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2024
Working Paper

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

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September 2024 (Revised October 2024)
Background Note

Brief Note on How America Votes and U.S. Election Structural Issues (2024)

By: Robert F. White

This note describes how American votes, and explores several structural issues to U.S. elections. View Details

Keywords: Political Elections; Public Administration Industry; United States

September 2024
Article

Political Elite Cues and Attitude Formation in Post-Conflict Contexts

By: Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Miguel Garcia-Sanchez and Aila M. Matanock

Civil conflicts typically end with negotiated settlements, but many settlements fail, often during the implementation stage when average citizens have increasing influence. Citizens sometimes evaluate peace agreements by voting on referendums or the negotiating... View Details

Keywords: Civil Unrest; Peace Process; Political Leadership; Peace; Politics; Policy Change; Policy; Government and Politics; Government Administration; Governance; Political Elections; Civil Society or Community; Negotiation; Negotiation Participants; Public Relations Industry; Colombia; Latin America; South America

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2024
Working Paper

Voting Rules, Turnout, and Economic Policies

By: Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons and Jérôme Schäfer

In recent years, voter ID laws and convenience voting have generated heated partisan debates. To shed light on these policy issues, we survey the recent evidence on the institutional determinants and effects of voter turnout and broaden the perspective beyond the most... View Details

Keywords: Voting; Political Elections; Policy

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August 2024
Technical Note

Measuring Concentrated Ownership

By: Christina R. Wing, Everett Alexander and Justin Huang

Firms with strong governance practices exhibit lower control premiums due to reduced risks and more efficient operations. Conversely, poorly governed firms may exhibit higher control premiums as new owners anticipate the need for substantial governance improvements.... View Details

Keywords: Concentrated Ownership; Ownership; Corporate Governance; Valuation

2024
Working Paper

Social Movements and Public Opinion in the United States

By: Amory Gethin and Vincent Pons

Recent social movements stand out by their spontaneous nature and lack of stable leadership, raising doubts on their ability to generate political change. This article provides systematic evidence on the effects of protests on public opinion and political attitudes.... View Details

Keywords: Attitudes; Social Issues; Voting; Public Opinion; Social Media

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October 2023
Article

Coordination and Bandwagon Effects: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates

By: Riako Granzier, Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud

Candidates’ placements in polls or past elections can be powerful coordination devices for both parties and voters. Using a regression discontinuity design in French elections, we show that candidates who place first by only a small margin in the first round are more... View Details

Keywords: Strategic Voting; Coordination; Bandwagon Effect; Regression Discontinuity Design; French Elections; Voting; Political Elections; Behavior; France

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2023
Working Paper

The Effect of Childhood Environment on Political Behavior: Evidence from Young U.S. Movers, 1992–2021

By: Jacob R. Brown, Enrico Cantoni, Sahil Chinoy, Martin Koenen and Vincent Pons

We ask how childhood environment shapes political behavior. We measure young voters’ participation and party affiliation in nationally comprehensive voter files and reconstruct their childhood location histories based on their parents’ addresses. We compare outcomes of... View Details

Keywords: Political Parties; Government and Politics; Age; Residency; Voting

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2023
Working Paper

Words Can Hurt: How Political Communication Can Change the Pace of an Epidemic

By: Jessica Gagete-Miranda, Lucas Argentieri Mariani and Paula Rettl

While elite-cue effects on public opinion are well-documented, questions remain as to when and why voters use elite cues to inform their opinions and behaviors. Using experimental and observational data from Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic, we study how leader... View Details

2024
Working Paper

Foreign Influence in U.S. Politics

By: Marco Grotteria, Max Miller and S. Lakshmi Naaraayanan

This paper investigates the informational role of lobbyists in the context of foreign lobbying in the United States. Using Department of Justice data on contacts between foreign governments and US legislators, we show that exogenous shocks to these connections... View Details

Keywords: Political Economy; Public Finance; Political Connections; Foreign Lobbying

August 2023 (Revised January 2024)
Supplement

Arla Foods: Data-Driven Decarbonization (A)

By: Michael Parzen, Michael W. Toffel, Amram Migdal and Susan Pinckney

Arla implemented a data-based price incentive system to measure, track, and influence climate friendly changes to reduce CO2 emissions across the world’s fourth largest dairy cooperative. View Details

Keywords: Dairy Industry; Business Earnings; Earnings Management; Environmental Accounting; Agribusiness; Animal-Based Agribusiness; Acquisition; Mergers and Acquisitions; Decision Making; Decisions; Voting; Environmental Management; Climate Change; Environmental Regulation; Environmental Sustainability; Green Technology; Pollution; Moral Sensibility; Values and Beliefs; Financial Strategy; Price; Profit; Revenue; Food; Geopolitical Units; Global Strategy; Ownership Type; Cooperative Ownership; Performance Efficiency; Performance Evaluation; Problems and Challenges; Natural Environment; Science-Based Business; Business Strategy; Commercialization; Cooperation; Corporate Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Europe; United Kingdom; European Union; Germany; Denmark; Sweden; Luxembourg; Belgium

