Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(1,451)
- Faculty Publications (303)
- 2016
- Working Paper
The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking
By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato
We argue that stock market pressure to generate earnings encourages banks to increase risk. We measure risk using confidential supervisory ratings as well as financial information released in regulatory filings. We document that there is an increase in the risk-taking... View Details
- June 2016
- Article
Local Currency Sovereign Risk
By: Wenxin Du and Jesse Schreger
We introduce a new measure of emerging market sovereign credit risk: the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk-free rate constructed using cross-currency swaps. We find that local currency... View Details
- May 2016
- Supplement
2016 Update: Argentina Turns the Page
By: David E. Bell, Forest Reinhardt and Natalie Kindred
This brief case is a supplement to “Cresud and Argentina” (515-043) and “Note on Agriculture in Argentina” (515-069). Set in early 2016, it describes developments in Argentina under newly elected President Mauricio Macri, including the country’s return to international... View Details
Keywords: Argentina; ＂ Cresud; Agriculture; Economic Reform; Economic Policy; Land Investment; Macri; Currency; Agribusiness; Diversification; Economy; Emerging Markets; Credit; Currency Exchange Rate; Investment; Business and Government Relations; Government and Politics; Inflation and Deflation; Trade; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Argentina; Buenos Aires; South America
- March 2016 (Revised October 2023)
- Case
Central European Distribution Corporation: Hostile Takeover, Bankruptcy Makeover
By: Stuart C. Gilson and Sarah L. Abbott
In early 2013, Central European Distribution Corporation (CEDC), a large publicly traded producer and distributer of vodka and spirits in Eastern and Central Europe, has suffered significant declines in its financial performance, is at risk of defaulting on its debt,... View Details
- March 2016
- Article
An Analysis of Firms' Self-reported Anticorruption Efforts
By: Paul M. Healy and George Serafeim
We use Transparency International's ratings of self-reported anticorruption efforts for 480 corporations to analyze factors underlying the ratings. Our tests examine whether these forms of disclosure reflect firms' real efforts to combat corruption or are cheap talk.... View Details
- 2016
- Working Paper
What Factors Drive Director Perceptions of Their Board's Effectiveness?
By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Richard Ellis Crum
We use a survey of directors to collect data on their ratings of board effectiveness as well as board internal dynamics and key processes. Controlling for many of the governance metrics examined by prior research, we find that directors’ ratings of their boards’... View Details
- January 26, 2016
- Article
Hiding Personal Information Reveals the Worst
By: Leslie K. John, Kate Barasz and Michael I. Norton
Seven experiments explore people's decisions to share or withhold personal information and the wisdom of such decisions. When people choose not to reveal information—to be "hiders"—they are judged negatively by others (experiment 1). These negative judgments emerge... View Details
- 2015
- Working Paper
The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications
By: Emil Siriwardane
I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details
- Article
Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market
By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
Reaching for yield—the propensity to buy riskier assets in order to achieve higher yields—is believed to be an important factor contributing to the credit cycle. This paper analyzes this phenomenon in the corporate bond market. Specifically, we show evidence for... View Details
- Article
The Cost of Capital for Alternative Investments
By: Jakub W. Jurek and Erik Stafford
Traditional risk factor models indicate that hedge funds capture pre-fee alphas of 6% to 10% per annum over the period from 1996 to 2012. At the same time, the hedge fund return series is not reliably distinguishable from the returns of mechanical S&P 500 put-writing... View Details
- Article
The Price Impact of Joining a Currency Union: Evidence from Latvia
By: Alberto Cavallo, Brent Neiman and Roberto Rigobon
Does membership in a currency union matter for a country’s international relative prices? The answer to this question is critical for thinking about the implications of joining (or exiting) a common currency area. This paper is the first to use high-frequency... View Details
- 2015
- Working Paper
Customers and Investors: A Framework for Understanding Financial Institutions
By: Robert C. Merton and Robert T. Thakor
Financial institutions have both investors and customers. Investors, such as those who invest in stocks and bonds or private/public-sector guarantors of institutions, expect an appropriate risk-adjusted return in exchange for the financing and risk-bearing that they... View Details
Keywords: Financial Institutions
- Article
Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Bank Regulation, Capital Structure and the Low Risk Anomaly
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
Traditional capital structure theory predicts that reducing banks' leverage reduces the risk and cost of equity but does not change the weighted average cost of capital, and thus the rates for borrowers. We confirm that the equity of better-capitalized banks has lower... View Details
- April 2015 (Revised January 2020)
- Case
Japan's Missing Arrow?
By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White
In late December 2014, Shinzo Abe was elected to another term as the prime minister of Japan. His re-election was largely interpreted as a vote of confidence for his economics policies, collectively referred to as "Abenomics." Comprised of three "arrows," including... View Details
Keywords: Currency; Bonds; Government Bonds; Government Debt; Public Finance; Quantitative Easing; Stimulus; Fiscal Policy; Fiscal Deficits; Debt Management; Debt Reduction; Abenomics; Exchange Rate; Exports; Reform; Economics; Macroeconomics; Policy; Government Legislation; Government and Politics; Asia; Japan
- April 2015
- Article
Incentivizing Calculated Risk-Taking: Evidence from an Experiment with Commercial Bank Loan Officers
By: Shawn Cole, Martin Kanz and Leora Klapper
This paper uses a series of experiments with commercial bank loan officers to test the effect of performance incentives on risk assessment and lending decisions. We first show that while high-powered incentives lead to greater screening effort and more profitable... View Details
- October 2014 (Revised February 2017)
- Case
A Currency We Can Call Our Own: Populism, Banking Crises, and Exchange Rate Crises in Argentina, 1946–2002
By: Rafael Di Tella
The case describes Argentina's struggle to establish a credible monetary system under populist pressures and the recurrent use of exchange rate stabilization plans. It focuses on two episodes where there was "too little money" in the economy: during the hyperinflation... View Details
- 2014
- Working Paper
Adding Value Through Venture Capital in Latin America and the Caribbean
By: Josh Lerner, Ann Leamon, James Tighe and Susana Garcia-Robles
Venture capital (VC) investment has long been recognized as an engine for economic growth and development. Unlike bank loans, where the entrepreneur receives money and is left alone as long as the payments arrive on the pre-arranged schedule, venture capital... View Details
- Fall 2014
- Article
Seesaws and Social Security Benefits Indexing
The price indexation of Social Security benefit payments has emerged in recent years as a flashpoint of debate in the United States. I characterize the direct effects that changes in that price index would have on retirees who differ in their initial wealth at... View Details
- August 2014
- Article
Mortgage Convexity
By: Samuel G. Hanson
Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS... View Details