Risk and Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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August 2019
Case

The United States and Russia: Gas Rivals in Europe?

By: Rawi Abdelal, Galit Goldstein and Paul Apostolicas

Though the shale revolution transformed the U.S. into the largest producer of petroleum products, it was unclear how much success American exporters would find selling liquefied natural gas on the European energy market. Gazprom, the state-controlled Russian energy... View Details

2023
Working Paper

The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking

By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato

Using confidential supervisory risk ratings, we document that banks increase risk after they go public compared to a control group of banks that filed to go public but withdrew their filings for plausibly exogenous reasons. The increase in risk increases short-term... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Banks and Banking; Going Public; Performance; Stocks

2014
Book

Los Buenos Tiempos Son Éstos: Los efectos de la incursión de la banca extranjera en México después de un siglo de crisis bancarias [These Are the Good Old Days: Foreign Entry and the Mexican Banking System]

By: Stephen Haber and Aldo Musacchio

This book is the Spanish edition of our award winning paper "These Are the Good Old Days: Foreign Entry and the Mexican Banking System." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18713, January 2013. The book examines the effects of foreign bank entry into Mexico. Foreign banks... View Details

Keywords: Banks And Banking; Mexico; Commercial Banking; Foreign Direct Investment; Competition; Financial Markets; Banking Industry; Mexico

04 Feb 2021
Research & Ideas

Inside CEOs' Pandemic Worries: Uncertainty, Employees, and Kids

and their ability to pay for each of our projects to assess the situation.” Uncertainty about “what the runway of cash should be and how long to plan for” compounded CEOs'... View Details

Keywords: by Gamze D. Yucaoglu, Robin Abrahams, and Boris Groysberg

November 2018
Case

Attijariwafa Bank: Egypt Expansion

By: Victoria Ivashina and Alpana Thapar

This case follows Attijariwafa Bank, a leading Morocco-based commercial bank, giving insight into its risk management practices and its international expansion over time. In particular, the case focuses on its planned acquisition of Barclays Bank Egypt in 2017. At this... View Details

Keywords: Commercial Banking; Risk Management; Small And Medium Enterprises; Acquisitions; International Expansion; Emerging Markets; Africa; SMEs

December 2012 (Revised May 2012)
Supplement

Konys, Inc. (CW)

By: Deishin Lee and Tunay Tunca

Keywords: Supply Chain; Option Contract; Uncertainty; Sourcing; Supplier Relationship; Risk and Uncertainty; Contracts; Supply Chain Management

December 2006 (Revised March 2010)
Case

Bill Gates and Steve Jobs

By: Anthony Mayo and Mark Benson

Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, founders of Microsoft and Apple respectively, have revolutionized the relationship between the individual and computer technology. Once the exclusive domain of academia and research facilities, computers can now be found in every area of... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Business History; Technological Innovation; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Technology Industry

April 2002
Article

Limited Arbitrage in Mergers and Acquisitions

By: Malcolm Baker and Serkan Savasoglu

A diversified portfolio of risk arbitrage positions produces an abnormal return of 0.6-0.9% per month over the period from 1981 to 1996. We trace these profits to practical limits on risk arbitrage. In our model of risk arbitrage, arbitrageurs' risk-bearing capacity... View Details

Keywords: Arbitrage; Market Efficiency; Mergers and Acquisitions; Profit; Risk and Uncertainty; Corporate Strategy; Capital; Banking Industry

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November 2011 (Revised December 2013)
Case

The Long and Short of Apollo Group and the University of Phoenix (A)

By: Luis M. Viceira, Joel Heilprin, Andrew S. Holmes and Damian M. Zajac

A hedge fund is deciding whether to liquidate its position in Apollo Group, a for-profit education firm, in light of significant political and macro-economic uncertainty facing the industry. As part of the investment analysis a complete discounted cash flow analysis... View Details

Keywords: Higher Education; Internet and the Web; Education Industry; Technology Industry

July 2014 (Revised October 2014)
Case

McKinsey & Co. - Protecting its Reputation (A)

By: Jay Lorsch and Emily McTague

On Tuesday March 15, 2011, all 1,200 global Partners of McKinsey & Co. gathered at the Gaylord National Hotel & Convention Center near Washington, DC for their annual Partners' conference. The atmosphere was tense as Partners, in addition to their normal agenda,... View Details

Keywords: Board; McKinsey; Consulting Firms; Risk; Risk Assessment; Partnerships; Insider Trading; Confidentiality; Personal Investing; Reputation; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Governance; Management Practices and Processes; Risk Management; Consulting Industry; United States; California

March 1995
Article

Tests of Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market

By: C. Engel, J. Frankel, Kenneth A. Froot and T. Rodrigues

Keywords: Risk Aversion; Risk; International Investing; CAPM; Capital Asset Pricing; International Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Foreign Direct Investment; Behavioral Finance; United States

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October 2014 (Revised June 2015)
Case

Quiet Logistics (A)

By: Robert Simons and Natalie Kindred

This two-part case focuses on how to identify and manage strategic uncertainties in an innovative, entrepreneurial start-up company. In the (A) case, students learn about Quiet Logistics, an e-commerce fulfillment company working with high-end apparel retailers such as... View Details

