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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (2,518)
      • Faculty Publications  (535)

      Economic PolicyRemove Economic Policy →

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      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Navigating Choppy Waters: How U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Affects Small Businesses

      By: David Atkin, Zoë Cullen and Ebehi Iyoha
      This paper explores the impact of recent changes in the US trade policy environment on small businesses. Drawing on a survey of more than 4,000 small businesses conducted between March 22 and 31, 2025, we examine firms’ knowledge, expectations, and decisions during... View Details
      Keywords: Trade; Risk and Uncertainty; Government Legislation; Globalization; International Relations; Small Business
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      Atkin, David, Zoë Cullen, and Ebehi Iyoha. "Navigating Choppy Waters: How U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Affects Small Businesses." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-048, April 2025.
      • 2025
      • White Paper

      Governors Reshaping Workforce Development: Turning WIOA Challenges into Workforce Solutions

      By: Joseph B. Fuller, Kerry McKittrick, Nathalie Gazzaneo, Ariel Higuchi, Justine Gluck, Zoe Butler, Jack Porter and Malena Dailey
      The Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (WIOA) grants Governors significant authority to shape their state workforce systems. Yet, little research explores how they use those powers to strengthen their economies and expand access to employment and training.... View Details
      Keywords: Government Administration; Policy; Training; Employment
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      Fuller, Joseph B., Kerry McKittrick, Nathalie Gazzaneo, Ariel Higuchi, Justine Gluck, Zoe Butler, Jack Porter, and Malena Dailey. "Governors Reshaping Workforce Development: Turning WIOA Challenges into Workforce Solutions." White Paper, Project on Workforce at Harvard, April 2025.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Paola Llamas and Franco Vazquez
      This paper examines the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices using a unique integration of high-frequency retail pricing data, product-level country-of-origin information, and detailed tariff classifications. By linking daily prices from major... View Details
      Keywords: Tariffs; Trade; Price; Inflation and Deflation
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Paola Llamas, and Franco Vazquez. "Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs." Working Paper, April 2025.
      • March 2025
      • Case

      The Changing Climate on Wall Street

      By: Clayton S. Rose, Maxim Pike Harrell and Michael Norris
      Increasing and conflicting regulatory requirements and political pressures regarding climate change tested the leaders of U.S. financial institutions, as they struggled to determine how best to comply while managing their business and its risks. In October 2024,... View Details
      Keywords: Change; Disruption; Competency and Skills; Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Ethics; Governance; Corporate Accountability; Leadership; Management; Risk Management; Organizations; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Organizational Culture; Society; Civil Society or Community; Social Issues; Strategy; Adaptation; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; United States; Europe
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      Rose, Clayton S., Maxim Pike Harrell, and Michael Norris. "The Changing Climate on Wall Street." Harvard Business School Case 325-020, March 2025.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      CEO-Firm Matches and Productivity in 42 Countries

      By: Amanda Dahlstrand, Dávid László, Helena Schweiger, Oriana Bandiera, Andrea Prat and Raffaella Sadun
      Firms are key to economic development, and CEOs are key to firm productivity. Are firms in countries at varying stages of development led by the right CEOs, and if not, why? We develop a parsimonious measure of CEO time use that allows us to differentiate CEOs into... View Details
      Keywords: Training; Management Skills; Economic Growth; Leadership Development
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      Dahlstrand, Amanda, Dávid László, Helena Schweiger, Oriana Bandiera, Andrea Prat, and Raffaella Sadun. "CEO-Firm Matches and Productivity in 42 Countries." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-033, January 2025. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33324, January 2025.)
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      A Gender Backlash: Does Exposure to Female Labor Market Participation Fuel Gender Conservatism?

      By: Paula Rettl, Diane Bolet, Catherine E. De Vries, Simone Cremaschi, Tarik Abou-Chadi and Sergi Pardos-Prado
      The growing participation of women in the labor market has marked a significant societal transformation, coinciding with the rise of gender conservatism and far-right support. We study whether the economic consequences of labor market feminization and gender backlash... View Details
      Keywords: Gender Bias; Gender Equality; Gender Inclusivity; Politics; Political Backlash; Political Culture; Conservatism; Gender; Government and Politics; Equality and Inequality; Prejudice and Bias; Labor
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      Rettl, Paula, Diane Bolet, Catherine E. De Vries, Simone Cremaschi, Tarik Abou-Chadi, and Sergi Pardos-Prado. "A Gender Backlash: Does Exposure to Female Labor Market Participation Fuel Gender Conservatism?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-022, November 2024.
      • November–December 2024
      • Article

