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  • March 2016
  • Article

The Role of Investor Gut Feel in Managing Complexity and Extreme Risk

By: Laura Huang
Securing financial resources from investors is a key challenge for many early stage entrepreneurial ventures. Given the inherent uncertainty surrounding a decision to invest in these ventures, prior research has found that experienced investors rely heavily on their... View Details
Keywords: Angel Investors; Gut Feel; Intuition; Entrepreneurship; Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Complexity; Decision Making
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Huang, Laura. "The Role of Investor Gut Feel in Managing Complexity and Extreme Risk." Academy of Management Journal 61, no. 5 (October 2018): 1821–1847.
  • July–August 2023
  • Article

Case Study: How Should a Start-Up Cut Its Burn Rate?

By: Nitin Nohria, Katie Josephson, Sophia Wronsky and Elizabeth Rha
Tyler Smith, the founder and CEO of the enterprise software firm Puck.io, is facing a hard decision. Just three months earlier the company laid off 20% of its employees to reduce its burn rate amid growing economic uncertainty and a suddenly unattractive funding... View Details
Keywords: Employees; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Governing and Advisory Boards; Business and Shareholder Relations; Business or Company Management; Business Startups
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Nohria, Nitin, Katie Josephson, Sophia Wronsky, and Elizabeth Rha. "Case Study: How Should a Start-Up Cut Its Burn Rate?" Harvard Business Review 101, no. 4 (July–August 2023): 144–149.
  • December 2009
  • Article

Estimation and Empirical Properties of a Firm-Year Measure of Accounting Conservatism

By: Mozaffar N. Khan and Ross L. Watts
We estimate a firm-year measure of accounting conservatism, examine its empirical properties as a metric, and illustrate applications by testing new hypotheses that shed further light on the nature and effects of conservatism. The results are consistent with the... View Details
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Khan, Mozaffar N., and Ross L. Watts. "Estimation and Empirical Properties of a Firm-Year Measure of Accounting Conservatism." Journal of Accounting & Economics 48, nos. 2-3 (December 2009): 132–150.
  • Article

Temporary General Equilibrium in a Sequential Trading Model with Spot and Futures Transactions

By: Jerry R. Green
The existence of an equilibrium is proven for a two-period model in which there are spot transactions and futures transactions in the first period and spot markets in the second period. Prices at that date are viewed with subjective uncertainty by all traders. This... View Details
Keywords: Equilibrium; Sequential Trading; Econometric Models
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Green, Jerry R. "Temporary General Equilibrium in a Sequential Trading Model with Spot and Futures Transactions." Econometrica 41, no. 6 (November 1973): 1103–1123.
  • 2012
  • Report

Better Outcomes, Lower Costs: A Conversation with Dr. Atul Gawande

By: Mark R. Kramer
In the face of increasing health care costs and uncertainty about health care quality in the United States, community-based collective impact initiatives driven by regional funders offers a new way to improve patient outcomes at the local level. Collectively,... View Details
Keywords: Community Foundations; Health Outcomes; Health Care and Treatment; Quality; Cost Management; United States
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Kramer, Mark R. "Better Outcomes, Lower Costs: A Conversation with Dr. Atul Gawande." Report, FSG, 2012.
  • 26 May 2009
  • Research & Ideas

Improving Market Research in a Recession

product categories, or stores. Some are even changing long-held attitudes toward consumption. To many folks, filling the home with more stuff or keeping up with the Joneses is no longer appealing. As a result, the degree of uncertainty in... View Details
Keywords: by John Quelch
  • December 2006 (Revised March 2010)
  • Case

Bill Gates and Steve Jobs

By: Anthony Mayo and Mark Benson
Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, founders of Microsoft and Apple respectively, have revolutionized the relationship between the individual and computer technology. Once the exclusive domain of academia and research facilities, computers can now be found in every area of... View Details
Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Business History; Technological Innovation; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Technology Industry
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Mayo, Anthony, and Mark Benson. "Bill Gates and Steve Jobs." Harvard Business School Case 407-028, December 2006. (Revised March 2010.)
  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Designing, Not Checking, for Policy Robustness: An Example with Optimal Taxation

