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Publications

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      • Faculty Publications  (72)

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      • 2024
      • Article

      Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos
      We survey the growing literature emphasizing the role that supply-and-demand forces play in shaping the term structure of interest rates. Our starting point is the Vayanos and Vila (2009, 2021) model of the term structure of default-free bond yields, which we present... View Details
      Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Interest Rates; Bonds; Financial Markets
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel Hanson, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." Annual Review of Financial Economics 16 (2024): 115–151.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Primary Capital Market Transactions and Index Funds

      By: Marco Sammon and Chris Murray
      We document the effects of mechanical buying by CRSP-index-tracking funds on post-IPO returns and IPO deal structure. Leveraging a difference-in-differences-style design built on a 2017 CRSP rule change, we find that expected index fund demand leads fast track IPOs to... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Funds; Initial Public Offering; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Financial Markets
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      Sammon, Marco, and Chris Murray. "Primary Capital Market Transactions and Index Funds." Working Paper, August 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Does the Case for Private Equity Still Hold?

      By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Philipp Chvanov
      Private Equity (“PE”) received a 10-fold increase in capital flows since the Great Financial Crisis (“GFC”) Investors sought higher nominal returns relative to those they could obtain in the public capital markets. This paper questions the fundamental assumptions... View Details
      Keywords: Private Equity; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Financial Markets
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      Lietz, Nori Gerardo, and Philipp Chvanov. "Does the Case for Private Equity Still Hold?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-066, January 2024.
      • November 2023
      • Case

      Chai Point

      By: Rembrand Koning, Daniel W. Elfenbein and Kanika Jain
      Chai Point was an Indian food and beverage company focused on chai. It started in 2010 as a retail store network but soon expanded to corporate offices by developing an IoT-enabled automatic tea and filter coffee machine. By 2023, Chai Point had 170 stores and 5000... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Food; Resource Allocation; Vertical Integration; Expansion; Food and Beverage Industry; Technology Industry; Retail Industry; India
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      Koning, Rembrand, Daniel W. Elfenbein, and Kanika Jain. "Chai Point." Harvard Business School Case 724-418, November 2023.
      • October 2023 (Revised March 2024)
      • Case

      KOKO Networks: Bridging Energy Transition and Affordability with Carbon Financing

      By: George Serafeim, Siko Sikochi and Namrata Arora
      The problem was massive: two million hectares of African forests were lost annually to charcoal production for cooking, an area equivalent to 13 times Greater London, resulting in one billion tons of carbon emissions yearly. At the same time, an estimated 700,000... View Details
      Keywords: Clean Tech; Digital; Carbon Credits; Carbon Offsetting; Climate Change; Entrepreneurship; Energy Sources; Environmental Sustainability; Health; Market Design; Business Startups; Transition; Environmental Regulation; Policy; Energy Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Africa; Kenya; Rwanda
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      Serafeim, George, Siko Sikochi, and Namrata Arora. "KOKO Networks: Bridging Energy Transition and Affordability with Carbon Financing." Harvard Business School Case 124-022, October 2023. (Revised March 2024.)
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Global Supply Chains: The Looming 'Great Reallocation'

      By: Laura Alfaro and Davin Chor
      Global supply chains have come under unprecedented stress as a result of U.S.-China trade tensions, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical shocks. We document shifts in the pattern of U.S. participation in global value chains over the last four decades, in terms of... View Details
      Keywords: Supply Chain; International Relations; Trade; Globalized Markets and Industries
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Davin Chor. "Global Supply Chains: The Looming 'Great Reallocation'." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-012, August 2023. (in proceedings Jackson Hole Symposium, 2023 (also NBER WP 31661). See feature in NBER Digest, Nov (2023): Economics, Politics, and the Evolution of Global Supply Chains.)
      • 2023
      • Chapter

      Inflation and Misallocation in New Keynesian Models

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Francesco Lippi and Ken Miyahara
      The New Keynesian framework implies that sluggish price adjustment results in a distorted allocation of resources. We use a simple model to quantify these unobservable distortions, using data that depict the price-setting behavior of firms, specifically the frequency... View Details
      Keywords: Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Price; Analytics and Data Science; Cost
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Francesco Lippi, and Ken Miyahara. "Inflation and Misallocation in New Keynesian Models." In ECB Forum on Central Banking 26-28 June 2023, Sintra, Portugal: Macroeconomic Stabilisation in a Volatile Inflation Environment. European Central Bank, 2023.
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Turning Points in Inflation: A Structural Breaks Approach with Micro Data

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta
      We introduce a novel methodology for detecting inflation turning points that combines high-frequency, disaggregated price data with standard structural break techniques to provide policymakers with more precise and timely signals of inflation dynamics. The methodology... View Details
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Global Range; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Analysis; Price
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta. "Turning Points in Inflation: A Structural Breaks Approach with Micro Data." Working Paper, May 2025. (Preliminary draft.)
      • March–April 2023
      • Article

      Case Study: Should a Dollar Store Raise Prices to Keep Up with Inflation?

