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      • August 2014
      • Case

      Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2014)

      By: John Gourville
      An updated "Four Products" case. This 2014 version includes: raw lobster meat, electric-powered Formula One race cars, a 3D printer for cosmetics, and a "smart" tennis racket. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details
      Keywords: Product Diffusion; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption
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      Gourville, John. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2014)." Harvard Business School Case 515-023, August 2014.
      • Article

      Learning Through Noticing: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment

      By: Rema Hanna, Sendhil Mullainathan and Joshua Schwartzstein
      We consider a model of technological learning under which people "learn through noticing": they choose which input dimensions to attend to and subsequently learn about from available data. Using this model, we show how people with a great deal of experience may... View Details
      Keywords: Perception; Behavior; Learning
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      Hanna, Rema, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Joshua Schwartzstein. "Learning Through Noticing: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment." Quarterly Journal of Economics 129, no. 3 (August 2014): 1311–1353. (Online Appendix.)
      • August 2014
      • Article

      Mortgage Convexity

      By: Samuel G. Hanson
      Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS... View Details
      Keywords: Mortgages; Interest Rates; Volatility
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      Hanson, Samuel G. "Mortgage Convexity." Journal of Financial Economics 113, no. 2 (August 2014): 270–299. (Internet Appendix Here.)
      • 2014
      • Working Paper

      Non-Adherence in Health Care: A Positive and Normative Analysis

      By: Mark Egan and Tomas J. Philipson
      Non-adherence in health care results when a patient does not initiate or continue care that a provider has recommended. Previous research identifies non-adherence as a major source of waste in US health care, totaling approximately 2.3% of GDP, and have proposed a... View Details
      Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Behavior; Economics; Analysis; Mathematical Methods
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      Egan, Mark, and Tomas J. Philipson. "Non-Adherence in Health Care: A Positive and Normative Analysis." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 20330, July 2014. (Previously titled, "Health Care Adherence and Personalized Medicine.")
      • June 2014
      • Case

      Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A)

      By: Mihir A. Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
      By the end of 2013, Apple had $137 billion dollars in cash and marketable securities. This case explores how companies can generate such large amounts of cash and how and if they should distribute it to shareholders, especially in the face of shareholder pressure. In... View Details
      Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
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      Desai, Mihir A., and Elizabeth A. Meyer. "Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A)." Harvard Business School Case 214-085, June 2014.
      • June 2014 (Revised March 2016)
      • Case

      Relating to Peapod

      By: Susan Fournier and Jill Avery
      Explores the relationships formed between consumers and the Peapod consumer-direct grocery delivery service, as revealed through an ethnographic study of Boston-area Peapod shoppers conducted between the Summer of 1997 and the Fall of 1999. Three representative case... View Details
      Keywords: Brands and Branding; Customer Relationship Management; Marketing Strategy; Service Industry; Boston
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      Fournier, Susan, and Jill Avery. "Relating to Peapod." Harvard Business School Case 314-142, June 2014. (Revised March 2016.)
      • June 2014
      • Supplement

      Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Student Supplement

      By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
      This is the student spreadsheet supplement to case 214-085, Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A). View Details
      Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
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      Desai, Mihir, and Elizabeth A. Meyer. "Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Student Supplement." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 214-714, June 2014.
      • 2014
      • Working Paper

      Amount and Diversity of Emotional Expression on Facebook Predicts Life Satisfaction around the World

      By: A. Kogan, F. Zhang, R. Sun, E. Simon-Thomas, P. Piff, S. Fan, J. Gruber, J. Quoidbach, M. I. Norton, C. Gronin, P. Fleming, D. Keltner and A.W. Brooks
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      Kogan, A., F. Zhang, R. Sun, E. Simon-Thomas, P. Piff, S. Fan, J. Gruber, J. Quoidbach, M. I. Norton, C. Gronin, P. Fleming, D. Keltner, and A.W. Brooks. "Amount and Diversity of Emotional Expression on Facebook Predicts Life Satisfaction around the World." Working Paper, 2014.
      • June 2014
      • Supplement

      Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (B)

      By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
      This case is meant to accompany Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) and details the results of Apple's Q2 2013 earnings call. View Details
      Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
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      Desai, Mihir, and Elizabeth A. Meyer. "Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 214-094, June 2014.
      • April 2014
      • Article

      The Emergence of 'Us and Them' in 80 Lines of Code: Modeling Group Genesis in Homogeneous Populations

      By: Kurt Gray, David G. Rand, Eyal Ert, Kevin Lewis, Steve Hershman and Michael I. Norton
      Psychological explanations of group genesis often require population heterogeneity in identity or other characteristics, whether deep (e.g., religion) or superficial (e.g., eye color). We use game-theoretical agent-based models to explore group genesis in homogeneous... View Details
      Keywords: Groups and Teams
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      Gray, Kurt, David G. Rand, Eyal Ert, Kevin Lewis, Steve Hershman, and Michael I. Norton. "The Emergence of 'Us and Them' in 80 Lines of Code: Modeling Group Genesis in Homogeneous Populations." Psychological Science 25, no. 4 (April 2014): 982–990.
      • March 2014 (Revised January 2025)
      • Case

      Ukraine: On the Border of Europe and Eurasia

      By: Rawi Abdelal, Rafael M. Di Tella, Sogomon Tarontsi and Lavinia Teodorescu
      In the fall of 2013, the people of Ukraine disagreed passionately whether their country should intensify ties with the European Union or Russia. After President Yanukovych rejected the free trade agreement with the EU in November, thousands of Ukrainians peacefully... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Making; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Judgments; Geopolitical Units; Country; Globalization; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Global Strategy; Globalized Economies and Regions; Globalized Markets and Industries; Government and Politics; International Relations; National Security; Growth and Development; History; Europe; Ukraine; European Union; Russia
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      Abdelal, Rawi, Rafael M. Di Tella, Sogomon Tarontsi, and Lavinia Teodorescu. "Ukraine: On the Border of Europe and Eurasia." Harvard Business School Case 714-042, March 2014. (Revised January 2025.)
      • 2014
      • Working Paper

      Visualizing and Measuring Software Portfolio Architectures: A Flexibility Analysis

      By: Robert Lagerstrom, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack and David Dreyfus
      In this paper, we test a method for visualizing and measuring software portfolio architectures and use our measures to predict the costs of architectural change. Our data is drawn from a biopharmaceutical company, comprising 407 architectural components with 1,157... View Details
      Keywords: Design Structure Matrices; Software Architecture; Flexibility; Software Application Portfolio; Complexity; Applications and Software; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Lagerstrom, Robert, Carliss Y. Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, and David Dreyfus. "Visualizing and Measuring Software Portfolio Architectures: A Flexibility Analysis." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-083, March 2014.
      • 2014
      • Article

      Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns

      By: Robin Greenwood and Dimitri Vayanos
      We examine empirically how the maturity structure of government debt affects bond yields and excess returns. Our analysis is based on a theoretical model of preferred habitat in which clienteles with strong preferences for specific maturities trade with arbitrageurs.... View Details
      Keywords: Bonds; Investment Return
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      Greenwood, Robin, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 663–713. (Also earlier version NBER Working Paper Series, No. 13806, February 2008.)
      • March 2014
      • Article

      Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence

      By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
      Theory predicts that there is a close link between bank credit supply and the evolution of the business cycle. Yet fluctuations in bank-loan supply have been hard to quantify in the time series. While loan issuance falls in recessions, it is not clear if this is due to... View Details
      Keywords: Business Cycles; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Banks and Banking; Bonds; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry
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      Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Cyclicality of Credit Supply: Firm Level Evidence." Journal of Monetary Economics 62 (March 2014): 76–93.
      • 2014
      • Article

