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Article

Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability

By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by... View Details

Keywords: Black Box Explanations; Bayesian Modeling; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology

2024
Working Paper

What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Estimating the Roles of Beliefs and Risk Preferences

By: Mark Egan, Alexander MacKay and Hanbin Yang

We present an empirical model of portfolio choice that allows for the nonparametric estimation of investors' (subjective) expectations and risk preferences. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of 401(k) plans from 2009 through 2019, we explore heterogeneity in asset... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Retirement Planning; Defined Contribution Retirement Plan; 401 (K); Finance; Investment Portfolio; Investment; Retirement; Behavioral Finance; Financial Services Industry; United States

Article

Accounting for Climate Change

By: Robert S. Kaplan and Karthik Ramanna

Corporations are facing growing pressure—from investors, advocacy groups, politicians, and even business leaders themselves—to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from their operations and their supply and distribution chains. About 90% of the companies in the S&P... View Details

Keywords: Greenhouse Gas Mitigation; Social Accounting; E-liabilities; Business And The Environment; Climate Change; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Environmental Sustainability

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2021
Working Paper

COVID-19, Government Performance, and Democracy: Survey Experimental Evidence from 12 Countries

By: Michael Becher, Nicholas Longuet Marx, Vincent Pons, Sylvain Brouard, Martial Foucault, Vincenzo Galasso, Eric Kerrouche, Sandra León Alfonso and Daniel Stegmueller

Beyond its immediate impact on public health and the economy, the COVID-19 pandemic has put democracy under stress. While a common view is that people should blame the government rather than the political system for bad crisis management, an opposing view is that... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Government Performance; Democracy; Health Pandemics; Government and Politics; Crisis Management; Public Opinion

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November 2021
Article

Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective

By: Iavor Bojinov, Ashesh Rambachan and Neil Shephard

In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects that capture the relative... View Details

Keywords: Panel Data; Dynamic Causal Effects; Potential Outcomes; Finite Population; Nonparametric; Mathematical Methods

2021
Working Paper

The Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes

By: Arlen Guarin, Christian Posso, Estefania Saravia and Jorge Tamayo

Identifying the effect of physicians’ skills on health outcomes is a challenging task due to the nonrandom sorting between physicians and hospitals. We overcome this challenge by exploiting a Colombian government program that randomly assigned 2,126 physicians to 618... View Details

Keywords: Physicians' Health Skills; Health Birth Outcomes; Birthing Outcomes; Experimental Evidence; Health Care and Treatment; Competency and Skills; Outcome or Result; Health Industry; Colombia

2021
Other Unpublished Work

Computer-Implemented Methods and Systems for Measuring, Estimating, and Managing Economic Outcomes and Technical Debt in Software Systems and Projects: US Patent 11,126,427 B2

By: Daniel J. Sturtevant, Carliss Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, Sunny Ahn and Sean Gilliland

An interrelated set of tools and methods is disclosed for: (1) measuring the relationship between software source code attributes (such as code quality, design quality, test quality, and complexity metrics) and software economics outcome metrics (such as... View Details

Keywords: Technical Debt; Applications and Software; Economics; Measurement and Metrics; Patents

Article

Measuring the Scientific Effectiveness of Contact Tracing: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

By: Thiemo Fetzer and Thomas Graeber

Contact tracing has for decades been a cornerstone of the public health approach to epidemics, including Ebola, severe acute respiratory syndrome, and now COVID-19. It has not yet been possible, however, to causally assess the method’s effectiveness using a randomized... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Contact Tracing; Public Health; Infectious Diseases; Health Pandemics

2021
Working Paper

Going to Extremes: Crucibles, Multiple Sensitive Periods, and Career Progression

By: Prithwiraj Choudhury, Sunasir Dutta, Hise O. Gibson and Eric Lin

We study the effects of crucible experiences along multiple sensitive periods on career progression. While prior literature has hinted that individuals can be imprinted during multiple sensitive periods, not just during the early career, there has been scant attention... View Details

Keywords: Jobs and Positions; Personal Development and Career; Management Skills; Human Capital

August 2021
Article

Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas

By: F.M. Hollenbach, I. Bojinov, S. Minhas, N.W. Metternich, M.D. Ward and A. Volfovsky

Missing observations are pervasive throughout empirical research, especially in the social sciences. Despite multiple approaches to dealing adequately with missing data, many scholars still fail to address this vital issue. In this paper, we present a simple-to-use... View Details

Keywords: Missing Data; Bayesian Statistics; Imputation; Categorical Data; Estimation

