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- 2024
- Working Paper
The Evolution of Financial Services in the United States
By: Robin Greenwood, David S. Scharfstein and Robert Ialenti
This article surveys the literature on the historical growth and transformation of the U.S. financial sector. The sector expanded rapidly between 1980 until 2006, when its contribution to GDP rose from 4.8% to 7.6%. After the Global Financial Crisis, the size of the... View Details
- 2023
- Other Unpublished Work
Unprecedented: Remote Work and the Strange Economy of 2023
The low unemployment rate which suggests a strong economy and the low productivity and GDP growth that seems more consistent with less robust conditions sit uneasily together. It's a mystery! But it may be that societal changes like remote work can reconcile the... View Details
- January 2022
- Background Note
Common Prosperity? China Shifts Left
By: William C. Kirby and Noah B. Truwit
Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been mistrustful of entrepreneurs and the private sector that operates outside the government’s authority. In its first decades under Mao Zedong, the CCP... View Details
Keywords: Market Reform; Gdp; Government Administration; Government and Politics; Private Sector; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Economy; Globalized Economies and Regions; Entrepreneurship; Business and Government Relations; Globalized Markets and Industries; Social Issues; Society; Economic Growth; China
- 2024
- Working Paper
What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Estimating the Roles of Beliefs and Risk Preferences
By: Mark Egan, Alexander MacKay and Hanbin Yang
We present an empirical model of portfolio choice that allows for the nonparametric estimation of investors' (subjective) expectations and risk preferences. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of 401(k) plans from 2009 through 2019, we explore heterogeneity in asset... View Details
- 2020
- Working Paper
Is Accounting Useful for Forecasting GDP Growth? A Machine Learning Perspective
We provide a comprehensive examination of whether, to what extent, and which accounting variables are useful for improving the predictive accuracy of GDP growth forecasts. We leverage statistical models that accommodate a broad set of (341) variables—outnumbering the... View Details
- March 2021 (Revised December 2023)
- Case
Capitalism and the Party-State: The People's Republic of China at 70
By: Meg Rithmire and Courtney Han
In 2019, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) turned seventy-years-old and became the longest active authoritarian regime in recent history. By then, China was the world’s second largest economy by GDP (after the United States), and a high-technology industrial... View Details
- 2021
- Article
Leisure Beliefs and the Subjective Well-being of Nations
By: Lucia Macchia and A.V. Whillans
Here, we construct a data set of 79 countries (N = 220,000) and explore whether differences in the prioritization of time (leisure) vs. money (work) explain cross-country differences in happiness. Consistent with our predictions, countries whose citizens value leisure... View Details
Keywords: Leisure; Work; Subjective Well-being; Public Policy; Employment; Happiness; Governance; Policy
- January 2021
- Article
Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times
By: Philippe Aghion, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
What is the optimal form of firm organization during “bad times”? We present a model of delegation within the firm to show that the effect is ambiguous. The greater turbulence following macro shocks may benefit decentralized firms because the value of local information... View Details
- November 2020
- Article
The Role of Taxes in the Disconnect Between Corporate Performance and Economic Growth
By: Urooj Khan, Suresh Nallareddy and Ethan Rouen
We investigate the relation between the growth in corporate profits and the overall U.S. economy, focusing on the impact of the U.S. corporate tax regime on this relation. We document that the growth of corporate profits, on average, has outpaced the growth of the... View Details
- July 2020
- Teaching Note
COVID-19: The Global Shutdown
By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
In the first months of 2020, a pandemic overwhelmed the world. COVID-19, commonly known as the coronavirus, spread from China and created a severe public health emergency across countries. While an immediate fear of the disease’s impact on human life permeaacted... View Details
- May 2020 (Revised July 2020)
