Decision Choice And Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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Article

Distributionally Robust Optimization and Its Tractable Approximations

By: Joel Goh and Melvyn Sim

In this paper we focus on a linear optimization problem with uncertainties, having expectations in the objective and in the set of constraints. We present a modular framework to obtain an approximate solution to the problem that is distributionally robust and more... View Details

Keywords: Information Technology; Mathematical Methods; Operations

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1994
Chapter

Competition Policy and Privatization: An Organizational Perspective

By: James Langenfeld and Dennis Yao

Competition (antitrust) policies in Central and Eastern Europe need to address both short-term problems associated with the transition to a market economy as well as the development of institutions suitable for a mature market economy. In this paper we employ an... View Details

Keywords: Economic Systems; Policy; Development Economics; Emerging Markets

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June 2011 (Revised May 2012)
Case

Nestlé SA: Nutrition, Health and Wellness Strategy

By: Rebecca M. Henderson and Ryan Johnson

In 1997 Nestlé committed to a strategic vision of becoming the leading nutrition, health and wellness (NHW) company in the world. Over the next 13 years, the NHW strategy guided strategic decisions and choices at Nestlé including merger and acquisition choices,... View Details

Keywords: Nutrition; Health; Growth and Development Strategy; Decision Choices and Conditions; Goals and Objectives; Value Creation; Food and Beverage Industry

July 2024
Article

A (Dynamic) Investigation of Stereotypes, Belief-Updating, and Behavior

By: Katherine B. Coffman, Paola Ugalde Araya and Basit Zafar

Many decisions—such as what educational or career path to pursue—are dynamic in nature, with individuals receiving feedback at one point in time and making decisions later. Using a controlled experiment, with two sessions one week apart, we analyze the dynamic effects... View Details

Keywords: Feedback; Beliefs; Stereotypes; Self-assessment; Gender Gap; Gender; Equality and Inequality; Perception; Decision Choices and Conditions

May 2020 (Revised March 2022)
Case

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (A)

By: Alberto Cavallo and Christian Godwin

In April 2020, the world struggled to contain the exponential escalation of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Dozens of countries had imposed restrictions on travel, work, and social gatherings. A large share of the global population was under lockdowns and... View Details

24 May 2016
News

The EU Has Trust Issues, and It’s Taking Down Greece’s Economy

2013
Article

Inflated Applicants: Attribution Errors in Performance Evaluation by Professionals

By: S. A. Swift, D. Moore, Z. Sharek and F. Gino

When explaining others' behaviors, achievements, and failures, it is common for people to attribute too much influence to disposition and too little influence to structural and situational factors. We examine whether this tendency leads even experienced professionals... View Details

Keywords: Evaluations; Correspondence Bias; Selection Decisions; Attribution; Prejudice and Bias; Selection and Staffing; Decision Choices and Conditions; Performance Evaluation; Cognition and Thinking

2014
Article

Thought Calibration: How Thinking Just the Right Amount Increases One’s Influence and Appeal

By: Daniella Kupor, Zakary L. Tormala, Michael I. Norton and Derek D. Rucker

Previous research suggests that people draw inferences about their attitudes and preferences based on their own thoughtfulness. The current research explores how observing other individuals make decisions more or less thoughtfully can shape perceptions of those... View Details

Keywords: Thoughtfulness; Liking; Social Influence; Decisions; Attitudes; Cognition and Thinking; Power and Influence

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December 2024 (Revised January 2025)
Case

Balancing Returns and Responsibilities at Raya Partners

By: Arthur Segel, Ephraim Mernick, Derek C. M. van Bever and Olivia Barba

Raya Partners, a private equity firm, faces a crucial decision regarding Asa Specialty Coatings Company (ASCC). The dilemma involves shifting ASCC's manufacturing operations to Mexico, a move that would boost profitability and reduce emissions but result in significant... View Details

Keywords: Factories, Labs, and Plants; Communication Strategy; Private Equity; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Environmental Sustainability; Values and Beliefs; Financial Services Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Mexico; Vermont

November 2012 (Revised November 2013)
Case

Persephone's Pomegranate: Crédit Agricole and Emporiki

By: Dante Roscini, Daniela Beyersdorfer and Jerome Lenhardt

In 2006 the French bank Crédit Agricole bought the Greek Emporiki bank, for €2.8 billion, at the peak of a bull market for bank takeovers. Six years, a major financial crisis, and €5.2 billion of losses later, in a context of great uncertainty in the European banking... View Details

