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Article

Core Earnings: New Data and Evidence

By: Ethan Rouen, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang

Using a novel dataset, we show that components of firms' GAAP earnings stemming from ancillary business activities or transitory shocks are significant in frequency and magnitude. These components have grown over time and are dispersed across various sections of the... View Details

Keywords: Core Earnings; Transitory Earnings; Non-operating Earnings; Quantitative Disclosures; Equity Valuation; Big Data; Business Earnings; Financial Reporting; Valuation; Analytics and Data Science

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2022
Working Paper

Optimal Illiquidity

By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, Christopher Clayton, Christopher Harris, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian

We calculate the socially optimal level of illiquidity in an economy populated by households with taste shocks and naive present bias. The government chooses mandatory contributions to accounts, each witha different pre-retirement withdrawal penalty. Collected... View Details

Keywords: Illiquidity; Commitment; Flexibility; Savings; Social Security; Retirement; Government Legislation; Taxation; Saving

2023
Working Paper

Founder-CEO Compensation and Selection into Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurship

By: Michael Ewens, Ramana Nanda and Christopher Stanton

We show theoretically that a critical determinant of the attractiveness of VC-backed entrepreneurship for high-earning potential founders is the expected time to develop a startup’s initial product. This is because founder-CEOs’ cash compensation increases... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Executive Compensation

December 1989
Article

On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

By: K. A. Froot and T. Ito

This paper examines whether short-term exchange rate expectations 'overreact' by comparing them with long-term expectations. We develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons. The restrictions impose consistency, a property... View Details

Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing

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2017
Working Paper

The Benefits of Selective Disclosure: Evidence from Private Firms

By: Joan Farre-Mensa

Private firms’ ability to communicate confidentially with selected investors implies that valuation disagreements between firms and investors are larger at public firms than at private ones. Consistent with the notion that misvaluation concerns lead public firms to... View Details

Keywords: Finance; Equity; Private Companies; Corporate Cash; Precautionary Motives; Share Issuance; IPOs; Selective Disclosure; Private Ownership; Cash; Market Timing; Corporate Finance; Public Ownership; Corporate Disclosure; United States

2013
Working Paper

Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details

Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States

2014
Working Paper

Financing Risk and Innovation

By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf

We provide a model of investment into new ventures that demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk―a forecast of limited future funding―by modifying... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Venture Capital; Financial Markets; Financing and Loans; Investment; Price Bubble; Innovation and Invention; Technological Innovation; Risk and Uncertainty

May 2022
Case

Timnit Gebru: 'SILENCED No More' on AI Bias and The Harms of Large Language Models

By: Tsedal Neeley and Stefani Ruper

Dr. Timnit Gebru—a leading artificial intelligence (AI) computer scientist and co-lead of Google’s Ethical AI team—was messaging with one of her colleagues when she saw the words: “Did you resign?? Megan sent an email saying that she accepted your resignation.” Heart... View Details

Keywords: Ethics; Employment; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Technological Innovation

2017
Working Paper

The Effectiveness of White-Collar Crime Enforcement: Evidence from the War on Terror

By: Trung Nguyen

This paper studies the deterrent effect of criminal enforcement on white-collar criminal activities. Using the 9/11 terrorist attacks as a shock to the FBI’s allocation of investigative resources and priorities, and variations in the Muslim population in the United... View Details

Keywords: Regulation; Fraud; White-collar Crime; Enforcement; Crime and Corruption; Law Enforcement; System Shocks

November 2016
Supplement

Uber in China: Driving in the Gray Zone (B)

By: William C. Kirby, Yuanzhuo Wang, Shuang L. Frost and Adam K. Frost

Starting in 2014, for two years Uber had fought an intense, costly battle for China’s ridesharing market with well-financed and well-connected domestic Chinese competitors. During this time, Uber also had to respond to an ever-shifting regulatory landscape that looked... View Details

Keywords: China; Uber; Didi Chuxing; Start-up Growth; Regulation; Ride-sharing; Transportation; Business Startups; Growth and Development; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Transportation Industry; Technology Industry; China

Article

Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts

By: Kenneth Merkley, Roni Michaely and Joseph Pacelli

We examine how cultural differences among agents influence the aggregate outcome of a common forecasting task. Using both exogenous shocks to sell-side analyst diversity and panel regression methods, we find that increases in analyst cultural diversity positively... View Details

