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- 2024
- Working Paper
Valuing Stocks With Earnings
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
We show that commonly used aggregate earnings are several times as volatile as stock prices
over the last three decades. Movements in the price-earnings ratio are thus entirely explained by
earnings growth and unrelated to future returns. As an alternative to the... View Details
- March 2024 (Revised July 2024)
- Case
AMC: The Zero Revenue Case
By: C. Fritz Foley and Donal O'Cofaigh
The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic put theatre company AMC’s already perilous financial situation under even further strain. The company’s high levels of debt resulted in a monthly cash-burn which left it facing an imminent Chapter-11 filing in the absence of... View Details
- March 2024 (Revised May 2024)
- Case
Masterpiece for the Masses: The First Art Exchange ARTEX
By: Lauren Cohen, Anastasiya Siroochenko (Siro) and Sophia Pan
Yassir Benjelloun-Touimi, CEO of ARTEX, aspired to marry the world of art and finance. Hoping to promote transparent, fractionalized ownership of renowned artwork, the founder had spent years contemplating the birth of an art stock market. This exchange would allow... View Details
Keywords: Trading; Art Market; Art Fair; Tokenization; Democratization; Exchange Traded Fund; Price Monitoring; Trends And Opportunities; Financial Liquidity; Financial Markets; Arts; Financial Strategy; Initial Public Offering; Investment Return; Technological Innovation; Business Model; Trends; Stocks; Assets; Diversification; Trade; Financial Services Industry; Fine Arts Industry; Paris; France
- March 2024 (Revised June 2024)
- Case
Governing OpenAI (A)
By: Lynn S. Paine, Suraj Srinivasan and Will Hurwitz
In late November 2023, OpenAI’s new board of directors took stock of the situation. The company, which sought to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI)—computer systems with capabilities exceeding human abilities—was looking to regain its footing after a chaotic... View Details
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Board Of Directors; Board Decisions; Board Dynamics; Corporate Boards; Governance Changes; Governance Structure; Leadership Change; Legal Aspects Of Business; Nonprofit Governance; Strategy And Execution; Technological Change; AI and Machine Learning; Corporate Governance; Leadership; Management; Mission and Purpose; Technological Innovation; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Governing and Advisory Boards; Resignation and Termination; Ethics; Nonprofit Organizations; Open Source Distribution; Partners and Partnerships; Technology Industry; San Francisco; United States
- March 2024 (Revised August 2024)
- Case
Darktrace: Scaling Cybersecurity and AI (A)
By: Jeffrey F. Rayport and Alexis Lefort
In 2023, Darktrace CEO Poppy Gustafsson was contemplating her growth strategy at a leading U.K.-based cybersecurity venture, launched in 2013 by a group of anti-terror cyber specialists, University of Cambridge mathematicians, and artificial intelligence (AI) experts.... View Details
Keywords: Technology; Talent; Scaling; Entrepreneurship; Cybersecurity; Leadership; Business Growth and Maturation; Recruitment; Resignation and Termination; AI and Machine Learning; Growth and Development Strategy; Organizational Culture; Going Public; Technology Industry; United Kingdom; Europe; United States
- March 2024
- Article
The Asymmetric Mispricing Information in Analysts’ Target Prices
By: Jeremiah Green, John R. M. Hand and Anywhere Sikochi
We study the mispricing information present in the target prices of U.S. and international analysts. We hypothesize that asymmetry in the value-relevance of the information that managers supply to analysts, combined with asymmetry in the incentives facing analysts to... View Details
Keywords: Analysts; Target Prices; Mispricing; Cost Of Equity; Valuation; Price; Cost; Analysis; Theory
- February 2024 (Revised February 2024)
- Case
CLSA: Integrating ESG in Stock Valuation
By: Shirley Lu, Aaron Yoon and Billy Chan
In 2023, a senior financial analyst at the Hong Kong-based stock brokerage firm CLSA was surprised to see that, based on his calculations, the financial impact from climate risks on a major Indian cement manufacturing company’s projected earnings could be massive.... View Details
- February 2024
- Supplement
JTC: Stronger Together with Shared Ownership: What JTC Did and Its Impact
By: Ethan Bernstein
Nigel Le Quesne, CEO of Jersey-based financial services firm JTC, firmly believed that "shared ownership" was at the heart of his company’s successful track record. The firm had seen its revenues, profits, and number of clients and staff grow steadily throughout its... View Details
- January–February 2024
- Article
Leaders Must React: A Framework for Responding to Unforeseen Events
By: Nitin Nohria
To be successful, CEOs must articulate a compelling vision, align people around it, and motivate them to execute it. But there’s one thing that can make or break them: how they respond in real time to unforeseen events.
