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      • Faculty Publications  (3,030)

      Behavioral Decision MakingRemove Behavioral Decision Making →

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      • 2023
      • Article

      Towards Bridging the Gaps between the Right to Explanation and the Right to Be Forgotten

      By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Satyapriya Krishna and Jiaqi Ma
      The Right to Explanation and the Right to be Forgotten are two important principles outlined to regulate algorithmic decision making and data usage in real-world applications. While the right to explanation allows individuals to request an actionable explanation for an... View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
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      Lakkaraju, Himabindu, Satyapriya Krishna, and Jiaqi Ma. "Towards Bridging the Gaps between the Right to Explanation and the Right to Be Forgotten." Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) 40th (2023): 17808–17826.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Algorithm Failures and Consumers' Response: Evidence from Zillow

      By: Isamar Troncoso, Runshan Fu, Nikhil Malik and Davide Proserpio
      In November 2021, Zillow announced the closure of its iBuyer business. Popular media largely attributed this to a failure of its proprietary forecasting algorithm. We study the response of consumers to Zillow’s iBuyer business closure. We show that after the iBuyer... View Details
      Keywords: Algorithmic Pricing; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Consumer Behavior; Real Estate Industry
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      Troncoso, Isamar, Runshan Fu, Nikhil Malik, and Davide Proserpio. "Algorithm Failures and Consumers' Response: Evidence from Zillow." Working Paper, July 2023.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Anti-Political-Establishment Citizens: An In-Depth Study from Two Latin American Countries

      By: Loreto Cox and Natalia Garbiras-Diaz
      Building on citizens’ animosity towards politicians, anti-establishment parties and candidates have achieved significant electoral success. While recent studies examine the supply-side, we know little about what drives citizens’ anti-establishment sentiments and how... View Details
      Keywords: Political Parties; Political Instability; Democracy; Elections; Electoral Behavior; Election Outcomes; Ideology; Political Elections; Policy; Governance; Government and Politics; Social Issues; Society; Perception; Crime and Corruption; Latin America; South America; Colombia; Peru
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      Cox, Loreto, and Natalia Garbiras-Diaz. "Anti-Political-Establishment Citizens: An In-Depth Study from Two Latin American Countries." Working Paper, July 2024.
      • July 2023
      • Article

      Before or After? The Effects of Payment Decision Timing in Pay-What-You-Want Contexts

      By: Raghabendra P. KC, Vincent Mak and Elie Ofek
      We study how payment decision timing—before versus after product delivery—influences consumer payment under pay-what-you-want pricing. We focus on situations where there is minimal change in consumer uncertainty regarding the product before versus after receiving it.... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Behavior; Valuation; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving
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      KC, Raghabendra P., Vincent Mak, and Elie Ofek. "Before or After? The Effects of Payment Decision Timing in Pay-What-You-Want Contexts." Journal of Marketing 87, no. 4 (July 2023): 618–635.
      • July 11, 2023
      • Article

      How Reputation Does (and Does Not) Drive People to Punish Without Looking

      By: Jillian J. Jordan and Nour S. Kteily
      Punishing wrongdoers can confer reputational benefits, and people sometimes punish without careful consideration. But are these observations related? Does reputation drive people to people to “punish without looking”? And if so, is this because unquestioning... View Details
      Keywords: Opposing Perspectives; Outrage Culture; Signaling; Ideology; Moralistic Punishment; Perspective; Behavior; Reputation; Decision Making
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      Jordan, Jillian J., and Nour S. Kteily. "How Reputation Does (and Does Not) Drive People to Punish Without Looking." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120, no. 28 (July 11, 2023).
      • July 2023
      • Article

      Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations

      By: Dawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner and TzuHwan Seet
      In 2001, Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander of the Yale University Investments Office developed a deterministic model for estimating future cash flows and valuations for the Yale endowment’s private equity portfolio. Their model, which is simple and intuitive, is still... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Portfolio; Analytics and Data Science
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      Beutler, Dawson, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner, and TzuHwan Seet. "Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations." Journal of Portfolio Management 49, no. 7 (July 2023): 144–158.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      The Complexity of Economic Decisions

