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    • Faculty Publications  (252)

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    • All HBS Web  (1,599)
      • Faculty Publications  (252)

      Economic RiskRemove Economic Risk →

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      • January–February 2017
      • Article

      Africa's New Generation of Innovators

      By: Clayton M. Christensen, Efosa Ojomo and Derek van Bever
      With a young, urbanizing population, abundant natural resources, and a growing middle class, Africa seems to have all the ingredients necessary for huge growth. Nevertheless, a number of multinationals have recently left the continent, discouraged by widespread... View Details
      Keywords: Innovation Strategy; Multinational Firms and Management; Economic Growth; Africa
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      Christensen, Clayton M., Efosa Ojomo, and Derek van Bever. "Africa's New Generation of Innovators." Harvard Business Review 95, no. 1 (January–February 2017): 129–136.
      • Article

      The Impact of Personal Genomics on Risk Perceptions and Medical Decision-Making

      By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Fiona Murray, J. Scott Roberts and Robert C. Green
      Keywords: Medicine; Psychology; Economics; Policy
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      Krieger, Joshua Lev, Fiona Murray, J. Scott Roberts, and Robert C. Green. "The Impact of Personal Genomics on Risk Perceptions and Medical Decision-Making." Nature Biotechnology 34, no. 9 (September 2016): 912–918.
      • 2018
      • Working Paper

      Bank Risk-Taking and the Real Economy: Evidence from the Housing Boom and Its Aftermath

      By: Antonio Falato, Giovanni Favara and David Scharfstein
      The short-termism of lenders amplifies boom-bust credit cycles, leading in turn to real costs for the aggregate economy. During the U.S. housing credit boom, publicly-traded banks increased mortgage lending activity and relaxed standards much more than privately-held... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Investment; Corporate Finance; Banks and Banking
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      Falato, Antonio, Giovanni Favara, and David Scharfstein. "Bank Risk-Taking and the Real Economy: Evidence from the Housing Boom and Its Aftermath." Working Paper.
      • September 2016
      • Article

      Monitoring Global Supply Chains

      By: Jodi L. Short, Michael W. Toffel and Andrea R. Hugill
      Firms seeking to avoid reputational spillovers that can arise from dangerous, illegal, and unethical behavior at supply chain factories are increasingly relying on private social auditors to provide strategic information about suppliers' conduct. But little is known... View Details
      Keywords: Monitoring; Transaction Cost Economics; Industry Self-regulation; Auditing; Codes Of Conduct; Supply Chains; Corporate Social Responsibility; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Supply Chain; Globalization
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      Short, Jodi L., Michael W. Toffel, and Andrea R. Hugill. "Monitoring Global Supply Chains." Strategic Management Journal 37, no. 9 (September 2016): 1878–1897. (Video abstract (4 minutes). Working Knowledge article for practitioners.)
      • August 2, 2016
      • Article

      Uncalculating Cooperation Is Used to Signal Trustworthiness

      By: Jillian J. Jordan, Moshe Hoffman, Martin A. Nowak and David G. Rand
      Humans frequently cooperate without carefully weighing the costs and benefits. As a result, people may wind up cooperating when it is not worthwhile to do so. Why risk making costly mistakes? Here, we present experimental evidence that reputation concerns provide an... View Details
      Keywords: Social Evaluation; Experimental Economics; Moral Psychology; Cooperation; Reputation; Decision Making
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      Jordan, Jillian J., Moshe Hoffman, Martin A. Nowak, and David G. Rand. "Uncalculating Cooperation Is Used to Signal Trustworthiness." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 31 (August 2, 2016): 8658–8663.
      • June 24, 2016
      • Other Article

      Why Brexit Is a Big Deal

      By: John A. Quelch
      The consequences of yesterday's vote by the British people to leave the European Union will be far-reaching, but there is no reason for global markets to panic.
      Brexit is a vote against the European Union. Once heralded as the engine of a one-for-all and... View Details
      Keywords: British Vote; Brexit; European Union; Impact; Historical Result; Governing Rules, Regulations, And Reforms; Disruption; Transition; Volatility; Decision Making; Globalization; Government and Politics; History; Leadership; Outcome or Result; Risk and Uncertainty; Strategy; European Union; Republic of Ireland; United Kingdom
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      Quelch, John A. "Why Brexit Is a Big Deal." Harvard Business School Working Knowledge (June 24, 2016). (Republished by Forbes.com on June 24, 2016 at: http://www.forbes.com/sites/hbsworkingknowledge/2016/06/24/why-brexit-is-a-big-deal/#2c5e5c587297.)
      • June 2016
      • Case

