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    • All HBS Web  (1,341)
      • Faculty Publications  (315)

      Behavioral FinanceRemove Behavioral Finance →

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      • February 2024
      • Article

      An Economic Framework for Vaccine Prioritization

      By: Mohammad Akbarpour, Eric Budish, Piotr Dworczak and Scott Duke Kominers
      We propose an economic framework for determining the optimal allocation of a scarce supply of vaccines that become gradually available during a public health crisis, such as the Covid-19 pandemic. Agents differ in observable and unobservable characteristics, and the... View Details
      Keywords: Vaccine; Fairness; Public Finance; Public Goods; Allocation Problems; Allocative Efficiency; Allocation Rules; Social Welfare; Pandemics; Inequality; COVID-19; COVID-19 Pandemic; Public Sector; Resource Allocation; Market Design; Marketplace Matching; Public Administration Industry
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      Akbarpour, Mohammad, Eric Budish, Piotr Dworczak, and Scott Duke Kominers. "An Economic Framework for Vaccine Prioritization." Quarterly Journal of Economics 139, no. 1 (February 2024): 359–417. (Authors' names are in certified random order.)
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Employer-Based Short-Term Savings Accounts

      By: Sarah Holmes Berk, John Beshears, Jay Garg, James J. Choi and David Laibson
      We study the introduction of a choice architecture design intended to increase short-term savings among employees at five U.K. firms. Employees were offered the opportunity to opt into a payroll deduction program that auto-deposits funds from each paycheck into a... View Details
      Keywords: Behavior; Personal Finance; Investment Funds; Employees; Saving; United Kingdom
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      Berk, Sarah Holmes, John Beshears, Jay Garg, James J. Choi, and David Laibson. "Employer-Based Short-Term Savings Accounts." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32074, January 2024.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Complexity and Hyperbolic Discounting

      By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
      A large literature shows that people discount financial rewards hyperbolically instead of exponentially. While discounting of money has been questioned as a measure of time preferences, it continues to be highly relevant in empirical practice and predicts a wide range... View Details
      Keywords: Hyperbolic Discounting; Present Bias; Bounded Rationality; Cognitive Uncertainty; Behavioral Finance
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      Enke, Benjamin, Thomas Graeber, and Ryan Oprea. "Complexity and Hyperbolic Discounting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-048, February 2024.
      • November 2023
      • Article

      Brokerage House Initial Public Offerings and Analyst Forecast Quality

      By: Mark Bradshaw, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli and Brady Twedt
      We examine how brokerage firm initial public offerings (IPOs) influence the research quality of sell-side analysts employed by the brokerage. Our main results focus on earnings forecast bias and absolute forecast errors as proxies for research quality. Using a... View Details
      Keywords: IPOs; Research Analysts; "Brokerage Industry; Initial Public Offering; Employees; Behavior; Outcome or Result
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      Bradshaw, Mark, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli, and Brady Twedt. "Brokerage House Initial Public Offerings and Analyst Forecast Quality." Management Science 69, no. 11 (November 2023): 7079–7094.
      • August 2023
      • Background Note

      Pricing and Customer Psychology

      By: Elie Ofek
      This note provides an overview of how psychological principles may be used as part of a seller’s pricing strategy. The note defines the concept of psychological pricing and explains the motivations for firms to engage in it. Prominent practices and tactics, with... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Marketing Strategy; Consumer Behavior
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      Ofek, Elie. "Pricing and Customer Psychology." Harvard Business School Background Note 524-019, August 2023.
      • August 2023
      • Article

      Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?

      By: Laurent Calvet, Claire Célérier, Paolo Sodini and Boris Vallée
      This paper shows that securities with a non-linear payoff design can foster household risk-taking. We demonstrate this effect empirically by exploiting the introduction of capital guarantee products in Sweden from 2002 to 2007. The fast and broad adoption of these... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Innovation; Household Finance; Structured Products; Stock Market Participation; Finance; Innovation and Invention; Household; Personal Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Market Participation
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      Calvet, Laurent, Claire Célérier, Paolo Sodini, and Boris Vallée. "Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?" Journal of Finance 78, no. 4 (August 2023): 1917–1966.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      How People Use Statistics

      By: Pedro Bordalo, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
      We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the problem. We offer a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Microeconomics; Mathematical Methods; Behavioral Finance
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      Bordalo, Pedro, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "How People Use Statistics." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31631, August 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Algorithm Failures and Consumers' Response: Evidence from Zillow