      By: Jill Avery and Marco Bertini
      How should a dollar store maintain its brand and price position in the marketplace in the face of rising inflation? Is holding a $1.00 price point still viable in today's marketplace? In this fictional case, managers face inflationary pressures and must decide whether... View Details
      Keywords: Pricing; Pricing Strategy; Retailing; Discount Retailing; Discount Store; Marketing; Marketing Strategy; Brands and Branding; Inflation and Deflation; Retail Industry; United States
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      Avery, Jill, and Marco Bertini. "Case Study: Should a Dollar Store Raise Prices to Keep Up with Inflation?" Harvard Business Review 101, no. 2 (March–April 2023): 140–144.
      • September 2022 (Revised May 2024)
      • Case

      Navya: Steering toward a Driverless Future

      By: Julian De Freitas, Elie Ofek, Shaun Ingledew and Tonia Labruyere
      In 2022, Sophie Desormière arrived at French roboshuttle producer Navya, tasked with charting a new course in a challenging sector. The company, which had recently listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, was burning through cash reserves and needed to transform the promise... View Details
      Keywords: Autonomous Vehicles; Market Entry and Exit; Opportunities; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Consumer Behavior; Business Model; Auto Industry; Transportation Industry; France; United States
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      De Freitas, Julian, Elie Ofek, Shaun Ingledew, and Tonia Labruyere. "Navya: Steering toward a Driverless Future." Harvard Business School Case 523-046, September 2022. (Revised May 2024.)
      • September 10, 2022
      • Article

      NFT Sales: Clearing the Market, Avoiding Gas Wars

      By: Scott Duke Kominers and Tim Roughgarden
      Instead of letting the market decide the price for their primary sale offerings, many NFT projects choose to initially sell their NFTs at prices below the market-clearing level. But what happens when market designers trade off efficiency for equity; or when demand far... View Details
      Keywords: Blockchain; Crypto Economy; Cryptocurrency; NFTs; Auctions; Market Design; Price
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      Kominers, Scott Duke, and Tim Roughgarden. "NFT Sales: Clearing the Market, Avoiding Gas Wars." a16zcrypto.com (September 10, 2022).
      • June 2022 (Revised August 2022)
      • Case

      Dollar Tree: Breaking the Buck

      By: Jill Avery and Marco Bertini
      For thirty-five years, Dollar Tree, a discount retail chain selling general merchandise, had held its fixed price point steady, pricing all of its household items, food, stationery, books, seasonal items, gifts, toys, and clothing that made up its diverse and... View Details
      Keywords: Retailing; Pricing; Pricing Strategy; Discount Retailing; Discount Store; Marketing; Brands and Branding; Marketing Strategy; Price; Inflation and Deflation; Consumer Behavior; Retail Industry; United States
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      Avery, Jill, and Marco Bertini. "Dollar Tree: Breaking the Buck." Harvard Business School Case 522-091, June 2022. (Revised August 2022.)
      • May 2022
      • Supplement

      Maestro Pizza (B): The Competition Awakens

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Fares Khrais
      Maestro pizza opened its first store in 2013 after its founder, Khalid Al Omran, recognized an opportunity in Saudi Arabia to offer high quality pizza at affordable prices. The business grew rapidly and under the radar at first, but soon enough caught the attention of... View Details
      Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Competition; Market Entry and Exit; Emerging Markets; Business Startups; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Product Positioning; Disruption; Disruptive Innovation; Advertising; Advertising Campaigns; Social Media; Forecasting and Prediction; Crisis Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Brands and Branding; Product Development; Production; Service Delivery; Business Growth and Maturation; Financial Statements; Cost Management; Analysis; Quality; Performance Consistency; Customer Satisfaction; Profit; Family Ownership; Food and Beverage Industry; Saudi Arabia; Middle East
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, and Fares Khrais. "Maestro Pizza (B): The Competition Awakens." Harvard Business School Supplement 722-400, May 2022.
      • May 2022
      • Supplement

      Maestro Pizza (C): Taking the Fight Outside

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Fares Khrais
      Maestro pizza opened its first store in 2013 after its founder, Khalid Al Omran, recognized an opportunity in Saudi Arabia to offer high quality pizza at affordable prices. The business grew rapidly and under the radar at first, but soon enough caught the attention of... View Details
      Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Competition; Market Entry and Exit; Emerging Markets; Business Startups; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Product Positioning; Disruption; Disruptive Innovation; Advertising; Advertising Campaigns; Social Media; Forecasting and Prediction; Crisis Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Brands and Branding; Product Development; Production; Service Delivery; Business Growth and Maturation; Financial Statements; Cost Management; Analysis; Quality; Performance Consistency; Customer Satisfaction; Profit; Family Ownership; Food and Beverage Industry; Middle East; Saudi Arabia
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, and Fares Khrais. "Maestro Pizza (C): Taking the Fight Outside." Harvard Business School Supplement 722-401, May 2022.
      • May 2022
      • Case

      Maestro Pizza: Coming in Hot!

