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      • Faculty Publications  (606)

      Economic Value EstimationRemove Economic Value Estimation →

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      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Electoral Turnovers

      By: Benjamin Marx, Vincent Pons and Vincent Rollet
      In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and... View Details
      Keywords: Election Outcomes; Regression Discontinuity Design; Political Elections; Change; Global Range; Outcome or Result; Economy; Governance; Performance Improvement
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      Marx, Benjamin, Vincent Pons, and Vincent Rollet. "Electoral Turnovers." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29766, February 2022. (Revise and resubmit requested, Review of Economic Studies.)
      • January 2022
      • Background Note

      Common Prosperity? China Shifts Left

      By: William C. Kirby and Noah B. Truwit
      Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been mistrustful of entrepreneurs and the private sector that operates outside the government’s authority. In its first decades under Mao Zedong, the CCP... View Details
      Keywords: Market Reform; Gdp; Government Administration; Government and Politics; Private Sector; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Economy; Globalized Economies and Regions; Entrepreneurship; Business and Government Relations; Globalized Markets and Industries; Social Issues; Society; Economic Growth; China
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      Kirby, William C., and Noah B. Truwit. "Common Prosperity? China Shifts Left." Harvard Business School Background Note 322-069, January 2022.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Alleviating Time Poverty Among the Working Poor: A Pre-Registered Longitudinal Field Experiment

      By: A.V. Whillans and Colin West
      Poverty entails more than a scarcity of material resources—it also involves a shortage of time. To examine the causal benefits of reducing time poverty, we conducted a longitudinal feld experiment over six consecutive weeks in an urban slum in Kenya with a sample of... View Details
      Keywords: Time; Subjective Well Being; Administrative Costs; Friction; Poverty; Well-being; Money; Perception; Kenya
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      Whillans, A.V., and Colin West. "Alleviating Time Poverty Among the Working Poor: A Pre-Registered Longitudinal Field Experiment." Art. 719. Scientific Reports 12 (2022).
      • January 2022 (Revised February 2022)
      • Case

      Introducing EVA at ISS: A Better Way to Evaluate CEO Performance and Compensation?

      By: Jonas Heese, Charles C.Y. Wang and James Weber
      In early 2019, Anthony Campagna, the global director of fundamental research at ISS EVA, a unit of the proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), was preparing to release ISS's analyses of public company performance and CEO compensation ahead of Say... View Details
      Keywords: Jobs and Positions; Compensation and Benefits; Performance; Performance Productivity; Measurement and Metrics; Analytics and Data Science; Value; Business or Company Management; Performance Evaluation; Business and Shareholder Relations
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      Heese, Jonas, Charles C.Y. Wang, and James Weber. "Introducing EVA at ISS: A Better Way to Evaluate CEO Performance and Compensation?" Harvard Business School Case 122-061, January 2022. (Revised February 2022.)
      • January 2022
      • Article

      Replicating Private Equity with Value Investing, Homemade Leverage, and Hold-to-Maturity Accounting

      By: Erik Stafford
      The contributions of asset selection and incremental leverage to buyout investment performance are more important than typically assumed or estimated to be. Buyout funds select small firms with distinct value characteristics. Public equities with these characteristics... View Details
      Keywords: Replicating Portfolio; Private Equity; Investment Portfolio
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      Stafford, Erik. "Replicating Private Equity with Value Investing, Homemade Leverage, and Hold-to-Maturity Accounting." Review of Financial Studies 35, no. 1 (January 2022): 299–342.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Stock Investors' Returns Are Exaggerated

      By: Jesse M. Fried, Paul Ma and Charles C.Y. Wang
      The stock market generates less wealth than it appears. We show that total shareholder return (TSR), the standard measure of stock investor performance, substantially exaggerates returns earned by these investors in aggregate, and thus by most investors. The main... View Details
      Keywords: All-shareholder Returns; Capital Flows; Dividend Reinvestment; Equity Premium; Total Shareholder Returns; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Timing
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      Fried, Jesse M., Paul Ma, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Stock Investors' Returns Are Exaggerated." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-036, November 2021.
      • Article

      A Prescriptive Analytics Framework for Optimal Policy Deployment Using Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

      By: Edward McFowland III, Sandeep Gangarapu, Ravi Bapna and Tianshu Sun
      We define a prescriptive analytics framework that addresses the needs of a constrained decision-maker facing, ex ante, unknown costs and benefits of multiple policy levers. The framework is general in nature and can be deployed in any utility maximizing context, public... View Details
      Keywords: Prescriptive Analytics; Heterogeneous Treatment Effects; Optimization; Observed Rank Utility Condition (OUR); Between-treatment Heterogeneity; Machine Learning; Decision Making; Analysis; Mathematical Methods
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      McFowland III, Edward, Sandeep Gangarapu, Ravi Bapna, and Tianshu Sun. "A Prescriptive Analytics Framework for Optimal Policy Deployment Using Heterogeneous Treatment Effects." MIS Quarterly 45, no. 4 (December 2021): 1807–1832.
      • November 2021 (Revised December 2022)
      • Case

