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Publications

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      • October 2024
      • Article

      Canary Categories

      By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
      Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details
      Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry
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      Anderson, Eric, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli, and Duncan Simester. "Canary Categories." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 61, no. 5 (October 2024): 872–890.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Behavioral Attenuation

      By: Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke, Ryan Oprea and Jeffrey Yang
      We report a large-scale examination of behavioral attenuation: due to information-processing constraints, the elasticity of people’s decisions with respect to economic fundamentals is generally too small. We implement more than 30 experiments, 20 of which were... View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Behavioral Finance
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      Graeber, Thomas, Benjamin Enke, Ryan Oprea, and Jeffrey Yang. "Behavioral Attenuation." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32973, September 2024.
      • August 2024
      • Case

      Iogen: Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors

      By: George Serafeim, Charlotte Foody and John Mulliken
      Brian Foody, CEO of Iogen Corporation, was an early leader in advanced biofuels, developing a range of technologies to transform agricultural waste into transportation fuel. With $100 million in revenue and 350 patents across various biofuel technologies, Iogen was... View Details
      Keywords: Technology; Biofuel; Market Attractiveness; Decarbonization; Technological Innovation; Climate Change; Energy; Environmental Sustainability; Transformation; Market Entry and Exit; Strategy; Energy Industry; United States; United Kingdom
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      Serafeim, George, Charlotte Foody, and John Mulliken. "Iogen: Decarbonizing Hard-to-Abate Sectors." Harvard Business School Case 125-037, August 2024.
      • July–August 2024
      • Article

      Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals

      By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
      Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response, which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to... View Details
      Keywords: Long-run Targeting; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Statistical Surrogacy; Customer Churn; Field Experiments; Consumer Behavior; Customer Focus and Relationships; AI and Machine Learning; Marketing Strategy
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      Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals." Marketing Science 43, no. 4 (July–August 2024): 863–884.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Learning to Cover: Online Learning and Optimization with Irreversible Decisions

      By: Alexander Jacquillat and Michael Lingzhi Li
      Keywords: Buildings and Facilities; AI and Machine Learning; Geographic Location; Strategic Planning
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      Jacquillat, Alexander, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Learning to Cover: Online Learning and Optimization with Irreversible Decisions." Working Paper, June 2024.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Evaluations Amid Measurement Error: Determining the Optimal Timing for Workplace Interventions

      By: Matthew DosSantos DiSorbo, Iavor I. Bojinov and Fiammetta Menchetti
      Researchers have embraced factorial experiments to simultaneously evaluate multiple treatments, each with different levels. Typically, in large-scale factorial experiments, the primary objective is identifying the treatment with the largest causal effect, especially... View Details
      Keywords: Factorial Designs; Fisher Randomizations; Rank Estimators; Employer Interventions; Causal Inference; Mathematical Methods; Performance Improvement
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      DosSantos DiSorbo, Matthew, Iavor I. Bojinov, and Fiammetta Menchetti. "Evaluations Amid Measurement Error: Determining the Optimal Timing for Workplace Interventions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-075, June 2024. (Revised May 2025.)
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Advancing Personalization: How to Experiment, Learn & Optimize

      By: Aurelie Lemmens, Jason M.T. Roos, Sebastian Gabel, Eva Ascarza, Hernan Bruno, Elea McDonnell Feit, Brett Gordon, Ayelet Israeli, Carl F. Mela and Oded Netzer
      Personalization has become the heartbeat of modern marketing. Advances in causal inference and machine learning enable companies to understand how the same marketing action can impact the choices of individual customers differently. This article provides an academic... View Details
      Keywords: Personalization; Targeting; Experiments; Observational Studies; Policy Implementation; Policy Evaluation; Customization and Personalization; Marketing Strategy; AI and Machine Learning
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      Lemmens, Aurelie, Jason M.T. Roos, Sebastian Gabel, Eva Ascarza, Hernan Bruno, Elea McDonnell Feit, Brett Gordon, Ayelet Israeli, Carl F. Mela, and Oded Netzer. "Advancing Personalization: How to Experiment, Learn & Optimize." Working Paper, July 2024. (Revised March 2025.)
      • June 2024 (Revised August 2024)
      • Case

      Hospital for Special Surgery: Returning to a New Normal? (A)

      By: Robert S. Huckman, Michael Lingzhi Li and Camille Gregory
      Early on the morning of April 27, 2020, Justin Oppenheimer stood outside the entrance to the lobby of the Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS) Pavilion Building with mixed emotions. On one hand, Oppenheimer, HSS’ Enterprise Chief Operating Officer and Chief Strategy... View Details
      Keywords: Operations Management; Scheduling; Optimization; COVID-19; Health Care and Treatment; Operations; Customer Focus and Relationships; Disruption; Health Industry; United States
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      Huckman, Robert S., Michael Lingzhi Li, and Camille Gregory. "Hospital for Special Surgery: Returning to a New Normal? (A)." Harvard Business School Case 624-092, June 2024. (Revised August 2024.)
      • June 2024
      • Article

      Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms

      By: Mohammad Akbarpour, Piotr Dworczak and Scott Duke Kominers
      Many scarce public resources are allocated at below-market-clearing prices, and sometimes for free. Such "non-market" mechanisms sacrifice some surplus, yet they can potentially improve equity. We develop a model of mechanism design with redistributive concerns. Agents... View Details
      Keywords: Equality and Inequality; Welfare; Mathematical Methods; Market Design; Cost vs Benefits
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      Akbarpour, Mohammad, Piotr Dworczak, and Scott Duke Kominers. "Redistributive Allocation Mechanisms." Journal of Political Economy 132, no. 6 (June 2024): 1831–1875. (Authors' names are in certified random order.)
      • May 2024
      • Case

      Pernod Ricard: Uncorking Digital Transformation

      By: Iavor Bojinov, Edward McFowland III, François Candelon, Nikolina Jonsson and Emer Moloney
      This case study explores the opportunities and challenges of the digital transformation journey of French wine and spirits company Pernod Ricard. As part of the transformation, the company launched four key digital programs (KDPs) aimed at using data and artificial... View Details
      Keywords: Business Organization; Business Divisions; Talent and Talent Management; Global Strategy; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Digital Transformation; Digital Strategy; Advertising; Sales; Organizational Culture; Product Development; Decision Making; Technology Adoption; Alignment; Expansion; Food and Beverage Industry; France; Europe
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      Bojinov, Iavor, Edward McFowland III, François Candelon, Nikolina Jonsson, and Emer Moloney. "Pernod Ricard: Uncorking Digital Transformation." Harvard Business School Case 624-095, May 2024.
      • March 2024
      • Case

      Biomanufacturing Decentralization by Stämm

      By: Paul A. Gompers, Jenyfeer Martínez Buitrago and Mariana Cal
      In Buenos Aires, Argentina, cousins Llamazares and D’Alvia founded Stämm, a startup based on the idea of decentralizing biomanufacturing processes and downsizing biotech facilities. After raising its seed and series A rounds, and while finalizing its series B round in... View Details
      Keywords: Business Model; Business Startups; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Selection and Staffing; Technological Innovation; Science-Based Business; Business Strategy; Commercialization; Growth and Development Strategy; Product Launch; Research and Development; Biotechnology Industry; Latin America; South America; Argentina; Buenos Aires
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      Gompers, Paul A., Jenyfeer Martínez Buitrago, and Mariana Cal. "Biomanufacturing Decentralization by Stämm." Harvard Business School Case 824-190, March 2024.
      • March 2024
      • Case

      From 'BIG' Ideas to Sustainable Impact at ICL Group (A)

      By: Linda A. Hill and Lydia Begag
      In the summer of 2023, Eduard (“Eddie”) Croitoru, Vice President (VP) of ICL Group (“ICL”) Corporate Initiatives, was reflecting on ICL’s internal ideation program, the Business Innovation for Growth (BIG) Accelerator. When Raviv Zoller became the CEO of ICL in 2018,... View Details
      Keywords: Change Management; Agribusiness; Accounting; Communication; Renewable Energy; Chemicals; Machinery and Machining; Metals and Minerals; Mining; Social Entrepreneurship; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Values and Beliefs; Environmental Sustainability; Natural Resources; Globalization; Information Technology; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Leadership; Organizational Culture; Personal Development and Career; Talent and Talent Management; Manufacturing Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Chemical Industry; Israel; China; United States
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      Hill, Linda A., and Lydia Begag. "From 'BIG' Ideas to Sustainable Impact at ICL Group (A)." Harvard Business School Case 424-042, March 2024.
      • March 2024 (Revised January 2025)
      • Case

      Hippo: Weathering the Storm of the Home Insurance Crisis

      By: Lauren Cohen, Grace Headinger and Sophia Pan
      Rick McCathron, CEO of Hippo, considered how the firm’s underwriting model could account for the effects of climate change. Along with providing smart home packages, targeting risk-friendly customers, and using data-driven pricing, the Insurtech used technologically... View Details
      Keywords: Fintech; Underwriters; Big Data; Insurance Companies; Business Model Design; Weather Insurance; Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Green Technology; Technological Innovation; Natural Environment; Natural Disasters; Weather; Business Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Business Earnings; Insurance; Social Issues; Insurance Industry; United States; California
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      Cohen, Lauren, Grace Headinger, and Sophia Pan. "Hippo: Weathering the Storm of the Home Insurance Crisis." Harvard Business School Case 224-080, March 2024. (Revised January 2025.)
      • March 2024 (Revised June 2025)
      • Teaching Note