Keywords: Culture; Forecasting; Sell-side Analysts; Information Aggregation; Diversity; Forecasting and Prediction; Information; Performance Improvement

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May 2010
Article

Aggregate Market Reaction to Earnings Announcements

By: William Cready and Umit G Gurun

This analysis identifies a distinct immediate announcement period negative relation between earnings announcement surprises and aggregate market returns. Such a relation implies that market participants use earnings information in forming expectations about expected... View Details

Keywords: Aggregate Earnings; Investment Return; United States

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2013
Working Paper

Did Bank Distress Stifle Innovation During the Great Depression?

By: Ramana Nanda and Tom Nicholas

We find a negative relationship between bank distress and the level, quality and trajectory of firm-level innovation during the Great Depression, particularly for R&D firms operating in capital intensive industries. However, we also show that because a sufficient... View Details

Keywords: Great Depression; R＆D; Bank Distress; Patents; Research and Development; Financial Crisis; Innovation and Invention; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; United States

April 2017
Article

Financing Risk and Innovation

By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf

We provide a model of investment into new ventures that demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk―a forecast of limited future funding―by modifying... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Financing and Loans; Innovation and Invention

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Forthcoming
Article

Arbitrage Capital of Global Banks

By: Alyssa G. Anerson, Wenxin Du and Bernd Schlusche

We show that the role of unsecured, short-term wholesale funding for global banks has changed significantly in the post-financial-crisis regulatory environment. Global banks mainly use such funding to finance liquid, near risk-free arbitrage positions—in particular,... View Details

Keywords: Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Banks and Banking; Interest Rates; Financing and Loans

August, 2024
Article

Absenteeism, Productivity, and Relational Contracts Inside the Firm

By: Achyuta Adhvaryu, Jean-François Gauthier, Anant Nyshadham and Jorge Tamayo

We study relational contracts among managers using a unique dataset that tracks transfers of workers across teams in Indian ready-made garment factories. We focus on how relational contracts help managers cope with worker absenteeism shocks, which are frequent, often... View Details

Keywords: Implicit Contracts; Productivity; Misallocation; Absenteeism; Supervisors; Readymade Garments; Performance Productivity; Employees; Relationships; Fashion Industry; India

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2018
Working Paper

Intellectual Baggage of Ethnic Migrant Inventors: Transfer and Recombination of Knowledge Across Borders

By: Prithwiraj Choudhury

Ethnic migrant inventors might differ from locals in terms of knowledge they bring to host firms. We study the role of first-generation ethnic migrant inventors in cross-border transfer of knowledge previously locked within the cultural context of their home regions.... View Details

Keywords: Skilled Migration; Ethnic Migration; First-generation Migrant; Cultural Context; Knowledge Flows; Knowledge Reuse; Knowledge Recombination; Recombinant Creation; H1B Visas; Knowledge Sharing; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Knowledge Dissemination; Immigration; Ethnicity

2011
Working Paper

Do Powerful Politicians Cause Corporate Downsizing?

By: Lauren H. Cohen, Joshua D. Coval and Christopher J. Malloy

This paper employs a new empirical approach for identifying the impact of government spending on the private sector. Our key innovation is to use changes in congressional committee chairmanship as a source of exogenous variation in state-level federal expenditures. In... View Details

Keywords: Economic Growth; Investment; Spending; Government Administration; Employment; Managerial Roles

April 2020 (Revised July 2020)
Case

Unrest in Chile

By: Vincent Pons, William Mullins, John Masko, Annelena Lobb and Rafael Di Tella

In 2020, Chileans would head to the ballot box to decide their country’s future. Many international observers credited Chile’s decades of neoliberal governance with turning the country into Latin America’s “Tiger,” a prosperous, diversified economy on its way to... View Details

Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Macroeconomics; Economy; Political Elections; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Equality and Inequality; System Shocks; Chile; Latin America

15 Apr 2014
First Look

First Look: April 15

Poverty and Crime: Evidence from Rainfall and Trade Shocks in India By: Iyer, Lakshmi, and Petia Topalova Abstract—Does poverty lead to crime? We shed light on this question using two independent and exogenous View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

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