher
Over the last year, consumer prices have grown 60% faster than wages. Employers can help their employees contend with this high inflation by addressing a long-running source: health care costs. View Details
- June 2022 (Revised August 2022)
- Case
Dollar Tree: Breaking the Buck
By: Jill Avery and Marco Bertini
For thirty-five years, Dollar Tree, a discount retail chain selling general merchandise, had held its fixed price point steady, pricing all of its household items, food, stationery, books, seasonal items, gifts, toys, and clothing that made up its diverse and... View Details
- May 2022
- Case
Rawbank's Illico Cash: Can 'Fast Money' Overcome Cash Dependency in the DRC?
By: Lauren Cohen and Grace Headinger
Thomas de Dreux-Brézé, the Head of Strategy and Project Management at Rawbank Congo in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), was perplexed as he reviewed annual adoption rates for the bank’s launch of Illico Cash 2.0. As the bank’s mobile money app, Illico Cash... View Details
Keywords: Fintech; Inflation; Deflation; Rural; Urban; Emerging Market; Mobile Technology; Finance; Money; Inflation and Deflation; Business Growth and Maturation; Decision Choices and Conditions; Demographics; Developing Countries and Economies; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Behavioral Finance; Currency; Banks and Banking; Commercial Banking; Financial Strategy; Rural Scope; Urban Scope; Innovation Strategy; Emerging Markets; Network Effects; Consumer Behavior; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Technology Adoption; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; Congo, Democratic Republic of the
- March 2022 (Revised May 2022)
- Case
Reclaiming the Land of Purple: Purpl’s Mission to Unlock Finance in Lebanon
By: Lauren Cohen and Grace Headinger
Karl Naim, Co-Founder and CEO of Purpl, embarked on a venture to lower remittance costs for his native Lebanon. Since October 2019, the Lebanese economy had entered a free fall as its banking sector collapsed and large swathes of its population were plunged into... View Details
Keywords: Business Startup; Fintech; Inflation; Deflation; Cross-border Frictions; Remittances; Business Startups; Diasporas; Financial Crisis; Money; Entrepreneurship; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Poverty; Financial Institutions; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; Lebanon
- March 2022 (Revised March 2024)
- Case
Hometown Foods: Changing Price amid Inflation
During the early part of the 2021 Covid-19 pandemic, Hometown Foods, a large seller of flour-based products, thrived as consumers hoarded baked goods and took up baking to pass the time and find comfort. Then, amid growing shortages in commodities, a vaccine arrived,... View Details
- May 2021 (Revised May 2021)
- Case
Colombia: An Economic Premium to Peace?
Colombia, once the fastest growing country in Latin America, continues to struggle with productivity. Both labor productivity and total factor productivity have been low for the past decade, despite economic growth of 4.7% annually. Many factors contribute, which... View Details
Keywords: Productivity; Productivity Growth; Conflict; Labor Force Participation; Labor Market; Competitiveness; Dutch Disease; Security; Peace; Informality; Labor Laws; Total Factor Productivity; Labor Productivity; COVID-19 Pandemic; Economics; Development Economics; Economic Growth; Economy; Macroeconomics; Conflict Management; Competitive Advantage; Infrastructure; Negotiation; Inflation and Deflation; Non-Renewable Energy; National Security; Government Administration; Latin America; Central America; Colombia; South America
- October 2020 (Revised March 2022)
- Case
Automercados Plaza's: Surviving Venezuela's Hyperinflation
By: Alberto Cavallo, Mariana Cal and Carla Larangeira
Under the rule of presidents Hugo Chávez and Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela experienced one of the worst economic and political meltdowns in modern history, culminating with a massive hyperinflation. Remarkably, during this dramatic times Automercados Plaza's had grown to... View Details
- February 2020 (Revised August 2021)
- Case
Australia: Commodities, Competitiveness, Climate and China
By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Laura Alfaro
For the past few decades, Australia has dealt with the benefits and costs of repeated mining booms—inflation, a housing bubble, a current account deficit, and growing dependence on China. Between 1996 and 2007, however, Australia had most of these issues under control... View Details
- November 2019
- Case
Floating the Exchange Rate: In Pursuit of the Chinese Dream
By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
In the decades following 2005, China faced significant financial challenges. Inflation spiraled upwards and China’s economy stagnated in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. The country’s leaders took an interventionist approach to weather the storm, controlling... View Details
- 2020
- Working Paper
Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from U.S. Trade Policy
By: Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman and Jenny Tang
We use micro data collected at the border and the store to characterize the price impact of recent US trade policy on importers, exporters, and consumers. At the border, import tariff passthrough is much higher than exchange rate passthrough. Chinese exporters did not... View Details