      By: Xavier Gabaix and Thomas Graeber
      We propose a theory of the complexity of economic decisions. Leveraging a macroeconomic framework of production functions, we conceptualize the mind as a cognitive economy, where a task’s complexity is determined by its composition of cognitive operations. Complexity... View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Complexity; Perception; Consumer Behavior; Production
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      Gabaix, Xavier, and Thomas Graeber. "The Complexity of Economic Decisions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-049, February 2024.
      • June 2023
      • Simulation

      Artea Dashboard and Targeting Policy Evaluation

      By: Ayelet Israeli and Eva Ascarza
      Companies deploy A/B experiments to gain valuable insights about their customers in order to answer strategic business problems. In marketing, A/B tests are often used to evaluate marketing interventions intended to generate incremental outcomes for the firm. The Artea... View Details
      Keywords: Algorithm Bias; Algorithmic Data; Race And Ethnicity; Experimentation; Promotion; Marketing And Society; Big Data; Privacy; Data-driven Management; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; E-Commerce Strategy; Discrimination; Targeted Advertising; Targeted Policies; Pricing Algorithms; A/B Testing; Ethical Decision Making; Customer Base Analysis; Customer Heterogeneity; Coupons; Marketing; Race; Gender; Diversity; Customer Relationship Management; Marketing Communications; Advertising; Decision Making; Ethics; E-commerce; Analytics and Data Science; Retail Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; United States
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      Israeli, Ayelet, and Eva Ascarza. "Artea Dashboard and Targeting Policy Evaluation." Harvard Business School Simulation 523-707, June 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Insufficiently Justified Disparate Impact: A New Criterion for Subgroup Fairness

      By: Neil Menghani, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
      In this paper, we develop a new criterion, "insufficiently justified disparate impact" (IJDI), for assessing whether recommendations (binarized predictions) made by an algorithmic decision support tool are fair. Our novel, utility-based IJDI criterion evaluates false... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Prejudice and Bias
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      Menghani, Neil, Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Insufficiently Justified Disparate Impact: A New Criterion for Subgroup Fairness." Working Paper, June 2023.
      • June 2023 (Revised January 2024)
      • Case

      Communities In Schools (Atlanta): Innovating a College Program

      By: V. Kasturi Rangan, Lynda M. Applegate and Alexis Lefort
      Frank Brown, CIS of Atlanta's new Black CEO, was keen to extend CIS's well-honed case management in schools program to youth in college. Founded 50 years ago by Bill Milliken, CIS, a network of 110 affiliates, had built a strong program of assisting and supporting... View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Education; Expansion; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Atlanta
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      Rangan, V. Kasturi, Lynda M. Applegate, and Alexis Lefort. "Communities In Schools (Atlanta): Innovating a College Program." Harvard Business School Case 823-070, June 2023. (Revised January 2024.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment

      By: Alexander P. Frankel, Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
      We examine the role of spillover learning in shaping the value of exploratory versus incremental R&D. Using data from drug development, we show that novel drug candidates generate more knowledge spillovers than incremental ones. Despite being less likely to reach... View Details
      Keywords: Research and Development; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Frankel, Alexander P., Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li, and Dimitris Papanikolaou. "Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-074, May 2023. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31290, May 2023.)
      • May–June 2023
      • Article

      Analytics for Marketers: When to Rely on Algorithms and When to Trust Your Gut

      By: Fabrizio Fantini and Das Narayandas
      Advanced analytics can help companies solve a host of management problems, including those related to marketing, sales, and supply-chain operations, which can lead to a sustainable competitive advantage. But as more data becomes available and advanced analytics are... View Details
      Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Decision Making
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      Fantini, Fabrizio, and Das Narayandas. "Analytics for Marketers: When to Rely on Algorithms and When to Trust Your Gut." Harvard Business Review 101, no. 3 (May–June 2023): 82–91.
      • May–June 2023
      • Article

      Should Your Start-up Be For-profit or Nonprofit?: A Guide for Social Entrepreneurs

      By: Cait Brumme and Brian Trelstad
      Years ago the line between nonprofit and for-profit enterprises was clear, but that has changed. Nonprofits now offer products that compete with those of the best for-profits, and for-profits can deliver as much social value as charities. Despite the blurred... View Details
      Keywords: Business Startups; Social Entrepreneurship; Mission and Purpose; Nonprofit Organizations; For-Profit Firms; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Brumme, Cait, and Brian Trelstad. "Should Your Start-up Be For-profit or Nonprofit? A Guide for Social Entrepreneurs." Harvard Business Review 101, no. 3 (May–June 2023): 136–145.
      • June 2023
      • Article

