Risk and Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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July 2018
Article

Personality Traits of Entrepreneurs: A Review of Recent Literature

By: Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr and Tina Xu

We review the extensive literature since 2000 on the personality traits of entrepreneurs. We first consider baseline personality traits like the Big-5 model, self-efficacy and innovativeness, locus of control, and the need for achievement. We then consider risk... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurs; Venturing; Personality Traits; Characteristics; Big-5; Risk Attitudes; Goals; Skills; Entrepreneurship; Personal Characteristics; Goals and Objectives; Competency and Skills; Success; Demographics; Research

August 2021 (Revised May 2022)
Background Note

Oil: History, Present and Future

By: Jurgen Weiss

This background note is intended to provide context for a discussion of the strategies for big integrated oil companies in light of both oil’s current role in the global energy system and the uncertainty about changes going forward. View Details

Keywords: Oil; Energy Markets; Oil Prices; Oil Companies; Decarbonization; Non-Renewable Energy; Environmental Sustainability; Strategy; Globalized Markets and Industries

April 2011 (Revised September 2011)
Case

Willy Jacobsohn and Beiersdorf: Managing Expropriation and Anti-Semitism

By: Geoffrey G. Jones and Christina Lubinski

This case examines the management of home and host country risk by Beiersdorf during the interwar years. It can be used both in business history courses and more generally to teach political risk management by multinational corporations. Beiersdorf, a German personal... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; War; Business History; Multinational Firms and Management; Global Strategy; Ownership; Government and Politics; Business and Government Relations; Consumer Products Industry; Germany

28 Feb 2014
News

Doing Business in Afghanistan

Keywords: terrorism; risk; entrepreneurship; Telecommunications; Telecommunications; Information

August 2019
Case

The United States and Russia: Gas Rivals in Europe?

By: Rawi Abdelal, Galit Goldstein and Paul Apostolicas

Though the shale revolution transformed the U.S. into the largest producer of petroleum products, it was unclear how much success American exporters would find selling liquefied natural gas on the European energy market. Gazprom, the state-controlled Russian energy... View Details

Uncertainty, Trust and Cybersecurity

Human factors like trust are a major question of interest in cybersecurity. Uma Karmarkar's talk at the 2017 Enigma conference explores how the neuroscience and psychology of uncertainty can offer insights into how people handle security issues in digital spaces. View Details

2014
Book

Los Buenos Tiempos Son Éstos: Los efectos de la incursión de la banca extranjera en México después de un siglo de crisis bancarias [These Are the Good Old Days: Foreign Entry and the Mexican Banking System]

By: Stephen Haber and Aldo Musacchio

This book is the Spanish edition of our award winning paper "These Are the Good Old Days: Foreign Entry and the Mexican Banking System." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18713, January 2013. The book examines the effects of foreign bank entry into Mexico. Foreign banks... View Details

Keywords: Banks And Banking; Mexico; Commercial Banking; Foreign Direct Investment; Competition; Financial Markets; Banking Industry; Mexico

October 2018 (Revised August 2019)
Case

Everybody Knows: Russia and the Election

By: Rawi Abdelal, Rafael Di Tella and Galit Goldstein

Following a contentious presidential race, Donald Trump’s 2016 election destabilized America’s status quo. Academics, journalists, politicians and the public at large examined why Trump had won. Many Americans, inside and outside the government, asserted that a... View Details

Keywords: Strategic Industry; Strategic Alliances (Business); Business And Government; Business And Public Policy; Business And Society; Media Businesses; Media Content; Media Slant; Media Regulation; Internet Of Everything; Government Policy; Politics; Political Campaigns; Political Strategy; Political Turmoil; Government; Government Regulation; Security; International Business; International Relations; National Security; Political Elections; News; Media; Internet and the Web; Rights; Problems and Challenges; Globalization; Business and Community Relations; Business and Government Relations; Government Legislation; Risk and Uncertainty; Cognition and Thinking; Conflict and Resolution; Identity; Civil Society or Community; Culture; Public Opinion; Social Issues; War; Social Media; Public Administration Industry; United States; Russia

04 Feb 2021
Research & Ideas

Inside CEOs' Pandemic Worries: Uncertainty, Employees, and Kids

and their ability to pay for each of our projects to assess the situation.” Uncertainty about “what the runway of cash should be and how long to plan for” compounded CEOs'... View Details

