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  • All HBS Web  (269)
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    • News  (30)
    • Research  (186)
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  • Faculty Publications  (94)
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  • February 2003 (Revised October 2004)
  • Background Note

Antamini Simulation Model

By: Peter Tufano
Antamini is a simulation of the value of an investment project whose outcome is uncertain. This case describes the situation facing a natural resource firm as it contemplates bidding on a copper mine in Peru. The bidder faces uncertainties about the ore deposit size... View Details
Keywords: Valuation; Auctions; Investment; Mining; Mining Industry; Peru
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Tufano, Peter. "Antamini Simulation Model." Harvard Business School Background Note 203-083, February 2003. (Revised October 2004.)
  • February 2007
  • Background Note

BASIX Simulation Model

By: Peter Tufano and Shawn A. Cole
Explains how to use Crystal Ball to simulate the insurance decision in the BASIX case. View Details
Keywords: Insurance; Business Model; Valuation; Decisions; Finance; Insurance Industry
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Tufano, Peter, and Shawn A. Cole. "BASIX Simulation Model." Harvard Business School Background Note 207-108, February 2007.
  • 2021
  • Article

ThreeDWorld: A Platform for Interactive Multi-Modal Physical Simulation

By: Chuang Gan, Jeremy Schwartz, Seth Alter, Damian Mrowca, Martin Schrimpf, James Traer, Julian De Freitas, Jonas Kubilius, Abhishek Bhandwaldar, Nick Haber, Megumi Sano, Kuno Kim, Elias Wang, Michael Lingelbach, Aidan Curtis, Kevin Feigelis, Daniel M. Bear, Dan Gutfreund, David Cox, Antonio Torralba, James J. DiCarlo, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Josh H. McDermott and Daniel L.K. Yamins
We introduce ThreeDWorld (TDW), a platform for interactive multi-modal physical simulation. TDW enables simulation of high-fidelity sensory data and physical interactions between mobile agents and objects in rich 3D environments. Unique properties include: real-time... View Details
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Platform; Interactive Physical Simulation; Virtual Environment; Multi-modal; AI and Machine Learning
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Gan, Chuang, Jeremy Schwartz, Seth Alter, Damian Mrowca, Martin Schrimpf, James Traer, Julian De Freitas, Jonas Kubilius, Abhishek Bhandwaldar, Nick Haber, Megumi Sano, Kuno Kim, Elias Wang, Michael Lingelbach, Aidan Curtis, Kevin Feigelis, Daniel M. Bear, Dan Gutfreund, David Cox, Antonio Torralba, James J. DiCarlo, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Josh H. McDermott, and Daniel L.K. Yamins. "ThreeDWorld: A Platform for Interactive Multi-Modal Physical Simulation." Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS), Datasets and Benchmarks Track 35th (2021).
  • July 2023
  • Article

Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations

By: Dawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner and TzuHwan Seet
In 2001, Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander of the Yale University Investments Office developed a deterministic model for estimating future cash flows and valuations for the Yale endowment’s private equity portfolio. Their model, which is simple and intuitive, is still... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Portfolio; Analytics and Data Science
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Beutler, Dawson, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner, and TzuHwan Seet. "Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations." Journal of Portfolio Management 49, no. 7 (July 2023): 144–158.
  • December 2002
  • Background Note

Simulation of Prices, Rates and Cash Flows (A)

Explicitly considers the most common propagation models for financial variables and explains how to determine the statistical properties of these variables and simulate their future values. Covers arithmetic Brownian motion, geometric Brownian motion, mean-reversion,... View Details
Keywords: Price; Cash Flow
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Shimko, David C. "Simulation of Prices, Rates and Cash Flows (A)." Harvard Business School Background Note 203-056, December 2002.
  • May 2025
  • Article

Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs

By: Pedro Bordalo, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? Motivated by survey data on beliefs about Covid we collected in 2020, we build a model based on the psychology of selective memory. When a person thinks about an event,... View Details
Keywords: Expectations; Memory; COVID-19 Pandemic; Risk and Uncertainty; Cognition and Thinking
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Bordalo, Pedro, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs." Review of Economic Studies 92, no. 3 (May 2025): 1532–1563.
  • January 1984
  • Article

A Simulation Analysis of Alternative Pricing Strategies for Dynamic Environments

By: Robert J. Dolan
Researchers of the strategic implications of the well-known demand (e.g., adoption and diffusion) and supply (e.g., experience effects) dynamics have typically sought analytical solutions. Their success in this has been achieved partly by limiting the richness of the... View Details
Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Price; Mathematical Methods; Supply and Industry
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Dolan, Robert J. "A Simulation Analysis of Alternative Pricing Strategies for Dynamic Environments." Journal of Business 57, no. 1 (January 1984).
  • February 2010
  • Supplement