By: Benjami Lockwood, Afras Y. Sial and Matthew C. Weinzierl
Economists typically check the robustness of their results by comparing them across plausible ranges of parameter values and model structures. A preferable approach to robustness—for the purposes of policymaking and evaluation—is to design policy that takes these... View Details
Keywords: Optimal Taxation; Robust Optimization; Taxation; Income; Policy; Design
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Lockwood, Benjami, Afras Y. Sial, and Matthew C. Weinzierl. "Designing, Not Checking, for Policy Robustness: An Example with Optimal Taxation." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28098, November 2020.
  • November 2000 (Revised April 2004)
  • Case

Airbus A3XX: Developing the World's Largest Commercial Jet (A)

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Michael Kane
In July 2000, Airbus Industries' supervisory board is on the verge of approving a $13 billion investment for the development of a new super jumbo jet known as the A3XX that would seat from 550 to 1,000 passengers. Having secured approximately 20 orders for the new jet,... View Details
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Investment; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting; Valuation; Government and Politics; Demand and Consumers; Product Development; Product Positioning; Air Transportation Industry; Manufacturing Industry
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Esty, Benjamin C., and Michael Kane. "Airbus A3XX: Developing the World's Largest Commercial Jet (A)." Harvard Business School Case 201-028, November 2000. (Revised April 2004.)
  • November 2005 (Revised March 2006)
  • Case

Genentech - Capacity Planning

By: Daniel C. Snow, Steven C. Wheelwright and Alison Berkley Wagonfeld
While facilitating a complex clinical approval process over the next two to three years for a family of new cancer drugs, Genentech must develop a long-term capacity plan for a major class of new cancer products. Adding to the complexity and uncertainty is the fact... View Details
Keywords: Factories, Labs, and Plants; Growth and Development Strategy; Management Style; Management Teams; Time Management; Product; Product Development; Business Processes; Performance Capacity; Planning; Risk and Uncertainty; Complexity; Pharmaceutical Industry
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Snow, Daniel C., Steven C. Wheelwright, and Alison Berkley Wagonfeld. "Genentech - Capacity Planning." Harvard Business School Case 606-052, November 2005. (Revised March 2006.)
  • June 1990 (Revised January 1994)
  • Case

Desktop Printer Industry in 1990

The desktop printer industry in 1990 is characterized by significant uncertainty about new technologies and about the types of features customers may demand in the next decade. The case looks at the positions of Hewlett-Packard, Canon, Kodak, Xerox, and IBM enabling... View Details
Keywords: Risk Management; Change Management; Competition; Hardware; Computer Industry
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Teisberg, Elizabeth O. "Desktop Printer Industry in 1990." Harvard Business School Case 390-173, June 1990. (Revised January 1994.)
  • June 2018
  • Case

American Airlines' Value Pricing (Abridged)

By: Alvin J. Silk and Sunil Gupta
This is an abridged version of the 1992 case where American Airlines (AA) launched "Value Pricing" in an attempt to simplify the pricing structure of the airline industry. AA expected that this plan would benefit not only consumers, but also AA and the entire airline... View Details
Keywords: Consumer Marketing; Market Segmentation; Pricing; Pricing Strategy; Demand Analysis; Competition; Marketing; Segmentation; Price; Strategy; Demand and Consumers; Analysis; Air Transportation Industry
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Silk, Alvin J., and Sunil Gupta. "American Airlines' Value Pricing (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 519-019, June 2018.
  • June 2008 (Revised May 2017)
  • Case

Cook Composites and Polymers Co.

By: Deishin Lee, Michael W. Toffel and Rachel Gordon
This case describes how a company improves resource efficiency and process quality in its manufacturing process by developing a waste by-product into a new product. The case describes how CCP cleans production equipment between batches using styrene, which becomes a... View Details
Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Product Development; Business Processes; Performance Efficiency; Natural Environment; Wastes and Waste Processing; Pollutants; Environmental Sustainability; Chemical Industry; Manufacturing Industry
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Lee, Deishin, Michael W. Toffel, and Rachel Gordon. "Cook Composites and Polymers Co." Harvard Business School Case 608-055, June 2008. (Revised May 2017.)
  • April 2006 (Revised March 2007)
  • Case