      CoPilot(s): Generative AI at Microsoft and GitHub

      By: Frank Nagle and Maria P. Roche
      This teaching note is the companion to case N9-624-010 CoPilot(s): Generative AI at Microsoft and GitHub, which takes place in late 2021. The case briefly describes the history of both GitHub and Microsoft with a particular focus on open source software (OSS)—software... View Details
      Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; AI and Machine Learning; Applications and Software; Technological Innovation; Product Launch; Open Source Distribution; Product Development; Commercialization; Competition; Resource Allocation; Technology Industry
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      Nagle, Frank, and Maria P. Roche. "CoPilot(s): Generative AI at Microsoft and GitHub." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 724-452, March 2024. (Revised June 2025.)
      • March 2024
      • Case

      Unintended Consequences of Algorithmic Personalization

      By: Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli
      “Unintended Consequences of Algorithmic Personalization” (HBS No. 524-052) investigates algorithmic bias in marketing through four case studies featuring Apple, Uber, Facebook, and Amazon. Each study presents scenarios where these companies faced public criticism for... View Details
      Keywords: Race; Gender; Marketing; Diversity; Customer Relationship Management; Prejudice and Bias; Customization and Personalization; Technology Industry; Retail Industry; United States
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      Ascarza, Eva, and Ayelet Israeli. "Unintended Consequences of Algorithmic Personalization." Harvard Business School Case 524-052, March 2024.
      • February 2024
      • Article

      An Economic Framework for Vaccine Prioritization

      By: Mohammad Akbarpour, Eric Budish, Piotr Dworczak and Scott Duke Kominers
      We propose an economic framework for determining the optimal allocation of a scarce supply of vaccines that become gradually available during a public health crisis, such as the Covid-19 pandemic. Agents differ in observable and unobservable characteristics, and the... View Details
      Keywords: Vaccine; Fairness; Public Finance; Public Goods; Allocation Problems; Allocative Efficiency; Allocation Rules; Social Welfare; Pandemics; Inequality; COVID-19; COVID-19 Pandemic; Public Sector; Resource Allocation; Market Design; Marketplace Matching; Public Administration Industry
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      Akbarpour, Mohammad, Eric Budish, Piotr Dworczak, and Scott Duke Kominers. "An Economic Framework for Vaccine Prioritization." Quarterly Journal of Economics 139, no. 1 (February 2024): 359–417. (Authors' names are in certified random order.)
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Warnings and Endorsements: Improving Human-AI Collaboration in the Presence of Outliers

      By: Matthew DosSantos DiSorbo, Kris Ferreira, Maya Balakrishnan and Jordan Tong
      Problem definition: While artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms may perform well on data that are representative of the training set (inliers), they may err when extrapolating on non-representative data (outliers). How can humans and algorithms work together to make... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      DosSantos DiSorbo, Matthew, Kris Ferreira, Maya Balakrishnan, and Jordan Tong. "Warnings and Endorsements: Improving Human-AI Collaboration in the Presence of Outliers." Working Paper, May 2025.
      • 2024
      • Case

      Christiana Figueres and the Paris Climate Negotiations (A)

      By: James K. Sebenius, Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro and Mina Subramanian
      This three-part, stop action case study, structured for classroom discussion, centers on Harvard’s Program on Negotiation 2022 Great Negotiator, Christiana Figueres, and her efforts as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change... View Details
      Keywords: Climate Change; Negotiation; Environmental Regulation; International Relations; Leadership
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      Sebenius, James K., Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro, and Mina Subramanian. "Christiana Figueres and the Paris Climate Negotiations (A)." Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School Case, 2024.
      • 2024
      • Case

      Christiana Figueres and the Paris Climate Negotiations (B)

      By: James K. Sebenius, Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro and Mina Subramanian
      This three-part, stop action case study, structured for classroom discussion, centers on Harvard’s Program on Negotiation 2022 Great Negotiator, Christiana Figueres, and her efforts as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change... View Details
      Keywords: Climate Change; Negotiation; Environmental Regulation; International Relations; Leadership
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      Sebenius, James K., Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro, and Mina Subramanian. "Christiana Figueres and the Paris Climate Negotiations (B)." Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School Case, 2024.
      • 2024
      • Case

      Christiana Figueres and the Paris Climate Negotiations: Figueres the Negotiator (C)

      By: James K. Sebenius, Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro and Mina Subramanian
      This three-part, stop action case study, structured for classroom discussion, centers on Harvard’s Program on Negotiation 2022 Great Negotiator, Christiana Figueres, and her efforts as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change... View Details
      Keywords: Climate Change; Negotiation; Environmental Management; International Relations; Leadership
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      Sebenius, James K., Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro, and Mina Subramanian. "Christiana Figueres and the Paris Climate Negotiations: Figueres the Negotiator (C)." Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School Case, 2024.
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