      By: Isamar Troncoso, Runshan Fu, Nikhil Malik and Davide Proserpio
      In November 2021, Zillow announced the closure of its iBuyer business. Popular media largely attributed this to a failure of its proprietary forecasting algorithm. We study the response of consumers to Zillow’s iBuyer business closure. We show that after the iBuyer... View Details
      Keywords: Algorithmic Pricing; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Consumer Behavior; Real Estate Industry
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      Troncoso, Isamar, Runshan Fu, Nikhil Malik, and Davide Proserpio. "Algorithm Failures and Consumers' Response: Evidence from Zillow." Working Paper, July 2023.
      • July 2023
      • Article

      Before or After? The Effects of Payment Decision Timing in Pay-What-You-Want Contexts

      By: Raghabendra P. KC, Vincent Mak and Elie Ofek
      We study how payment decision timing—before versus after product delivery—influences consumer payment under pay-what-you-want pricing. We focus on situations where there is minimal change in consumer uncertainty regarding the product before versus after receiving it.... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Behavior; Valuation; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving
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      KC, Raghabendra P., Vincent Mak, and Elie Ofek. "Before or After? The Effects of Payment Decision Timing in Pay-What-You-Want Contexts." Journal of Marketing 87, no. 4 (July 2023): 618–635.
      • 2023
      • Chapter

      Inflation and Misallocation in New Keynesian Models

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Francesco Lippi and Ken Miyahara
      The New Keynesian framework implies that sluggish price adjustment results in a distorted allocation of resources. We use a simple model to quantify these unobservable distortions, using data that depict the price-setting behavior of firms, specifically the frequency... View Details
      Keywords: Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Price; Analytics and Data Science; Cost
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Francesco Lippi, and Ken Miyahara. "Inflation and Misallocation in New Keynesian Models." In ECB Forum on Central Banking 26-28 June 2023, Sintra, Portugal: Macroeconomic Stabilisation in a Volatile Inflation Environment. European Central Bank, 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Market for Sharing Interest Rate Risk: Quantities and Asset Prices

      By: Ishita Sen, Umang Khetan, Jane Li and Ioana Neamtu
      We study the extent of interest rate risk sharing across the financial system using granular positions and transactions data in interest rate swaps. We show that pension and insurance (PF&I) sector emerges as a natural counterparty to banks and corporations: overall,... View Details
      Keywords: Interest Rates; Investment Funds; Banks and Banking; Insurance; Investment Banking; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Sen, Ishita, Umang Khetan, Jane Li, and Ioana Neamtu. "The Market for Sharing Interest Rate Risk: Quantities and Asset Prices." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-052, February 2024.
      • May 2023
      • Article

      Political Ideology and International Capital Allocation

      By: Elisabeth Kempf, Mancy Luo, Larissa Schäfer and Margarita Tsoutsoura
      Does investors' political ideology shape international capital allocation? We provide evidence from two settings—syndicated corporate loans and equity mutual funds—to show ideological alignment with foreign governments affects the cross-border capital allocation by... View Details
      Keywords: Capital Flows; Syndicated Loans; Mutual Funds; Partisanship; Polarization; Elections; Political Ideology; Banks and Banking; Institutional Investing; Behavioral Finance; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Kempf, Elisabeth, Mancy Luo, Larissa Schäfer, and Margarita Tsoutsoura. "Political Ideology and International Capital Allocation." Journal of Financial Economics 148, no. 2 (May 2023): 150–173.
      • April 17, 2023
      • Article

      Crypto-Influencers Give Poor Investment Advice—and the SEC Is Taking Notice

      By: Joseph Pacelli
      Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Power and Influence; Investment; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Investment Return; Consumer Behavior
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      Pacelli, Joseph. "Crypto-Influencers Give Poor Investment Advice—and the SEC Is Taking Notice." Promarket (April 17, 2023).
      • December 2022
      • Case

      The Magic of Marks & Spencer Food

      By: David E. Bell, Natalie Kindred and Damien McLoughlin
      Keywords: Brands and Branding; Food; Consumer Behavior; Product Development; Competition; Price; Inflation and Deflation; Trends; Growth and Development; Strategy; Retail Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United Kingdom
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      Bell, David E., Natalie Kindred, and Damien McLoughlin. "The Magic of Marks & Spencer Food." Harvard Business School Case 523-080, December 2022.
      • 2022
      • Article

