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2017
Report

Dismissed by Degrees: How Degree Inflation Is Undermining U.S. Competitiveness and Hurting America's Middle Class

By: Joseph B. Fuller and Manjari Raman

Article

Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the... View Details

Keywords: TIPS; Breakeven Inflation; Return Predictability; Bond Risk Premia; Risk Management; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Inflation and Deflation; United Kingdom; United States

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May 2013
Supplement

Kinyuseisaku: Monetary Policy in Japan (C)

By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White

Assuming office in December 2012, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was determined to revive Japan's stagnating economy through an ambitious plan known as 'Abenomics.' Under the guidance of the newly appointed governor of the central bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, the Bank of Japan... View Details

Keywords: Japan; Inflation Targeting; Inflation; Abenomics; Monetary Policy; Stimulus; Quantitative Easing; Government Bonds; Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Money; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Japan

2019
Article

More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors

By: Alberto Cavallo

I study how online competition, with its shrinking margins, algorithmic pricing technologies, and the transparency of the web, can change the pricing behavior of large retailers in the U.S. and affect aggregate inflation dynamics. In particular, I show that in the past... View Details

Keywords: Amazon; Online Prices; Inflation; Uniform Pricing; Price Stickiness; Monetary Economics; Economics; Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; United States

2023
Working Paper

Who Invests in Crypto? Wealth, Financial Constraints, and Risk Attitudes

By: Darren Aiello, Scott R. Baker, Tetyana Balyuk, Marco Di Maggio, Mark J. Johnson and Jason Kotter

We provide a first look into the drivers of household cryptocurrency investing. Analyzing consumer transaction data for millions of U.S. households, we find that, except for high income early adopters, cryptocurrency investors resemble the general population. These... View Details

Keywords: Consumer Finance; Cryptocurrency; Fintech; Inflation; Portfolio Choice; Stimulus; Consumer Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment

August 2020
Article

Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

By: John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

Our new model of consumption-based habit generates time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks from loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation,... View Details

Keywords: Consumption-based Habit Formation; Consumption Euler Equation; Time-varying Risk Premia; Inflation Dynamics; Bond-stock Correlation; Risk and Uncertainty; Bonds; Macroeconomics

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2013
Working Paper

Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details

Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States

January 2004 (Revised August 2004)
Supplement

Innovation at the Treasury: Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (B)

By: Kenneth A. Froot, Peter A. Hecht and Christopher Edward James Payton

In 1997, the U.S. Treasury was deciding whether to proceed with a proposal to issue inflation-indexed bonds. This case explores the challenges facing innovation in the financial markets as the Treasury tries to determine whether to introduce Treasury... View Details

Keywords: Inflation; Innovation; Federal Government; Securities; Financial Instruments; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Markets; Government and Politics; Financial Institutions; Innovation and Invention; United States

January 2004 (Revised June 2004)
Case

Innovation at the Treasury: Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities (A)

By: Kenneth A. Froot, Peter A. Hecht and Christopher Edward James Payton

In 1997, the U.S. Treasury was deciding whether to proceed with a proposal to issue inflation-indexed bonds. This case explores the challenges facing innovation in the financial markets as the Treasury tries to determine whether to introduce Treasury... View Details

Keywords: Inflation; Innovation; Federal Government; Securities; Debt Securities; Risk Management; Bonds; Investment Portfolio; Capital Markets; Inflation and Deflation; Government and Politics; Innovation and Invention; United States

Article

L'autodiscipline en guise de régulation. La stratégie patronale à l'heure de la surchauffe économique en Suisse autour de 1960

By: Sabine Pitteloud

Die Strategie der Unternehmensverbände zur Bekämpfung der konjunkturellen «Überhitzung» um 1960 Sabine Pitteloud interessiert sich für den Versuch, privatwirtschaftliche Antworten auf die Teuerung der 1960er-Jahre zu finden. Arbeitgeber und Gewerkschaften waren sich... View Details

Keywords: Inflation; Regulation; Business ＆ Government Relations; Inflation and Deflation; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Business and Government Relations; Labor Unions; Switzerland

March 2022 (Revised May 2022)
Case

Reclaiming the Land of Purple: Purpl’s Mission to Unlock Finance in Lebanon

By: Lauren Cohen and Grace Headinger

Karl Naim, Co-Founder and CEO of Purpl, embarked on a venture to lower remittance costs for his native Lebanon. Since October 2019, the Lebanese economy had entered a free fall as its banking sector collapsed and large swathes of its population were plunged into... View Details