      The Effect of Firms' Information Exposure on Safeguarding Employee Health: Evidence from COVID-19

      By: Lisa Yao Liu and Shirley Lu
      We show that information exposure through international business networks enables firms to take proactive measures that benefit employees and potentially the local community. Specifically, in the early days of COVID-19, firms that have business networks with China and... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Networks; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Health Pandemics; Decision Choices and Conditions; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact
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      Liu, Lisa Yao, and Shirley Lu. "The Effect of Firms' Information Exposure on Safeguarding Employee Health: Evidence from COVID-19." Journal of Accounting Research 61, no. 3 (June 2023): 891–933.
      • June 2023
      • Article

      When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making

      By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision... View Details
      Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making
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      McGrath, Sean, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making." Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR) (June 2023).
      • May 2023 (Revised November 2023)
      • Case

      Arcos Dorados: Decarbonizing McDonald's in Latin America

      By: George Serafeim, Michael W. Toffel, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago and Mariana Cal
      This case describes the decarbonization strategy of Arcos Dorados—McDonald’s largest independent franchisee, operating in 20 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean—and how the company measured its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including those... View Details
      Keywords: Environmental Accounting; Animal-Based Agribusiness; Plant-Based Agribusiness; Change Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Environmental Sustainability; Food; Growth Management; Supply Chain; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Strategy; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Green Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Latin America; North and Central America; South America
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      Serafeim, George, Michael W. Toffel, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago, and Mariana Cal. "Arcos Dorados: Decarbonizing McDonald's in Latin America." Harvard Business School Case 623-017, May 2023. (Revised November 2023.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Setting Gendered Expectations? Recruiter Outreach Bias in Online Tech Training Programs

      By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Karim R. Lakhani and Roberto Fernandez
      Competence development in digital technologies, analytics, and artificial intelligence is increasingly important to all types of organizations and their workforce. Universities and corporations are investing heavily in developing training programs, at all tenure... View Details
      Keywords: STEM; Selection and Staffing; Gender; Prejudice and Bias; Training; Equality and Inequality; Competency and Skills
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      Lane, Jacqueline N., Karim R. Lakhani, and Roberto Fernandez. "Setting Gendered Expectations? Recruiter Outreach Bias in Online Tech Training Programs." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-066, April 2023. (Accepted by Organization Science.)
      • Article

      Do Citizens’ Preferences Matter? Shaping Legislator Attitudes Towards Peace Agreements

      By: Miguel García-Sánchez, Aila M. Matanock and Natalia Garbiras-Díaz
      To what extent are legislators, responsible for the implementation of many peace agreements, responsive to citizens’ preferences? Examining the 2016 Colombian peace agreement, we embed an experiment in the 2019 wave of a survey of all the members of Congress. We inform... View Details
      Keywords: Legislation; Legislators; Peace Process; Agreements; Govenment; Voters' Interests; Governance; Government and Politics; Voting; Policy; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Latin America; Colombia
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      García-Sánchez, Miguel, Aila M. Matanock, and Natalia Garbiras-Díaz. "Do Citizens’ Preferences Matter? Shaping Legislator Attitudes Towards Peace Agreements." Journal of Conflict Resolution 67, no. 5 (May 2023): 893–922.
      • May 2023
      • Article

      How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates

      By: Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
      We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the... View Details
      Keywords: Political Debates; TV Debates; Voting; Political Elections; Decision Choices and Conditions
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      Le Pennec, Caroline, and Vincent Pons. "How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 138 (May 2023): 703–767.
      • May 2023
      • Article

      Incentive Effects of Subjective Allocations of Rewards and Penalties

      By: Wei Cai, Susanna Gallani and Jee-Eun Shin
      We examine the incentive effects of subjectivity in allocating tournament-based rewards and punishments. We use data from a company where reward and punishment decisions are based on a combination of objective metrics and subjective performance assessments. Rankings... View Details
      Keywords: Subjectivity; Tournament-based Incentives; Rewards; Penalties; Expectancy Theory; Employees; Compensation and Benefits; Management; Decisions; Performance; Measurement and Metrics
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      Cai, Wei, Susanna Gallani, and Jee-Eun Shin. "Incentive Effects of Subjective Allocations of Rewards and Penalties." Management Science 69, no. 5 (May 2023): 3121–3139.
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