On average, addressing unexpected... View Details
On average, addressing unexpected... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Who Values Democracy?
By: Max Miller
This paper tests the conventional view that redistribution is central to the democratization process using data from stock markets. Consistent with this view, democratizations have a large, negative impact on asset valuations driven by a rise in redistribution risk.... View Details
- January 2024
- Supplement
Accounting Red Flags or Red Herrings at Catalent? (B)
By: Joseph Pacelli, ZeSean Ali and Tom Quinn
GlassHouse Research identified accounting red flags at Catalent. Fiat Lux Partners countered most of GlassHouse’s claims. Who was right? This update explores the aftermath of the short seller duel. View Details
Keywords: Accounting Audits; Acquisition; Budgets and Budgeting; Business Earnings; Earnings Management; Cost Accounting; Fair Value Accounting; Financial Reporting; Revenue Recognition; Integrated Corporate Reporting; Fairness; Moral Sensibility; Values and Beliefs; Government Legislation; Conflict of Interests; Announcements; Blogs; Debates; Lawsuits and Litigation; Stocks; Performance Productivity; Pharmaceutical Industry; Accounting Industry; United States
- 2023
- Working Paper
Flow-Driven ESG Returns
I show that the recent returns to ESG investing are strongly driven by price impact
from flows towards ESG funds. Using data on institutional trades, I estimate the
market’s ability to accommodate the demand of ESG funds, which is given by the
elasticity of... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Equity Market Implications of the Retail Investment Boom
By: Philippe van der Beck and Coralie Jaunin
This paper quantifies the impact of Robinhood traders on the US equity market. Within a structural model, we estimate retail and institutional demand curves and derive aggregate pricing implications via market clearing. The inelastic nature of institutional demand... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
Trailing price ratios, such as the price-dividend and the price-earnings ratio, scale prices by trailing cash flow measures. They theoretically contain expected returns, yet, their performance in predicting stock market returns is poor. This is because of an omitted... View Details
- October 2023 (Revised April 2024)
- Case
Accounting Red Flags or Red Herrings at Catalent? (A)
By: Joseph Pacelli, ZeSean Ali and Tom Quinn
Fund manager Janet Curie asked for a recommendation about the pharmaceutical company Catalent. The company seemed like a solid investment. However, a pair of research reports issued over the previous two months complicated this narrative. GlassHouse Research, a short... View Details
Keywords: Accounting Audits; Budgets and Budgeting; Earnings Management; Cost Accounting; Fair Value Accounting; Revenue Recognition; Integrated Corporate Reporting; Fairness; Moral Sensibility; Values and Beliefs; Government Legislation; Conflict of Interests; Announcements; Blogs; Debates; Investment; Trust; Business and Shareholder Relations; Pharmaceutical Industry; Accounting Industry; United States
- October 2023 (Revised March 2024)
- Case
GameStop: Social Media Finds a Cheat Code (A)
By: Joseph Pacelli and Sarah Mehta
This case covers the events leading up to the 2021 GameStop short squeeze. Using GameStop as an illustrative example, the case explores the rise in retail trading, increased financial information sharing on social media, and the gamification of investing enabled by... View Details
- October 2023 (Revised March 2024)
- Case
Fortinet: Cybersecurity Pioneer Ken Xie Considers the Long Game
By: Tsedal Neeley, Jeff Huizinga and Emily Grandjean
Ken Xie, cofounder of cybersecurity giant Fortinet, faced a critical decision that would validate his leadership. Fortinet became the industry’s second-largest pureplay cybersecurity firm by developing differentiated hardware and investing in R&D. However, after a... View Details
- October 2023
- Article
Innovation on Wings: When Do Nonstop Flights Matter for Global Innovation?
By: Dany Bahar, Prithwiraj Choudhury, Do Yoon Kim and Wesley Koo
We study whether, when, and how better connectivity through nonstop flights leads to positive innovation outcomes for firms in the global context. Using unique data of all flights emanating from 5,015 airports around the globe from 2005 to 2015 and exploiting a... View Details
- October 2023
- Article
Stock Market Stimulus
By: Robin Greenwood, Toomas Laarits and Jeffrey Wurgler
We study the stock market effects of the arrival of the three rounds of “stimulus checks” to U.S. taxpayers and the single round of direct payments to Hong Kong citizens. The first two rounds of U.S. checks appear to have increased retail buying and share prices of... View Details
- September 29, 2023
- Article
Eliminating Algorithmic Bias Is Just the Beginning of Equitable AI
By: Simon Friis and James Riley
When it comes to artificial intelligence and inequality, algorithmic bias rightly receives a lot of attention. But it’s just one way that AI can lead to inequitable outcomes. To truly create equitable AI, we need to consider three forces through which it might make... View Details