Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(1,900)
- Faculty Publications (171)
- January 2019
- Article
Bubbles for Fama
By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction
- Article
Populism and the Return of the 'Paranoid Style': Some Evidence and a Simple Model of Demand for Incompetence as Insurance against Elite Betrayal
By: Rafael Di Tella and Julio J. Rotemberg
We present a simple model of populism as the rejection of “disloyal” leaders. We show that adding the assumption that people are worse off when they experience low income as a result of leader betrayal (than when it is the result of bad luck) to a simple voter choice... View Details
- November–December 2018
- Article
Online Network Revenue Management Using Thompson Sampling
By: Kris J. Ferreira, David Simchi-Levi and He Wang
We consider a network revenue management problem where an online retailer aims to maximize revenue from multiple products with limited inventory constraints. As common in practice, the retailer does not know the consumer's purchase probability at each price and must... View Details
- November 2018
- Case
Sportradar (A): From Data to Storytelling
By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Karen Elterman and Oliver Gassmann
In 2013, the Swiss sports data company Sportradar debated whether to expand from its core business of data provision to bookmakers into sports media products. Sports data was becoming a commodity, and in the future, sports leagues might reduce their dependence on... View Details
Keywords: Sports Data; Data; Sport; Sportradar; Football; Soccer; Gambling; Betting; Betting Markets; Statistics; Odds; Live Data; Bookmakers; Betradar; Visualization; Integrity; Monitoring; Gaming; Streaming; 2013; St.Gallen; Algorithm; Mathematical Modeling; Carsten Koerl; Betandwin; Bwin; Wagering; Probability; Sports; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Transition; Strategy; Media; Sports Industry; Technology Industry; Information Technology Industry; Media and Broadcasting Industry; Europe; Switzerland; Asia; Austria; Germany; England
- September 2018 (Revised December 2019)
- Case
Zebra Medical Vision
By: Shane Greenstein and Sarah Gulick
An Israeli startup founded in 2014, Zebra Medical Vision developed algorithms that produced diagnoses from X-rays, mammograms, and CT-scans. The algorithms used deep learning and digitized radiology scans to create software that could assist doctors in making... View Details
Keywords: Radiology; Machine Learning; X-ray; CT Scan; Medical Technology; Probability; FDA 510(k); Diagnosis; Business Startups; Health Care and Treatment; Information Technology; Applications and Software; Competitive Strategy; Product Development; Commercialization; Decision Choices and Conditions; Health Industry; Medical Devices and Supplies Industry; Technology Industry; Israel
- 2018
- Working Paper
Opportunistic Returns and Dynamic Pricing: Empirical Evidence from Online Retailing in Emerging Markets
By: Chaithanya Bandi, Antonio Moreno, Donald Ngwe and Zhiji Xu
We investigate how dynamic pricing can lead to more product returns in the online retail industry. Using detailed sales data of more than two million transactions from the Indian online retail market, where price promotions are very common, we document two types of... View Details
- August 2018
- Case
BlackBuck (A)
By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai
The case presents the challenges of scaling an asset-heavy company (that relies on its operations). It highlights how decisions on the early team impact a company’s ability to scale, linkage between growth and cash flows, as well the organizational impact of high... View Details
- May 28, 2018
- Article
How Companies Can Identify Racial and Gender Bias in Their Customer Service
By: Alexandra C. Feldberg and Tami Kim
Research shows that minority customers — blacks and Asians — regularly receive worse customer service than whites in ways that are not immediately obvious to onlookers (or even managers). These results prompt a couple of questions for executives and managers. One, does... View Details
- February 2018
- Article
Auctions versus Posted Prices in Online Markets
By: Liran Einav, Chiara Farronato, Jonathan Levin and Neel Sundaresan
Auctions were very popular in the early days of internet commerce, but today online sellers mostly use posted prices. We model the choice between auctions and posted prices as a trade-off between competitive price discovery and convenience. Evidence from eBay fits the... View Details
- 2020
- Working Paper
The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity
By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu
We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001–2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms'... View Details
- Article
A Field Experiment on Search Costs and the Formation of Scientific Collaborations
By: Kevin Boudreau, Tom Brady, Ina Ganguli, Patrick Gaule, Eva C. Guinan, Anthony Hollenberg and Karim R. Lakhani
We present the results of a field experiment conducted at Harvard Medical School to understand the extent to which search costs affect matching among scientific collaborators. We generated exogenous variation in search costs for pairs of potential collaborators by... View Details
- 2017
- Working Paper
Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments
By: Daniel J. Benjamin, Don A. Moore and Matthew Rabin
This paper describes results of a pair of incentivized experiments on biases in judgments about random samples. Consistent with the Law of Small Numbers (LSN), participants exaggerated the likelihood that short sequences and random subsets of coin flips would be... View Details
- 2017
- Chapter
High Stakes Negotiation: Indian Gaming and Tribal/State Compacts
By: Gavin Clarkson and James K. Sebenius
Although Indian tribes and the surrounding states were often bitter enemies throughout much of the history of the United States, recently tribes and states have been able to work cooperatively in a number of areas. In some instances, Congress has mandated such... View Details
- Article
Your Sales Training Is Probably Lackluster. Here's How to Fix It
By: Frank V. Cespedes and Yuchun Lee
U.S. companies spend over $70 billion annually on training and an average of $1,459 per salesperson—almost 20% more than they spend on workers in all other functions. Yet, when it comes to equipping sales teams with relevant knowledge and skills, the ROI of sales... View Details
- 2017
- Working Paper
Homophily in Entrepreneurial Team Formation
By: Paul A. Gompers, Kevin Huang and Sophie Q. Wang
We study the role of homophily in group formation. Using a unique dataset of MBA students, we observe homophily in ethnicity and gender increases the probability of forming teams by 25%. Homophily in education and past working experience increases the probability of... View Details
- Article
Third-Party Punishment as a Costly Signal of High Continuation Probabilities in Repeated Games
By: Jillian J. Jordan and David G. Rand
Why do individuals pay costs to punish selfish behavior, even as third-party observers? A large body of research suggests that reputation plays an important role in motivating such third-party punishment (TPP). Here we focus on a recently proposed reputation-based... View Details
- February 2017
- Background Note
Decision Analysis
By: George Wu and Kathleen McGinn
Describes decision analysis, a systematic approach for analyzing decision problems. A running example illustrates problem structuring (decision trees), probability assessment, endpoint evaluation, “folding back the tree” as a method of analysis, and sensitivity... View Details
- February 2017
- Article
Rethinking Sales Compensation
Compensation is probably the most discussed aspect of sales and the single biggest portion of the more than $900 billion that U.S. companies alone spend annually on sales efforts. But research indicates that less than 10% of companies believe that their sales incentive... View Details
- September 2016 (Revised October 2018)
- Case
LabCDMX: Experiment 50
By: Mitchell Weiss and Maria Fernanda Miguel
There were probably 30,000 public buses, minibuses, and vans in Mexico City. Though, in 2015, no one knew for certain since no comprehensive schedule existed. This was why el Laboratorio para la Ciudad (or LabCDMX) had spawned an effort to generate a map of the... View Details
- 2016
- Article
Organizational Decision-Making and Information: Angel Investments by Venture Capital Partners
By: Andy Wu
We study information aggregation in organizational decision-making for the financing of entrepreneurial ventures. We introduce a formal model of voting where agents face costly tacit information to improve their decision quality. Equilibrium outcomes suggest a... View Details