      Loss of Peers and Individual Worker Performance: Evidence From H-1B Visa Denials

      By: Prithwiraj Choudhury, Kirk Doran, Astrid Marinoni and Chungeun Yoon
      We study how restrictive immigration policies that result in the unexpected loss of co-workers affect the performance of skilled migrants employed in organizations. Specifically, we examine the impact of the loss of team members on their co-workers’ performance in... View Details
      Keywords: Immigration; Performance Productivity; Employees; Human Capital; Ethnicity; Groups and Teams
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      Choudhury, Prithwiraj, Kirk Doran, Astrid Marinoni, and Chungeun Yoon. "Loss of Peers and Individual Worker Performance: Evidence From H-1B Visa Denials." Organization Science 35, no. 6 (November–December 2024): 2040–2063.
      • November 2024
      • Article

      Perceptions About Monetary Policy

      By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
      We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time,... View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; Policy; Interest Rates; Perception; Economy; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Bauer, Michael D., Carolin Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam. "Perceptions About Monetary Policy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 139, no. 4 (November 2024): 2227–2278.
      • November 2024
      • Article

      Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs

      By: Xi Ling, Wesley R. Hartmann and Tomomichi Amano
      This paper compares two estimators—the Border Approach and an Instrumental Variable (IV) estimator—using a unified framework where identifying variation arises from “preference externalities,” following the intuition in Waldfogel (2003). We highlight two dimensions in... View Details
      Keywords: Econometrics; Casual Inference; Marketing; Economics; Advertising; Mathematical Methods
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      Ling, Xi, Wesley R. Hartmann, and Tomomichi Amano. "Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs." Management Science 70, no. 11 (November 2024): 7892–7910.
      • Fall 2024
      • Article

      The Problem of Good Conduct Among Financial Advisers

      By: Mark Egan, Gregor Matvos and Amit Seru
      Households in the United States often rely on financial advisers for investment and savings decisions, yet there is a widespread perception that many advisers are dishonest. This distrust is not unwarranted: approximately one in fifteen advisers has a history of... View Details
      Keywords: Personal Finance; Behavioral Finance; Trust; Financial Services Industry
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      Egan, Mark, Gregor Matvos, and Amit Seru. "The Problem of Good Conduct Among Financial Advisers." Journal of Economic Perspectives 38, no. 4 (Fall 2024): 193–210.
      • October 2024
      • Teaching Note

      Taiwan After Globalization: Twilight of the Developmental State?

      By: Debora L. Spar and Julia M. Comeau
      Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 324-032. In the last 70 years, the small island of Taiwan has achieved what many believe to be a “miracle”: its economy has grown at a record-setting pace, driven and guided by one of the world's most successful set of industrial... View Details
      Keywords: Economic Growth; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Trade; Policy; Government and Politics; Globalized Economies and Regions; Semiconductor Industry; Technology Industry; Taiwan; China; Asia; United States
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      Spar, Debora L., and Julia M. Comeau. "Taiwan After Globalization: Twilight of the Developmental State?" Harvard Business School Teaching Note 325-057, October 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Changing Perceptions and Post-Pandemic Monetary Policy

      By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
      We document that the Fed’s perceived monetary policy response to inflation shifted materially over the post-pandemic period. In forward-looking policy rules estimated from surveys of macroeconomic forecasters, the inflation coefficient rose significantly after liftoff... View Details
      Keywords: Policy; Inflation and Deflation; Interest Rates; Perception; Government Administration
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      Bauer, Michael D., Carolin Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam. "Changing Perceptions and Post-Pandemic Monetary Policy." Working Paper, September 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Behavioral Attenuation

      By: Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke, Ryan Oprea and Jeffrey Yang
      We report a large-scale examination of behavioral attenuation: due to information-processing constraints, the elasticity of people’s decisions with respect to economic fundamentals is generally too small. We implement more than 30 experiments, 20 of which were... View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Behavioral Finance
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      Graeber, Thomas, Benjamin Enke, Ryan Oprea, and Jeffrey Yang. "Behavioral Attenuation." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32973, September 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Voting Rules, Turnout, and Economic Policies

