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Publications

Publications

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  • All HBS Web  (47)
    • Faculty Publications  (7)

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    • All HBS Web  (47)
      • Faculty Publications  (7)

      Diagnostic ExpectationsRemove Diagnostic Expectations →

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges... View Details
      Keywords: Overreaction; Rational Expectations; Macroeconomics; Market Participation; Social Psychology
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30356, August 2022.
      • September 2021
      • Article

      Diagnostic Bubbles

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
      We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details
      Keywords: Bubble; Speculation; Diagnostic Expectations; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 141, no. 3 (September 2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Real Credit Cycles

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
      We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S.... View Details
      Keywords: Econometric Models; Business Cycles; Credit
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, and Stephen J. Terry. "Real Credit Cycles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28416, January 2021.
      • 2018
      • Working Paper

      Diagnostic Bubbles

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
      We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details
      Keywords: Bubbles; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods
      Citation
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Bubbles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25399, December 2018.
      • February 2018
      • Article

      Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      Citation
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles." Journal of Finance 73, no. 1 (February 2018): 199–227.
      • 2013
      • Working Paper

      Helping You Help Me: The Role of Diagnostic (In)congruence in the Helping Process within Organizations

      By: Colin M. Fisher, Julianna Pillemer and Teresa M. Amabile
      Through an inductive, multi-method field study at a major design firm, we investigated the helping process in project work and how that process affects the success of a helping episode, as perceived by help-givers and/or -receivers. We used daily diary entries and... View Details
      Keywords: Groups and Teams; Knowledge Management; Performance; Cooperation
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      Fisher, Colin M., Julianna Pillemer, and Teresa M. Amabile. "Helping You Help Me: The Role of Diagnostic (In)congruence in the Helping Process within Organizations." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-003, July 2013.
      • Research Summary

      Equity Valuation

      By: Charles C.Y. Wang

      Professor Wang’s research utilizes valuation theory to explain how firm fundamentals are related to the expected rates of equity returns and their term structures. His research provides strong evidence that valuation-based proxies of expected returns outperform the... View Details

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