Risk And Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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December 2006 (Revised March 2010)
Case

Bill Gates and Steve Jobs

By: Anthony Mayo and Mark Benson

Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, founders of Microsoft and Apple respectively, have revolutionized the relationship between the individual and computer technology. Once the exclusive domain of academia and research facilities, computers can now be found in every area of... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Business History; Technological Innovation; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Technology Industry

2023
Working Paper

The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking

By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato

Using confidential supervisory risk ratings, we document that banks increase risk after they go public compared to a control group of banks that filed to go public but withdrew their filings for plausibly exogenous reasons. The increase in risk increases short-term... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Banks and Banking; Going Public; Performance; Stocks

Uncertainty, Trust and Cybersecurity

Human factors like trust are a major question of interest in cybersecurity. Uma Karmarkar's talk at the 2017 Enigma conference explores how the neuroscience and psychology of uncertainty can offer insights into how people handle security issues in digital spaces. View Details

August 2006
Article

Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default

By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann

In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation... View Details

Keywords: Credit Risk; Bootstrap; Mathematical Methods; Credit; Risk Management

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October 2014 (Revised June 2015)
Case

Quiet Logistics (A)

By: Robert Simons and Natalie Kindred

This two-part case focuses on how to identify and manage strategic uncertainties in an innovative, entrepreneurial start-up company. In the (A) case, students learn about Quiet Logistics, an e-commerce fulfillment company working with high-end apparel retailers such as... View Details

July 2018
Article

Personality Traits of Entrepreneurs: A Review of Recent Literature

By: Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr and Tina Xu

We review the extensive literature since 2000 on the personality traits of entrepreneurs. We first consider baseline personality traits like the Big-5 model, self-efficacy and innovativeness, locus of control, and the need for achievement. We then consider risk... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurs; Venturing; Personality Traits; Characteristics; Big-5; Risk Attitudes; Goals; Skills; Entrepreneurship; Personal Characteristics; Goals and Objectives; Competency and Skills; Success; Demographics; Research

October 2018 (Revised August 2019)
Case

Everybody Knows: Russia and the Election

By: Rawi Abdelal, Rafael Di Tella and Galit Goldstein

Following a contentious presidential race, Donald Trump’s 2016 election destabilized America’s status quo. Academics, journalists, politicians and the public at large examined why Trump had won. Many Americans, inside and outside the government, asserted that a... View Details

Keywords: Strategic Industry; Strategic Alliances (Business); Business And Government; Business And Public Policy; Business And Society; Media Businesses; Media Content; Media Slant; Media Regulation; Internet Of Everything; Government Policy; Politics; Political Campaigns; Political Strategy; Political Turmoil; Government; Government Regulation; Security; International Business; International Relations; National Security; Political Elections; News; Media; Internet and the Web; Rights; Problems and Challenges; Globalization; Business and Community Relations; Business and Government Relations; Government Legislation; Risk and Uncertainty; Cognition and Thinking; Conflict and Resolution; Identity; Civil Society or Community; Culture; Public Opinion; Social Issues; War; Social Media; Public Administration Industry; United States; Russia

July 2014 (Revised October 2014)
Case

McKinsey & Co. - Protecting its Reputation (A)

By: Jay Lorsch and Emily McTague

On Tuesday March 15, 2011, all 1,200 global Partners of McKinsey & Co. gathered at the Gaylord National Hotel & Convention Center near Washington, DC for their annual Partners' conference. The atmosphere was tense as Partners, in addition to their normal agenda,... View Details

Keywords: Board; McKinsey; Consulting Firms; Risk; Risk Assessment; Partnerships; Insider Trading; Confidentiality; Personal Investing; Reputation; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Governance; Management Practices and Processes; Risk Management; Consulting Industry; United States; California

November 2011 (Revised December 2013)
Case

The Long and Short of Apollo Group and the University of Phoenix (A)

By: Luis M. Viceira, Joel Heilprin, Andrew S. Holmes and Damian M. Zajac

A hedge fund is deciding whether to liquidate its position in Apollo Group, a for-profit education firm, in light of significant political and macro-economic uncertainty facing the industry. As part of the investment analysis a complete discounted cash flow analysis... View Details

Keywords: Higher Education; Internet and the Web; Education Industry; Technology Industry

Fall 2018
Article

The Value of Fit Information in Online Retail: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment

By: Santiago Gallino and Antonio Moreno

Online channels generate frictions when selling products with nondigital attributes, such as apparel. Customers may be reluctant to purchase products they have not been able to try on, and those customers who do purchase may return products when they do not fit as... View Details