Real Property Negotiation Game (CW): Excel Model

By: Arthur I. Segel, John Vogel and Justin Seth Ginsburgh
This Excel model is used to analyze the deals made in The Real Property Negotiation Game, which simulates the experience negotiating the sale, purchase, or financing of a property. View Details
Keywords: Property; Negotiation Deal; Sales; Financing and Loans; Mathematical Methods; Real Estate Industry
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Segel, Arthur I., John Vogel, and Justin Seth Ginsburgh. "Real Property Negotiation Game (CW): Excel Model." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 210-703, February 2010.
  • 2013
  • Dissertation

Designing Freemium: A Model of Consumer Usage, Upgrade, and Referral Dynamics

By: Clarence Lee, Vineet Kumar and Sunil Gupta
Abstract. Over the past decade "freemium" (free + premium) has become the dominant business model among internet start-ups for its ability to acquire and monetize a large install-base with limited marketing resources. Freemium is a hybrid strategy where a firm offers... View Details
Keywords: Discrete-Continuous Choice Dynamic Structural Models; Bayesian Estimation; Word-of-Mouth; Digital Services; Freemium; Entrepreneurship; Business Model; Motivation and Incentives; Marketing Strategy; Internet and the Web; Consumer Behavior; Marketing Reference Programs; Business Startups
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Lee, Clarence, Vineet Kumar, and Sunil Gupta. "Designing Freemium: A Model of Consumer Usage, Upgrade, and Referral Dynamics." Diss., Harvard Business School, 2013. (Job Market Paper.)
  • May 2011
  • Article

Nonsimultaneous Chains and Dominos in Kidney Paired Donation—Revisited

By: Itai Ashlagi, Duncan S. Gilchrist, Alvin E. Roth and Michael A. Rees
Since 2008 kidney exchange in America has grown in part from the incorporation of non-directed donors in transplant chains rather than simple exchanges. It is controversial whether these chains should be performed simultaneously ("domino paired donation," DPD) or... View Details
Keywords: ABO Incompatibility; Allosensitization; Paired Kidney Exchange; Regional Sharing; Simulation Models; Transplantation Policy; Health Care and Treatment; Supply Chain; Risk and Uncertainty; Logistics; United States
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Ashlagi, Itai, Duncan S. Gilchrist, Alvin E. Roth, and Michael A. Rees. "Nonsimultaneous Chains and Dominos in Kidney Paired Donation—Revisited." American Journal of Transplantation 11, no. 5 (May 2011): 984–994.
  • Winter 2021
  • Article

Making Economics More Useful: How Technological Eclecticism Could Help

By: Amar Bhidé
Keynes thought it would be ‘splendid’ if economists became more like dentists. Disciplinary economics has instead become more like physics in focusing on concise, universal propositions verified through decisive tests. This focus, I argue, limits the practical... View Details
Keywords: Economic Methodology; Simulations; Banking; Regulation; Judgment; Economics; Banks and Banking
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Bhidé, Amar. "Making Economics More Useful: How Technological Eclecticism Could Help." Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 33, no. 1 (Winter 2021): 122–133.
  • 2020
  • Article

Making Economics More Useful: How Technological Eclecticism Could Help

By: Amar Bhidé
Keynes thought it would be ‘splendid’ if economists became more like dentists. Disciplinary economics has instead become more like physics in focusing on concise, universal propositions verified through decisive tests. This focus, I argue, limits the practical utility... View Details
Keywords: Economic Methodology; Simulations; Banking; Regulation; Judgment; Economics; Policy
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Bhidé, Amar. "Making Economics More Useful: How Technological Eclecticism Could Help." Applied Economics 52, no. 26 (2020).
  • June 2023 (Revised September 2023)
  • Simulation

Managing the Customer Journey Marketing Simulation: Adobe's Data-Driven Operating Model (DDOM)

By: Sunil Gupta, Rajiv Lal and Celine Chammas
Adobe started monitoring Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), one of its primary metrics, when it shifted from selling its software in a box to selling the software as a subscription-based cloud service. They wanted to know when, where, and how much to invest in marketing.... View Details
Keywords: Customer Acquisition; Customer Journey; Marketing Strategy; Marketing; Customer Focus and Relationships; Budgets and Budgeting
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Gupta, Sunil, Rajiv Lal, and Celine Chammas. "Managing the Customer Journey Marketing Simulation: Adobe's Data-Driven Operating Model (DDOM)." Harvard Business School Simulation 523-714, June 2023. (Revised September 2023.) (Click here to purchase the Simulation.)
  • May 2018
  • Article

