Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(2,118)
- Faculty Publications (549)
- 2020
- Working Paper
Is Accounting Useful for Forecasting GDP Growth? A Machine Learning Perspective
We provide a comprehensive examination of whether, to what extent, and which accounting variables are useful for improving the predictive accuracy of GDP growth forecasts. We leverage statistical models that accommodate a broad set of (341) variables—outnumbering the... View Details
- 2021
- Working Paper
Diagnosing Quality: Learning, Amenities, and the Demand for Health Care
By: Achyuta Adhvaryu, Emilio Gutierrez, Anant Nyshadham and Jorge Tamayo
We study the role of amenities in increasing demand for underutilized healthcare services. We evaluate the offer of a high-amenity diagnostic consultation for cataracts with a randomized price and find that a lower price for the high-amenity consultation increases... View Details
- April 2021
- Article
Evaluating Firm-Level Expected-Return Proxies: Implications for Estimating Treatment Effects
By: Charles M.C. Lee, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang
We introduce a parsimonious framework for choosing among alternative expected-return proxies (ERPs) when estimating treatment effects. By comparing ERPs’ measurement-error variances in the cross section and in time series, we provide new evidence on the relative... View Details
- 2021
- Working Paper
Accounting for Product Impact in the Telecommunications Industry
By: George Serafeim and Katie Trinh
We apply the product impact measurement framework of the Impact-Weighted Accounts Initiative (IWAI) in two competitor companies within the telecommunications industry. We design a monetization methodology that allows us to calculate monetary impact estimates of network... View Details
Keywords: Product Innovation; Impact; Impact Investing; Impact Measurement; ESG; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; ESG Ratings; Social Corporate Responsibility; Corporate Social Responsibility; Social Impact; Telecommunications; Product Design; Product Positioning; Society; Product; Environmental Sustainability; Measurement and Metrics; Framework; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Telecommunications Industry
- 2021
- Working Paper
Accounting for Product Impact in the Water Utilities Industry
By: George Serafeim and Katie Trinh
We apply the product impact measurement framework of the Impact-Weighted Accounts Initiative (IWAI) in two competitor companies within the water utilities industry. We design a monetization methodology that allows us to calculate monetary impact estimates of water... View Details
Keywords: Product Innovation; Impact; Impact Investing; Impact Measurement; ESG; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; ESG Ratings; Social Corporate Responsibility; Corporate Social Responsibility; Social Impact; Water; Utilities; Product Design; Product Positioning; Society; Product; Environmental Sustainability; Measurement and Metrics; Framework; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Utilities Industry
- 2021
- Working Paper
Population Interference in Panel Experiments
By: Iavor I Bojinov, Kevin Wu Han and Guillaume Basse
The phenomenon of population interference, where a treatment assigned to one experimental unit affects another experimental unit's outcome, has received considerable attention in standard randomized experiments. The complications produced by population interference in... View Details
- March 2021
- Article
Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment
By: Yang Xiang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke and Samuel Gershman
This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of Bayesian noisy cognition in perceptual judgment, focusing on the central tendency effect: the well-known empirical regularity that perceptual judgments are biased towards the center of the... View Details
- 2021
- Working Paper
First Law of Motion: Influencer Video Advertising on TikTok
By: Jeremy Yang, Juanjuan Zhang and Yuhan Zhang
This paper engineers an intuitive feature that is predictive of the causal effect of influencer video advertising on product sales. We propose the concept of m-score, a summary statistic that captures the extent to which a product is advertised in the most engaging... View Details
- 2021
- Working Paper
How Much Should We Trust Staggered Difference-In-Differences Estimates?