      Babban Gona: Great Farm

      By: Kristin Fabbe, Tarun Khanna, Caroline M. Elkins, Zeke Gillman, Eleni Kyrkopoulou and Thomaz Teodorovicz
      In 2020, Babban Gona was one of the world’s largest farming operations with over 140,000 acres of maize farms, an area over ten times as large as Manhattan, and over 80,000 member-farmers in Nigeria. According to the company, the average Nigerian farmer’s net income... View Details
      Keywords: Growth and Development Strategy; Entrepreneurship; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Value Creation; Agribusiness; Capital Budgeting; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Nigeria; Africa
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      Fabbe, Kristin, Tarun Khanna, Caroline M. Elkins, Zeke Gillman, Eleni Kyrkopoulou, and Thomaz Teodorovicz. "Babban Gona: Great Farm." Harvard Business School Case 722-027, November 2021. (Revised December 2022.)
      • Article

      Accounting for Climate Change

      By: Robert S. Kaplan and Karthik Ramanna
      Corporations are facing growing pressure—from investors, advocacy groups, politicians, and even business leaders themselves—to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from their operations and their supply and distribution chains. About 90% of the companies in the S&P... View Details
      Keywords: Greenhouse Gas Mitigation; Social Accounting; E-liabilities; Business And The Environment; Climate Change; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Environmental Sustainability
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      Kaplan, Robert S., and Karthik Ramanna. "Accounting for Climate Change." Harvard Business Review 99, no. 6 (November–December 2021): 120–131.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      COVID-19, Government Performance, and Democracy: Survey Experimental Evidence from 12 Countries

      By: Michael Becher, Nicholas Longuet Marx, Vincent Pons, Sylvain Brouard, Martial Foucault, Vincenzo Galasso, Eric Kerrouche, Sandra León Alfonso and Daniel Stegmueller
      Beyond its immediate impact on public health and the economy, the COVID-19 pandemic has put democracy under stress. While a common view is that people should blame the government rather than the political system for bad crisis management, an opposing view is that... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Government Performance; Democracy; Health Pandemics; Government and Politics; Crisis Management; Public Opinion
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      Becher, Michael, Nicholas Longuet Marx, Vincent Pons, Sylvain Brouard, Martial Foucault, Vincenzo Galasso, Eric Kerrouche, Sandra León Alfonso, and Daniel Stegmueller. "COVID-19, Government Performance, and Democracy: Survey Experimental Evidence from 12 Countries." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29514, November 2021. (Revise and resubmit requested, The Journal of Politics.)
      • November 2021
      • Article

      Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective

      By: Iavor Bojinov, Ashesh Rambachan and Neil Shephard
      In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects that capture the relative... View Details
      Keywords: Panel Data; Dynamic Causal Effects; Potential Outcomes; Finite Population; Nonparametric; Mathematical Methods
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      Bojinov, Iavor, Ashesh Rambachan, and Neil Shephard. "Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective." Quantitative Economics 12, no. 4 (November 2021): 1171–1196.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      The Business of K-12 Education in China

      By: Geoffrey Jones and Yuhai Wu
      This working paper examines the evolution of K-12 education in China, especially between 1985 and the present day, drawing extensive interviews with participants in the educational sector. China has been hugely successful in reaching almost 100 percent literacy,... View Details
      Keywords: K-12 Education; China; Real Estate; Early Childhood Education; Performance Evaluation; Teaching; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Personal Development and Career; Social Issues; Nonprofit Organizations; Private Sector; Education Industry; Real Estate Industry; China
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      Jones, Geoffrey, and Yuhai Wu. "The Business of K-12 Education in China." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-022, October 2021.
      • 2021
      • Report

      The Economic Impact of the Market-Making Internet Advertising, Content, Commerce, and Innovation

      By: John A. Deighton and Leora Kornfeld
      This research about the economic value of the Internet is conducted approximately every four years and highlights the importance of the internet ecosystem, which enables job creation and market-making opportunities. This highly valued, extensive piece of economic... View Details
      Keywords: Internet and the Web; Digital Marketing; Innovation and Invention; Communication Technology; Social Media; Advertising; Value; Brands and Branding
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      Deighton, John A., and Leora Kornfeld. "The Economic Impact of the Market-Making Internet Advertising, Content, Commerce, and Innovation." Report, Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), New York, October 2021.
      • Article

      Business Investment in Education in Emerging Markets Since the 1960s

      By: Valeria Giacomin, Geoffrey Jones and Erica Salvaj
      This article examines non-profit investments by business in education in emerging markets between the 1960s and the present day. Using a sample of 110 interviews with business leaders from an oral history database, the study shows that more than three-quarters of such... View Details
      Keywords: Economic History; Oral History; Education; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Business History; Emerging Markets; Reputation; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Education Industry; Africa; Asia; Latin America; Middle East; India; Chile; Colombia; Sri Lanka; Kenya
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      Giacomin, Valeria, Geoffrey Jones, and Erica Salvaj. "Business Investment in Education in Emerging Markets Since the 1960s." Business History 63, no. 7 (September 2021): 1113–1143.
      • 2021
      • Other Unpublished Work