Keywords: Business Startup; Fintech; Inflation; Deflation; Cross-border Frictions; Remittances; Business Startups; Diasporas; Financial Crisis; Money; Entrepreneurship; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Poverty; Financial Institutions; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; Lebanon

June 2013 (Revised June 2013)
Teaching Note

Brazil's Enigma: Sustaining Long-Term Growth & Currency Wars

By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White

Over the past decade, Brazil's future as a leading world economic power appeared certain. An expanding middle class and commodity boom had fueled economic growth, with GDP growth hitting a peak of 7.5% in 2010. However, the high cost of conducting business in Brazil,... View Details

May 2022
Case

Rawbank's Illico Cash: Can 'Fast Money' Overcome Cash Dependency in the DRC?

By: Lauren Cohen and Grace Headinger

Thomas de Dreux-Brézé, the Head of Strategy and Project Management at Rawbank Congo in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), was perplexed as he reviewed annual adoption rates for the bank’s launch of Illico Cash 2.0. As the bank’s mobile money app, Illico Cash... View Details

October 2012 (Revised April 2017)
Case

Brazil's Enigma: Sustaining Long-Term Growth

By: Laura Alfaro, Hilary White and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason

Over the past decade, Brazil's future as a leading world economic power appeared certain. An expanding middle class and commodity boom had fueled economic growth, with GDP growth hitting a peak of 7.5% in 2010. However, the high cost of conducting business in Brazil,... View Details

Keywords: Capital Controls; Inflation; Exchange Rates; Stimulus; Competitiveness; Productivity Growth; Foreign Investment; Infrastructure; Inflation and Deflation; Currency Exchange Rate; Brazil

March 2013
Case

Currency Wars

By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White

In February 2013, the G-20 finance ministers met in Moscow, Russia to discuss the rising anxieties over a potential international currency war. It was speculated that certain countries were purposely devaluing their currencies in order to improve their competitiveness... View Details

Keywords: Currency; Competitiveness; Trade Policy; Devaluation; Exchange Rate; Monetary Policy; Quantitative Easing; Inflation Targeting; Capital Flows; Central Banking; Currency Exchange Rate; Competitive Strategy; Emerging Markets; Policy; Trade; Conflict and Resolution; Banking Industry; Public Administration Industry; Moscow

September 2014 (Revised May 2015)
Case

The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity

By: Laura Alfaro, Lakshmi Iyer and Hilary White

After struggling through the country's longest recession since 2008, the U.K. was expected to grow faster than any other G7 nation in 2014. Analysts wondered whether the return to growth was because, or in spite of, Prime Minister David Cameron's controversial £113... View Details

April 2015
Teaching Note

International Macroeconomics — An Online Tutorial

By: Laura Alfaro and Elizabeth A. Meyer

This is the Teaching Note to accompany "International Macroeconomics", HBS Tutorial 715-702. View Details

Keywords: International Macroeconomics; International Economy; Current Account; Unemployment; Inflation; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Gdp; Macroeconomics; Money; Business Cycles; Inflation and Deflation; Trade

April 2015
Tutorial

Introduction to International Macroeconomics

By: Laura Alfaro and Elizabeth A. Meyer

This tutorial is a web-based, interactive program which will provide students with an introduction to the basic principles of macroeconomics and international macroeconomics. View Details

Keywords: International Macroeconomics; International Economy; Current Account; Unemployment; Inflation; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Gdp; Macroeconomics; Money; Business Cycles; Inflation and Deflation; Trade

February 2013
Teaching Note

Australia: Commodities and Competitiveness (TN)

By: Laura Alfaro, Richard H.K. Vietor and Hilary White

For the past few decades, Australia has dealt with the benefits and costs of repeated mining booms—inflation, a housing bubble, a current account deficit and growing dependence on China. Between 1996 and 2007, however, Australia had most of these issues under control... View Details

Keywords: Competitiveness; Inflation; Mining; Current Account; Exchange Rates; Trade; Capital Flows; Commodities; Environment; Carbon Tax; Goods and Commodities; Australia

01 Apr 2024
In Practice

Navigating the Mood of Customers Weary of Price Hikes

Inflation remains front and center for consumers and businesses, which continue to reel from the double-digit rise in prices during the COVID-19 pandemic and the interest rate hikes designed to cool them. While price increases for goods... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Retail; Consumer Products

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