Keywords: Supply Chain Information; Fit Uncertainty; Online Retail; Randomized Field Experiment; Virtual Fitting Room; Digital Retail; Customization and Personalization; Internet and the Web; Value; Performance Improvement; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry

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November 2020 (Revised May 2021)
Technical Note

Tales of Life-changing Innovations: Reducing Breast Cancer Risks | Note on the Development of Tamoxifen (through 1999)

By: Amar Bhidé, Srikant M. Datar and Katherine Stebbins

2014
Book

Los Buenos Tiempos Son Éstos: Los efectos de la incursión de la banca extranjera en México después de un siglo de crisis bancarias [These Are the Good Old Days: Foreign Entry and the Mexican Banking System]

By: Stephen Haber and Aldo Musacchio

This book is the Spanish edition of our award winning paper "These Are the Good Old Days: Foreign Entry and the Mexican Banking System." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18713, January 2013. The book examines the effects of foreign bank entry into Mexico. Foreign banks... View Details

Keywords: Banks And Banking; Mexico; Commercial Banking; Foreign Direct Investment; Competition; Financial Markets; Banking Industry; Mexico

16 Jan 2025
Blog Post

Alumni Career Journey: Sophie Levin (MS/MBA 2022) - How Risk Can Be the Key to a Sustainable Future

describe startups tackling some of the most pressing and complex challenges of our time. Many of these companies face technical hurdles or market risks that require significant time View Details

June 2014 (Revised March 2016)
Teaching Note

Starbucks Coffee Company: Transformation and Renewal

By: Nancy F. Koehn

Research Summary

Climate Adaptation

By: John D. Macomber

It's clear that challenges like wildfires, river flooding, extreme heat, and storm surge are increasing. How will homeowners, businesses, instituations, goverments, and all of society decide what and whom to protect and what and whom to not protect? What is the timing?... View Details

Keywords: Climate Change; Climate Risk; Hurricanes; Fire Protection; Water Management; Insurance And Reinsurance

March 1995
Article

Tests of Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market

By: C. Engel, J. Frankel, Kenneth A. Froot and T. Rodrigues

Keywords: Risk Aversion; Risk; International Investing; CAPM; Capital Asset Pricing; International Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Foreign Direct Investment; Behavioral Finance; United States

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December 2010
Article

Social Preferences and Strategic Uncertainty: An Experiment on Markets and Contracts

This paper reports a three-phase experiment on a stylized labor market. In the first two phases, agents face simple games, which we use to estimate subjects' social and reciprocity concerns. In the last phase, four principals compete by offering agents a contract from... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Markets; Contracts; Decisions; Distribution; Labor; Game Theory

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04 Feb 2021
Research & Ideas

Inside CEOs' Pandemic Worries: Uncertainty, Employees, and Kids

and their ability to pay for each of our projects to assess the situation.” Uncertainty about “what the runway of cash should be and how long to plan for” compounded CEOs'... View Details

Keywords: by Gamze D. Yucaoglu, Robin Abrahams, and Boris Groysberg

August 2017
Article

Relationship Between Labor and Delivery Unit Management Practices and Maternal Outcomes

By: Avery C. Plough, Grace Galwin, Zhonghe Li, Stuart R. Lipsitz, Shehnaz Alidina, Natalie J. Henrich, Lisa R. Hirschhorn, William R. Berry, Atul A. Gawande, Doris Peter, Rory McDonald, Donna L. Caldwell, Janet H. Muri, Debra Bingham, Aaron B. Caughey, Eugene R. Declercq and Neel T. Shah

OBJECTIVE: To define, measure, and characterize key competencies of managing labor and delivery units in the United States and assess the associations between unit management and maternal outcomes. METHODS: We developed and administered a management measurement... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Management Practices and Processes; Performance Evaluation; Outcome or Result; United States

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April 2002
Article

Limited Arbitrage in Mergers and Acquisitions

By: Malcolm Baker and Serkan Savasoglu

A diversified portfolio of risk arbitrage positions produces an abnormal return of 0.6-0.9% per month over the period from 1981 to 1996. We trace these profits to practical limits on risk arbitrage. In our model of risk arbitrage, arbitrageurs' risk-bearing capacity... View Details

Keywords: Arbitrage; Market Efficiency; Mergers and Acquisitions; Profit; Risk and Uncertainty; Corporate Strategy; Capital; Banking Industry

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