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Publications

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    • Faculty Publications  (16)

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    • All HBS Web  (110)
      • Faculty Publications  (16)

      Summary Statistical PerceptionRemove Summary Statistical Perception →

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      • February 2024
      • Article

      Fifty Shades of QE: Robust Evidence

      By: Brian Fabo, Marina Jančoková, Elisabeth Kempf and Ľuboš Pástor
      Fabo et al. (2021) show that papers written by central bank researchers find quantitative easing (QE) to be more effective than papers written by academics. Weale and Wieladek (2022) show that a subset of these results lose statistical significance when OLS regressions... View Details
      Keywords: Quantitative Easing; Research; Mathematical Methods; Perception; Banks and Banking; Body of Literature
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      Fabo, Brian, Marina Jančoková, Elisabeth Kempf, and Ľuboš Pástor. "Fifty Shades of QE: Robust Evidence." Art. 107065. Journal of Banking & Finance 159 (February 2024).
      • January 2024
      • Article

      Subset Scanning for Multi-Trait Analysis Using GWAS Summary Statistics

      By: Rui Cao, Evan Olawsky, Edward McFowland III, Erin Marcotte, Logan Spector and Tianzhong Yang
      Multi-trait analysis has been shown to have greater statistical power than single-trait analysis. Most of the existing multi-trait analysis methods only work with a limited number of traits and usually prioritize high statistical power over identifying relevant traits,... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Health Disorders
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      Cao, Rui, Evan Olawsky, Edward McFowland III, Erin Marcotte, Logan Spector, and Tianzhong Yang. "Subset Scanning for Multi-Trait Analysis Using GWAS Summary Statistics." Bioinformatics 40, no. 1 (January 2024).
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Stories, Statistics and Memory

      By: Thomas Graeber, Christopher Roth and Florian Zimmermann
      For most decisions, we rely on information encountered over the course of days, months or years. We consume this information in various forms, including abstract summaries of multiple data points – statistics – and contextualized anecdotes about individual instances... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Information Types; Media; Cognition and Thinking
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      Graeber, Thomas, Christopher Roth, and Florian Zimmermann. "Stories, Statistics and Memory." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • March 2022 (Revised January 2025)
      • Technical Note

      Exploratory Data Analysis

      By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton
      This module note provides an overview of exploratory data analysis for an introduction to data science course. It begins by defining the term "data", and then describes the different types of data that companies work with (structured v. unstructured, categorical v.... View Details
      Keywords: Data Analysis; Data Science; Statistics; Data Visualization; Exploratory Data Analysis; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis
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      Bojinov, Iavor I., Michael Parzen, and Paul Hamilton. "Exploratory Data Analysis." Harvard Business School Technical Note 622-098, March 2022. (Revised January 2025.)
      • July 19, 2021
      • Article

      Do Most Family Businesses Really Fail by the Third Generation?

      By: Josh Baron and Rob Lachenauer
      Perhaps the most commonly-cited statistic about family businesses is their failure rates. Most articles or speeches about family businesses start with some version of the “three-generation rule,” which suggests that most don’t survive beyond three generations. But that... View Details
      Keywords: Family Business; Success; Perception
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      Baron, Josh, and Rob Lachenauer. "Do Most Family Businesses Really Fail by the Third Generation?" Harvard Business Review (website) (July 19, 2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      First Law of Motion: Influencer Video Advertising on TikTok

      By: Jeremy Yang, Juanjuan Zhang and Yuhan Zhang
      This paper engineers an intuitive feature that is predictive of the causal effect of influencer video advertising on product sales. We propose the concept of m-score, a summary statistic that captures the extent to which a product is advertised in the most engaging... View Details
      Keywords: Influencer Advertising; Video Advertising; Computer Vision; Machine Learning; Advertising; Online Technology
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      Yang, Jeremy, Juanjuan Zhang, and Yuhan Zhang. "First Law of Motion: Influencer Video Advertising on TikTok." Working Paper, March 2021.
      • March 2020
      • Article

      Is This My Group or Not? The Role of Ensemble Coding of Emotional Expressions in Group Categorization

      By: Amit Goldenberg, Timothy D. Sweeny, Emmanuel Shpigel and James J. Gross
      When exposed to others’ emotional responses, people often make rapid decisions as to whether these others are members of their group or not. These group categorization decisions have been shown to be extremely important to understanding group behavior. Yet, despite... View Details
      Keywords: Categorization; Ensemble Coding; Summary Statistical Perception; Social Cognition; Emotions; Perception; Groups and Teams
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      Goldenberg, Amit, Timothy D. Sweeny, Emmanuel Shpigel, and James J. Gross. "Is This My Group or Not? The Role of Ensemble Coding of Emotional Expressions in Group Categorization." Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 149, no. 3 (March 2020).
      • March 2018
      • Article

      Scraped Data and Sticky Prices

      By: Alberto Cavallo
      I use daily prices collected from online retailers in five countries to study the impact of measurement bias on three common price stickiness statistics. Relative to previous results, I find that online prices have longer durations, with fewer price changes close to... View Details
      Keywords: Online Data; Scraped Data; Sticky Prices; Scanner Data; Consumer Price Index; Price; Data and Data Sets
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      Cavallo, Alberto. "Scraped Data and Sticky Prices." Review of Economics and Statistics 100, no. 1 (March 2018): 105–119.
      • Article

      Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
      When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a... View Details
      Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Estimation; Inflation and Deflation; Information; Household; Behavior; Argentina
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2016): 59–108.
      • 2015
      • Chapter

      Negotiations: Statistical Aspects

      By: James K. Sebenius
      'Negotiation analysis' seeks to develop prescriptive theory and useful advice for negotiators and third parties. It generally emphasizes the parties' underlying interests, alternatives to negotiated agreement, approaches to productively manage the inherent tension... View Details
      Keywords: Negotiation Preparation; Negotiation Tactics; Negotiation Participants
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      Sebenius, James K. "Negotiations: Statistical Aspects." In International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences. 2nd ed. Edited by James D. Wright, 430–436. London: Elsevier, 2015.
      • Article

      Learning Through Noticing: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment

      By: Rema Hanna, Sendhil Mullainathan and Joshua Schwartzstein
      We consider a model of technological learning under which people "learn through noticing": they choose which input dimensions to attend to and subsequently learn about from available data. Using this model, we show how people with a great deal of experience may... View Details
      Keywords: Perception; Behavior; Learning
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      Hanna, Rema, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Joshua Schwartzstein. "Learning Through Noticing: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment." Quarterly Journal of Economics 129, no. 3 (August 2014): 1311–1353. (Online Appendix.)
      • Article

      How Well Do Social Ratings Actually Measure Corporate Social Responsibility?

      By: Aaron K. Chatterji, David I. Levine and Michael W. Toffel
      Ratings of corporations' environmental activities and capabilities influence billions of dollars of "socially responsible" investments as well as some consumers, activists, and potential employees. In one of the first studies to assess these ratings, we examine how... View Details
      Keywords: Governance Compliance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Measurement and Metrics; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Performance Effectiveness; Natural Environment; Pollutants
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      Chatterji, Aaron K., David I. Levine, and Michael W. Toffel. "How Well Do Social Ratings Actually Measure Corporate Social Responsibility?" Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 18, no. 1 (Spring 2009): 125–169.
      • 2008
      • Report

      Survey Questionnaire on Environmental Management Practices: Summary of Results by Industry and Practices

      By: Magali Delmas and Michael W. Toffel
      This document provides a summary of the results of a survey on Environmental Management Practices (EMP) conducted by the University of California at Santa Barbara during October and November 2003. The survey was sent to 3255 facilities in 8 industrial sectors: pulp,... View Details
      Keywords: Economic Sectors; Surveys; Management Practices and Processes; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Business and Government Relations; Environmental Sustainability; Non-Governmental Organizations
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      Delmas, Magali, and Michael W. Toffel. "Survey Questionnaire on Environmental Management Practices: Summary of Results by Industry and Practices." Report, 2008. (2008. University of California, Institute for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Research.)
      • spring 2006
      • Article

      All's Fair in Love, War, & Bankruptcy: Corporate Governance Implications of CEO Turnover in Financial Distress

      By: Ethan S. Bernstein
      Prior discussions of management turnover during financial distress have examined bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms as distinct groupings with little overlap. Separately investigating rates of turnover in-bankruptcy and out-of-bankruptcy, without a direct comparison... View Details
      Keywords: CEO Turnover; Bankruptcy; Restructuring; Shadow Of Bankruptcy; Borrowing and Debt; Credit; Financing and Loans; Corporate Governance; Finance; Theory; Markets; United States
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      Bernstein, Ethan S. "All's Fair in Love, War, & Bankruptcy: Corporate Governance Implications of CEO Turnover in Financial Distress." Stanford Journal of Law, Business & Finance 11, no. 2 (spring 2006): 299–325.
      • spring 2006
      • Article

      All's Fair in Love, War & Bankruptcy?: Corporate Governance Implications of CEO Turnover in Financial Distress

      By: Ethan S Bernstein
      Prior discussions of management turnover during financial distress have examined bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms as distinct groupings with little overlap. Separately investigating rates of turnover in-bankruptcy and out-of-bankruptcy, without a direct comparison... View Details
      Keywords: Management Succession; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Corporate Governance
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      Bernstein, Ethan S. "All's Fair in Love, War & Bankruptcy?: Corporate Governance Implications of CEO Turnover in Financial Distress." Stanford Journal of Law, Business & Finance 11, no. 2 (spring 2006): 228–325.
      • August 2004
      • Article

      Inequality and Happiness: Are Europeans and Americans Different?

      By: Rafael Di Tella, Alberto Alesina and Robert MacCulloch
      We study the effect of the level of inequality in society on individual well-being using a total of 123,668 answers to a survey question about “happiness”. We find that individuals have a lower tendency to report themselves happy when inequality is high, even after... View Details
      Keywords: Equality and Inequality; Happiness; Global Range; Local Range; United States; Europe
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      Di Tella, Rafael, Alberto Alesina, and Robert MacCulloch. "Inequality and Happiness: Are Europeans and Americans Different?" Journal of Public Economics 88, nos. 9-10 (August 2004): 2009–42.
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