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- 2025
- Working Paper
Turning Away from the State: Trade Shocks and Informal Insurance in Brazil
By: Paula Rettl
How does economic globalization affect vote choices? Conventional wisdom holds that voters who lose from economic integration support parties that propose expanding the welfare state. However, in the Global South, where the state is frequently weak or under-resourced,... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Causes and Extent of Increasing Partisan Segregation in the U.S. – Evidence from Migration Patterns of 212 Million Voters
By: Jacob R. Brown, Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons and Emilie Sartre
Using data on the residential location and migration for every voter in U.S. states recording partisan registration between 2008–2020, we find that residential segregation between Democrats and Republicans has increased year over year at all geographic levels, from... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections
By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Voting Rules, Turnout, and Economic Policies
By: Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons and Jérôme Schäfer
In recent years, voter ID laws and convenience voting have generated heated partisan debates. To shed light on these policy issues, we survey the recent evidence on the institutional determinants and effects of voter turnout and broaden the perspective beyond the most... View Details
- August 2024 (Revised October 2024)
- Background Note
Brief Note on U.S. Political Parties and the Presidential Nominating Process (2024)
By: Robert F. White
This note gives a brief overview of the major U.S. political parties and how they nominate presidential candidates. View Details
- April 2024
- Article
East-Central Europe: The Young and the Far-Right
By: Laura Jakli
East-Central Europe’s young adults are at an ideological crossroads. They are significantly more progressive on issues of gender equality and gay rights than prior generations. However, their social progressivism is not wholesale. 18–30 year olds in the European... View Details
- March 2024
- Article
The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics?
By: Alberto Alesina and Marco Tabellini
We review the growing literature on the political economy of immigration. First, we discuss the effects of immigration on a wide range of political and social outcomes. The existing evidence suggests that immigrants often, but not always, trigger backlash, increasing... View Details
- 2024
- Report
Overcoming Barriers to Resolving Gaza and Beyond
As of early January 2024, discussion of the Gaza war heavily focuses on its humanitarian costs, cease fire possibilities, hostage prospects, and “day after” options. Yet what longer-term strategy guides actions on these vital issues while offering a more positive... View Details
- 2024
- Case
Christiana Figueres and the Paris Climate Negotiations (A)
By: James K. Sebenius, Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro and Mina Subramanian
This three-part, stop action case study, structured for classroom discussion, centers on Harvard’s Program on Negotiation 2022 Great Negotiator, Christiana Figueres, and her efforts as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change... View Details
- 2024
- Case
Christiana Figueres and the Paris Climate Negotiations (B)
By: James K. Sebenius, Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro and Mina Subramanian
This three-part, stop action case study, structured for classroom discussion, centers on Harvard’s Program on Negotiation 2022 Great Negotiator, Christiana Figueres, and her efforts as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change... View Details
- 2024
- Case
Christiana Figueres and the Paris Climate Negotiations: Figueres the Negotiator (C)
By: James K. Sebenius, Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro and Mina Subramanian
This three-part, stop action case study, structured for classroom discussion, centers on Harvard’s Program on Negotiation 2022 Great Negotiator, Christiana Figueres, and her efforts as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change... View Details
- October 2023
- Article
Coordination and Bandwagon Effects: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates
By: Riako Granzier, Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
Candidates’ placements in polls or past elections can be powerful coordination devices for both parties and voters. Using a regression discontinuity design in French elections, we show that candidates who place first by only a small margin in the first round are more... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Effect of Childhood Environment on Political Behavior: Evidence from Young U.S. Movers, 1992–2021
By: Jacob R. Brown, Enrico Cantoni, Sahil Chinoy, Martin Koenen and Vincent Pons
We ask how childhood environment shapes political behavior. We measure young voters’ participation and party affiliation in nationally comprehensive voter files and reconstruct their childhood location histories based on their parents’ addresses. We compare outcomes of... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Do Third-Party Guarantors Reassure Foot Soldiers?
By: Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Michael Weintraub, Leopoldo Fergusson, Juana Catalina Garcia Duque and Laia Balcells
Since the end of the Cold War, international third parties such as the United Nations (UN) have become frequent guarantors of peace agreements. Existing studies document that third parties provide assurances that help maintain peace, yet these studies nearly... View Details
- 2023
- Book
Suharto's Cold War: Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and the World
By: Mattias Fibiger
After the murder of senior generals in the Indonesian army by elements of the country's communist party in 1965, General Suharto orchestrated the mass killing of some half a million leftists and fellow travelers. But his ambitions spanned far beyond perpetrating a... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Anti-Political-Establishment Citizens: An In-Depth Study from Two Latin American Countries
By: Loreto Cox and Natalia Garbiras-Diaz
Building on citizens’ animosity towards politicians, anti-establishment parties and
candidates have achieved significant electoral success. While recent studies examine
the supply-side, we know little about what drives citizens’ anti-establishment sentiments and how... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Party and Firm
By: Joris Mueller, Jaya Y. Wen and Cheryl Wu
This project documents the rise of the Chinese Communist Party’s influence on
firms in China over the last decade. We propose novel quantitative measures of Party
influence and present recent trends in those measures. We corroborate qualitative work
and find a sharp... View Details
- 2023
- Book
The State and Capitalism in China
By: Meg Rithmire, Margaret M. Pearson and Kellee S. Tsai
This element explains China's political economic evolution from state socialist economy to a reform era state capitalism model to a more politicized, risk management approach we call "party-state capitalism." We emphasize the internal and external sources of perceived... View Details
- Article
Do Citizens’ Preferences Matter? Shaping Legislator Attitudes Towards Peace Agreements
By: Miguel García-Sánchez, Aila M. Matanock and Natalia Garbiras-Díaz
To what extent are legislators, responsible for the implementation of many peace agreements, responsive to citizens’ preferences? Examining the 2016 Colombian peace agreement, we embed an experiment in the 2019 wave of a survey of all the members of Congress. We inform... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Change We Can’t Believe In: Distrust of Political Converts
By: Julian J. Zlatev, Amos Schurr and Nir Halevy
We propose and test three hypotheses regarding how people respond to political converts— individuals who switch their voting from one political party to another. Across two experiments, using behavioral and attitudinal measures of trust in two different countries, we... View Details