Publications

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16 May 2007
Working Paper Summaries

On The General Relativity of Fiscal Language

Keywords: by Jerry Green & Laurence J. Kotlikoff

01 Apr 2019
What Do You Think?

Does Our Bias Against Federal Deficits Need Rethinking?

For the last hundred years economists and many politicians have voiced concerns about fiscal deficits—with exceptions made for wartime, the Great Depression, and the recent Great Recession. Today, however, a new branch of economic theory... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

18 Sep 2006
Research & Ideas

When Words Get in the Way: The Failure of Fiscal Language

Does the federal deficit matter? Oceans of ink track and report this monster tally (current estimates for fiscal year 2006 stand at $260 billion), yet Jerry Green of Harvard Business School and Laurence J.... View Details

Keywords: by Julia Hanna

25 Jul 2016
Working Paper Summaries

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?

Keywords: by Jeffrey A. Frankel and Jesse Schreger

2016
Working Paper

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?

By: Jeffrey A. Frankel and Jesse Schreger

Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over optimistic relative to... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Macroeconomics

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April 2015 (Revised January 2020)
Case

Japan's Missing Arrow?

By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White

In late December 2014, Shinzo Abe was elected to another term as the prime minister of Japan. His re-election was largely interpreted as a vote of confidence for his economics policies, collectively referred to as "Abenomics." Comprised of three "arrows," including... View Details

May 2015
Teaching Note

The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity

By: Laura Alfaro, Lakshmi Iyer and Hilary White

After struggling through the country's longest recession since 2008, the U.K. was expected to grow faster than any other G7 nation in 2014. Analysts wondered whether the return to growth was because, or in spite of, Prime Minister David Cameron's controversial £113... View Details

Jun 2013
Working Paper

Government Debt and Competitiveness

The United States federal government’s current and projected fiscal deficits are not sustainable. View Details

April 2010 (Revised January 2013)
Case

California's Budget Crises, Tax Reform, and Domestic and International Tax Competition

By: Matthew C. Weinzierl and Jacob Kuipers

How do (and how should) governments design fiscal policies to compete in a globalized economy while meeting internal policy priorities including redistribution? In 2009, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger repeatedly declared fiscal emergencies as California's state budget... View Details

Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Economy; Globalization; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy; Taxation; Competition; California

August 2012 (Revised June 2017)
Case

Australia: Commodities and Competitiveness

By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Laura Alfaro

For the past few decades, Australia has dealt with the benefits and costs of repeated mining booms—inflation, a housing bubble, a current account deficit and growing dependence on China. Between 1996 and 2007, however, Australia had most of these issues under control... View Details

Keywords: Commodities; Competitiveness; Carbon Tax; Environment; Capital Flows; Current Account; Mining; Economy; Problems and Challenges; Australia

March 2012
Article

Macroeconomic Policy and U.S. Competitiveness

By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Matthew Weinzierl

The United States is on a glide path to fiscal disaster, with experts projecting that the federal government will take in far less money than it spends-indefinitely. Our current fiscal policy is eroding competitiveness in several ways, and business conditions in the... View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Government and Politics; Financial Crisis; Policy; Competition; Public Administration Industry; United States

April 2011 (Revised February 2013)
Background Note

How Government Debt Accumulates

By: Dante Roscini and Jonathan Schlefer

This note discusses the economics of government-debt accumulation. Fiscal deficits are only part of the picture; other factors include the level of debt as a percent of nominal GDP; the interest rate; the inflation rate; the growth rate; and changes in the exchange... View Details

Keywords: Government and Politics; Borrowing and Debt

June 2003 (Revised March 2008)
Case

India on the Move

By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Emily Thompson

By 2003, India had been growing at almost 6% annually since 1992, after it suffered a financial collapse, abandoned import substitution, and moved gradually to adopt the Washington Consensus. Now, financial controls and competition barriers are less burdensome,... View Details

Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Economic Growth; Entrepreneurship; Foreign Direct Investment; Business and Government Relations; India

July 2005 (Revised December 2006)
Case

Japan: Deficits, Demography, and Deflation

By: Richard H.K. Vietor

By 2005, Japan's debt had risen to 163% of GDP. For more than a decade, the government had run huge deficits, trying unsuccessfully to stimulate economic growth. Interest rates, meanwhile, had been zero for years. But with slow growth and banks in crisis, nothing had... View Details

Keywords: Economy; Economic Growth; Demographics; Financial Condition; Inflation and Deflation; Banks and Banking; Borrowing and Debt; Macroeconomics; Policy; Government and Politics; Welfare; Health Care and Treatment; Japan

May–June 2015
Article

Dead Weight: How Greece Wound up Trapped in the European Union

By: Debora L. Spar

In the early 1990s, Greece fell far afield of the economic criteria laid out by the Maastricht Treaty, the EU's founding document. In 1999, when the European monetary union was launched, Greece failed to meet the criteria again, but managed to squeeze into the body two... View Details

Keywords: EU; Geopolitics; Economic Conditions; Economy; Financial Crisis; Greece; European Union

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October 2013 (Revised March 2015)
Case

Cyprus (A)

By: Eric Werker, Sebastian Berardi, Stelios Elia, Omar Muakkassa and James Zumberge

Cyprus is a small Mediterranean island located at the cross-roads of Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. Since its 1974 split, Cyprus has grown real GDP more than fivefold—in large part because of its development as an "international business" center. The country... View Details

Keywords: Tax Havens; Taxation; Financial Crisis; Business and Government Relations; Cyprus