      Computer-Implemented Methods and Systems for Measuring, Estimating, and Managing Economic Outcomes and Technical Debt in Software Systems and Projects: US Patent 11,126,427 B2

      By: Daniel J. Sturtevant, Carliss Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, Sunny Ahn and Sean Gilliland
      An interrelated set of tools and methods is disclosed for: (1) measuring the relationship between software source code attributes (such as code quality, design quality, test quality, and complexity metrics) and software economics outcome metrics (such as... View Details
      Keywords: Technical Debt; Applications and Software; Economics; Measurement and Metrics; Patents
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      Sturtevant, Daniel J., Carliss Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, Sunny Ahn, and Sean Gilliland. "Computer-Implemented Methods and Systems for Measuring, Estimating, and Managing Economic Outcomes and Technical Debt in Software Systems and Projects: US Patent 11,126,427 B2." Cambridge, MA, September 2021.
      • August 2021 (Revised March 2023)
      • Technical Note

      Crossing Borders and Cultures: Global Branding

      By: Jill Avery and Michael Moynihan
      Many of the world's most valuable brands are global in scope. They benefit from shared meanings, systems, and stories across markets, and much of their allure for consumers lies in their "global-ness." Creating value from global brands requires successfully managing... View Details
      Keywords: Global Branding; Marketing; Brands and Branding; Globalized Markets and Industries; Supply and Industry; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Value Creation
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      Avery, Jill, and Michael Moynihan. "Crossing Borders and Cultures: Global Branding." Harvard Business School Technical Note 522-032, August 2021. (Revised March 2023.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      The Changing Role of Business in Society

      By: Michael E. Porter
      Business interaction with the U.S. government, historically based on securing industry or company special interests at the expense of the public good, has enabled and furthered government dysfunction. Gridlock within the American political system has precluded the... View Details
      Keywords: Politics; Shared Value; Social Progress Index; Competitiveness; Walmart; BlackRock; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; ESG; Transparency; Campaign Contributions; Campaign Finance; Lobbying; Revolving Door; Political Ideology; Political Parties; Political Partisanship; Government And Business; Government Innovation; Elections; Democracy; Capitalism; Stakeholder Capitalism; Shareholder Engagement; Competition; Strategy; Government and Politics; Society; Social Issues; Human Needs; Wealth and Poverty; Business and Community Relations; Business and Government Relations; Corporate Accountability; Financial Services Industry; Banking Industry; United States
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      Porter, Michael E. "The Changing Role of Business in Society." Working Paper, July 2021.
      • 2021
      • Book

      The Power of Trust: How Companies Build It, Lose It, Regain It

      By: Sandra J. Sucher and Shalene Gupta
      Trust is the most powerful force underlying the success of every business. Yet it can be shattered in an instant, with a devastating impact on a company’s market cap and reputation. How to build and sustain trust requires fresh insight into why customers, employees,... View Details
      Keywords: Power; Corporate Culture; Future Of Work; Innovation; Technology Strategy; Automation; Stakeholder Engagement; Employee Attitude; Customer Behavior; Shareholder Value; Government And Business; Impact Investing; Corporate Change And Sustainability; Trust; Power and Influence; Globalization; Leadership; Organizational Culture; Innovation and Invention; Human Resources; Information Technology; Strategy; Corporate Accountability; Asia; Europe; South America; Middle East; North and Central America
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      Sucher, Sandra J., and Shalene Gupta. The Power of Trust: How Companies Build It, Lose It, Regain It. New York: PublicAffairs, 2021.
      • Article

      The Economic Consequences of Bankruptcy Reform

      By: Tal Gross, Raymond Kluender, Feng Liu, Matthew J. Notowidigdo and Jialan Wang
      A more generous consumer bankruptcy system provides greater insurance against financial risks but may also raise the cost of credit. We study this trade-off using the 2005 Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act (BAPCPA), which increased the costs of... View Details
      Keywords: Bankruptcy; Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention And Consumer Protection Act; Borrowing and Debt; Credit
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      Gross, Tal, Raymond Kluender, Feng Liu, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, and Jialan Wang. "The Economic Consequences of Bankruptcy Reform." American Economic Review 111, no. 7 (July 2021): 2309–2341.
      • 2021
      • Article

      Designing, Not Checking, for Policy Robustness: An Example with Optimal Taxation

      By: Benjamin B. Lockwood, Afras Sial and Matthew C. Weinzierl
      Economists typically check the robustness of their results by comparing them across plausible ranges of parameter values and model structures. A preferable approach to robustness—for the purposes of policymaking and evaluation—is to design policy that takes these... View Details
      Keywords: Optimal Taxation; Income Tax; Social Welfare; Elasticity; Income; Taxation; Policy
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      Lockwood, Benjamin B., Afras Sial, and Matthew C. Weinzierl. "Designing, Not Checking, for Policy Robustness: An Example with Optimal Taxation." Tax Policy and the Economy 35 (2021).
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