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2021
Working Paper

Dirty Money: How Banks Influence Financial Crime

By: Joseph Pacelli, Janet Gao, Jan Schneemeier and Yufeng Wu

On September 21st, 2020, a consortium of international journalists leaked nearly 2,500 suspicious activity reports (SAR) obtained from the U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, exposing nearly $2 trillion of money laundering activity. The event raises important... View Details

Keywords: Financial Institutions; Crime and Corruption; Policy

July 2021
Article

Material Sustainability Information and Stock Price Informativeness

By: Jody Grewal, Clarissa Hauptmann and George Serafeim

As part of the SEC’s revision of Regulation S-K, many investors proposed the mandatory disclosure of sustainability information in the form of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) data. However, progress is contingent on collecting evidence regarding which... View Details

Keywords: Voluntary Disclosure; Accounting Standards; Sustainability; Nonfinancial Information; Corporate Social Responsibility; Stock Price Informativeness; Synchronicity; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Disclosure; Corporate Accountability; Stocks; Price; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Accounting; Standards

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July 2021
Article

Medical Debt in the U.S., 2009–2020

By: Raymond Kluender, Neale Mahoney, Francis Wong and Wesley Yin

Importance: Medical debt is an increasing concern in the US, yet there is limited understanding of the amount and distribution of medical debt, and its association with health care policies.

Objective: To measure the amount of medical debt nationally and by... View Details

Keywords: Debt; Borrowing and Debt; Health Care and Treatment; United States

2021
Working Paper

Accounting for Product Impact in the Oil and Gas Industry

By: Katie Panella, George Serafeim and Katie Trinh

We apply the product impact measurement framework of the Impact-Weighted Accounts Initiative (IWAI) in two competitor companies within the oil and gas industry. We design a monetization methodology that allows us to calculate monetary product impact estimates of... View Details

2021
Working Paper

Accounting for Product Impact in the Pharmaceuticals Industry

By: Amanda Rischbieth, George Serafeim and Katie Trinh

We apply the product impact measurement framework of the Impact-Weighted Accounts Initiative (IWAI) in two competitor companies within the pharmaceuticals industry. We design a monetization methodology that allows us to calculate monetary impact estimates of accessible... View Details

2021
Working Paper

Impact Accounting for Product Use: A Framework and Industry-specific Models

By: George Serafeim and Katie Trinh

This handbook provides the first systematic attempt to generate a framework and industry-specific models for the measurement of impacts on customers and the environment from use of products and services, in monetary terms, that can then be reflected in financial... View Details

Keywords: Impact Measurement; Product Impact; Customer Welfare; Environment; ESG; Product; Customers; Well-being; Environmental Sustainability; Measurement and Metrics; Accounting; Financial Statements; Analysis; Framework

2021
Working Paper

Accounting for Product Impact in the Interactive Media and Services Industry

By: DG Park, George Serafeim and Katie Trinh

We apply the product impact measurement framework of the Impact-Weighted Accounts Initiative (IWAI) in two competitor companies within the interactive media and services industry. We design a monetization methodology that allows us to calculate monetary impact... View Details

2021
Article

Designing, Not Checking, for Policy Robustness: An Example with Optimal Taxation

By: Benjamin B. Lockwood, Afras Sial and Matthew C. Weinzierl

Economists typically check the robustness of their results by comparing them across plausible ranges of parameter values and model structures. A preferable approach to robustness—for the purposes of policymaking and evaluation—is to design policy that takes these... View Details

Keywords: Optimal Taxation; Income Tax; Social Welfare; Elasticity; Income; Taxation; Policy

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2023
Working Paper

Virtual Water Coolers: A Field Experiment on the Role of Virtual Interactions on Organizational Newcomer Performance

By: Prithwiraj Choudhury, Jacqueline N. Lane and Iavor Bojinov

Designing management practices to better onboard organizational newcomers working remotely is a key priority for firms. We report results from a randomized field experiment conducted at a large global firm that estimates the performance effects of different types of... View Details

Keywords: Remote Work; Virtual Water Coolers; Social Interactions; Careers; Field Experiment; Employees; Interpersonal Communication; Internet and the Web; Performance; Personal Development and Career

2021
Working Paper

Being the Boss: Gig Workers' Value of Flexible Work

By: Laura Katsnelson and Felix Oberholzer-Gee

Workers who join the gig economy face a challenging trade-off. Gig work provides worktime flexibility and a sense of being one’s own boss, but gig workers forgo certain protections that employees enjoy. In this paper, we study the work patterns of a large sample of... View Details

Keywords: Gig Workers; Flexible Work Arrangements; Worker Welfare; Labor; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms

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