Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(3,769)
- Faculty Publications (497)
- 2024
- Working Paper
Scaling Core Earnings Measurement with Large Language Models
By: Matthew Shaffer and Charles CY Wang
We study the application of large language models (LLMs) to the estimation of core earnings, i.e., a firm's persistent profitability from its core business activities. This construct is central to investors' assessments of economic performance and valuations. However,... View Details
- November 2024 (Revised April 2025)
- Case
Cheerful Music
By: Shunyuan Zhang, Feng Zhu and Nancy Hua Dai
Established by Snow Jiang in 2019 in Shenzhen, China, Cheerful Music was a record label company that had created many hit songs in China. “Yi Xiao Jiang Hu,” its most famous hit song, gained billions of views on social media platforms in China and overseas as the... View Details
- November 2024 (Revised January 2025)
- Case
MiDAS: Automating Unemployment Benefits
By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai
In 2015, the state of Michigan considered whether to nominate its Michigan Integrated Data Automated System (MiDAS) for a prestigious state technology award. Launched in 2013 amid severe budget pressures, the $47 million automated fraud detection system was designed to... View Details
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; AI; Machine Learning Models; Algorithmic Data; Automation; Benefits; Compensation; Cost Reduction; Government; Fraud; Government Technology; Public Sector; Systems; Systems Integration; Unemployment Insurance; Waste Heat Recovery; AI and Machine Learning; Government Administration; Insurance; Decision Making; Digital Transformation; Employment; Public Administration Industry; United States; Michigan
- 2024
- Working Paper
Climate Solutions, Transition Risk, and Stock Returns
By: Shirley Lu, Edward J. Riedl, Simon Xu and George Serafeim
Using large language models to measure firms' climate solution products and services, we find that high-climate solution firms exhibit lower stock returns and higher market valuation multiples. Their stock prices respond positively to events signaling increased demand... View Details
- November 2024
- Article
On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout
By: Louis Kaplow and Scott Duke Kominers
Prominent theory research on voting analyzes a variety of models in which expected pivotality drives voters' turnout decisions and hence determines voting outcomes. It is recognized, however, that such work is at odds with Downs's paradox: in practice, many... View Details
- November 2024
- Article
Preference Externality Estimators: A Comparison of Border Approaches and IVs
By: Xi Ling, Wesley R. Hartmann and Tomomichi Amano
This paper compares two estimators—the Border Approach and an Instrumental Variable (IV) estimator—using a unified framework where identifying variation arises from “preference externalities,” following the intuition in Waldfogel (2003). We highlight two dimensions in... View Details
- October 2024
- Technical Note
Prompt Engineering
By: Michael Parzen and Jo Ellery
This note covers the basics of prompt engineering, a key tool for making use of modern generative AI. We discuss the principles of prompt engineering and illustrate these principles with techniques for asking questions. We further list the types of prompts that can be... View Details
- October 2024
- Article
Canary Categories
By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details
- September–October 2024
- Article
The Crowdless Future? Generative AI and Creative Problem-Solving
The rapid advances in generative artificial intelligence (AI) open up attractive opportunities for creative problem-solving through human-guided AI partnerships. To explore this potential, we initiated a crowdsourcing challenge focused on sustainable, circular economy... View Details
- September 2024
- Case
Open Door Legal: Universal Legal Access
By: Brian Trelstad, Taylor Greenthal and Sarah Mehta
This case is about Open Door Legal (ODL), a San Francisco-based civil legal aid nonprofit. CEO Adrian Tirtanadi founded the organization in 2012 with a mission to achieve universal access to legal representation for all city residents. By 2024, ODL had opened four... View Details
- September 2024
- Case
Eat App: Building and Monetizing an End-to-End Dining Experience Solution
By: Elie Ofek and Ahmed Dahawy
Founded in 2015 in Bahrain, Eat App was an up-and-coming player in the global restaurant management software business. In early 2024, having shifted to a product-led growth strategy, the company’s co-founders faced a host of decisions that could greatly impact their... View Details
- 2024
- Article
Learning Under Random Distributional Shifts
By: Kirk Bansak, Elisabeth Paulson and Dominik Rothenhäusler
Algorithmic assignment of refugees and asylum seekers to locations within host
countries has gained attention in recent years, with implementations in the U.S.
and Switzerland. These approaches use data on past arrivals to generate machine
learning models that can... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Voting Rules, Turnout, and Economic Policies
By: Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons and Jérôme Schäfer
In recent years, voter ID laws and convenience voting have generated heated partisan debates. To shed light on these policy issues, we survey the recent evidence on the institutional determinants and effects of voter turnout and broaden the perspective beyond the most... View Details
- August 2024
- Case
Ashesi University: The Journey from Vision to Reality
By: Ranjay Gulati and Caroline de Lacvivier
In 1997, Patrick Awuah had a dream: to bring liberal arts education to Ghana. Amid the country’s declining economy and pervasive corruption problems, Awuah saw education as an opportunity to reverse its fortunes by investing in the next generation of African leaders.... View Details
- August 2024 (Revised March 2025)
- Case
DBS' AI Journey
By: Feng Zhu, Harold Zhu and Adina Wong
Headquartered in Singapore, DBS Bank, one of Asia's leading financial services groups, embarked on a multi-year digital transformation under CEO Piyush Gupta in 2014. It was then that DBS also began experimenting with AI to drive value for the business and customers.... View Details
- 20 Aug 2024
- Interview
Angel City Football Club: A New Business Model for Women’s Sports
By: Jeffrey F. Rayport, Brian Kenny and Nicole Tempest Keller
Angel City Football Club (ACFC) was founded in 2020 by venture capitalist Kara Nortman, entrepreneur Julie Uhrman, and actor and activist Natalie Portman. As outsiders to professional sports, the all-female founding team had rewritten the playbook for how to build a... View Details
- August 2024
- Article
How Do Copayment Coupons Affect Branded Drug Prices and Quantities Purchased?
By: Leemore S. Dafny, Kate Ho and Edward Kong
Drug copayment coupons to reduce patient cost-sharing have become nearly ubiquitous for high-priced brand-name prescription drugs. Medicare bans such coupons on the grounds that they are kickbacks that induce utilization, but they are commonly used by... View Details
- July 2024
- Case
RMZ 4.0: 'How Fast Do We Want to Run?'
By: Boris Groysberg and Sarah L. Abbott
In 2023, RMZ Corporation (“RMZ”) a large family-owned real estate firm based in Bengaluru, India, announced plans to transform from a commercial real estate developer to a diversified alternative asset owner. Over the next 5 years, RMZ looked to grow its real estate... View Details
- July 2024
- Article
Chatbots and Mental Health: Insights into the Safety of Generative AI
By: Julian De Freitas, Ahmet Kaan Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp and Stefano Puntoni
Chatbots are now able to engage in sophisticated conversations with consumers. Due to the ‘black box’ nature of the algorithms, it is impossible to predict in advance how these conversations will unfold. Behavioral research provides little insight into potential safety... View Details
- July–August 2024
- Article
The Middle Path to Innovation
By: Regina E. Herzlinger, Duke Rohlen, Ben Creo and Will Kynes
Too many companies are failing to innovate. One reason, say the authors, is the polarized approach companies take to innovation. At one end of the spectrum, corporate R&D efforts tend to focus on product refreshes and incremental line upgrades that generate modest... View Details