Publications

October 2024
Article

How to Use Sales Assessments

By: Frank V. Cespedes

Judging a person’s fit for a sales job is complex, and research shows that managers greatly overrate their ability to predict someone’s performance on the basis of interviews. Hence, using assessments is a growing trend in sales hiring and training. This article... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Sales

2024
Working Paper

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

2024
Working Paper

The Effect of a System for Sharing Best Practices Within Pre-existing Peer Networks

By: Shelley Xin Li and Tatiana Sandino

Peer networks, such as enterprise social networks (ESNs), can facilitate knowledge transfer across employees. However, such systems can also lead to information overload or difficulty in finding useful information. We examine data from a natural field experiment where... View Details

Keywords: Social and Collaborative Networks; Communication Technology; Knowledge Sharing; Sales

2024
Working Paper

Creditor-on-Creditor Violence and Secured Debt Dynamics

By: Samuel Antill, Neng Wang and Zhaoli Jiang

Secured lenders have recently demanded a new condition in distressed debt restructurings: competing secured lenders must lose priority. We model the implications of this “creditor-on-creditor violence” trend. In our dynamic model, secured lenders enjoy higher priority... View Details

Keywords: Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Debt Securities; Conflict and Resolution

SSRN

2024
Chapter

Corporations as the Central Institutions of Society

By: Joseph L. Badaracco

Mark Twain observed that, “Prediction is very difficult—particularly when it involves the future,” and he was right. One way to reduce the risk of becoming an infamous forecaster—like the experts who told us the Internet would quickly collapse, that Apple would never... View Details

Keywords: Trends; Business and Government Relations; Organizations; Power and Influence; Society

June 2024
Article

Going Digital: Implications for Firm Value and Performance

By: Wilbur Chen and Suraj Srinivasan

We examine firm value and performance implications of the growing trend of non-technology companies engaging in digital transformation. We measure digital activities in firms based on the disclosure of digital words in the business description section of 10-Ks. Digital... View Details

Keywords: Digital Technologies; Valuation; Return Predictability; Financial Statement Analysis; Performance; Value; Information Technology

June 2024
Article

Valuing the Societal Impact of Medicines and Other Health Technologies: A User Guide to Current Best Practices

By: Jason Shafrin, Jaehong Kim, Joshua T. Cohen, Louis P. Garrison, Dana A. Goldman, Jalpa A. Doshi, Joshua Krieger, Darius N. Lakdawalla, Peter J. Neumann, Charles E. Phelps, Melanie D. Whittington and Richard Willke

This study argues that value assessment conducted from a societal perspective should rely on the Generalized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (GCEA) framework proposed herein. Recently developed value assessment inventories—such as the Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness’s... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Valuation; Cost vs Benefits; Society

May 2024
Teaching Note

AI Wars

By: Andy Wu and Matt Higgins

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 723-434. In 2024, the world was looking to Google to see what the search giant and long-time putative technical leader in artificial intelligence (AI) would do to compete in the massively hyped technology of generative AI popularized over... View Details

Keywords: AI; Trends; AI and Machine Learning; Public Opinion; Technological Innovation; Competitive Advantage; Technology Industry

May 2024
Article

Financial Innovation in the 21st Century: Evidence from U.S. Patents

By: Josh Lerner, Amit Seru, Nick Short and Yuan Sun

We develop a unique dataset of 24 thousand U.S. finance patents granted over the last two decades to explore the evolution and production of financial innovation. We use machine learning to identify the financial patents and extensively audit the results to ensure... View Details

Keywords: Banking; Investment Banks; Information Technology; Regulation; Patents; Innovation and Invention; Trends

Spring 2024
Other Article

Introduction: International Innovation & American Challenges

By: William C. Kirby

While the United States remains a leader in higher education, the largest systems of higher education today are in India and China, and new colleges and universities spread across the world have become the leading sites of ambitious experimentation.
What are... View Details

Keywords: Innovation Leadership; Trends; Global Range; Education Industry

March 2024 (Revised July 2024)
Case

WeightWatchers: Promoting Weight Health

By: Ranjay Gulati, Cynthia A. Montgomery, Ashley Whillans, Allison Ciechanover and Emily Grandjean

In December 2023, the 60-year-old weight management industry stalwart WeightWatchers announced the launch of WeightWatchers Clinic, which incorporated GLP-1s , a new class of prescription weight-loss medications, into the company’s portfolio of products and mobile app... View Details

Keywords: Business Strategy; Competitive Strategy; Resource Allocation; Diversification; Leadership; Growth and Development Strategy; Technology Industry; Health Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry; United States; New York (city, NY)

March 2024 (Revised May 2024)
Case

Masterpiece for the Masses: The First Art Exchange ARTEX

By: Lauren Cohen, Anastasiya Siroochenko (Siro) and Sophia Pan

Yassir Benjelloun-Touimi, CEO of ARTEX, aspired to marry the world of art and finance. Hoping to promote transparent, fractionalized ownership of renowned artwork, the founder had spent years contemplating the birth of an art stock market. This exchange would allow... View Details

February 2024
Supplement

ReNew (B): A New Direction

By: Gunnar Trumbull and Malini Sen

The global renewables sector was in a slump, but the Indian market was booming. India’s largest renewable electricity generator, ReNew, faced a dilemma: it traded on the Nasdaq in New York, but saw huge opportunity in the Indian market. In response, CEO Sumant Sinha... View Details

Keywords: Energy Generation; Renewable Energy; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Trends; Transformation; Private Ownership; Environmental Sustainability; Mission and Purpose; Expansion; Market Entry and Exit; Energy Industry; Asia; India

2024
Other Unpublished Work

Future Trends in Agile Organizational Design

By: Ranjay Gulati, Franz Wohlgezogen and Emily Tedards

February 2024
Article

Pricing Power in Advertising Markets: Theory and Evidence

By: Matthew Gentzkow, Jesse M. Shapiro, Frank Yang and Ali Yurukoglu

Existing theories of media competition imply that advertisers will pay a lower price in equilibrium to reach consumers who multi-home across competing outlets. We generalize, extend, and test this prediction. We find that television outlets whose viewers watch more... View Details

Keywords: Television Entertainment; Advertising; Residency; Social Media; Price; Media; Age

January 2024
Case

Sprouts Farmers Market

By: Rajiv Lal, Forest L. Reinhardt and Natalie Kindred

Sprouts Farmers Markets (Sprouts) is a Phoenix, Arizona-based chain of 400-plus natural foods stores in 23 U.S. states and $6.4 billion in sales as of 2022. In its product assortment, brand image, and store environment, Sprouts emphasizes freshness, health, innovation,... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Growth and Development Strategy; Brands and Branding; Strategic Planning; Sales; Business Strategy; Expansion; Product Positioning; Marketing Strategy; Competition; Retail Industry; United States; Arizona