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- 2022
- Working Paper
Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges... View Details
Keywords: Overreaction; Rational Expectations; Macroeconomics; Market Participation; Social Psychology
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30356, August 2022.
- summer 1983
- Journal Article
Dynamic Factor Demands Under Rational Expectations
By: J. J. Rotemberg and Robert Pindyck
Rotemberg, J. J., and Robert Pindyck. "Dynamic Factor Demands Under Rational Expectations." Scandinavian Journal of Economics (summer 1983).
- Article
Variance-Minimizing Monetary Policies with Lagged Price Adjustment and Rational Expectations
By: Jerry R. Green and Seppo Honkapohja
This paper considers a macroeconomic model with rational expectations in which prices are incompletely flexible. Markets therefore fail to clear. In such a model monetary policy is not neutral. The variance of real and nominal quantities and interest rates is sensitive... View Details
Green, Jerry R., and Seppo Honkapohja. "Variance-Minimizing Monetary Policies with Lagged Price Adjustment and Rational Expectations." European Economic Review 20, nos. 1-3 (January 1983): 123–141.
- Article
New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By: K. A. Froot
Froot, K. A. "New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates." Journal of Finance 44, no. 2 (June 1989): 283–305. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2363, March 1990. Reprinted in Behavioral Finance, edited by H. Shefrin, part of the International Library of Critical Writings in Financial Economics, edited by R. Roll. London: Edward Elgar, 2000.)
- May 1984
- Article
Interpreting the Statistical Failures of Some Rational Expectations Macroeconomic Models
By: J. J. Rotemberg
Keywords: Macroeconomics
Rotemberg, J. J. "Interpreting the Statistical Failures of Some Rational Expectations Macroeconomic Models." American Economic Review 74, no. 2 (May 1984): 188–193.
- 2014
- Article
Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer
We analyze time-series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns." Review of Financial Studies 27, no. 3 (March 2014): 714–746. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- December 1989
- Article
On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations
By: K. A. Froot and T. Ito
This paper examines whether short-term exchange rate expectations 'overreact' by comparing them with long-term expectations. We develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons. The restrictions impose consistency, a property... View Details
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
Froot, K. A., and T. Ito. "On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations." Journal of International Money and Finance 8, no. 4 (December 1989): 487–510. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2577, May 1988.)
- 1996
- Thesis
Limits on Interest Rate Rules in Macroeconomic Models Governed by Price Stickiness and Rational Expectations
By: William R. Kerr
Kerr, William R. "Limits on Interest Rate Rules in Macroeconomic Models Governed by Price Stickiness and Rational Expectations." Thesis, University of Virginia, 1996.
- September 2004
- Article
Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases)
Rational agents with differing priors tend to be overoptimistic about their chances of success. In particular, an agent who tries to choose the action that is most likely to succeed, is more likely to choose an action of which he overestimated, rather than... View Details
Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Decision Choices and Conditions; Performance Expectations; Outcome or Result; Opportunities; Risk and Uncertainty; Failure; Success; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Personal Characteristics; Values and Beliefs; Ethics
Van den Steen, Eric J. "Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases)." American Economic Review 94, no. 4 (September 2004): 1141–1151.
- September 1992
- Article
Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation
By: Kenneth Froot, David S. Scharfstein and Jeremy Stein
Froot, Kenneth, David S. Scharfstein, and Jeremy Stein. "Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation." Journal of Finance 47, no. 4 (September 1992): 1461–1484. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 3250, February 1990.)
- March 1987
- Article
Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations
By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Asset Pricing; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Analytics and Data Science; Finance
Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations." American Economic Review 77, no. 1 (March 1987): 133–153. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 1672.)
- December 1986
- Article
Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists
By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Asset Pricing; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; History; Performance Expectations; Economics; United States
Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists." Special Issue Economic Record (December 1986): 24–38. (Reprinted in Exchange Rate Economics, vol. I, edited by R. MacDonald and M. Taylor, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, U.K., 1992.)
- September 1987
- Article
Short-term and Long-term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from Survey Data
By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Asset Pricing; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Japan; United States
Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Short-term and Long-term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from Survey Data." Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 1 (September 1987): 249–274. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2216, April 1987.)
- July 2017
- Article
Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in... View Details
Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Survey Experiment; Rational Inattention; Supermarkets; Macroeconomics; Household; Inflation and Deflation; Policy
Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 9, no. 3 (July 2017): 1–35.
- 1988
- Chapter
Explaining the Demand for Dollars: International Rates of Return, and the Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists
By: Jeffrey A. Frankel and Kenneth A. Froot
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Macroeconomics
Frankel, Jeffrey A., and Kenneth A. Froot. "Explaining the Demand for Dollars: International Rates of Return, and the Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists." Chap. 2 in Macroeconomics, Agriculture, and Exchange Rates, edited by R. Chambers and P. Paarlberg, 25–80. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1988.
- December 1991
- Article
Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices
By: Kenneth A. Froot and M. Obstfeld
Keywords: Rational Expectations; Equities; Fundamentals; Behavioral Finance; Price Bubble; Stocks; Information; Asset Pricing
Froot, Kenneth A., and M. Obstfeld. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices." American Economic Review 81, no. 5 (December 1991): 1189–1214. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 3091, March 1992. Reprinted in Speculation and Financial Markets, edited by M. Taylor and L. Gallagher. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2001.)
- 2022
- Working Paper
Heterogeneity of Gain-Loss Attitudes and Expectations-Based Reference Points
By: Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Thomas Graeber, Alex Kellogg and Charles Sprenger
Existing tests of reference-dependent preferences assume universal loss aversion. This paper examines heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes, and explores its implications for identifying models of the reference point. In two experimental settings we measure gain-loss... View Details
Keywords: Reference-dependent Preferences; Rational Expectations; Personal Equilibrium; Endowment Effect; Expectations-based Reference Points
Campos-Mercade, Pol, Lorenz Goette, Thomas Graeber, Alex Kellogg, and Charles Sprenger. "Heterogeneity of Gain-Loss Attitudes and Expectations-Based Reference Points." Working Paper, August 2022.
- 1990
- Chapter
Chartists, Fundamentalists, and the Demand for Dollars
By: Jeffrey A. Frankel and Kenneth A. Froot
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Macroeconomics
Frankel, Jeffrey A., and Kenneth A. Froot. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and the Demand for Dollars." In Private Behaviour and Government Policy in Interdependent Economies, edited by Anthony Courakis and Mark Taylor, 73–128. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1990. (Reprinted in Greek Economic Review 10 (June 1988): 49-102; and translated in Cuadernos Economicos de ICE, No. 38 (1988): 195-242.)
- 1986
- Article
The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalists and Chartists
By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
- Article
Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?
By: K. A. Froot and J. Frankel
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
Froot, K. A., and J. Frankel. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?" Quarterly Journal of Economics 104, no. 1 (February 1989): 139–161. (Revision of "Findings of Forward Discount Bias Interpreted in Light of Exchange Rate Survey Data," NBER Working Paper No. 1963 and Sloan Working Paper No. 1906-87, August 1987. Reprinted in Advances in Behavioral Finance, edited by Richard Thaler. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1993: 359-382 and in Speculation and Financial Markets, edited by M. Taylor and L. Gallagher. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2001.)