      The Redevelopment of Palazzo Tornabuoni (A)

      By: Sid Yog, Arthur I Segel and Ricardo Andrade
      In the spring of 2004, Byrne Murphy and his partners at Fingen Group discussed options to redevelop Palazzo Tornabuoni, an iconic 15th century palace in the heart of Florence, Italy. The possibilities included turning the upper floors into office space, hotel rooms,... View Details
      Keywords: Palazzo Tornabuoni; Private Residence Club; Florence; Italy; Timeshare; Fractional Ownership; Property; Real Estate Industry; Italy; Europe
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      Yog, Sid, Arthur I Segel, and Ricardo Andrade. "The Redevelopment of Palazzo Tornabuoni (A)." Harvard Business School Case 216-069, June 2016.
      • May 2016 (Revised June 2017)
      • Case

      India's Amul: Keeping Up with the Times

      By: Rohit Deshpandé, Tarun Khanna, Namrata Arora and Tanya Bijlani
      Amul is an Indian dairy cooperative founded in 1947—eight months before India's independence from British rule—and owned by over three million farmers in the state of Gujarat. It is India's largest food product marketing organization, selling 46 products, including... View Details
      Keywords: Globalization; Expansion; Dairy; India; Cooperatives; Milk; Leadership; Agriculture; Agribusiness; Competition; Marketing; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; India
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      Deshpandé, Rohit, Tarun Khanna, Namrata Arora, and Tanya Bijlani. "India's Amul: Keeping Up with the Times." Harvard Business School Case 516-116, May 2016. (Revised June 2017.)
      • Article

      Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores

      By: Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Raymond Kluender and Paul Schrimpf
      "Big data" and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which... View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Risk and Uncertainty; Insurance Industry
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      Einav, Liran, Amy Finkelstein, Raymond Kluender, and Paul Schrimpf. "Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 8, no. 2 (April 2016): 195–224.
      • April 2016 (Revised December 2019)
      • Case

      Dan Gilbert: Crazy or Crazy Like a Fox?

      By: Nori Gerardo Lietz
      Keywords: Detroit; Rock Ventures; Dan Gilbert; Real Estate; Buildings and Facilities; Demographics; Financial Crisis; Government and Politics; Housing; Risk and Uncertainty; Real Estate Industry; United States
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      Lietz, Nori Gerardo. "Dan Gilbert: Crazy or Crazy Like a Fox?" Harvard Business School Case 216-066, April 2016. (Revised December 2019.)
      • 2017
      • Working Paper

      Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management

      By: Luke C.D. Stein and Charles C.Y. Wang
      In the presence of managerial short-termism and asymmetric information about skill and effort provision, firms may opportunistically shift earnings from uncertain to more certain times. We document empirically that when financial markets are less certain about a firm's... View Details
      Keywords: Discretionary Accruals; Uncertainty; Implied Volatility; Earnings Response Coefficient; Risk and Uncertainty; Earnings Management; Financial Markets
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      Stein, Luke C.D., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-103, March 2016. (Revised April 2017.)
      • March 2016 (Revised November 2021)
      • Teaching Note

      T-Mobile in 2013: The Un-Carrier

      By: John Beshears and Francesca Gino
      By 2013, the U.S. wireless industry was in the midst of a costly transition. As consumers began to embrace more sophisticated mobile devices, the industry's four main players spent heavily to improve their infrastructures for providing reliable high-speed data... View Details
      Keywords: Wireless Industry; Telecommunications; Mobile; Service Contracts; Behavioral Economics; Add-on Fees; Shrouded Attributes; Contracts; Competitive Strategy; Consumer Behavior; Infrastructure; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Telecommunications Industry; United States
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      Beshears, John, and Francesca Gino. "T-Mobile in 2013: The Un-Carrier." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 916-048, March 2016. (Revised November 2021.)
      • 2015
      • Working Paper

      The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

      By: Emil Siriwardane
      I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics
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      Siriwardane, Emil. "The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-061, November 2015.
      • Article

      Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market

      By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
      Reaching for yield—the propensity to buy riskier assets in order to achieve higher yields—is believed to be an important factor contributing to the credit cycle. This paper analyzes this phenomenon in the corporate bond market. Specifically, we show evidence for... View Details
      Keywords: Fixed Income; Reaching For Yield; Financial Intermediation; Insurance Companies; Insurance; Assets; Bonds; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Risk Management; Insurance Industry
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      Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market." Journal of Finance 70, no. 5 (October 2015): 1863–1902.
      • August 2015
      • Article

      Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices

      By: Pol Antràs and C. Fritz Foley
      This paper analyzes the financing terms that support international trade and sheds light on how these terms shape the impact of economic shocks on trade. Analysis of transaction-level data from a U.S.-based exporter of frozen and refrigerated food products, primarily... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; International Finance; Financing and Loans; Trade
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      Antràs, Pol, and C. Fritz Foley. "Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices." Journal of Political Economy 123, no. 4 (August 2015): 853–901. (Revised May 2014. Online Appendix.)
      • 2015
      • Working Paper

      Customers and Investors: A Framework for Understanding Financial Institutions

      By: Robert C. Merton and Robert T. Thakor
      Financial institutions have both investors and customers. Investors, such as those who invest in stocks and bonds or private/public-sector guarantors of institutions, expect an appropriate risk-adjusted return in exchange for the financing and risk-bearing that they... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Institutions
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      Merton, Robert C., and Robert T. Thakor. "Customers and Investors: A Framework for Understanding Financial Institutions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 21258, June 2015.
      • May 2015
      • Teaching Note

      The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity

      By: Laura Alfaro, Lakshmi Iyer and Hilary White
      After struggling through the country's longest recession since 2008, the U.K. was expected to grow faster than any other G7 nation in 2014. Analysts wondered whether the return to growth was because, or in spite of, Prime Minister David Cameron's controversial £113... View Details
      Keywords: United Kingdom; Austerity; Fiscal Deficits; Fiscal Policy; Keynesian Multiplier; Government; Government Policy; Recessions; Depression; Inequality; Government Intervention In The Markets; Stagnation; Public Finance; Economics; Macroeconomics; Government Administration; Business and Government Relations; Economic Growth; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Public Sector; Economy; Financial Crisis; Taxation; Government and Politics; United Kingdom
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      Alfaro, Laura, Lakshmi Iyer, and Hilary White. "The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 715-055, May 2015.
      • April 2015
      • Article

      Incentivizing Calculated Risk-Taking: Evidence from an Experiment with Commercial Bank Loan Officers

      By: Shawn Cole, Martin Kanz and Leora Klapper
      This paper uses a series of experiments with commercial bank loan officers to test the effect of performance incentives on risk assessment and lending decisions. We first show that while high-powered incentives lead to greater screening effort and more profitable... View Details
      Keywords: Banking; Management Processes; Credit Products; Experimental Economics; Risk Management; Motivation and Incentives; Management Practices and Processes; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry
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      Cole, Shawn, Martin Kanz, and Leora Klapper. "Incentivizing Calculated Risk-Taking: Evidence from an Experiment with Commercial Bank Loan Officers." Journal of Finance 70, no. 2 (April 2015): 537–575.
      • February 2015 (Revised December 2016)
      • Case

      Poseidon Carlsbad: Desalination and the San Diego County Water Authority

      By: John Macomber
      Extreme drought conditions in California have significant impacts on the ability of the San Diego County Water Authority to provide adequate water for current users. Water shortfalls also could curtail the economic development of one of the fastest growing regions in... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Management; Partners and Partnerships; Resource Allocation; Public Sector; Private Sector; Environmental Sustainability; Policy; Infrastructure; Green Technology Industry; Utilities Industry; California
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      Macomber, John. "Poseidon Carlsbad: Desalination and the San Diego County Water Authority." Harvard Business School Case 215-057, February 2015. (Revised December 2016.)
      • December 2014 (Revised May 2019)
      • Case

      Bhutan: Governing for Happiness

      By: Sophus A. Reinert, Thomas Humphrey and Benjamin Safran
      Unique among the world’s countries, the Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan had abandoned the traditional policy goal of increasing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in favor of pursuing Gross National Happiness (GNH). Famously, Bhutan ranked highly on lists of the happiest... View Details
      Keywords: Happiness; Economic Growth; Governance; Cost vs Benefits; Bhutan
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      Reinert, Sophus A., Thomas Humphrey, and Benjamin Safran. "Bhutan: Governing for Happiness." Harvard Business School Case 715-024, December 2014. (Revised May 2019.)
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