Stock Price Informativeness - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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March 2001
Background Note

Extracting Information from the Futures and Forwards Markets: The Relation between Spot Prices, Forward Prices and Expected Future Spot Prices

Discounted cash flow valuation calls for using expected future prices of inputs or outputs. This case describes the relationship between spot prices, forward/future prices, and expected future prices. Knowing current forward and future prices alone is not enough to... View Details

Keywords: Price; Cash Flow; Valuation; Futures and Commodity Futures

February 2020 (Revised April 2021)
Case

StockX: The Stock Market of Things

By: Chiara Farronato, John J. Horton, Annelena Lobb and Julia Kelley

Founded in 2015 by Dan Gilbert, Josh Luber, and Greg Schwartz, StockX was an online platform where users could buy and sell unworn luxury and limited-edition sneakers. Sneaker resale prices often fluctuated over time based on supply and demand, creating a robust... View Details

December 2020
Article

Stock Market Returns and Consumption

By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani and Kaveh Majlesi

This paper employs Swedish data containing security level information on households' stock holdings to investigate how consumption responds to changes in stock market returns. We exploit households’ portfolio weights in previous years as an instrument for actual... View Details

Keywords: Capital Gain; Dividend Income; Consumption; Near-rational Behavior; Investment Return; Household; Spending; Behavior

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Article

Liquidity Provision and Stock Return Predictability

By: Mark Seasholes and Terrence Hendershott

This paper examines the trading behavior of two groups of liquidity providers (specialists and competing market makers) using a six-year panel of NYSE data. Trades of each group are negatively correlated with contemporaneous price changes. To test for return... View Details

Keywords: Liquidity; Market Makers; Market Efficiency; Inventory; Liquidity Provision; Market Design; Financial Liquidity; Stocks; Investment Return

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June 2020
Article

Lazy Prices

By: Lauren Cohen, Christopher J. Malloy and Quoc Nguyen

We explore the implications of a subtle "default" choice that firms make in their regular reporting practices, namely that firms typically repeat what they most recently reported. Using the complete history of regular quarterly and annual filings by U.S. corporations... View Details

Keywords: Default Behavior; Inertia; Firms; Disclosure; Information; Business or Company Management; Behavior; Annual Reports; Corporate Disclosure; Financial Reporting; United States

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October 2022
Case

Pricing at Echosec Systems

By: Elie Ofek, Marco Bertini, Annelena Lobb and Alexis Lefort

This case follows the evolution of pricing strategy at Echosec Systems, a Canadian open source intelligence firm. The case provides information on pricing as the company grows and diversifies its product offerings. View Details

Keywords: Marketing Strategy; Product Positioning; Price; Product Development; Information Industry; Canada; United States

Research Summary

Analyst Disagreement, Forecast Bias and Stock Returns

We present evidence of inefficient information processing in equity markets by documenting that biases in analysts' earnings forecasts are reflected in stock prices. In particular, investors fail to account for analysts' tendency to withhold negative views and to issue... View Details

March 2014
Background Note

Setting Price Effectively

By: Nava Ashraf and Kristin Johnson

Price is one of the most powerful instruments a manager can use to influence the take-up of her product, especially in a subsidized and noncompetitive market as is common for global health products. However, the question of whether and how to price has been the subject... View Details

April 2017
Teaching Note

Basecamp: Pricing

By: Frank V. Cespedes

This Teaching Note accompanies HBS No. 817-067 “Basecamp: Pricing” in which a data analyst at Basecamp is evaluating the results of pricing research and its potential implications for the venture's latest version of its project management software product. View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Price; Analysis; Customers; Product Marketing

Article

Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Stocks; Investment Return; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Volatility; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavioral Finance

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2002
Working Paper

Cost Reductions, Cost Padding and Stock Market Prices: The Chilean Experience with Price Cap Regulation

By: Rafael Di Tella and Alexander Dyck

2005
Working Paper

Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis

By: Randolph B. Cohen, Christopher Polk and Tuomo Vuolteenaho

Modigliani and Cohn [1979] hypothesize that the stock market suffers from money illusion, discounting real cash flows at nominal discount rates. While previous research has focused on the pricing of the aggregate stock market relative to Treasury bills, the... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Price; Cash Flow

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Fast Answer

Stock ownership: statistics

Where can I find data on institutional vs. individual ownership of equities in the U.S.? Institutional holding information going back to 1980 is available by using Thomson Reuters Ownership Databases in View Details

spring 2008
Article

Cost Reductions, Cost Padding and Stock Market Prices: The Chilean Experience with Price Cap Regulation

By: Rafael Di Tella and Alexander Dyck

Keywords: Cost; Price; Stocks; Markets; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Chile

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2023
Working Paper

The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking

By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato

Using confidential supervisory risk ratings, we document that banks increase risk after they go public compared to a control group of banks that filed to go public but withdrew their filings for plausibly exogenous reasons. The increase in risk increases short-term... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Banks and Banking; Going Public; Performance; Stocks

2005
Working Paper

Aggregate Corporate Liquidity and Stock Returns

By: Robin Greenwood

Aggregate investment in cash and liquid assets as a share of total corporate investment is negatively related to subsequent U.S. stock market returns between 1947 and 2003. The share of cash in total investment is a more stable predictor of returns than scaled price... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Financial Liquidity; Cash; Investment Return; Corporate Finance

22 Jul 2002
Research & Ideas

Is Performance-Based Pricing the Right Price for You?

pricing is only applicable to relatively large, important transactions/relationships for both the buyer and seller. The up-front cost of exchanging information and negotiating the performance goals and... View Details

Keywords: by Benson Shapiro; Manufacturing

2024
Working Paper

Climate Solutions, Transition Risk, and Stock Returns

By: Shirley Lu, Edward J. Riedl, Simon Xu and George Serafeim

Using large language models to measure firms' climate solution products and services, we find that high-climate solution firms exhibit lower stock returns and higher market valuation multiples. Their stock prices respond positively to events signaling increased demand... View Details

Keywords: Technology; Generative Ai; Large Language Models; Climate Finance; Climate Change; Innovation and Invention; Environmental Sustainability; AI and Machine Learning; Investment; Financial Markets

Lazy Prices

QuantCon NYC 2018 Quantitative Investing Confernece - Interview Video

Using the complete history of regular quarterly and annual filings by U.S. corporations from 1995-2014,... View Details

29 Apr 2015
Lessons from the Classroom

Use Personal Experience to Pick Winning Stocks

Let's face it: in most cases, the stock market knows what it's doing. With millions of people performing their homework and investing money in stocks they hope will pay off, it's hard for any one person to... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Financial Services

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