Black Duck Software

By: Constance E. Bagley and David Lane
Black Duck Software involves a venture-backed start-up that converted software developers' concerns about violating copyright licensing agreements or open source protocols into an opportunity to help firms use technology to better manage their compliance efforts.... View Details
Keywords: Value Creation; Law; Open Source Distribution; Applications and Software; Business Startups; Copyright
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Bagley, Constance E., and David Lane. "Black Duck Software." Harvard Business School Case 806-121, April 2006. (Revised March 2007.)
  • March 1996
  • Case

African Communications Group

Describes the opportunities that confront the African Communications Group, an entrepreneurial organization that plans to introduce a wireless pay-phone system in Tanzania. Provides a foundation for the analysis of value creation and of value capture. The possibility... View Details
Keywords: Value Creation; Competition; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Wireless Technology; Telecommunications Industry; Tanzania
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McGahan, Anita M., and Dale Coxe. "African Communications Group." Harvard Business School Case 796-128, March 1996.
  • November 2010 (Revised December 2010)
  • Case

Mid-Missouri Energy: Ethanol from Corn

By: Forest L. Reinhardt, Noel Michele Holbrook, James Weber and Karla Sartor
Mid-Missouri Energy (MME) is a farmer-owned cooperative that produces ethanol from corn. The cooperative has performed well in comparison to other producers, but margins in the industry had declined as industry production levels neared market demand limits. MME farmers... View Details
Keywords: Agribusiness; Renewable Energy; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy; Growth and Development Strategy; Cooperative Ownership; Business and Government Relations; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; United States
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Reinhardt, Forest L., Noel Michele Holbrook, James Weber, and Karla Sartor. "Mid-Missouri Energy: Ethanol from Corn." Harvard Business School Case 711-004, November 2010. (Revised December 2010.)
  • June 2017
  • Case

Magellan Boatworks

By: John A. Quelch and James T. Kindley
Magellan Boatworks is a midsize manufacturer of customized, power "cruising yachts." In the face of economic and political uncertainty in late 2016, Magellan's VP of sales and marketing, Walt Robinson, wonders whether he should request a budget increase for 2017.... View Details
Keywords: Marketing; Marketing Communications; Advertising; Strategy; Salesforce Management
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Quelch, John A., and James T. Kindley. "Magellan Boatworks." Harvard Business School Brief Case 917-547, June 2017.
  • 2016
  • Working Paper

Are 'Better' Ideas More Likely to Succeed? An Empirical Analysis of Startup Evaluation

By: Erin L. Scott, Pian Shu and Roman M. Lubynsky
This paper studies the uncertainty associated with screening early stage ventures. Using data on 652 ventures in high-growth industries, we examine whether experienced entrepreneurs, executives, and investors can predict the outcomes of early stage ventures by reading... View Details
Keywords: Commercialization; Entrepreneurship; Business Startups
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Scott, Erin L., Pian Shu, and Roman M. Lubynsky. "Are 'Better' Ideas More Likely to Succeed? An Empirical Analysis of Startup Evaluation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-013, July 2015. (Revised October 2016.)
  • August 2001
  • Technical Note

Technical Note on Expectations

By: Carliss Y. Baldwin
Reviews the mathematics of expectations embedded in a company's current stock price and the related (whole) enterprise value. Begins by showing how the current stock price can be compounded forward to arrive at an expectation one or more years in the future. Describes... View Details
Keywords: Performance Expectations; Price; Stocks
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Baldwin, Carliss Y. "Technical Note on Expectations." Harvard Business School Technical Note 902-055, August 2001.
  • October 2002 (Revised December 2003)
  • Case

Collabrys, Inc. (A)-The Evolution of a Startup

By: Dorothy A. Leonard and Brian DeLacey
The CEO of a two-year-old start-up must now decide whether to become a technology provider or a service agency. In a time of enormous uncertainty about the viability of various business models for Internet-delivered services and products, Collabrys has survived the... View Details
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Internet and the Web; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Corporate Strategy; Technological Innovation; Cost vs Benefits; Partners and Partnerships; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Startups; Corporate Finance; United States
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Leonard, Dorothy A., and Brian DeLacey. "Collabrys, Inc. (A)-The Evolution of a Startup." Harvard Business School Case 603-064, October 2002. (Revised December 2003.)
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