August 2023 (Revised March 2024)
Case

Arla Foods: Data-Driven Decarbonization (A)

By: Michael Parzen, Michael W. Toffel, Susan Pinckney and Amram Migdal

The case describes Arla’s history, in particular its climate change mitigation efforts, and how it implemented a price incentive system to motivate individual farms to implement scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions mitigation measures and receive a higher milk price. The... View Details

August 2023 (Revised January 2024)
Supplement

Arla Foods: Data-Driven Decarbonization (B)

By: Michael Parzen, Michael W. Toffel, Susan Pinckney and Amram Migdal

The case describes Arla’s history, in particular its climate change mitigation efforts, and how it implemented a price incentive system to motivate individual farms to implement scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions mitigation measures and receive a higher milk price. The... View Details

2024
Working Paper

Anti-Political-Establishment Citizens: An In-Depth Study from Two Latin American Countries

By: Loreto Cox and Natalia Garbiras-Diaz

Building on citizens’ animosity towards politicians, anti-establishment parties and candidates have achieved significant electoral success. While recent studies examine the supply-side, we know little about what drives citizens’ anti-establishment sentiments and how... View Details

Keywords: Political Parties; Political Instability; Democracy; Elections; Electoral Behavior; Election Outcomes; Ideology; Political Elections; Policy; Governance; Government and Politics; Social Issues; Society; Perception; Crime and Corruption; Latin America; South America; Colombia; Peru

2024
Working Paper

Black Empowerment and White Mobilization: The Effects of the Voting Rights Act

By: Andrea Bernini, Giovanni Facchini, Marco Tabellini and Cecilia Testa

How did southern whites respond to the 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA)? Leveraging newly digitized data on county-level voter registration by race between 1956 and 1980, and exploiting pre-determined variation in exposure to the federal intervention, we document that... View Details

Keywords: Government Legislation; Race; Behavior; Voting; Prejudice and Bias

Article

Do Citizens’ Preferences Matter? Shaping Legislator Attitudes Towards Peace Agreements

By: Miguel García-Sánchez, Aila M. Matanock and Natalia Garbiras-Díaz

To what extent are legislators, responsible for the implementation of many peace agreements, responsive to citizens’ preferences? Examining the 2016 Colombian peace agreement, we embed an experiment in the 2019 wave of a survey of all the members of Congress. We inform... View Details

Keywords: Legislation; Legislators; Peace Process; Agreements; Govenment; Voters' Interests; Governance; Government and Politics; Voting; Policy; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Latin America; Colombia

May 2023
Article

How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates

By: Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons

We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the... View Details

Keywords: Political Debates; TV Debates; Voting; Political Elections; Decision Choices and Conditions

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April 2023
Case

Strive Asset Management

By: Suraj Srinivasan, Lynn S. Paine and Aldo Sesia

Strive Asset Management, which launched in 2022, was actively targeting several leading U.S. companies in the upcoming 2023 proxy voting season to stop acquiescing to those large asset managers and other institutional shareholders who were pressing those companies to... View Details

Keywords: ESG; Shareholder Activism; Asset Management; Investment Funds; Corporate Governance; Risk Management; Climate Change; Diversity; Equity; Financial Services Industry; United States

March 2023 (Revised September 2023)
Case

Patagonia: 'Earth Is Now Our Only Shareholder'

By: Brian Trelstad, Nien-hê Hsieh, Michael Norris and Susan Pinckney

In September 2022, Yvon Chouinard, the iconoclastic founder of outdoor apparel company Patagonia, announced a new ownership model for his company. Chouinard and his family had held complete control of the company's voting and non-voting stock since its founding 50... View Details

March 2023
Teaching Note

Sustainability Reporting at Dollar Tree, Inc.

By: Suraj Srinivasan and Li-Kuan Ni

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 122-044. The case discusses the ESG strategy of Dollar Tree Inc., a U.S. Fortune 500 company in the deep discount retail industry and the shareholder pressure faced by the company. In 2022, the company faced a shareholder resolution from... View Details

Keywords: ESG; Sustainability; Shareholder Activism; Dollar Tree; Sustainability Reporting; ESG Reporting; Board Of Directors; Shareholder Engagement; GHG; Environmental Accounting; Integrated Corporate Reporting; Trends; Communication; Announcements; Voting; Environmental Management; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Values and Beliefs; Corporate Accountability; Corporate Disclosure; Corporate Governance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy; Reports; Business or Company Management; Risk Management; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Outcome or Result; Strategic Planning; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Situation or Environment; Opportunities; Civil Society or Community; Social Issues; Public Opinion; Strategy; Adaptation; Alignment; Business Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Value Creation; Retail Industry; United States; Virginia

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