- Case
COVID-19: The Global Shutdown
By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
In the first months of 2020, a pandemic overwhelmed the world. COVID-19, commonly known as the coronavirus, spread from China and created a severe public health emergency across countries. While an immediate fear of the disease’s impact on human life permeated society,... View Details
- April 2020 (Revised August 2021)
- Case
Singapore: 'Facing Challenges Together'
Since its expulsion from Malaysia in 1965, Singapore had transformed itself from a third world island nation into a vibrant city-state with one of the highest levels of GDP per capita in the world. However, sluggish demand among Singapore's major trade partners began... View Details
Keywords: Savings; Productivity Growth; Productivity; Economic Institutions; Economic Development; Government And Business; Government Policy; Economic Policy; Country Analysis; Investment And Savings; Institutions; Economic Growth; Macroeconomics; Development Economics; Investment; Government and Politics; Trade; Policy; Research and Development; Analysis; Economics; Business and Government Relations; Asia; Singapore; Southeast Asia
- 2020
- Chapter
Health Care Markets a Decade After the ACA: Bigger, but Probably Not Better
By: Leemore S. Dafny
Love it or hate it, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) embraced and extended the role of private markets in financing and delivering health care in the United States. Ten years after the ACA’s passage, it is unclear whether health care markets are better (along a range of... View Details
- 2020
- Chapter
El problema de la productividad [The Productivity Problem]
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
The weak performance of the Latin American region in terms of the growth of its GDP is largely due to its low productivity growth. In fact, the region's main problem has been its lack of efficiency in combining capital and labor to produce. In this chapter, we... View Details
Keywords: GDP Growth; Productivity Growth; Efficiency; Labor; Capital; Growth and Development; Latin America
- August 2019 (Revised July 2023)
- Course Overview Note
Demystifying the Family Enterprise
By: Christina R. Wing and Madeline Keulen
90% of the GDP in the world is created through family-owned businesses. Family businesses are frequently thought to be exclusively mom-and-pop, small businesses. Most fail to realize that Walmart, Fidelity, Cargill, Koch Industries, and Ford, to name a few, are all... View Details
- 2019
- Chapter
The Great Divergence and the Great Convergence
By: Geoffrey Jones
This chapter provides a new lens to the extensive debate among economists and economic historians concerning why the West grew rich and the rest of the world lagged behind as modern industrialization took hold in the 19th century. The literature has focused heavily on... View Details
- May 2019
- Article
Corporate Debt, Firm Size and Financial Fragility in Emerging Markets
By: Laura Alfaro, Gonzalo Asis, Anusha Chari and Ugo Panizza
The post-Global Financial Crisis period shows a surge in corporate leverage in emerging markets and a number of countries with deteriorated corporate financial fragility indicators (Altman’s Z-score). Firm size plays a critical role in the relationship between... View Details
- January 2019 (Revised December 2020)
- Case
Angola Starts Now
By: Jeremy Friedman and Sophus A. Reinert
After five centuries of colonialism, four decades of civil war, an extended experiment with Marxism-Leninism, and nearly four decades of rule by a single man, José Eduardo Dos Santos, Angola finally has a chance to realize its enormous economic potential. A country... View Details
- August 2018
- Case
Enfoca: Private Equity in Peru
By: Victoria Ivashina and Jeffrey Boyar
This case follows Enfoca, Peru’s largest local private equity firm and its portfolio company Maestro, a leading player in Peru’s hardware retail market. Peru’s GDP growth between 2008 and 2014 was the highest of any Latin American country. Growth of the Peruvian middle... View Details
- Article
The Asymmetric Experience of Positive and Negative Economic Growth: Global Evidence Using Subjective Well-being Data
By: Jan-Emmanuel De Neve, George Ward, Femke De Keulenaer, Bert Van Landeghem, Georgios Kavetsos and Michael I. Norton
Are individuals more sensitive to losses than gains in terms of economic growth? We find that measures of subjective well-being are more than twice as sensitive to negative as compared to positive economic growth. We use Gallup World Poll data from over 150 countries,... View Details