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    • Research  (171)
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  • June 2018
  • Case

Japan: Deficits, Deflation and Debt

By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason
In April 2018, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was again in Washington to petition Donald Trump. After years of rapid, export-led growth, Japan had slumped into recession in 1991 and never really recovered. For the past 27 years, its economy has grown at 1.1% annually,... View Details
Keywords: Deflation; Debt; Country Analysis; Monetary Expansion; Population Growth; Inflation and Deflation; Borrowing and Debt; Economy; Energy; National Security; Japan
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Vietor, Richard H.K., and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason. "Japan: Deficits, Deflation and Debt." Harvard Business School Case 718-063, June 2018.
  • November 2005
  • Teaching Note

Japan: Deficits, Demography and Deflation (TN)

By: Richard H.K. Vietor
Keywords: Sovereign Finance; Demographics; Inflation and Deflation; Japan
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Vietor, Richard H.K. "Japan: Deficits, Demography and Deflation (TN)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 706-020, November 2005.
  • July 2005 (Revised December 2006)
  • Case

Japan: Deficits, Demography, and Deflation

By: Richard H.K. Vietor
By 2005, Japan's debt had risen to 163% of GDP. For more than a decade, the government had run huge deficits, trying unsuccessfully to stimulate economic growth. Interest rates, meanwhile, had been zero for years. But with slow growth and banks in crisis, nothing had... View Details
Keywords: Economy; Economic Growth; Demographics; Financial Condition; Inflation and Deflation; Banks and Banking; Borrowing and Debt; Macroeconomics; Policy; Government and Politics; Welfare; Health Care and Treatment; Japan
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Vietor, Richard H.K. "Japan: Deficits, Demography, and Deflation." Harvard Business School Case 706-004, July 2005. (Revised December 2006.)
  • 12 Mar 2009
  • Working Paper Summaries

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

Keywords: by John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam & Luis M. Viceira
  • 2017
  • Article

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of... View Details
Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Bonds; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Risk Management
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Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.
  • October 1997
  • Article

Real Interest Rates and Growth: Improving on Some Deflating Experiences

By: Huw Pill
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Pill, Huw. "Real Interest Rates and Growth: Improving on Some Deflating Experiences." Journal of Development Studies 34, no. 1 (October 1997): 85–110.
  • 2009
  • Working Paper

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
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Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 14701, February 2009.
  • 2013
  • Working Paper

Internet Appendix for "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds"

By: Adi Sunderam, Luis M. Viceira and John Y. Campbell
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Sunderam, Adi, Luis M. Viceira, and John Y. Campbell. Internet Appendix for "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds". Working Paper, 2013.
  • March 2022 (Revised May 2022)
  • Case

Reclaiming the Land of Purple: Purpl’s Mission to Unlock Finance in Lebanon

By: Lauren Cohen and Grace Headinger
Karl Naim, Co-Founder and CEO of Purpl, embarked on a venture to lower remittance costs for his native Lebanon. Since October 2019, the Lebanese economy had entered a free fall as its banking sector collapsed and large swathes of its population were plunged into... View Details
Keywords: Business Startup; Fintech; Inflation; Deflation; Cross-border Frictions; Remittances; Business Startups; Diasporas; Financial Crisis; Money; Entrepreneurship; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Poverty; Financial Institutions; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; Lebanon
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Cohen, Lauren, and Grace Headinger. "Reclaiming the Land of Purple: Purpl’s Mission to Unlock Finance in Lebanon." Harvard Business School Case 222-078, March 2022. (Revised May 2022.)
  • May 2022
  • Case

Rawbank's Illico Cash: Can 'Fast Money' Overcome Cash Dependency in the DRC?

By: Lauren Cohen and Grace Headinger
Thomas de Dreux-Brézé, the Head of Strategy and Project Management at Rawbank Congo in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), was perplexed as he reviewed annual adoption rates for the bank’s launch of Illico Cash 2.0. As the bank’s mobile money app, Illico Cash... View Details
Keywords: Fintech; Inflation; Deflation; Rural; Urban; Emerging Market; Mobile Technology; Finance; Money; Inflation and Deflation; Business Growth and Maturation; Decision Choices and Conditions; Demographics; Developing Countries and Economies; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Behavioral Finance; Currency; Banks and Banking; Commercial Banking; Financial Strategy; Rural Scope; Urban Scope; Innovation Strategy; Emerging Markets; Network Effects; Consumer Behavior; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Technology Adoption; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; Congo, Democratic Republic of the
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Cohen, Lauren, and Grace Headinger. "Rawbank's Illico Cash: Can 'Fast Money' Overcome Cash Dependency in the DRC?" Harvard Business School Case 222-084, May 2022.
  • 02 Sep 2015
  • Research & Ideas

Explaining China's Crash

After more than a decade of nearly can’t-miss growth, China’s stock market began a precipitous summer slide that has spooked investors worldwide. In July, the Shanghai composite index dropped 15 percent from June, prompting the People’s Bank of China to devalue the... View Details
Keywords: by Christina Pazzanese; Financial Services
  • 2010
  • Working Paper

Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased

By: Richard S. Ruback
This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus an omitted downside.... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Performance Expectations; Prejudice and Bias; Valuation
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Ruback, Richard S. "Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-036, October 2010.
  • October 2013
  • Case

Japan: Abe's Three Arrows?