      By: Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons and Jérôme Schäfer
      In recent years, voter ID laws and convenience voting have generated heated partisan debates. To shed light on these policy issues, we survey the recent evidence on the institutional determinants and effects of voter turnout and broaden the perspective beyond the most... View Details
      Keywords: Voting; Political Elections; Policy
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      Cantoni, Enrico, Vincent Pons, and Jérôme Schäfer. "Voting Rules, Turnout, and Economic Policies." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32941, September 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      The Consequences of Export Controls in Target Countries

      By: Xueyue Liu, Yu Liu and Jaya Y. Wen
      Export controls are a common instrument of national security, but their economic consequences are not well understood. This paper evaluates how these controls affect firm performance and adaptation in targeted countries. We use variation in a 2007 US policy,... View Details
      Keywords: National Security; Trade; Business and Government Relations; Policy; Performance Productivity; Adaptation
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      Liu, Xueyue, Yu Liu, and Jaya Y. Wen. "The Consequences of Export Controls in Target Countries." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-004, August 2024.
      • August 2024
      • Article

      The Labor Market Effects of Loan Guarantee Programs

      By: Jean-Noël Barrot, Thorsten Martin, Julien Sauvagnat and Boris Vallée
      We investigate the labor market effects of a loan guarantee program targeting French SMEs during the financial crisis. Exploiting differences in regional treatment intensity in a border discontinuity design, we uncover a central trade-off for such interventions. While... View Details
      Keywords: Labor; Financial Crisis; Policy; France
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      Barrot, Jean-Noël, Thorsten Martin, Julien Sauvagnat, and Boris Vallée. "The Labor Market Effects of Loan Guarantee Programs." Review of Financial Studies 37, no. 8 (August 2024): 2315–2354.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Immigrant Entrepreneurship: New Estimates and a Research Agenda

      By: Saheel Chodavadia, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr and Louis Maiden
      Immigrants contribute disproportionately to entrepreneurship in many countries, accounting for a quarter of new employer businesses in the US. We review recent research on the measurement of immigrant entrepreneurship, the traits of immigrant founders, their economic... View Details
      Keywords: Immigrant Employment; Immigration; Entrepreneurship; Demographics; Innovation and Invention
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      Chodavadia, Saheel, Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr, and Louis Maiden. "Immigrant Entrepreneurship: New Estimates and a Research Agenda." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-068, April 2024.
      • 2024
      • Article

      Half the Firms, Double the Profits: Public Firms' Transformation, 1996–2022

      By: Mark J. Roe and Charles C.Y. Wang
      The number of public firms in the United States has halved since the beginning of the twenty-first century, causing consternation among corporate and securities law regulators. The dominant explanations, often advanced by Securities and Exchange commissioners when... View Details
      Keywords: Corporate Law; Securities Regulation; Sarbanes-Oxley Act; Concentration Levels; Antitrust; Initial Public Offering; Public Ownership; Private Equity; Venture Capital; Mergers and Acquisitions; Monopoly; United States
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      Roe, Mark J., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Half the Firms, Double the Profits: Public Firms' Transformation, 1996–2022." Journal of Law, Finance, and Accounting 8, no. 2 (2024): 211–264.
      • February 2024
      • Article

      Fifty Shades of QE: Robust Evidence

      By: Brian Fabo, Marina Jančoková, Elisabeth Kempf and Ľuboš Pástor
      Fabo et al. (2021) show that papers written by central bank researchers find quantitative easing (QE) to be more effective than papers written by academics. Weale and Wieladek (2022) show that a subset of these results lose statistical significance when OLS regressions... View Details
      Keywords: Quantitative Easing; Research; Mathematical Methods; Perception; Banks and Banking; Body of Literature
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      Fabo, Brian, Marina Jančoková, Elisabeth Kempf, and Ľuboš Pástor. "Fifty Shades of QE: Robust Evidence." Art. 107065. Journal of Banking & Finance 159 (February 2024).
      • December 2023
      • Article

      Intermediary Balance Sheets and the Treasury Yield Curve

      By: Wenxin Du, Benjamin Hebert and Wenhao Li
      We document a regime change in the Treasury market post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC): dealers switched from net short to net long Treasury bonds. We construct “net-long” and “net-short” curves that account for balance sheet and financing costs, and show that actual... View Details
      Keywords: Bonds; Financial Markets; Financial Crisis; Asset Pricing
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      Du, Wenxin, Benjamin Hebert, and Wenhao Li. "Intermediary Balance Sheets and the Treasury Yield Curve." Art. 103722. Journal of Financial Economics 150, no. 3 (December 2023).
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