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Fares Khrais
      Maestro Pizza opened its first store in 2013 after its founder, Khalid Al Omran, recognized an opportunity in Saudi Arabia to offer high quality pizza at affordable prices. The business grew rapidly and under the radar at first, but soon enough caught the attention of... View Details
      Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Competition; Market Entry and Exit; Emerging Markets; Business Startups; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Product Positioning; Disruption; Disruptive Innovation; Advertising; Advertising Campaigns; Social Media; Forecasting and Prediction; Crisis Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Brands and Branding; Product Development; Production; Service Delivery; Business Growth and Maturation; Financial Statements; Cost Management; Analysis; Quality; Performance Consistency; Customer Satisfaction; Profit; Family Ownership; Food and Beverage Industry; Middle East; Saudi Arabia
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, and Fares Khrais. "Maestro Pizza: Coming in Hot!" Harvard Business School Case 722-399, May 2022.
      • April 2022
      • Article

      Predictable Financial Crises

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen
      Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Journal of Finance 77, no. 2 (April 2022): 863–921.
      • October 2021 (Revised May 2023)
      • Case

      Project Maji: Pricing Water in Sub-Saharan Africa

      By: Elie Ofek, Marco Bertini, Dilyana Karadzhova Botha and Esel Çekin
      In July 2021, Sunil Lalvani, founder and CEO of Project Maji, a non-profit social enterprise headquartered in Dubai that had already provided sustainable, clean water solutions to 80,000 people living in rural communities across Ghana and Kenya, was facing an important... View Details
      Keywords: Water; Pricing; Nonprofit Organizations; Projects; Price; Decision Making; Social Enterprise; Growth and Development Strategy; Equity; Green Technology; Social and Collaborative Networks; Africa; Dubai
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      Ofek, Elie, Marco Bertini, Dilyana Karadzhova Botha, and Esel Çekin. "Project Maji: Pricing Water in Sub-Saharan Africa." Harvard Business School Case 522-043, October 2021. (Revised May 2023.)
      • September 2021
      • Case

      Worldreader: Helping Readers Build a Better World

      By: Marco Bertini, Elie Ofek and Julia Kelley
      Founded in 2010, Worldreader was an international nonprofit organization that promoted reading to children around the world. For many years, Worldreader distributed e-readers to under-resourced communities and funded its operations primarily through philanthropic... View Details
      Keywords: Subscription Model; Price; Financial Strategy; Education; Early Childhood Education; Learning; Geography; Geographic Scope; Global Range; Goals and Objectives; Marketing; Marketing Strategy; Markets; Organizations; Mission and Purpose; Social Enterprise; Non-Governmental Organizations; Nonprofit Organizations; Society; Social Issues; Strategy; Commercialization; Expansion; Segmentation; Education Industry; Africa; Asia; Latin America; Europe; North and Central America; South America
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      Bertini, Marco, Elie Ofek, and Julia Kelley. "Worldreader: Helping Readers Build a Better World." Harvard Business School Case 522-003, September 2021.
      • February 2021 (Revised May 2021)
      • Case

      SafeGraph: Selling Data as a Service

      By: Ramana Nanda, Abhishek Nagaraj and Allison Ciechanover
      Set in January 2021, the CEO of SafeGraph, a four-year-old startup that sold Data as a Service, looked to the future. His aim was to become the most trusted source for data about a physical place. The company provided points of interest (POI) and foot traffic data on... View Details
      Keywords: Data As A Service; Monetization; Pricing; Business Startups; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior; Analysis; Business Model; Health Pandemics; Information Industry; United States
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      Nanda, Ramana, Abhishek Nagaraj, and Allison Ciechanover. "SafeGraph: Selling Data as a Service." Harvard Business School Case 821-082, February 2021. (Revised May 2021.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      The Health Costs of Cost-Sharing

      By: Amitabh Chandra, Evan Flack and Ziad Obermeyer
      We use the design of Medicare’s prescription drug benefit program to demonstrate three facts about the health consequences of cost-sharing. First, we show that an as-if-random increase of 33.6% in out-of-pocket price (11.0 percentage points (p.p.) change in... View Details
      Keywords: Cost-sharing; Impact; Health Care and Treatment; Insurance; Health; Consumer Behavior
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      Chandra, Amitabh, Evan Flack, and Ziad Obermeyer. "The Health Costs of Cost-Sharing." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28439, February 2021.
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