Keywords: by Gamze D. Yucaoglu, Robin Abrahams, and Boris Groysberg

June 2014 (Revised March 2016)
Teaching Note

Starbucks Coffee Company: Transformation and Renewal

By: Nancy F. Koehn

November 2020 (Revised May 2021)
Technical Note

Tales of Life-changing Innovations: Reducing Breast Cancer Risks | Note on the Development of Tamoxifen (through 1999)

By: Amar Bhidé, Srikant M. Datar and Katherine Stebbins

2023
Working Paper

The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking

By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato

Using confidential supervisory risk ratings, we document that banks increase risk after they go public compared to a control group of banks that filed to go public but withdrew their filings for plausibly exogenous reasons. The increase in risk increases short-term... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Banks and Banking; Going Public; Performance; Stocks

August 2006
Article

Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default

By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann

In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation... View Details

Keywords: Credit Risk; Bootstrap; Mathematical Methods; Credit; Risk Management

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December 2006 (Revised March 2010)
Case

Bill Gates and Steve Jobs

By: Anthony Mayo and Mark Benson

Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, founders of Microsoft and Apple respectively, have revolutionized the relationship between the individual and computer technology. Once the exclusive domain of academia and research facilities, computers can now be found in every area of... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Business History; Technological Innovation; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Technology Industry

Research Summary

Climate Adaptation

By: John D. Macomber

It's clear that challenges like wildfires, river flooding, extreme heat, and storm surge are increasing. How will homeowners, businesses, instituations, goverments, and all of society decide what and whom to protect and what and whom to not protect? What is the timing?... View Details

Keywords: Climate Change; Climate Risk; Hurricanes; Fire Protection; Water Management; Insurance And Reinsurance

July 2014 (Revised October 2014)
Supplement

McKinsey & Co. - Protecting its Reputation (B)

By: Jay Lorsch and Emily McTague

On Tuesday March 15, 2011, all 1,200 global Partners of McKinsey & Co. gathered at the Gaylord National Hotel & Convention Center near Washington, DC for their annual Partners' conference. The atmosphere was tense as Partners, in addition to their normal agenda,... View Details

Keywords: Board; McKinsey; CONSULTING Firms; Risk; Risk Assessment; Partnerships; Insider Trading; Confidentiality; Personal Investing; Reputation; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Governance; Management Practices and Processes; Risk Management; Construction Industry; United States; California

December 2010
Article

Social Preferences and Strategic Uncertainty: An Experiment on Markets and Contracts

This paper reports a three-phase experiment on a stylized labor market. In the first two phases, agents face simple games, which we use to estimate subjects' social and reciprocity concerns. In the last phase, four principals compete by offering agents a contract from... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Markets; Contracts; Decisions; Distribution; Labor; Game Theory

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November 2011 (Revised December 2013)
Case

The Long and Short of Apollo Group and the University of Phoenix (A)

By: Luis M. Viceira, Joel Heilprin, Andrew S. Holmes and Damian M. Zajac

A hedge fund is deciding whether to liquidate its position in Apollo Group, a for-profit education firm, in light of significant political and macro-economic uncertainty facing the industry. As part of the investment analysis a complete discounted cash flow analysis... View Details

Keywords: Higher Education; Internet and the Web; Education Industry; Technology Industry

April 2002
Article

Limited Arbitrage in Mergers and Acquisitions

By: Malcolm Baker and Serkan Savasoglu

A diversified portfolio of risk arbitrage positions produces an abnormal return of 0.6-0.9% per month over the period from 1981 to 1996. We trace these profits to practical limits on risk arbitrage. In our model of risk arbitrage, arbitrageurs' risk-bearing capacity... View Details

Keywords: Arbitrage; Market Efficiency; Mergers and Acquisitions; Profit; Risk and Uncertainty; Corporate Strategy; Capital; Banking Industry

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July 2014 (Revised October 2014)
Case

McKinsey & Co. - Protecting its Reputation (A)

By: Jay Lorsch and Emily McTague

On Tuesday March 15, 2011, all 1,200 global Partners of McKinsey & Co. gathered at the Gaylord National Hotel & Convention Center near Washington, DC for their annual Partners' conference. The atmosphere was tense as Partners, in addition to their normal agenda,... View Details

Keywords: Board; McKinsey; Consulting Firms; Risk; Risk Assessment; Partnerships; Insider Trading; Confidentiality; Personal Investing; Reputation; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Governance; Management Practices and Processes; Risk Management; Consulting Industry; United States; California

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