Nowcasting Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change

By: Edward L. Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim and Michael Luca
Data from digital platforms have the potential to improve our understanding of gentrification and enable new measures of how neighborhoods change in close to real time. Combining data on businesses from Yelp with data on gentrification from the Census, Federal Housing... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods; Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, And Changes; Geographic Location; Local Range; Transition; Analytics and Data Science; Measurement and Metrics; Economic Growth; Forecasting and Prediction
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Glaeser, Edward L., Hyunjin Kim, and Michael Luca. "Nowcasting Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change." AEA Papers and Proceedings 108 (May 2018): 77–82.
  • November 2024 (Revised January 2025)
  • Case

Balancing Impact: Modeling the Future at British International Investment

By: Shawn Cole and Jonah Zahnd
In 2022, British International Investment (BII), the £8.1 billion development finance arm of the British government, implemented a new impact measurement system called the Impact Score to align its financial and impact objectives systematically. The tool was designed... View Details
Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Measurement and Metrics; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Alignment; United Kingdom
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Cole, Shawn, and Jonah Zahnd. "Balancing Impact: Modeling the Future at British International Investment." Harvard Business School Case 225-047, November 2024. (Revised January 2025.)
  • January 2010
  • Article

Open vs. Closed Innovation: A Model of Discovery and Divergence

By: Esteve Almirall and Ramon Casadesus-Masanell
When is open innovation superior to closed innovation? Through a formal simulation model, we show that an open approach to innovation allows the firm to discover combinations of product features that would be hard to envision under integration. However, when partners... View Details
Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Partners and Partnerships; Goals and Objectives; Cost vs Benefits; Integration; Product
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Almirall, Esteve, and Ramon Casadesus-Masanell. "Open vs. Closed Innovation: A Model of Discovery and Divergence." Academy of Management Review 35, no. 1 (January 2010): 27–47.
  • 1994
  • Article

Three-dimensional Finite Element Modeling of a Cervical Vertebra: An Investigation of Burst Fracture Mechanism

By: Kevin J. Bozic, J H Keyak, H B Skinner, H U Bueff and David Bradford
Finite element modeling was used to study the mechanical behavior of a cervical vertebra under axial compressive loading. A three-dimensional (3-D) finite element (FE) model of a mid-cervical vertebra using inhomogeneous material properties was generated from... View Details
Keywords: Performance Expectations; Strength and Weakness; Health; Mathematical Methods; Health Industry
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Bozic, Kevin J., J H Keyak, H B Skinner, H U Bueff, and David Bradford. "Three-dimensional Finite Element Modeling of a Cervical Vertebra: An Investigation of Burst Fracture Mechanism." Journal of Spinal Disorders & Techniques 7, no. 2 (1994): 102–110.
  • Article

Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Identifying and Exploring Firm Heterogeneous Effects

By: Juan Alcácer, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk and Gonçalo Pacheco-de-Almeida
Strategy aims at understanding the differential effects of firms’ actions on performance. However, standard regression models estimate only the average effects of these actions across firms. Our paper discusses how random coefficient models (RCMs) may generate new... View Details
Keywords: Strategy; Research; Competitive Advantage; Competitive Strategy; Performance
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Alcácer, Juan, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk, and Gonçalo Pacheco-de-Almeida. "Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Identifying and Exploring Firm Heterogeneous Effects." Strategy Science 3, no. 3 (September 2018): 481–553.
  • 18 Jun 2024
  • Research & Ideas

Central Banks Missed Inflation Red Flags. This Pricing Model Could Help.

environments.” If central banks had used economic models that account for variations in the speed of firm’s pricing decisions rather than their traditional forecasting tools, policymakers might have detected rising inflation sooner,... View Details
Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Financial Services; Banking
  • March 2022
  • Article

Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models

By: Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov
Researchers regularly use synthetic control methods for estimating causal effects when a sub-set of units receive a single persistent treatment, and the rest are unaffected by the change. In many applications, however, units not assigned to treatment are nevertheless... View Details
Keywords: Causal Inference; Partial Interference; Synthetic Controls; Bayesian Structural Time Series; Mathematical Methods
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Menchetti, Fiammetta, and Iavor Bojinov. "Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models." Annals of Applied Statistics 16, no. 1 (March 2022): 414–435.
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