      Notes from the Search for Deep Indicators in Services

      By: James L. Heskett
      Much of the research in the service sector over the last four decades has concerned itself with the search for deep indicators that explain service performance. This paper provides a brief retrospective of some of this research and illustrates the directions that this... View Details
      Keywords: Service Delivery; Organizational Culture; Performance; Service Industry
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      Heskett, James L. "Notes from the Search for Deep Indicators in Services." Journal of Service Management 25, no. 3 (2014): 298–309.
      • 2014
      • Working Paper

      Bio-Piracy or Prospering Together? Fuzzy Set and Qualitative Analysis of Herbal Patenting by Firms

      By: Prithwiraj Choudhury and Tarun Khanna
      Since the 1990s, several Western firms have filed patents based on medicinal herbs from emerging markets, evoking protests from local stakeholders against 'bio-piracy'. We explore conditions under which firms and local stakeholders share rents from such patents. Our... View Details
      Keywords: Rents From New Technology; Local Stakeholders; Herbal Patents; QCA; Fuzzy Set Analysis; Qualitative Case Studies; Plant-Based Agribusiness; Patents; Emerging Markets; Health Care and Treatment; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Choudhury, Prithwiraj, and Tarun Khanna. "Bio-Piracy or Prospering Together? Fuzzy Set and Qualitative Analysis of Herbal Patenting by Firms." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-081, February 2014.
      • February 2014 (Revised August 2016)
      • Case

      Strava

      By: Joseph B. Lassiter III, William A. Sahlman and Sid Misra
      Strava is a new fast-growing social network for the avid cyclist and runner. The Strava case traces the entrepreneurial journey of two serial entrepreneurs who have been co-founders in a prior venture, and who have co-founded Strava 3 years ago. The protagonists must... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Cycling; Biking; Running; Sports; Technology; Mobile App; Mobile; GPS; Motivation; Behavioral Science; Founders; Term Sheet; Investment; Terms; Silicon Valley; Lifestyle; Strava; Financing; Fundraising; Angel; Valuation; Growth; Forecast; Business Startups; Business Plan; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Choices and Conditions; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Institutional Investing; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Innovation Leadership; Innovation Strategy; Innovation and Management; Technological Innovation; Management Succession; Growth Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Market Timing; Bicycle Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Technology Industry; Sports Industry; Web Services Industry; California; New England
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      Lassiter, Joseph B., III, William A. Sahlman, and Sid Misra. "Strava." Harvard Business School Case 814-055, February 2014. (Revised August 2016.)
      • 2013
      • Book

      Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters

      By: Walter A. Friedman
      The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting And Prediction; Economic History; Economics; History; Risk and Uncertainty; United States
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      Friedman, Walter A. Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters. Princeton University Press, 2013.
      • December 2013
      • Article

      Legislating Stock Prices

      By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
      We demonstrate that legislation has a simple, yet previously undetected impact on stock prices. Exploiting the voting record of legislators whose constituents are the affected industries, we show that the votes of these "interested" legislators capture important... View Details
      Keywords: Legislator Incentives; Voting; Return Predictability; Lobbying; Motivation and Incentives; Government Legislation; Stocks
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      Cohen, Lauren, Karl Diether, and Christopher Malloy. "Legislating Stock Prices." Journal of Financial Economics 110, no. 3 (December 2013): 574–595. (Winner of Fama-DFA Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Financial Economics in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2013.)
      • November 2013
      • Article

      Adding Bricks to Clicks: On the Role of Physical Stores in a World of Online Shopping

      By: Jill Avery, Thomas Steenburgh, John A. Deighton and Mary Caravella
      Buying a product has never been easier. Consumers can shop online, over the phone or via mail order, from home or on the go, and if they want to experience touch and feel, they can also visit a "real" store. Often, one and the same retailer offers several of these... View Details
      Keywords: Channel Management; Retailing; Marketing; Marketing Channels; Marketing Strategy; E-commerce; Retail Industry; United States
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      Avery, Jill, Thomas Steenburgh, John A. Deighton, and Mary Caravella. "Adding Bricks to Clicks: On the Role of Physical Stores in a World of Online Shopping." GfK Marketing Intelligence Review 5, no. 2 (November 2013).
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