December 2010
Article

Social Preferences and Strategic Uncertainty: An Experiment on Markets and Contracts

This paper reports a three-phase experiment on a stylized labor market. In the first two phases, agents face simple games, which we use to estimate subjects' social and reciprocity concerns. In the last phase, four principals compete by offering agents a contract from... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Markets; Contracts; Decisions; Distribution; Labor; Game Theory

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December 2006 (Revised October 2016)
Case

eClinicalWorks: The Paths to Growth

By: Robert F. Higgins and Mark Rennella

In January 2006, eClinicalWorks (eCW) had an acquisition opportunity that could fundamentally change the way they had done business since the inception of the company in 1999. eClinicalWorks was a privately run business in the healthcare information technology field... View Details

Keywords: Young Companies; Strategic Revelation; Strategy And Execution; Strategy Development; Strategy And Leadership; Financing Strategy; Financing Risk; Financing; Expansion; Business Growth and Maturation; Organizational Culture; Financing and Loans; Customer Focus and Relationships; Acquisition; Growth and Development Strategy; Information Technology Industry; Health Industry; Massachusetts

1 Aug 2010
Conference Presentation

Firm Performance, Top Management and Minority Hiring: African‐American Coaches in the NFL, 1970‐2007

By: Andrew Hill and David Thomas

Studies of minority hiring have found that low-status firms are more likely to hire minority candidates. However, most work has examined hiring for entry and mid-level positions, not senior management, which differs in the level of 1) uncertainty regarding the optimal... View Details

Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Management Teams; Recruitment; Relationships; Risk and Uncertainty; Ethnicity; Sports Industry; Africa; United States

July 2014 (Revised October 2014)
Supplement

McKinsey & Co. - Protecting its Reputation (B)

By: Jay Lorsch and Emily McTague

On Tuesday March 15, 2011, all 1,200 global Partners of McKinsey & Co. gathered at the Gaylord National Hotel & Convention Center near Washington, DC for their annual Partners' conference. The atmosphere was tense as Partners, in addition to their normal agenda,... View Details

Keywords: Board; McKinsey; CONSULTING Firms; Risk; Risk Assessment; Partnerships; Insider Trading; Confidentiality; Personal Investing; Reputation; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Governance; Management Practices and Processes; Risk Management; Construction Industry; United States; California

November 2012 (Revised June 2013)
Case

The Facebook IPO Litigation

By: Lena G. Goldberg and Annelena Loeb

Despite its success in the social-networking space, Facebook Inc.'s May 2012 IPO was largely considered a failure. Facebook faced multiple lawsuits and its share price had dropped significantly. Adversaries contended that Facebook had misled investors and violated... View Details

Keywords: Social Networking; IPO; Litigation Risk; Initial Public Offering; Ethics; Lawsuits and Litigation; Failure; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; United States

October 2018 (Revised August 2019)
Case

Everybody Knows: Russia and the Election

By: Rawi Abdelal, Rafael Di Tella and Galit Goldstein

Following a contentious presidential race, Donald Trump’s 2016 election destabilized America’s status quo. Academics, journalists, politicians and the public at large examined why Trump had won. Many Americans, inside and outside the government, asserted that a... View Details

Keywords: Strategic Industry; Strategic Alliances (Business); Business And Government; Business And Public Policy; Business And Society; Media Businesses; Media Content; Media Slant; Media Regulation; Internet Of Everything; Government Policy; Politics; Political Campaigns; Political Strategy; Political Turmoil; Government; Government Regulation; Security; International Business; International Relations; National Security; Political Elections; News; Media; Internet and the Web; Rights; Problems and Challenges; Globalization; Business and Community Relations; Business and Government Relations; Government Legislation; Risk and Uncertainty; Cognition and Thinking; Conflict and Resolution; Identity; Civil Society or Community; Culture; Public Opinion; Social Issues; War; Social Media; Public Administration Industry; United States; Russia

Fall 2018
Article

The Value of Fit Information in Online Retail: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment

By: Santiago Gallino and Antonio Moreno

Online channels generate frictions when selling products with nondigital attributes, such as apparel. Customers may be reluctant to purchase products they have not been able to try on, and those customers who do purchase may return products when they do not fit as... View Details

Keywords: Supply Chain Information; Fit Uncertainty; Online Retail; Randomized Field Experiment; Virtual Fitting Room; Digital Retail; Customization and Personalization; Internet and the Web; Value; Performance Improvement; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry

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August 2017
Article

Relationship Between Labor and Delivery Unit Management Practices and Maternal Outcomes

By: Avery C. Plough, Grace Galwin, Zhonghe Li, Stuart R. Lipsitz, Shehnaz Alidina, Natalie J. Henrich, Lisa R. Hirschhorn, William R. Berry, Atul A. Gawande, Doris Peter, Rory McDonald, Donna L. Caldwell, Janet H. Muri, Debra Bingham, Aaron B. Caughey, Eugene R. Declercq and Neel T. Shah

OBJECTIVE: To define, measure, and characterize key competencies of managing labor and delivery units in the United States and assess the associations between unit management and maternal outcomes. METHODS: We developed and administered a management measurement... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Management Practices and Processes; Performance Evaluation; Outcome or Result; United States

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