Keywords: Business and Government Relations; Currency; Development Economics; International Finance; International Relations; Banking Industry; Greece

04 Feb 2021
Research & Ideas

Inside CEOs' Pandemic Worries: Uncertainty, Employees, and Kids

Employee well-being. CEOs were concerned about their employees: their safety on the job; overall well-being; and their own task as leaders of “keeping up morale and managing people’s fears.” Having to make... View Details

Keywords: by Gamze D. Yucaoglu, Robin Abrahams, and Boris Groysberg

October 2014
Supplement

Honeywell and the Great Recession: The Economic Recovery (B)

By: Sandra J. Sucher and Susan J. Winterberg

Five years after the Great Recession, Honeywell's CEO Dave Cote and his executive team reflect on the choices they made to manage costs and earnings forecasts during that uncertain time. They discuss which cost cutting measures they decided to take and their personal... View Details

Keywords: Layoffs; Furloughs; Downsizing; Work Sharing; Short Time Work; Recessions; Earnings Forecast; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Cost Management; Executive Compensation; Crisis Management; Financial Crisis; Manufacturing Industry

January 2017 (Revised December 2017)
Case

Merging American Airlines and US Airways (A)

By: David G. Fubini, David A. Garvin and Carin-Isabel Knoop

In February 2013, US Airways announced that it would merge with American Airlines to create the world’s largest airline. Doug Parker, the CEO of US Airways, would become CEO of the new American Airlines Group (AAL). The case describes a number of critical decisions... View Details

Keywords: Airlines; Merger; Takeover; Integration Strategy; Merger Integration; Mergers and Acquisitions; Decision Making; Governance; Management Teams; Operations; Organizational Culture; Air Transportation Industry; United States

Research Summary

Overview

By: John Beshears

In his research, Professor Beshears shows how managers can influence the behavior of customers and employees by changing the decision-making environment to call attention to a decision, to use psychological framing to shape assessments of options, or to help... View Details

Keywords: Behavioral Economics; Consumer Finance; Household Finance; Health Care; Organizational Economics; Decision Making; Economics; Negotiation; Behavioral Finance

2009
Working Paper

Product-Market Competition and Managerial Autonomy

By: Christian Alejandro Ruzzier

It is often argued that competition forces managers to make better choices, thus favoring managerial autonomy in decision making. I formalize and challenge this idea. Suppose that managers care about keeping their position or avoiding interference, and that they can... View Details

Keywords: Management; Competition; Decision Making

June 2014 (Revised March 2016)
Teaching Note

Starbucks Coffee Company: Transformation and Renewal

By: Nancy F. Koehn

11 Jan 2017
Blog Post

Leadership and Diversity at HBS

City. His determination and grit from the football field translated well to the workplace, and he later went on to work in private equity before applying to HBS. We checked in with Bruce to learn more about... View Details

2007
Working Paper

I'll Have the Ice Cream Soon and the Vegetables Later: A Study of Online Grocery Purchases and Order Lead Time

By: Katherine L. Milkman, Todd Rogers and Max H. Bazerman

How do decisions made for tomorrow or two days in the future differ from decisions made for several days in the future? We use data from an online grocer to address this question. In general, we find that as the delay between order completion and delivery increases,... View Details

Keywords: Internet and the Web; Food; Decision Choices and Conditions; Conflict and Resolution; Emotions; Cognition and Thinking; Food and Beverage Industry; Food and Beverage Industry

2010
Working Paper

Trade Policy and Firm Boundaries

By: Laura Alfaro, Paola Conconi, Harald Fadinger and Andrew F. Newman

We study how trade policy affects firms' ownership structures. We embed an incomplete contracts model of vertical integration choices into a standard perfectly-competitive international trade framework. Integration decisions are driven by a trade-off between the... View Details

Keywords: Trade; Policy; Vertical Integration; Business and Government Relations; Boundaries; Ownership; Mathematical Methods

November 1990 (Revised August 1996)
Background Note

Sampling and Statistical Inference

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

An introduction to sampling and statistical inference that covers the main concepts (confidence intervals, tests of statistical significance, choice of sample size) that are needed in making inferences about a population mean or percent. Includes discussion of problems... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

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