      The Effects of Public and Private Equity Markets on Firm Behavior

      By: Shai Bernstein
      In this article, I review the theoretical and empirical literature on the effects of public and private equity markets on firm behavior, emphasizing the consequences that emerge from disclosure requirements, ownership concentration, and degree of firm standardization.... View Details
      Keywords: Corporate Finance And Governance; Financing Policy; Commercialization; Capital Markets; Private Equity; Public Equity; Venture Capital; Innovation and Invention; Cost of Capital
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      Bernstein, Shai. "The Effects of Public and Private Equity Markets on Firm Behavior." Annual Review of Financial Economics 14 (2022): 295–318.
      • August 2022
      • Article

      The Bulletproof Glass Effect: Unintended Consequences of Privacy Notices

      By: Aaron R. Brough, David A. Norton, Shannon L. Sciarappa and Leslie K. John
      Drawing from a content analysis of publicly traded companies’ privacy notices, a survey of managers, a field study, and five online experiments, this research investigates how consumers respond to privacy notices. A privacy notice, by placing legally enforceable limits... View Details
      Keywords: Choice; Purchase Intent; Privacy; Privacy Notices; Warnings; Assurances; Information Disclosure; Trust; Consumer Behavior; Spending; Decisions; Information; Communication
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      Brough, Aaron R., David A. Norton, Shannon L. Sciarappa, and Leslie K. John. "The Bulletproof Glass Effect: Unintended Consequences of Privacy Notices." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 59, no. 4 (August 2022): 739–754.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Confidence, Self-Selection and Bias in the Aggregate

      By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea
      The influence of behavioral biases on aggregate outcomes like prices and allocations depends in part on self-selection: whether rational people opt more strongly into aggregate interactions than biased individuals. We conduct a series of betting market, auction and... View Details
      Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Cognition and Thinking; Markets; Price
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      Enke, Benjamin, Thomas Graeber, and Ryan Oprea. "Confidence, Self-Selection and Bias in the Aggregate." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30262, July 2022.
      • June 2022 (Revised August 2022)
      • Case

      Dollar Tree: Breaking the Buck

      By: Jill Avery and Marco Bertini
      For thirty-five years, Dollar Tree, a discount retail chain selling general merchandise, had held its fixed price point steady, pricing all of its household items, food, stationery, books, seasonal items, gifts, toys, and clothing that made up its diverse and... View Details
      Keywords: Retailing; Pricing; Pricing Strategy; Discount Retailing; Discount Store; Marketing; Brands and Branding; Marketing Strategy; Price; Inflation and Deflation; Consumer Behavior; Retail Industry; United States
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      Avery, Jill, and Marco Bertini. "Dollar Tree: Breaking the Buck." Harvard Business School Case 522-091, June 2022. (Revised August 2022.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Retail Investors’ Contrarian Behavior Around News, Attention, and the Momentum Effect

      By: Cheng (Patrick) Luo, Enrichetta Ravina, Marco Sammon and Luis M. Viceira
      Using a large panel of U.S. brokerage accounts trades and positions, we show that a large fraction of retail investors trade as contrarians after large earnings surprises, especially for loser stocks, and that such contrarian trading contributes to post earnings... View Details
      Keywords: Retail Investors; Post Earnings Announcement Drift; Price Momentum; Behavioral Finance; Investment; Demographics
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      Luo, Cheng (Patrick), Enrichetta Ravina, Marco Sammon, and Luis M. Viceira. "Retail Investors’ Contrarian Behavior Around News, Attention, and the Momentum Effect." Working Paper, June 2022.
      • May 2022
      • Case

      Rawbank's Illico Cash: Can 'Fast Money' Overcome Cash Dependency in the DRC?

      By: Lauren Cohen and Grace Headinger
      Thomas de Dreux-Brézé, the Head of Strategy and Project Management at Rawbank Congo in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), was perplexed as he reviewed annual adoption rates for the bank’s launch of Illico Cash 2.0. As the bank’s mobile money app, Illico Cash... View Details
      Keywords: Fintech; Inflation; Deflation; Rural; Urban; Emerging Market; Mobile Technology; Finance; Money; Inflation and Deflation; Business Growth and Maturation; Decision Choices and Conditions; Demographics; Developing Countries and Economies; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Behavioral Finance; Currency; Banks and Banking; Commercial Banking; Financial Strategy; Rural Scope; Urban Scope; Innovation Strategy; Emerging Markets; Network Effects; Consumer Behavior; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Technology Adoption; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; Congo, Democratic Republic of the
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      Cohen, Lauren, and Grace Headinger. "Rawbank's Illico Cash: Can 'Fast Money' Overcome Cash Dependency in the DRC?" Harvard Business School Case 222-084, May 2022.
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