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Publications
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- July 2025
- Case
ICARE: Frontline Leadership at Michelin
By: Hubert Joly and Emilie Billaud
In 2025, Michelin CEO Florent Menegaux reflected on the company’s transformation since taking the helm in 2019. Amid a volatile global landscape marked by inflation, rising competition, and geopolitical and sustainability pressures, Michelin had achieved strong... View Details
Keywords: Human Capital; Transformation; Management Practices and Processes; Managerial Roles; Organizational Culture; Leadership; Competency and Skills; Global Strategy; Multinational Firms and Management; Human Resources; Compensation and Benefits; Recruitment; Retention; Employee Relationship Management; Working Conditions; Leading Change; Growth and Development Strategy; Groups and Teams; Motivation and Incentives; Well-being; Auto Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Europe; China; United States
- 2025
- Working Paper
Rethinking Volume
By: Philippe van der Beck, Lorenzo Bretscher and Zhiyu Julie Fu
Gross trading volumes in financial markets are large and far exceed return volatility. In contrast, “net volume”—trading from persistent portfolio reallocations—is substantially lower, as it excludes transitory round-trip trades. This observation reveals a fundamental... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates
By: Max Miller, James D. Paron and Jessica Wachter
Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We propose an explanation... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Heterogeneous Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations
By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
This paper examines the role of heterogeneous investor beliefs in explaining stock market puzzles. Using survey data, we show that individual investors and investment professionals, such as equity analysts and strategists, form distinct beliefs. These groups rely on... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Cash Flow Volatility, Return Predictability and Stock Price Decompositions: Why You Should Scale Prices by Trend Cash Flows
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
We address two inconvenient facts in asset pricing: (i) valuation ratios are often more related to future cash flows than to returns, and (ii) they mostly fail to predict returns. We show that these issues arise because stock prices are scaled by cash flows that... View Details
- June 2025
- Case
TfL Pension Fund and the 2022 Gilt Market Crisis
By: Emil N. Siriwardane, Vincent Dessain, Emer Moloney and Carlota Moniz
On September 27, 2022, Padmesh Shukla, CIO of the Transport for London (TfL) Pension Fund, was keeping a careful eye on the turmoil in the U.K. sovereign bond (or gilt) market. When the new government announced the largest tax cuts the U.K. had seen in half a century,... View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Assets; Asset Management; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Capital Markets; Equity; Financial Liquidity; Financial Instruments; Financial Strategy; Interest Rates; Governing and Advisory Boards; Crisis Management; Resource Allocation; Investment; Financial Services Industry; United Kingdom; England; London; Europe
- 2025
- Working Paper
Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing
By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
To address the excess volatility puzzle – the excessive movements in stock prices – researchers often study movements in valuation ratios. However, we demonstrate that movements in valuation ratios based on fundamental measures with high transitory volatility, such as... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
An Empirical Examination of Business Climate Alliances: Effective and/or Harmful?
By: Matteo Gasparini and Peter Tufano
This research studies business alliances that seek to address climate change, offering empirical evidence to address claims advanced by alliance supporters and critics. We study eleven major alliances mostly focused on financial services firms and 424 major... View Details
Keywords: Antitrust; Climate Change; Financial Institutions; Competition; Network Effects; Alliances
- Working Paper
Index Rebalancing and Stock Market Composition: Do Indexes Time the Market?
