Publications

2025
Working Paper

Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs

By: Alberto Cavallo, Paola Llamas and Franco Vazquez

This paper examines the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices using a unique integration of high-frequency retail pricing data, product-level country-of-origin information, and detailed tariff classifications. By linking daily prices from major... View Details

Keywords: Tariffs; Trade; Price; Inflation and Deflation

January 2025 (Revised April 2025)
Case

Doing Business in Cairo: Navigating a Path to Economic Resilience

By: A. Zelleke and Ahmed Dahawy

Egypt has long been a pivotal force in the Middle East and North Africa. Located at a crossroads of global trade routes, the country was a strategic partner for numerous regional and global powers. However, a substantial currency devaluation in 2016 brought many... View Details

Keywords: Business; Developing Countries and Economies; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Globalized Economies and Regions; International Relations; Emerging Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Culture; Economy; Country; Currency; Investment; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Egypt

December 2024
Article

Large Shocks Travel Fast

By: Alberto Cavallo, Francesco Lippi and Ken Miyahara

We document a sizeable increase in the frequency of price adjustments following the large energy shocks of 2022. We use a tractable New Keynesian model, calibrated to the pre-shock data, to interpret such a pattern. The calibration highlights the state-dependence of... View Details

Keywords: System Shocks; Price; Cost; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Institutions

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November 2024
Article

Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge

By: Alberto Cavallo and Oleksiy Kryvtsov

We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in ten countries between 2018 and 2024. Measuring... View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Price; Consumer Behavior; Personal Finance; Product Positioning

2024
Working Paper

Changing Perceptions and Post-Pandemic Monetary Policy

By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam

We document that the Fed’s perceived monetary policy response to inflation shifted materially over the post-pandemic period. In forward-looking policy rules estimated from surveys of macroeconomic forecasters, the inflation coefficient rose significantly after liftoff... View Details

Keywords: Policy; Inflation and Deflation; Interest Rates; Perception; Government Administration

2025
Working Paper

Markups and Cost Pass-through Along the Supply Chain

By: Santiago Alvarez-Blaser, Alberto Cavallo, Alexander MacKay and Paolo Mengano

We study markups and pricing strategies along the supply chain. Our unique dataset combines detailed price and cost information from a large global manufacturer with matched retail prices collected online for the period July 2018 through June 2023. We show that total... View Details

Keywords: Markups; Pricing; Price; Supply Chain; Inflation and Deflation; Cost

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2024
Working Paper

How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues

By: Nicola Gennaioli, Marta Leva, Raphael Schoenle and Andrei Shleifer

In a model of memory and selective recall, household inflation expectations remain rigid when inflation is anchored but exhibit sharp instability during inflation surges, as similarity prompts retrieval of forgotten high-inflation experiences. Using data from the New... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Inflation and Deflation; Personal Finance

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June 2024
Article

Inflation with COVID Consumption Baskets

By: Alberto Cavallo

The Covid-19 pandemic led to changes in expenditure patterns that introduced significant bias in the measurement of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Using publicly-available data on card transactions, I updated the official CPI weights and re-calculated inflation... View Details

Keywords: COVID; Consumer Expenditures; CPI; Inflation; Consumer Behavior; Inflation and Deflation; Health Pandemics

March 2024 (Revised March 2025)
Case

Pakistan at 75: When Will the 'Nazuk Mor' End?

By: Meg Rithmire, Salaar A. Shaikh and Hong Zhang

In 2023, business leaders, politicians, and civil society were all describing Pakistan’s condition as “polycrisis.” The country faced decisions on elections after Imran Khan’s ouster and arrest, protests against the military’s involvement in politics and the crackdowns... View Details

Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Government and Politics; Health Pandemics; Conflict and Resolution; Pakistan

2023
Chapter

Inflation and Misallocation in New Keynesian Models

By: Alberto Cavallo, Francesco Lippi and Ken Miyahara

The New Keynesian framework implies that sluggish price adjustment results in a distorted allocation of resources. We use a simple model to quantify these unobservable distortions, using data that depict the price-setting behavior of firms, specifically the frequency... View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Price; Analytics and Data Science; Cost

2023
Working Paper

Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates

By: Max Miller, James Paron and Jessica Wachter

Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We propose an explanation... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Interest Rates; Debt Securities

May 2023
Case

Uruguay: South America's Singapore?

By: Richard Vietor

Uruguay, the richest country in Latin America and the only one that has not turned to the left, suffers from slow growth, high inflation and a weak education system. President Lacrolle Pou has two more years in office to reform these problems. View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Inflation and Deflation; Government Administration; Latin America; Uruguay

2025
Working Paper

Turning Points in Inflation: A Structural Breaks Approach with Micro Data

By: Alberto Cavallo and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta

We introduce a novel methodology for detecting inflation turning points that combines high-frequency, disaggregated price data with standard structural break techniques to provide policymakers with more precise and timely signals of inflation dynamics. The methodology... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Global Range; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Analysis; Price

March–April 2023
Article

Case Study: Should a Dollar Store Raise Prices to Keep Up with Inflation?

By: Jill Avery and Marco Bertini

How should a dollar store maintain its brand and price position in the marketplace in the face of rising inflation? Is holding a $1.00 price point still viable in today's marketplace? In this fictional case, managers face inflationary pressures and must decide whether... View Details

Keywords: Pricing; Pricing Strategy; Retailing; Discount Retailing; Discount Store; Marketing; Marketing Strategy; Brands and Branding; Inflation and Deflation; Retail Industry; United States

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December 2022
Case

The Magic of Marks & Spencer Food

By: David E. Bell, Natalie Kindred and Damien McLoughlin

Keywords: Brands and Branding; Food; Consumer Behavior; Product Development; Competition; Price; Inflation and Deflation; Trends; Growth and Development; Strategy; Retail Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United Kingdom

November 10, 2022
Article

5 Ways Startups Can Prepare for a Recession

By: Lou Shipley

Startups face unique challenges during economic downturns. They typically aren’t yet profitable and so are reliant on outside funding—and therefore are especially exposed when macroeconomic conditions change. To make it through a recession, startup CEOs should hit the... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Organizational Culture; Sales; Customer Focus and Relationships; Decisions; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Crisis; Employee Relationship Management; Business Startups; Credit

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July 1, 2022
Editorial

New Transparency Rule Helps Rein in Health Care Costs

By: Regina E. Herzlinger and Cynthia A. Fisher

Over the last year, consumer prices have grown 60% faster than wages. Employers can help their employees contend with this high inflation by addressing a long-running source: health care costs. View Details

Keywords: Healthcare Costs; Consumer Prices; Inflation and Deflation; Wages; Health Industry

June 2022 (Revised August 2022)
Case

Dollar Tree: Breaking the Buck

By: Jill Avery and Marco Bertini

For thirty-five years, Dollar Tree, a discount retail chain selling general merchandise, had held its fixed price point steady, pricing all of its household items, food, stationery, books, seasonal items, gifts, toys, and clothing that made up its diverse and... View Details

Keywords: Retailing; Pricing; Pricing Strategy; Discount Retailing; Discount Store; Marketing; Brands and Branding; Marketing Strategy; Price; Inflation and Deflation; Consumer Behavior; Retail Industry; United States

May 2022
Case

Rawbank's Illico Cash: Can 'Fast Money' Overcome Cash Dependency in the DRC?

By: Lauren Cohen and Grace Headinger

Thomas de Dreux-Brézé, the Head of Strategy and Project Management at Rawbank Congo in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), was perplexed as he reviewed annual adoption rates for the bank’s launch of Illico Cash 2.0. As the bank’s mobile money app, Illico Cash... View Details