By: Andrew C. Baker, David F. Larcker and Charles C.Y. Wang
Difference-in-differences analysis with staggered treatment timing is frequently used to assess the impact of policy changes on corporate outcomes in academic research. However, recent advances in econometric theory show that such designs are likely to be biased in the... View Details
- March 2021
- Article
International Trade and Social Connectedness
By: Michael Bailey, Abhinav Gupta, Sebastian Hillenbrand, Theresa Kuchler, Robert J. Richmond and Johannes Stroebel
We use de-identified data from Facebook to construct a new and publicly available measure of the pairwise social connectedness between 170 countries and 332 European regions. We find that two countries trade more when they are more socially connected, especially for... View Details
- March 2021
- Article
Loan Guarantees and Credit Supply
By: Natalie Bachas, Olivia S. Kim and Constantine Yannelis
The efficiency of federal lending guarantees depends on whether guarantees increase lending supply or simply act as a subsidy to lenders. We use notches in the guarantee rate schedule for Small Business Administration (SBA) loans to estimate the elasticity of bank... View Details
- March 2021
- Article
On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks
By: Laura Alfaro, Manuel García-Santana and Enrique Moral-Benito
We explore the real effects of bank-lending shocks and how they permeate the economy through buyer-supplier linkages. We combine administrative data on all Spanish firms with a matched bank-firm-loan dataset of all corporate loans from 2003 to 2013 to estimate... View Details
- March 2021
- Article
The Impact of the General Data Protection Regulation on Internet Interconnection
By: Ran Zhuo, Bradley Huffaker, KC Claffy and Shane Greenstein
The Internet comprises thousands of independently operated networks, where bilaterally negotiated interconnection agreements determine the flow of data between networks. The European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) imposes strict restrictions on... View Details
- 2021
- Working Paper
Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment
By: Patrick J. Ferguson and Karim R. Lakhani
Contests that are designed to be consumed for entertainment by non-contestants are a fixture of economic, cultural and political life. In this paper, we examine whether individuals prefer to consume contests that have more uncertain outcomes. We look to... View Details
- 2021
- Working Paper
Housing Consumption and the Cost of Remote Work
By: Christopher Stanton and Pratyush Tiwari
This paper estimates housing choice differences between households with and without remote workers. Prior to the pandemic, the expenditure share on housing was more than seven percent higher for remote households compared to similar non-remote households in the same... View Details
- January 2021 (Revised October 2021)
- Case
Ken Talbot—Cautionary Tale in Estate Planning
By: Christina R. Wing and Faith Lyons
In 2010, Ken Talbot, a self-made Australian billionaire, was traveling throughout Africa to bring his innovative coal technology to the continent when he perished in a plane crash. His will was originally created years prior when his estate worth was estimated to be AU... View Details
- January 2021 (Revised August 2021)
- Case
ByteDance: TikTok and the Trials of Going Viral
By: William C. Kirby and John P. McHugh
In 2020, TikTok became the most valuable start-up ever. The short-form, video-sharing social media platform emerged as the crown jewel of the Chinese technology firm ByteDance, realizing 850 million monthly users and an estimated worth of $180 billion. However, a... View Details
Keywords: China; Technology; Startup; Start-up; International Strategy; Global Strategy And Leadership; Innovation; Political Risk; Regulations; Trump; Foreign Policy; Foreign Investment; Chinese Internet Market; Global Strategy; Crisis Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Entrepreneurship; Globalized Economies and Regions; Government Legislation; Innovation and Management; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Internet and the Web; Social Media; Technology Industry; China; United States
- January 2021 (Revised March 2021)
- Supplement
E-Commerce Analytics for CPG Firms (A): Estimating Sales
By: Ayelet Israeli and Fedor (Ted) Lisitsyn
The E-Commerce Analytics group at the traditional CPG firm was in charge of compiling various online sales reports, as well as making data-driven recommendations for sales and marketing tactics. In a series of exercises, students address different data challenges for... View Details
Keywords: Data Analysis; Data Analytics; CPG; Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG); Estimation; Online Channel; Retail Analytics; Retail; Retailing Industry; Data; Data Sharing; Bricks And Mortar; Ecommerce; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Sales; Goods and Commodities; Retail Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States
- January 2021 (Revised March 2021)
- Exercise
E-Commerce Analytics for CPG Firms (A): Estimating Sales
By: Ayelet Israeli and Fedor (Ted) Lisitsyn
The E-Commerce Analytics group at the traditional CPG firm was in charge of compiling various online sales reports, as well as making data-driven recommendations for sales and marketing tactics. In a series of exercises, students address different data challenges for... View Details
Keywords: Data Analysis; Data Analytics; CPG; Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG); Estimation; Online Channel; Retail Analytics; Retail; Retailing Industry; Data; Data Sharing; Bricks And Mortar; Ecommerce; Direct-to-consumer; DTC; Analytics and Data Science; Sales; Marketing; E-commerce; Retail Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States
- January 2021
- Article
'Mobile'izing Agricultural Advice: Technology Adoption, Diffusion and Sustainability
By: Shawn A. Cole and A. Nilesh Fernando
We examine the role of management in agricultural productivity by evaluating a mobile-phone based agricultural advice service provided to farmers in India. Demand for advice is high, and advice changes practices, increasing yields in cumin (28%) and cotton (8.6% for a... View Details