By: Marco Sammon and John J. Shim
Value-weighted indexes must rebalance in response to stock market composition changes, e.g., issuance, buybacks, and IPOs. In doing so, existing index funds implicitly engage in market timing. Index funds’ long-short rebalancing portfolios have a -3.5% annual return... View Details
- May 2025
- Case
RTX's Lifetime Income Strategy: Shaping the Future of Retirement
By: Daniel Green, Luis M. Viceira and Sarah Mehta
Set in 2024, this case explores the Lifetime Income Strategy (LIS), a novel retirement product launched by aerospace and defense company RTX in 2012. Aiming to embed the security of a traditional pension within a 401(k) plan, the LIS allowed participants to secure a... View Details
- 2025
- Chapter
Marjorie Yang Mun Tak 楊梅德：Entrepreneur and Innovator
By: William C. Kirby
BOOK ABSTRACT:
Chinese Encounters with America tells the stories of twelve women and men whose American experiences transformed their lives and influenced China’s trajectory, with a particular focus on the period after Beijing and Washington established... View Details
Chinese Encounters with America tells the stories of twelve women and men whose American experiences transformed their lives and influenced China’s trajectory, with a particular focus on the period after Beijing and Washington established... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Race, Rental Yields, and Housing Decay in Manhattan
By: Tom Nicholas and Christophe Spaenjers
We develop a new dataset on real estate transactions in Manhattan (1912–1939), linked to federal Census records (1930 and 1940) and property images used for tax assessment purposes (around 1940 and 1980). We analyze investor returns and incentives to maintain... View Details
- May 2025
- Case
The Micro-Family Office: Aamir Rehman
By: Lauren Cohen and Sophia Pan
With a successful career and strong academic credentials, Aamir Rehman sought to design a life grounded in autonomy. For him, this meant serving on boards, continuing his professorship, and ensuring a secure and comfortable life for his family. While he didn’t possess... View Details
Keywords: Family Office; Family And Friends; Trends And Opportunities; Wealth Management; Family Business; Financial Strategy; Personal Finance; Investment Portfolio; Private Equity; Organizational Design; Family and Family Relationships; Happiness; Satisfaction; Balance and Stability; Human Capital; Compensation and Benefits; Economy; Trends; Business Model; Asset Management; Financial Management; New Jersey; United States
- 2025
- Working Paper
Generative AI Use by Capital Market Information Intermediaries: Evidence from Seeking Alpha
By: Mark Bradshaw, Chenyang Ma, Benjamin Yost and Yuan Zou
We study the use of generative AI for firm-specific financial analysis on the Seeking Alpha platform. We find that, after the initial launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, the share of AI-generated articles rose sharply to 13.4% of all articles, then declined in late... View Details
- April 2025
- Article
An Anatomy of Crypto-Enabled Cybercrimes
By: Will Cong, Campbell Harvey, Daniel Rabetti and Zong-Yu Wu
The advent of cryptocurrencies and digital assets holds the promise of improving financial systems by offering cheap, quick, and secure transfer of value. However, it also opens up new payment channels for cybercrimes. Assembling a diverse set of public on- and... View Details
- April 2025
- Article
Serving with a Smile on Airbnb: Analyzing the Economic Returns and Behavioral Underpinnings of the Host’s Smile
By: Shunyuan Zhang, Elizabeth Friedman, Kannan Srinivasan, Ravi Dhar and Xupin Zhang
Non-informational cues, such as facial expressions, can significantly influence judgments and interpersonal impressions. While past research has explored how smiling affects business outcomes in offline or in-store contexts, relatively less is known about how smiling... View Details
- April 2025
- Article
The Allocation of Socially Responsible Capital
By: Daniel Green and Benjamin N. Roth
Portfolio allocation decisions increasingly incorporate social values. We develop a tractable framework to study how competition between investors to own socially valuable assets affects social welfare. Relative to the most common social-investing strategies, we... View Details
- April 2025
- Article
The Disappearing Index Effect
By: Robin Greenwood and Marco Sammon
The abnormal return associated with a stock being added to the S&P 500 has fallen from an average
of 7.4% in the 1990s to 0.3% over the past decade. This has occurred despite a significant increase in the
share of stock market assets linked to the index. A similar... View Details
- April 2025
- Article
The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates
In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
With a Little Help from My Family: Informal Startup Financing
By: Brian K. Baik, Johan Ludvig S. Karlsen and Katja Kisseleva
Using Norwegian administrative data, we identify family equity investments in startups
and examine their effects on investor returns and firm behavior. Informal investors
earn lower returns than external individuals, and the firms they back are less
likely to secure... View Details