Joshua Lev Krieger

In examining the competitive dynamics of R&D strategy, Josh has become particularly interested in how the introduction of new knowledge generated by rivals impacts the direction of R&D efforts. Understanding how new information alters project portfolio decisions is important for firms investing in uncertain new technologies, as well as for policy makers, who wish to spur innovation through regulatory policy (e.g., disclosure requirements). News about novel discoveries is crucial for firms that build on related knowledge to create new technologies and products. Announcements about R&D outcomes and exciting new findings force competing firms to reassess their current approach and decide how to exploit external signals. Similarly, failed projects and retracted findings may also have serious consequences for industry rivals. In the wake of these negative news events, firms must determine how to interpret failures and apply the lessons to their own project portfolios. With this research stream, Josh hopes to add to the theoretical and empirical understanding of how firms, investors, and individuals prioritize among different uncertain investments, while reacting to and learning from new information. Josh’s empirical work utilizes large and novel data to gain a finely grained picture of competition and investments across innovative projects and products. He has collected data sets on molecular novelty and target similarity in drug development projects, connected genomic risk markers to behavioral survey responses, and used text analysis tools to evaluate the relatedness of scientific research projects. He has also used bibliometric analyses to measure the utilization and diffusion of knowledge, as well as the reputation of individual researchers. In ongoing research, Josh continues to construct and use detailed data on technological distance and progress to accurately characterize competition and productivity in R&D-based sectors of the economy.