By: Richard H.K. Vietor
After the Koizumi government ended in 2006, Japan continued to struggle with slow growth, deflation and, in 2011, a tsunami and nuclear disaster. Following a series of several more unsuccessful prime ministers, Shinzo Abe again became the prime minister in 2012 and... View Details
Keywords: Economic Development; Quantitative Easing; Stagnation; National Strategy; Development Economics; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Strategy; Japan
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Vietor, Richard H.K. "Japan: Abe's Three Arrows?" Harvard Business School Case 714-017, October 2013.
  • 24 Nov 2010
  • Working Paper Summaries

Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased

Keywords: by Richard S. Ruback
  • February 2017 (Revised January 2018)
  • Case

Womenomics in Japan

By: Boris Groysberg, Mayuka Yamazaki, Nobuo Sato and David Lane
This case profiles Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's vigorous attempts to revive Japan's economy, specifically by advocating for a larger role for women in the economy—not as a matter of social policy or gender equity per se, but as an essential element of any solution to... View Details
Keywords: Gender Equality; Japan; Leadership; Government-business Relations; Shinzo Abe; Economic Growth; Aging Society; Womenomics; Abenomics; Labor Market Discrimination; Workplace Culture; Women And Leadership; Change Management; Leading Change; Gender; Business and Government Relations; Growth and Development; Employment; Working Conditions
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Groysberg, Boris, Mayuka Yamazaki, Nobuo Sato, and David Lane. "Womenomics in Japan." Harvard Business School Case 417-002, February 2017. (Revised January 2018.)
  • April 2015 (Revised January 2020)
  • Case

Japan's Missing Arrow?

By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White
In late December 2014, Shinzo Abe was elected to another term as the prime minister of Japan. His re-election was largely interpreted as a vote of confidence for his economics policies, collectively referred to as "Abenomics." Comprised of three "arrows," including... View Details
Keywords: Currency; Bonds; Government Bonds; Government Debt; Public Finance; Quantitative Easing; Stimulus; Fiscal Policy; Fiscal Deficits; Debt Management; Debt Reduction; Abenomics; Exchange Rate; Exports; Reform; Economics; Macroeconomics; Policy; Government Legislation; Government and Politics; Asia; Japan
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Alfaro, Laura, and Hilary White. "Japan's Missing Arrow?" Harvard Business School Case 715-050, April 2015. (Revised January 2020.)
  • January 2014 (Revised February 2014)
  • Case

Japan: Betting on Inflation?

By: Julio J. Rotemberg
The case focuses on the challenges still confronting Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the end of 2013, a year after he has been in office. It also gives an overview of Japan's earlier economic performance, focusing primarily on the period after it suffered a stock market... View Details
Keywords: Quantitative Easing; Debt Sustainability; International Relations; Borrowing and Debt
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Rotemberg, Julio J. "Japan: Betting on Inflation?" Harvard Business School Case 714-040, January 2014. (Revised February 2014.)
  • 10 Jan 2024
  • Research & Ideas

Technology and COVID Upended Tipping Norms. Will Consumers Keep Paying?

If you’ve recently ordered food or coffee on an app, you’re probably familiar with the prompt to tip your barista, delivery driver, or sandwich maker. Or even more commonly, when ordering at a casual dining counter, you’ve been asked to leave a tip on the screen used... View Details
Keywords: by Anna Lamb, Harvard Gazette
  • 17 Aug 2023
  • Research & Ideas

‘Not a Bunch of Weirdos’: Why Mainstream Investors Buy Crypto

In a little more than a decade, investors have transformed cryptocurrency from a techno-curiosity into a trillion-dollar-plus opportunity that has the potential to one day reshape the global economy. Yet in the past 10 years, little has been revealed about the... View Details
Keywords: by Ben Rand
  • 18 Jun 2024
  • Research & Ideas

Central Banks Missed Inflation Red Flags. This Pricing Model Could Help.

It’s no secret the Federal Reserve and other central banks weren’t prepared for the swift, steep curve of inflation’s climb after COVID-19 snarled supply chains in 2021 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy prices soaring in 2022. “Central banks are accustomed... View Details
Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Financial Services; Banking
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